Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Arlington]

"A legacy for me is to win a championship in the city I'm playing and that's the most important thing.  I think when you talk about legacy, that's the legacy that you want, is bringing a championship to the city."   Tony Paul quoting Tarik in today's Detroit News.

He's like the opposite of Eduardo Rodriguez who gushed about his employer and how wonderful the Midwest was for his family.  Tarik never once said Detroit or the Tigers in the discussion.  It's clear he sees himself elsewhere just like Eduardo did.   

The best way to get the team into the playoffs over each of the next 5 years would be either signing Tarik or trading him this winter.  I hate the window of opportunity mindset and love Harris for his position on it.  Going through a playoffs with a shutdown starter is desirable but championships come many different ways and getting into the playoffs regularly is the best way to get one.

The churn on this team is just beginning and the 2026 team will be more different from the 2025 team than the 2025 team was from the 2024.  We will be losing Gleyber, but probably picking up a good compensation pick.  Couldn't ask for a better FA outcome.  Keith OPS is very similar to Torres and may be a better player in 2026 than Torres will be.   Parker remains a big question mark in 2026 and Jobe will be recovering.

I worry about the aging of Greene.  He's still so damn young but he seems so old  I love  his home runs, I hate his strikeouts.  I love  his all out defensive drive.  I hate his overall defensive play.  Will he continue to improve.  Break his legs and start over or get him a running coach!

Someone among Hao, Jung and Anderson will step up next year.  Wenceel will keep popping up in the highlight reels.  I hope Carpenter will be more than a great part-time, part-time player.  Tork will be Tork and Dingler will start to get the recognition he deserves.  In 2027, the golden boys in Erie and Jacob's return for a full season will generate a lot of eager anticipation.  I doubt Tarik will be a part of that. 

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

 

It was widely reported by national beat writers, including Olney, that Avila made the offer to Correa, and this entire debate is predicated on the fact of that. If you’re going to cast doubt on whether it even happened, or whether it was fake news instead, then we really have nothing more to debate here.

The debate is about whether it's OK for a GM to offer a player less than what he says he wants?  I think it is because nobody really knows what kind of offers he is getting except for the teams making the offers.  It was widely reported that Bregman wanted an 8-year deal worth 200 million last year, but it was also reported that Harris offered him 6 years 170.  Was that OK?  

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The debate is about whether it's OK for a GM to offer a player less than what he says he wants?

The debate is about whether Avila knew Correa would turn down the lowball offer. I think Avila knew.

[lordstanley]

The Skubal “trade” is using some of the money you would have needed to sign him to instead sign two good players in the 2026-2027 offseason. In the meantime you hope the Tigers can achieve post season success in 2025 or 2026 with Skubal as their ace. 

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

The debate is about whether Avila knew Correa would turn down the lowball offer. I think Avila knew.

That's a fair statement.  I don't know if he knew, but I don't think he made an offer just to make it look like he did something.  If that was his intention, he could have just leaked a fake offer to the media.  I don't see this as any different from Bregman last year.  

[chasfh]

58 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

That's a fair statement.  I don't know if he knew, but I don't think he made an offer just to make it look like he did something.  If that was his intention, he could have just leaked a fake offer to the media.  I don't see this as any different from Bregman last year.  

That's all I've been saying all along, and my evidence is negotiating common sense honed by years of doing it for a living. If you know your adversary has a floor and you offer them something below that, you already know they're not going to take the offer. So, why bother making the offer at all? One reason could be to appear to your constituents that you've made an effort. That's not as uncommon as some may think. 

Another reason could be you want to establish a foothold in case your adversary doesn't get the floor number they want, and then you can be in position to have your offer seen as competitive after all. But that almost never works because most people see an offer that is outside the range of their expectations as being inherently unserious, and perhaps even a little insulting. Not as insulting as if Al had offered, say, 5/100, which would have been a super obvious insult. But if your you establish a floor number and your adversary's first offer in even a closed marketplace is below that, before anyone else even has a chance to make their own offer, then why would you take it?

It's true Correa did not get end up with his $300 million contract, but he did get an offer well above that from the Giants, and that was proof of concept that he was worth that kind of money. He did end up accepting Minnesota's 3/105 because that reset the AAV for a subsequent contract. And it worked, since his second contract with the Twins included six guaranteed years of over $30MM salary, which he would not have gotten from an Avila contract. If all his club options kick in, Correa will end up with $297.1MM over 11 years, which is better than Avila's 10/275 deal would have been, although somewhat short of his $300 goal, and well short of the $350MM the Giants were willing to pay him even after the Avila offer, and before his injury reduced his overall haul.

