Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

Boras does not rep Valdez

Boras is Satan. He reps everybody.

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

I wonder how long they have been sitting on this deal.  It wasn’t coincidence that it was announced shortly after the arbitration hearing ended.   I’m sure it would’ve come up in Skubal’s argument had the Tigers done this prior. 

There has been a lot of smoke around other teams lately, which makes me think this hasn't really been sat on long.

[Tigermojo]

8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Boras is Satan. He reps everybody.

I think it's because I've read his name about a million times this year.

[buddha]

3 hours ago, Nate7474 said:

It’s not about Skubal. It’s about every other pitcher after him entering arbitration. If players are going to be that expensive it essentially means small market teams have to try and sign and buy out years earlier or trade them sooner. 

1) i dont think so.

2) if so, then sell the team if you think that prohibits you from competing.

3) they wont sell the team because they still make money.

[buddha]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

Thank you.

Arbitration is a process.  Skubal knows this.  Boras knows this.  Nobody is going to be "pissed" when the result is known.  Skubal might be "bummed" for the lost money but he knows the game.

honestly, none of us know what skubal feels.

[tiger2022]

I seriously don't understand the hate for Skubal and Boras.  They are trying to make as much money as they can.  Everyone on here claims its a business, but then get angry because a player is treating baseball as a business to try and increase their wealth.  Do you get mad at yourself for trying to make more money at your job?  Or are you more "I would prefer the owner/executives keep that money instead"

[Sports_Freak]

29 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The Tigers are not going to trade themselves out of being clear division favorites now by dumping Skubal just because they're big mad at him and money.

Not talking about you, but I am just knocked out by how bad some people just don't want Skubal on this team anymore.

I don't know what the TV revenue is going to look like for the Tigers and several other teams. Is losing FDS and going to a different TV source going to cost them big money? It could put a lot of teams in financial trouble. But, these guys are billionaires for a reason, they know to avoid losses.

[oblong]

10 minutes ago, buddha said:

honestly, none of us know what skubal feels.

I think it's fair to assume that having Boras as an agent and being a player rep that we do have some inisght.  He's talked about the business side and having a responsibility.  This arbitration hearing doesn't affect what he'll get as a free agent.  The Tigers offer to him and to Valdez have nothing to do with each other, other than general budgetary reasons.  But they aren't making a statement about what they value or think they are "worth".

 

[Jason_R]

Boras is doing his job. I don't begrudge Skubal trying to get the bag. 

It does seem pretty clear that Skubal likes it in Detroit, and it seems pretty clear Detroit likes Skubal. Ilitch has demonstrated he will pay a pitcher ~$40 million a year. He hasn't demonstrated he will do it for ten years.

Maybe a new CBA would change his calculations. But I understand not wanting to issue a contract that breaks records for dollars or term in the last year of the CBA when the owners are banging the drum for a salary cap. 

[Sports_Freak]

5 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

I seriously don't understand the hate for Skubal and Boras.  They are trying to make as much money as they can.  Everyone on here claims its a business, but then get angry because a player is treating baseball as a business to try and increase their wealth.  Do you get mad at yourself for trying to make more money at your job?  Or are you more "I would prefer the owner/executives keep that money instead"

Owners, in just about every business, try to keep overhead down. That includes workers pay. The problem with sports is quality players can help a team be more successful, increasing their profits. Some owners don't realize that. You gotta spend money to make money. Losing Skubal may keep fans away in droves, as well as a huge decrease in TV viewership, which could cause advertising revenue to dry up. Skubal starts are usually must watch TV for even the most casual fans.

[Longgone]

31 minutes ago, buddha said:

1) i dont think so.

2) if so, then sell the team if you think that prohibits you from competing.

3) they wont sell the team because they still make money.

The current system was fairly negotiated and is based on the premise that teams could limit player costs prior to players earning free agency. If that system is breached, and the Skubal case is an attempt to drastically raise the bar for future arbitration cases, then the system is broken.

[RedRamage]

48 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The Tigers are not going to trade themselves out of being clear division favorites now by dumping Skubal just because they're big mad at him and money.

Totally agree. I'm talking more like if they were given an offer they couldn't refuse. 

But, I don't see teams given that offer either. It's possible if the Tiger's win that there may be some more teams willing to consider better offers, but I doubt there are too many out there that are willing to give up a lot of talent for 1 year of Skubal.

It's also possible that if the Tigers lose they'd be winning to take less in return for Skubal to avoid having to pay $32M, but I also serious doubt.

All in all I think whatever ruling comes out the likelihood of Skubal being traded will increase by the staggering amount of 0.25%

 

[Longgone]

14 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Owners, in just about every business, try to keep overhead down. That includes workers pay. The problem with sports is quality players can help a team be more successful, increasing their profits. Some owners don't realize that. You gotta spend money to make money. Losing Skubal may keep fans away in droves, as well as a huge decrease in TV viewership, which could cause advertising revenue to dry up. Skubal starts are usually must watch TV for even the most casual fans.

Then fix the huge competitive economic disparity between franchises.

[Shinzaki]

It's not that I don't want Skubal on the team...In a vacuum I do.  But a season if 'is he gonna resign' speculation ain't a vaccum

[tiger2022]

1 hour ago, Longgone said:

Then fix the huge competitive economic disparity between franchises.

