Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[chasfh]

19 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

I agree completely.  
 

If Harris were to trade Skubal and basically kill the forward momentum, how could it not hurt significantly the vibe the team has developed since August 2024.  That willingness to do whatever is asked of them is a huge part of why the team has played better than most expected and advanced in the playoffs 2 straight years.  You tell them, you’re not good enough so we’re going to trade away our best chance of competing in 2026 and don’t think there will be consequences?  Once that trust is broken, it’s almost impossible to get back.  We’re not just talking about Skubal the pitcher, we are talking about the entire vibe, belief, and doing whatever helps the team being affected.  It’s different even than if Skubal would get injured.  Then teams often rise up to compensate.  But if you feel the organization doesn’t believe enough in you as a group and took away your chances, that is another story altogether.

 

And don’t think it wouldn’t be a factor trying to sign guys whose top priority is winning, knowing management is willing to halt the momentum that is building for the hope that down the road, the prospects we got in return for the best pitcher in baseball may help us win.  

I think you’re right that trading Skubal would send the wrong message to the rest of the team, which could have an impact on their psyche and thus performance afterward that can’t be calculated beforehand. These guys are not mere widgets in an OOTP sim game (although that game also has a optional mechanism in it to account for the impact of the team’s actions on player psyche as well, which is part of what makes that game so, so good). Players are human beings who to varying degrees naturally allow personal issues to affect performance,

While I do agree with SoCal that the good health and luck a team experiences can help elevate them above other teams that are more talented but less lucky or healthy, an organization simply can’t plan for that circumstance to occur. Those factors have to be set aside during the planning stages as being equal among teams.

[chasfh]

16 hours ago, papalawrence said:

I'd say there is a 94% chance Skubal starts 2026 with the Tigers. The Mets aren't trading McLean, and I believe that's the type of talent Harris will need. If the Tigers are out of contention at the deadline he likely gets traded. 

As for Harris, imho he had done an excellent job establishing his vision of a culture and it's taking shape. They were an inch from the ALCS. 

I don't know how Harris is as a negotiator for trades or FA, although he seemed to do fine with Flaherty. For all the buzz, I expect a relatively low key off season. Maybe a splurge on someone like Cease, bringing back Finnegan and another BP arm or 2. Maybe a 1-yr deal for JV, although I expect him back in SF. Probably another 1-yr to a project SP.

I think a splurge on Cease would be very high-key, and I would approve.

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, ICroupier said:

Lordy, we wouldn't want to mess with the vibe of a team that completely **** the bed in a historic meltdown.

To be fair, only part of that team completely **** the bed.

Edited October 22 by chasfh

[Dan Gilmore]

And by completely, you mean: made the playoffs and won a series and took the next series to extra innings in a deciding game. Not my definition of the phrase.

[ICroupier]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

To be fair, only part of that team completely **** the bed.

Was the "part" the hitters, pitchers and coaches?

Edited October 22 by ICroupier

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, ICroupier said:

Was the "part" the hitters, pitchers and coaches?

The Avila-acquired players. See: 

 

[Sports_Freak]

7 hours ago, chasfh said:

I think a splurge on Cease would be very high-key, and I would approve.

How big of a contract for him and how many years? 4 years at $25m per?

[papalawrence]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

How big of a contract for him and how many years? 4 years at $25m per?

I would think he'll want something with an early opt-out. Likely wanting a rebound year. A couple years ago he was mentioned in the same breath as Tarik. 

[4hzglory]

14 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

I would think he'll want something with an early opt-out. Likely wanting a rebound year. A couple years ago he was mentioned in the same breath as Tarik. 

Yeah, but that was before Skubal was what he is.  I think it’s arguable who’s better of Cease or Flaherty on the market, but expect Cease to get something around 3 for $70 while Flaherty may be fortunate to get 2 for $40 if he doesn’t take the QO.

