Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

But the arbitrator can only choose one of the two numbers, so if the team knew Boras was asking for 30+  why not go low and try?

indeed. And the numbers aren't only for the arbitrator, they set the frame for any negotiations before the hearing. Once the numbers are public, each side has to evaluate if they think the other made the more reasonable proposal and how that affects the strength of their own position on settling before arbitration.

[RatkoVarda]

we probably could have predicted 32M as the ask as Soto has the largest pre-free agency salary ever of 31M. Boras and Skubal are both very interested in setting new price markers, first with the arbitration award, and then in free agency (for both years and total comp).

and there in no way an arbitrator decides Skubal is worth less than Price, so Skubal has already won

[Edman85]

Reading the fine print, it looks like that deal where they can open up the salary comparisons beyond the 5 year guys means the Tigers can add Skenes (league minimum) to the comparison pool.

[ToledoBrian]

10 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Petzold Source: Tarik Skubal filed at $32 million; the Tigers filed at $19 million.

So we now have arbitration $'s out in the open. So i am circling back around to my contract proposal from earlier, not knowing if either side has been negotiating or figures exchanged 😂😂.  Since it isn't my $ how about this... 8 years / 361 million $, 2026 32 M, years 2-8 47 M, maybe an opt out after year 4 or 5.  What say everyone?  I am glad all other arbitration eligible players are already signed for 2026.

[Sports_Freak]

9 hours ago, oblong said:

Remember the freak out when Mize went thru this?

Wasn't there something like a $50,000 difference in his asking and the Tigers offering? Kinda weird....50 grand is nothing to either of them....

[Edman85]

11 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Wasn't there something like a $50,000 difference in his asking and the Tigers offering? Kinda weird....50 grand is nothing to either of them....

Yeah but it is important to note the file number is not the final offer from negotiations, but instead a strategic number to try to win the arbitration case, and it is done blind. Matt Garza, I believe, once settled once the team and his agent filed the same number.

[Shelton]

3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

we probably could have predicted 32M as the ask as Soto has the largest pre-free agency salary ever of 31M. Boras and Skubal are both very interested in setting new price markers, first with the arbitration award, and then in free agency (for both years and total comp).

and there in no way an arbitrator decides Skubal is worth less than Price, so Skubal has already won

I’m sure it been said before but that’s not how it works. Their job is to pick the salary that is closest to the “true” arbitration value. So if they look at all the comps, such as Price (pitcher; a decade ago) and Soto (position player; highest arb contract), etc, and they say Tarik should get 25 (a huge raise from his last salary and the highest ever for a pitcher), then they must choose the tigers 19 million contract (6 million difference) over skubal’s 32 million contract (7 million difference).

Edited 14 hours ago by Shelton

[Shelton]

2 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Yeah but it is important to note the file number is not the final offer from negotiations, but instead a strategic number to try to win the arbitration case, and it is done blind. Matt Garza, I believe, once settled once the team and his agent filed the same number.

I think this was a very aggressive and strategic number by the tigers, knowing that boras and Skubal would almost surely submit 32 to beat the Soto number. It might work. 

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Their job is to pick the salary that is closest to the “true” arbitration value.

maybe also notable that Price's number was a settlement, not the arbitrator's pick. Do we know what numbers the two sides submitted in 2015?

[Edman85]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

maybe also notable that Price's number was a settlement, not the arbitrator's pick. Do we know what numbers the two sides submitted in 2015?

They signed before filing and never exchanged figures.

[Shelton]

17 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

maybe also notable that Price's number was a settlement, not the arbitrator's pick. Do we know what numbers the two sides submitted in 2015?

Doesn’t matter. It’s the value that they use in the comp. 

[Shelton]

It’s a fascinating case and I love it.

 

What I don’t love is that the narrative machine is already humming. Tony Paul last night was like “the tigers think that Skubal is worth only 4 million more than Cobb.” I really like how we will have the Cobb contract to reference for years to come. 
 

[Shelton]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Reading the fine print, it looks like that deal where they can open up the salary comparisons beyond the 5 year guys means the Tigers can add Skenes (league minimum) to the comparison pool.

Yeah, I don’t think the ability to use non-arb comps in the party’s remarks has as much of an effect as it would seem. It’s still a fact that Cole’s contract was a FA contract and Skenes is pre-arb. The ability to mention these non-arb deals doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be given substantial weight. 
 