Even if they did there will still be owners like Pittsburgh thatvw9n't spend anythijg

[Arlington]

I don't think the Tigers "low balled" Skubal.  Both sides perceive that he is worth about $25.5 million.  It's unusual to see a plus/minus 25% in either direction.   If the game is how I understand it if Tigers said $15 Skubal would have gone up to $36.  The current $13 million gap represent a good position player, or a couple of talented bullpen pitchers.  The lower amount would really show up if Skubal is traded afterwards.  A $19 million Skubal would be worth a significant addition to any trade over what a $32 million Skubal would bring.  A $19 million Skubal would also make it a little easier for the Tigers to extend the contract since they would be in the unique position of being able to throw in more for this year.  If Skubal looks to go into free agency, he accepts less money this year.  I think that makes an extension more appealing to $19 million Skubal than it would to $32 million Skubal.  
 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, RedRamage said:

Totally agree. I'm talking more like if they were given an offer they couldn't refuse. 

But, I don't see teams given that offer either. It's possible if the Tiger's win that there may be some more teams willing to consider better offers, but I doubt there are too many out there that are willing to give up a lot of talent for 1 year of Skubal.

It's also possible that if the Tigers lose they'd be winning to take less in return for Skubal to avoid having to pay $32M, but I also serious doubt.

All in all I think whatever ruling comes out the likelihood of Skubal being traded will increase by the staggering amount of 0.25%

 

I would bet that the Tigers have heard a lot of offers that they could refuse, so I don't know what an offer they can't refuse would even look like. All I am pretty sure of is that a single year of Skubal isn't not going to lead any team to completely empty out the top of their farm system for him. He ain't going anywhere.

I see much of the national media are trying to make the Tigers look like jackwagons for spending $38.5MM per year for Valdez while blanching at paying $32MM for Skubal. At least one story I read is, in fact, specifically trying to rile up us Tiger fans over this idea. But I promise you the Tigers would have been pleased to pay $50MM for three years, or even four years, for Skubal to stick around.

The Valdez signing has me pretty much resigned to this being Skubal's final year here.

 

[Sports_Freak]

24 minutes ago, Arlington said:

I don't think the Tigers "low balled" Skubal.  Both sides perceive that he is worth about $25.5 million.  It's unusual to see a plus/minus 25% in either direction.   If the game is how I understand it if Tigers said $15 Skubal would have gone up to $36.  The current $13 million gap represent a good position player, or a couple of talented bullpen pitchers.  The lower amount would really show up if Skubal is traded afterwards.  A $19 million Skubal would be worth a significant addition to any trade over what a $32 million Skubal would bring.  A $19 million Skubal would also make it a little easier for the Tigers to extend the contract since they would be in the unique position of being able to throw in more for this year.  If Skubal looks to go into free agency, he accepts less money this year.  I think that makes an extension more appealing to $19 million Skubal than it would to $32 million Skubal.  
 

Boras usually doesn't allow his clients to extend, he wants them to go into free agency. It would all depend on what Skubal wants. But if Takik tells Boras to get something done with Detroit, why would he even have Boras as an agent? And will the Tigers use of arbitration turn Skubal off enough to even refuse to listen to a Tigers offer? I really don't like money issues causing my favorite team to lose excellent players. The entire situation, no matter who's side we're on, sucks 

[Arlington]

With Mize and Flaherty being FAs next year, trading Skubal for a contributing starter who is under control for a few years, and some solid prospects makes the most sense now.  

[Sports_Freak]

49 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

Even if they did there will still be owners like Pittsburgh thatvw9n't spend anythijg

A cap floor would protect against that. At least, in theory. 

[Longgone]

51 minutes ago, Arlington said:

I don't think the Tigers "low balled" Skubal.  Both sides perceive that he is worth about $25.5 million.  It's unusual to see a plus/minus 25% in either direction.   If the game is how I understand it if Tigers said $15 Skubal would have gone up to $36.  The current $13 million gap represent a good position player, or a couple of talented bullpen pitchers.  The lower amount would really show up if Skubal is traded afterwards.  A $19 million Skubal would be worth a significant addition to any trade over what a $32 million Skubal would bring.  A $19 million Skubal would also make it a little easier for the Tigers to extend the contract since they would be in the unique position of being able to throw in more for this year.  If Skubal looks to go into free agency, he accepts less money this year.  I think that makes an extension more appealing to $19 million Skubal than it would to $32 million Skubal.  
 

Skubal is not going to extend.

Arbitration is not necessarily based on what a player is "worth", it is based more on precedent, and what is reasonable and fair, regarding wage progression, compared to others in a similar situation who have gone before.

Edited 28 minutes ago by Longgone

[Stormin]

14 minutes ago, Arlington said:

With Mize and Flaherty being FAs next year, trading Skubal for a contributing starter who is under control for a few years, and some solid prospects makes the most sense now.  

The counter argument is win now with Skubal, Valdez, Mize, and Flaherty in the rotation.   Worry about 2027 next off-season.  

[Arlington]

3 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Skubal is not going to extend.

Arbitration is not necessarily based on what a player is "worth", it is based more on precedent, and what is reasonable and fair compared to others in a similar situation who have gone before.

Yes, and obviously both sides see his cost, his value, his worth, at $25.5 give or take.  

[Jason_R]

It has already seemed likely that this would be Skubal’s last year in Detroit. I don’t think this signing changes things one way or the other. And I think Harris has set the team up as well as possible for whatever scenario. 

He has secured a top of the rotation starter who will help the team remain competitive this season with Skubal, and in the future if Skubal leaves. He has demonstrated to Skubal and everyone else that the franchise is not afraid to spend money (even if they are wary of spending term). The team can still negotiate with Skubal. If they happen to come to an agreement, Valdez is eminently tradeable, not for the haul they are seeking for Skubal but for a solid return. 

Skubal was going to market one way or another. As far as I can tell, Harris is playing this hand as well as possible. 

[Longgone]

17 minutes ago, Arlington said:

Yes, and obviously both sides see his cost, his value, his worth, at $25.5 give or take.  

They don't consider "worth". The Tigers are presenting that a 90% salary increase is appropriate based on past history in arbitration. Boras is saying that more than tripling his salary can be justified in this case.