[papalawrence]

34 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Yeah, but that was before Skubal was what he is.  I think it’s arguable who’s better of Cease or Flaherty on the market, but expect Cease to get something around 3 for $70 while Flaherty may be fortunate to get 2 for $40 if he doesn’t take the QO.

I get the Flaherty comp, but Cease was CY runner-up in 2022 and was 4th in CY voting as recent as 2024. I see him landing a 2/60 type deal - similar, but slightly better than the 2/45 that Flaherty signed. He is inconsistent so I don't see any long term deals being offered. Maybe, as you say, 3/75

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, papalawrence said:

I would think he'll want something with an early opt-out. Likely wanting a rebound year. A couple years ago he was mentioned in the same breath as Tarik. 

He may have had a bad year but I bet he still gets a big multi-year offer. Some of his secondary numbers were still good from what I've read.

[Sports_Freak]

Dylan Cease;

"At surface level, Dylan Cease did not have a very successful contract year for the Padres, but his 3.56 FIP and a 29.8 percent strikeout rate that ranked third among qualified starters still paints him as an impact, frontline starter."

They predict 5 years at $125m

https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/san-diego-padres-news/padres-dylan-cease-predicted-to-end-free-agency-with-125-million-deal

 

[Tenacious D]

2 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Dylan Cease;

"At surface level, Dylan Cease did not have a very successful contract year for the Padres, but his 3.56 FIP and a 29.8 percent strikeout rate that ranked third among qualified starters still paints him as an impact, frontline starter."

They predict 5 years at $125m

https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/san-diego-padres-news/padres-dylan-cease-predicted-to-end-free-agency-with-125-million-deal

 

Would definitely make that offer.  I think he’ll get more.

[Sports_Freak]

11 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Would definitely make that offer.  I think he’ll get more.

Not from Detroit. At least, not recently.

[Tenacious D]

5 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Not from Detroit. At least, not recently.

agree on precedent, but they might approach a potential replacement for Skubal differently. Pairing those guys for a season, with some offensive improvements.

[Tiger337]

13 hours ago, chasfh said:

I think you’re right that trading Skubal would send the wrong message to the rest of the team, which could have an impact on their psyche and thus performance afterward that can’t be calculated beforehand. These guys are not mere widgets in an OOTP sim game (although that game also has a optional mechanism in it to account for the impact of the team’s actions on player psyche as well, which is part of what makes that game so, so good). Players are human beings who to varying degrees naturally allow personal issues to affect performance,

While I do agree with SoCal that the good health and luck a team experiences can help elevate them above other teams that are more talented but less lucky or healthy, an organization simply can’t plan for that circumstance to occur. Those factors have to be set aside during the planning stages as being equal among teams.

In 2024, the Tigers gave their team the message that they were giving up on the season and then they couldn't stop winning!  So, maybe they needed that message!   I don't think there is any way a fan can know the psychological impact any move will have on a team. 

Even sim teams have long streaks or slumps for no reason at all.  Last year, in a historical sim league, I got beaten by a team with an absolute **** roster.  He had no idea what he was doing.  I had the highest run differential in the entire league and didn't make playoffs. I lost so many one-run games.  What a bunch lof chokers. 😃

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

In 2024, the Tigers gave their team the message that they were giving up on the season and then they couldn't stop winning!  So, maybe they needed that message!   I don't think there is any way a fan can know the psychological impact any move will have on a team. 

Even sim teams have long streaks or slumps for no reason at all.  Last year, in a historical sim league, I got beaten by a team with an absolute **** roster.  He had no idea what he was doing.  I had the highest run differential in the entire league and didn't make playoffs. I lost so many one-run games.  What a bunch lof chokers. 😃

Then maybe we should trade all our good players and pitchers for bags of balls and give up on 2026 so we can finally win our ring!

Tell me about sim team slumps … 😩

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Would definitely make that offer.  I think he’ll get more.