[Tiger337]

38 minutes ago, chasfh said:

That's all I've been saying all along, and my evidence is negotiating common sense honed by years of doing it for a living. 

You were less dogmatic this time!

I can see where you'd be interested in contract negotiation if you have done it for a living.  I admit I have zero experience in contract negotiation, even my own contracts.  Thus, this an argument that I don't particularly care about.    

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

You were less dogmatic this time!  

And you were less obtuse this time! 🤣

[1984Echoes]

6 hours ago, Shelton said:

It’s going to be near impossible for another team out there to offer a return that is more valuable to the 2026 tigers than one year of Skubal plus a high comp pick.

I don't agree with this.

 

I've waffled quite a bit between hanging on to Skubal for 2026 and settling for a draft pick after he leaves... And hoping he takes us all the way next year.

Or trading him in the offseason.

I believe we will get major offers this offseason. Offers that are too hard to pass up.

This isn't all on you Shelton so others can pipe up or respond... just quotin you as the lead-in...

 

I think it's convenient for someone to say "but they're only trading for ONE YEAR of Skubal!", except... that's not how certain Organizations think. We in fact, traded Maybin & Miller and other spare parts for Miggy and then proceeded to IMMEDIATELY extend a huge contract for him. After arbitration, they signed an 8-year $152 mill extension... before his free agent season even started.

No one in here thinks that can't happen again? Dodgers? Phillies? Yankees? Etc. No one thinks they won't do the same? It doesn't even matter that it's Boras. Any one of them could easily sit down with Boras and hammer out a contract. In Spring Training 2026.

 

And with that...

After Skubal wins his second Cy Young this year...

Big offers will come in.

Here are two I guessed at on Page 3 (or 4) in here:

Dodgers Offer: Emmett Sheehan, 25 yo RH SP; Emil Morales, 18 yo RH 3B; Josue De Paula, 20 yo LH OF; Jack Dreyer, 26 yo LH RP; Alex Freeland, 24 yo SS/3B.

Phillies Offer: Andrew Painter, 22 yo RH SP; Justin Crawford, 21 yo LH CF; Orion Kerkering, 24 yo RH RP, Aidan Miller, 21 yo RH SS/3B, Mavis Graves, 21 yo LH SP (NEEDS to be converted to RP though...).

 

Those are GOOD packages. And they will set us up not only for the future (better than a 2026 comp pick), but ALSO for 2026. We have just as good a chance to win it all in 2026 with either of these returns, as we do with just Skubal.

IMO.

And Dombrowski has NO reticence to trade big name prospects... None at all. Neither do the Dodgers, who are ALL-IN chasing championships.

I think it's wrong to just dismiss offers that we will receive this offseason out of hand. Not saying you're doing that Shelton... but I think others are...

[gehringer_2]

I wonder if it would be boon to the less rich teams if baseball had a formal 'sign and trade' system like the NBA. That might help the teams losing players get better return for them because the signing team *would* know what they were getting. Of course that would probably be enough reason for the rich teams to kill any proposal in that direction.

Edited 23 hours ago by gehringer_2

[4hzglory]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't agree with this.

 

I've waffled quite a bit between hanging on to Skubal for 2026 and settling for a draft pick after he leaves... And hoping he takes us all the way next year.

Or trading him in the offseason.

I believe we will get major offers this offseason. Offers that are too hard to pass up.

This isn't all on you Shelton so others can pipe up or respond... just quotin you as the lead-in...

 

I think it's convenient for someone to say "but they're only trading for ONE YEAR of Skubal!", except... that's not how certain Organizations think. We in fact, traded Maybin & Miller and other spare parts for Miggy and then proceeded to IMMEDIATELY extend a huge contract for him. After arbitration, they signed an 8-year $152 mill extension... before his free agent season even started.

No one in here thinks that can't happen again? Dodgers? Phillies? Yankees? Etc. No one thinks they won't do the same? It doesn't even matter that it's Boras. Any one of them could easily sit down with Boras and hammer out a contract. In Spring Training 2026.

 

And with that...

After Skubal wins his second Cy Young this year...

Big offers will come in.

Here are two I guessed at on Page 3 (or 4) in here:

Dodgers Offer: Emmett Sheehan, 25 yo RH SP; Emil Morales, 18 yo RH 3B; Josue De Paula, 20 yo LH OF; Jack Dreyer, 26 yo LH RP; Alex Freeland, 24 yo SS/3B.

