Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[SoCalTiger]

If the new CBA limits years then someone will offer Skubal 60 million a year. The limit has to be total salaries and that's a cap and it's kryptonite for a deal. Maybe there can be added bonuses for losing free agents. Perhaps multiple draft picks. Maybe the team signing the highest contract loses a player off their 40 to the team that lost the player ? Or both. I think all is possible with the union provided salaries are not overly suppressed or capped. 

[Witz57]

I'd like to see teams get a slot money bonus based on total contract value of free agents lost.

Say you lose players who sign 500 million in contacts. Maybe you get 1% of that and you can spread between draft and international signings. 

Maybe it's reduced by the team's own spending. So if you lose a 500m player and sign a 300m player it's calculated off the difference.

If you want to tweak it further, there could be a minimum amount you don't get the difference for. So it's calculated after say the first 50m. So if a team spends zero-50m and loses a 500m guy they get the bonus for the 450 million. This would encourage a minimal level of FA spending you don't "lose" extra bonus money for.

 

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

I would not sign him for 10 years...six is as far as I would want to go

Boras would never allow Skubal to sign for 6 years. 8 years maybe?

[Stormin]

1 hour ago, Longgone said:

Trading a 30 year old pitcher, who will require a long term, mega contract, for a haul of young talent, and then using that financial wherewithal to invest in other needs, diversifying your risk, makes sense.

If the return is Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron, and Jake Rogers (Return for JV) or DL Hall, Joey Ortiz, and a draft pick (Brewers return for Corbin Burns), no Thank you. Or maybe Jhony Brito, Kyle Higashioka, Drew Thorpe, Rangy Vasquez, and one good year of Michael King for Trent Grisham and Juan Soto?  Prospect deals are crap shoots.   It is not uncommon that a haul of prospects ends up being maybe one average MLB player.

If Chris Ilitch learned anything from his father, I hope it is that "fans come to see the stars."   Tarik Skubal is the only real star the Tigers have right now.  Every game he pitches, for the rest of his career in Detroit, will have above average attendance.   A 1.0 to 2.0 war MLB left handed starter is getting over $20 million AAV these days.  I think Skubal has at least a few above average seasons ahead of him.

When it comes to trades, free agent contracts, and Tigers in 2026, the lowest risk projection might be that Skubal  will have another good year and help the Tigers compete in 2026.   That is why I won't be upset even if the Tigers ride it out, and just let Skubal pitch in 2026.

Edited 5 hours ago by Stormin

[papalawrence]

18 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Boras would never allow Skubal to sign for 6 years. 8 years maybe?

I think Boras would consider 8/350. Maybe add vesting options for years 9 and 10. If he is still producing at that point he gets rewarded

[Sports_Freak]

4 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

I think Boras would consider 8/350. Maybe add vesting options for years 9 and 10. If he is still producing at that point he gets rewarded

Maybe. I thought i heard Slubal wanted to break the $400 million dollar threshold. If so, 8 @ $50M per season would get it done.

[gehringer_2]

53 minutes ago, Witz57 said:

I'd like to see teams get a slot money bonus based on total contract value of free agents lost.

Say you lose players who sign 500 million in contacts. Maybe you get 1% of that and you can spread between draft and international signings. 

Maybe it's reduced by the team's own spending. So if you lose a 500m player and sign a 300m player it's calculated off the difference.

If you want to tweak it further, there could be a minimum amount you don't get the difference for. So it's calculated after say the first 50m. So if a team spends zero-50m and loses a 500m guy they get the bonus for the 450 million. This would encourage a minimal level of FA spending you don't "lose" extra bonus money for.

 

I think it only works if you have some way to force teams to spend it on their own FAs, otherwise the money just disappears into their budget like current lux tax payments and does nothing to insure teams are actually using it to keep players.

[Longgone]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think it only works if you have some way to force teams to spend it on their own FAs, otherwise the money just disappears into their budget like current lux tax payments and does nothing to insure teams are actually using it to keep players.

For heavens sake, just share equally all broadcast revenues, you don't even need the CBA to do that. Without the gross revenue imbalance, more teams will compete for free agents.

[Tigermojo]

I think 8/350 is mentioned because it would be a record total and yearly value for a pitcher.

[Witz57]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think it only works if you have some way to force teams to spend it on their own FAs, otherwise the money just disappears into their budget like current lux tax payments and does nothing to insure teams are actually using it to keep players.

I don't think it should be a financial transfer, just the ability to spend additional slot money. Sorry if that didn't come across.

[papalawrence]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Maybe. I thought i heard Slubal wanted to break the $400 million dollar threshold. If so, 8 @ $50M per season would get it done.

Last week Skubal was on foul territory and he said his camp never mentioned 400 million. 8/350 and with 2 vesting years potentially that would be 10/ 437

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Longgone said:

For heavens sake, just share equally all broadcast revenues, you don't even need the CBA to do that. Without the gross revenue imbalance, more teams will compete for free agents.

certainly the optimum system to produce a balanced league, but unfortunately also the least likely outcome possible in the current reality.

If you are NY or LA your message to the other owners is "go find your own 15 million local fans"

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[RatkoVarda]

biggest domestic FA pitching contract: Cole signed for 9/324 (AAV 36M)

biggest international FA pitching contract: Yamamoto 12/325 (AAV 27.3M)

no including Ohtani

so Skubal needs to clear 325 total value and 36AAV to reset pitching market for Skenes

10/370 = one more year than Cole; highest AAV; highest total comp

[papalawrence]

Shorter contracts, but JV and Max had contracts with 43 aav. That's why I think 8/350 seems more in line with what he will get. 

[gehringer_2]

31 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

Shorter contracts, but JV and Max had contracts with 43 aav. That's why I think 8/350 seems more in line with what he will get. 

and there has probably been 7-10% devaluation of the dollar since those were signed.