It might move the needle slightly one way or the other, but the Skenes comp (or hunter brown for that matter, or any number of pre-FA cy young winners) are just as relevant. 
 

There is a lot of evidence out there, and I think the majority of it is going to point to a value below the 25.5MM midpoint needed for a tigers win. 

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Yeah, I don’t think the ability to use non-arb comps in the party’s remarks has as much of an effect as it would seem. It’s still a fact that Cole’s contract was a FA contract and Skenes is pre-arb

have to agree. Pre-arb salaries are by definition completely divorced from any connection to a player's value. It would be an odd player evaluation system that gave them any weight. But then again, what's not odd about the way baseball players are paid? 🙄

[Edman85]

Re: Skenes... requoting this from the CBA for reference.

 

Quote

Confidential Major League Salary Data.  For its confidential use, as background information, the arbitration panel will be given a tabulation showing the minimum salary in the Major Leagues and salaries for the preceding season of all players on Major League rosters as of August 31, broken down by years of Major League service. The names and Clubs of the Players concerned will appear on the tabulation. In utilizing the salary tabulation, the arbitration panel shall consider the salaries of all comparable Players and not merely the salary of a single Player or group of Players.

 

They can't point to Skenes or Brown and say "ah-ha! See? Comparison!" But if they are in the pool of comparable players, I can't see how that would hurt, even if dismissed easily for the obvious reasons.

[Tiger337]

The best part of this arbitration discussion is that it demonstrates that there are posters here that are even nerdier than me.  😉

Edited 13 hours ago by Tiger337

[Shelton]

15 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Re: Skenes... requoting this from the CBA for reference.

 

 

They can't point to Skenes or Brown and say "ah-ha! See? Comparison!" But if they are in the pool of comparable players, I can't see how that would hurt, even if dismissed easily for the obvious reasons.

Yeah, I think passan got a bit out over his skis when he focused on that wrinkle. It’s true for almost every final year arb guy after all. 

[Sports_Freak]

11 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

They settled before the arbitration hearing?

Apparently, the article i read was incorrect. It's changed today to say the other players the Tigers settled with to avoid arbitration. It does list the money offered and the money asked for Skubal. I hope he wins or they settle before any hearings. There was a time when the Tigers players never made it to arbitration...years.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-inaugural-2026-edition?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage - Tigers are 13th! WTF are we doing. Trade SKubal now. 

[Tiger337]

15 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-inaugural-2026-edition?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage - Tigers are 13th! WTF are we doing. Trade SKubal now. 

I see #1 in the AL Central.  That's gets them into the playoffs.  Once that happens, anything is possible.  

[romad1]

Pay the man goddamn it

[Tigermojo]

52 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-inaugural-2026-edition?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage - Tigers are 13th! WTF are we doing. Trade SKubal now. 

They just put LA and every east team at the top. Completely meaningless article. 

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

They just put LA and every east team at the top. Completely meaningless article. 

That too.  I don't know why people get worked up about random power rankings based on opinions.  

[buddha]

12 hours ago, Edman85 said:

But the arbitrator can only choose one of the two numbers, so if the team knew Boras was asking for 30+  why not go low and try?

if the arbiyrator has to choose one or the other, then why not offer something more reasonable given the circumstances?  if you really dont want to pay $32, then offer $25.  you can at least make the case that this would be the largest arb award for a pitcher ever and acknowledge skubal's uniqueness.

instead they basically said he's worth less than david price and told the mediator to take boras' number.

in the end it wont mean anything to whether he signs here, but it could engender some hurt feelings depending upon how sensitive skubal is.

but in reality, it seems they have resigned themselves to boras' number.

[4hzglory]

9 minutes ago, buddha said:

if the arbiyrator has to choose one or the other, then why not offer something more reasonable given the circumstances?  if you really dont want to pay $32, then offer $25.  you can at least make the case that this would be the largest arb award for a pitcher ever and acknowledge skubal's uniqueness.

instead they basically said he's worth less than david price and told the mediator to take boras' number.

in the end it wont mean anything to whether he signs here, but it could engender some hurt feelings depending upon how sensitive skubal is.

but in reality, it seems they have resigned themselves to boras' number.

It's not one or the other per say.  It's is he worth $1 more or less than the mid-point of $25.5 mil.  If the formula says he's worth $25 mil, the arbitrator goes with $19 mil. If the forumula says he's worth $26 mil, they go with $32 mil.