Phillies Offer: Andrew Painter, 22 yo RH SP; Justin Crawford, 21 yo LH CF; Orion Kerkering, 24 yo RH RP, Aidan Miller, 21 yo RH SS/3B, Mavis Graves, 21 yo LH SP (NEEDS to be converted to RP though...).

 

Those are GOOD packages. And they will set us up not only for the future (better than a 2026 comp pick), but ALSO for 2026. We have just as good a chance to win it all in 2026 with either of these returns, as we do with just Skubal.

IMO.

And Dombrowski has NO reticence to trade big name prospects... None at all. Neither do the Dodgers, who are ALL-IN chasing championships.

I think it's wrong to just dismiss offers that we will receive this offseason out of hand. Not saying you're doing that Shelton... but I think others are...

I’d be shocked if we get either package offered you mentioned-and although I’d agree they’d set us up better in the future than losing Skubal for a comp pick, I disagree that they would set us up better for a 2026 postseason run as none of those mentioned are as likely as Skubal to single handily affect a playoff series.  I keep Skubal and take my chances which also will boost the morale of the rest of the team.

[tiger2022]

I would like to see the Tigers go big in the offseason.  Maybe go after Kyle Schwarber if he hits the market.  He would help the lineup in a ridiculous way and what an upgrade over Colt Keith at DH.

Go after Kyle Tucker.

They need another big bat in the lineup

If it is going to be the last year of Skubal, try to win.

Pizza boy can charge an extra $1 or $2 for the crap he calls pizza 

[papalawrence]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

And you were less obtuse this time! 🤣

I think that's a line from Shawshank Redemption 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, papalawrence said:

I think that's a line from Shawshank Redemption 

 

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

... they would set us up better for a 2026 postseason run as none of those mentioned are as likely as Skubal to single handily affect a playoff series...

I did NOT say set us up better for 2026.

I specifically stated that we would have just as good a chance in 2026...

It's a small difference, but it's there...

Which is predicated on "it's a crapshoot in the playoffs so just get there". As in, anyone can get hot. As in... it wasn't Denny McLain of 31 wins in 1968 that won us the championship... it was Mickey Lolich. I know you know that. It might not be Skubal who wins us a championship. That's just how baseball works.

And I won't disagree with you on WANTING Skubal in 2026 because I love having dominant players and Skubal is a majot one.

But I also know that "getting hot at the right time" counts for more than just one dominant player. And I'd rather have multiple dominant or near-dominant players that set us up for both 2026 and the next 5 years rather than one dominant player and betting ALL the money on that one player/card winning everything for us.

Especially when that ONE player is a pitcher.

I prefer a huge package for Skubal... sorry.

IF there's one actually out there...

I mean, I'm just guessing there will be.

[4hzglory]

12 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

 

IF there's one actually out there...

I mean, I'm just guessing there will be.

And I don't think there will be as huge a package as you seem to think, at least not of players ready to help us immediately.  If he had 2 plus years of control, possibly, but not with 1.  The best opportunity would have been the Orioles last year and they weren't even willing to part with their top, ready prospects even though they didn't have room for everyone.

[1984Echoes]

5 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

...  The best opportunity would have been the Orioles last year and they weren't even willing to part with their top, ready prospects even though they didn't have room for everyone.

I think last year, Skubal didn't have enough history to command that package.

He missed a lot of 2023 with injury and pitched well at the end of the season.

In 2024... he hadn't won a Cy Young or anything at the trade deadline... And pitched a partial season the year before. I think aside from the Orioles normal "reticence", and even with 1.3 years left at last year's deadline... teams may have been leery of Skubal's recent health history or just weren't 100% certain about him...

But in the 2025 season: Skubal pitched well at the end of 2023. He won the CY YOUNG in 2024!!! (I'm saying this from a marketing perspective... not trying to all-CAP's everybody... the CY, or pitching at that level, is a huge selling point for a pitcher, obviously...). He pitched 192 dominant regular season innings last year and ALSO pitched just as dominant in the postseason, with 19 innings at 0.79 WHIP and 2.37 ERA. What is he doing this year? Leading the Cy Young AGAIN. IMO.. I think the track record, right now, says he's the most dominant pitcher in MLB... right now.

To your point, there are teams, probably a lot of them or most of them, who are looking at the 1 year of control and won't offer a package because he doesn't have 2 years or more of control. The Rays and Marlins can automatically be ruled out, of course, amongst others.

But I think you are ignoring the fact that certain other organizations operate on a different basis.