I don’t know if he does. He is up and down and his control issues sometimes costs him. That said, I’d be willing to suppose a five-year deal if Harris thinks we have a way to tweak his approach to bring those control issues into line.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

 

 

[chasfh]

lol jim bowden

[RatkoVarda]

https://nypost.com/2025/10/29/sports/tigers-tarik-skubal-will-have-to-bridge-massive-contract-offer-gap/

this story is hard to believe, that the Tigers offered Skubal less than 80M over 4 years. there's no way to do that math. I cannot see how this is accurate in any way.

if that's 2024-2027 it would be

24 10

25 20

26 20?

27 25?

if that was 2025-2027 it would be

25 18?

26 20?

27 20?

28 20?

i think there is some truth to the idea that Boras regularly uses Heyman to leak all sorts of nonsense; if so, then Boras is laying the groundwork for Skubal's guaranteed departure

[ewsieg]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boras is putting on some pressure.  That said, 4/80 could have been a legitimate offer last year, but not 1 year ago last year.  Prior to the 2024 season, I could see the Tigers offering this.  Get it leaked out now with a 'last year' comment to make it look like this is what the Tigers offered after he won his first CY and it definitely makes them look absurd.

[Shelton]

11 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

https://nypost.com/2025/10/29/sports/tigers-tarik-skubal-will-have-to-bridge-massive-contract-offer-gap/

this story is hard to believe, that the Tigers offered Skubal less than 80M over 4 years. there's no way to do that math. I cannot see how this is accurate in any way.

if that's 2024-2027 it would be

24 10

25 20

26 20?

27 25?

if that was 2025-2027 it would be

25 18?

26 20?

27 20?

28 20?

i think there is some truth to the idea that Boras regularly uses Heyman to leak all sorts of nonsense; if so, then Boras is laying the groundwork for Skubal's guaranteed departure

I think you’d have to really parse out what the actual “offer” was, but my guess is that it was basically a throw away offer or discussion brought about during the arbitration negotiations. It probably included various options or opt-outs. But he ended up making 10MM in arb in 2025. He’s probably in line for 20 in 2026. 
 

Not all “offers” are the same and I’m pretty sure both sides knew an actual long term contract was never going to be hammered out last offseason when the tigers still had two more arb years left and Skubal had half a billion waiting for him after 2026. 
 

maybe it was something like “we’ll guarantee you 60 over the next three years and player option for 20 in year four that we know you won’t take if you are healthy. It gets us one extra year, protects you in the case of another injury, and pays you more right now than you would get in arb, and you are still on track to his FA at 30”

 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Shelton said:

maybe it was something like “we’ll guarantee you 60 over the next three years and player option for 20 in year four that we know you won’t take if you are healthy. It gets us one extra year, protects you in the case of another injury, and pays you more right now than you would get in arb, and you are still on track to his FA at 30”

 

Which almost certainly still wasn't good enough for Skubal. That would just give him 2027 here to get terminally hurt and not get the big payday starting that year. But even without an injury, he's way more attractive at 30 than at 31, and maybe even loses more than one year off the best deal coming out at 31.

[Shelton]

21 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Which almost certainly still wasn't good enough for Skubal. That would just give him 2027 here to get terminally hurt and not get the big payday starting that year. But even without an injury, he's way more attractive at 30 than at 31, and maybe even loses more than one year off the best deal coming out at 31.

Of course not. But it’s still a good faith offer to guarantee 60 (with another 20 million parachute) when the tigers were still only on the hook for 10 heading into last year. Of course it sounds silly now, a year after he was excellent again and remained healthy. I think people severely underestimate the value to a team being able to go year to year with a SP.

 

But Heyman and others like Evan P can’t help but go hur-Dee-hur look how cheap the tigers are, when IMO the reality is that a true long term deal was never going to be on the table and this particular offer was probably more of a formality than something either side believed would be accepted given the circumstances.