The Dodgers and Phillies, and sometimes Yankees and Mets, and maybe even a few others, are hell-bent on World Series Championships. you know Dombrowski is. You know that Dombrowski has no reticence whatsoever offering a package of players for a MLB player that he wants. It doesn't matter if it's Miggy, Scherzer, Fister, or anyone...

If he wants Skubal, because he thinks he can win WS Championships with him, he will go balls out with everything it takes to get him. You know he will. You know he has no problems whatsoever working with Boras.

The Dodgers? Money is no object. And what is the greatest threat to them winning WS Championships? Right now: It's the Phillies. And Brewers. And their problematic starting pitching after Yamamoto. They also will go all out to get a player they believe gives them a huge advantage towards winning championships. Including having to work with Boras. Including making a massive extension offer that satisfies Boras and Skubal and prevents him from getting to free agency (same with Dombrowski, who has a track record of doing exactly THAT!) And including giving up the prospects necessary (IMO) to block other teams from doing that and to put themselves in a position to work with Boras on an extension and getting it done.

So... I could be completely full of it and my little "Godfather package theory"...

But we'll see what happens this offseason.

I won't be surprised if...

 

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by 1984Echoes

[4hzglory]

22 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I think last year, Skubal didn't have enough history to command that package.

He missed a lot of 2023 with injury and pitched well at the end of the season.

In 2024... he hadn't won a Cy Young or anything at the trade deadline... And pitched a partial season the year before. I think aside from the Orioles normal "reticence", and even with 1.3 years left at last year's deadline... teams may have been leery of Skubal's recent health history or just weren't 100% certain about him...

But in the 2025 season: Skubal pitched well at the end of 2023. He won the CY YOUNG in 2024!!! (I'm saying this from a marketing perspective... not trying to all-CAP's everybody... the CY, or pitching at that level, is a huge selling point for a pitcher, obviously...). He pitched 192 dominant regular season innings last year and ALSO pitched just as dominant in the postseason, with 19 innings at 0.79 WHIP and 2.37 ERA. What is he doing this year? Leading the Cy Young AGAIN. IMO.. I think the track record, right now, says he's the most dominant pitcher in MLB... right now.

To your point, there are teams, probably a lot of them or most of them, who are looking at the 1 year of control and won't offer a package because he doesn't have 2 years or more of control. The Rays and Marlins can automatically be ruled out, of course, amongst others.

But I think you are ignoring the fact that certain other organizations operate on a different basis.

The Dodgers and Phillies, and sometimes Yankees and Mets, and maybe even a few others, are hell-bent on World Series Championships. you know Dombrowski is. You know that Dombrowski has no reticence whatsoever offering a package of players for a MLB player that he wants. It doesn't matter if it's Miggy, Scherzer, Fister, or anyone...

If he wants Skubal, because he thinks he can win WS Championships with him, he will go balls out with everything it takes to get him. You know he will. You know he has no problems whatsoever working with Boras.

The Dodgers? Money is no object. And what is the greatest threat to them winning WS Championships? Right now: It's the Phillies. And Brewers. And their problematic starting pitching after Yamamoto. They also will go all out to get a player they believe gives them a huge advantage towards winning championships. Including having to work with Boras. Including making a massive extension offer that satisfies Boras and Skubal and prevents him from getting to free agency (same with Dombrowski, who has a track record of doing exactly THAT!) And including giving up the prospects necessary (IMO) to block other teams from doing that and to put themselves in a position to work with Boras on an extension and getting it done.

So... I could be completely full of it and my little "Godfather package theory"...

But we'll see what happens this offseason.

I won't be surprised if...

 

 

 

 

Look at the packages the Padres took for Soto and the Brewers took for Burnes.  They aren't close to the packages you proposed (which I wouldn't take either for the reasons I said earlier).  If those were the best offers out there - and Soto was a similar position player as Skubal was a pitcher, then I don't think teams are going to offer what you think.  It was mentioned above, but the Padres basically ended up with a solid starter.  The Brewers so far have ended up with maybe average players.  If trying to get players that are ready to contribute, I believe those are more likely the level we would be getting for 1 year of Skubal.

Personally, I'd rather have the year of Skubal (in a year we are going for it) and the comp pick than get Michael King, who is a solid #2-3 starter under multiple years of control.  When Harris is drafting and developing like we are, the comp pick has considerable upside - see where McGonigle was drafted.

[papalawrence]

I think Harris will only trade Skubal for an incredible package. The Tigers should be in contention again next season, and it also makes sense to keep Skubal and take the draft pick. We'll find out soon enough.