2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[4hzglory]

Just now, 4hzglory said:

He is the one almost everyone believes Harris was referring to at his press conference and it fits as he was our #10 prospect (Seattle gave up their 9, 11, and 17 for him)

If you read the article Edman posted, Woodbury describes it.  Cody from the Athletic does as well.  

[Sports_Freak]

19 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

He is the one almost everyone believes Harris was referring to at his press conference and it fits as he was our #10 prospect (Seattle gave up their 9, 11, and 17 for him)

Oh, so it's just speculation. I thought you had a link to somebody in the know. If thats the case, I'm glad he didn't do it. If Melton stays healthy, he could be very good. 

[4hzglory]

2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Oh, so it's just speculation. I thought you had a link to somebody in the know. If thats the case, I'm glad he didn't do it. If Melton stays healthy, he could be very good. 

Like Edman said, we know it was a pitcher so it was either Melton or Montero and is much more likely it was Melton.

[Sports_Freak]

Suarez tied a career high with 49 home runs. He stated he wanted to come to Detroit. If the only deal we could have made was for Melton, I'm really glad Harris didn't do it. But...since Suarez is a free agent, you think Scott will offer him a contract? A lot of power but not a lot of contact. Close to 200 strikeouts last year and a high strikeout rate just about every season. It may not be a popular opinion, but I would pass on him.

[chasfh]

On 10/13/2025 at 5:06 PM, Jason_R said:

Maybe. But maybe (and probably) Boras has already told them, “We are going to market no matter what you offer.” That’s his job and he’s good at it. 

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Boras told Harris, "sure, kid, go ahead and make us an offer now, we're listening" in order to get a benchmark to go to the market with, and Harris declined.

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Boras told Harris, "sure, kid, go ahead and make us an offer now, we're listening" in order to get a benchmark to go to the market with, and Harris declined.

I can imagine it goes something like this. The Tigers ask Skubal for the courtesy being able to match, Boras says - go fly a kite, make us an offer now. The Tigers eventually make one for a max AAV but less term than Skubal wants and it's over when the Tigers are outbid on term. I can see C.I. being will to make him the highest paid pitcher - and maybe by a decent margin *while* he's still pitching, but I don't see Chris being willing to pay another player >$40M/yr to play golf for 3 or 4 years. Just don't.

Edited October 15 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

22 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Harris seems like a smart guy, but he throws around a lot of terminology in interviews which doesn't necessarily mean a lot  He has talking about control the zone for years and I don't really see the Tigers doing that.  I would have liked to hear Hinch talk more.  

Maybe it's a talent issue and not a philosophy or coaching issue. We're still working with a lot of Avila's signs, some of whom (a) are not inherently good talent fits for the eventual Harris peak team we will evolve to, and (b) were drafted and initially developed a under completely different hitting philosophy and structure than Harris has brought to bear in his time with the organization. I think once this team becomes primarily a Harris team, we will see his philosophy of controlling the plate really come into view.

Example: Of the 20 hitters who logged plate appearances this year, 66% of the plate appearances were by Avila signs and 34% were by Harris signs. In aggregate, the Avila signs drew walks in 7.4% of their plate trips; Harris signs drew walks in 10.5% of theirs. That's the difference between a team of Avila signs ranking 28th in the majors in walk rate versus a team of Harris signs ranking 1st.

Same thing with strikeouts: The Avila team strikes out at a 25.5% clip, which would rank them 28th, versus the Harris team at 20.5%, which would rank them 6th.

That tells me that the philosophy is working—we just have to get the right players on board to execute it.

Edited October 15 by chasfh

[papalawrence]

There was no way Harris would have traded Melton for Suarez. Their farm pitching seems thin as it is. 

[holygoat]

2 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

He is the one almost everyone believes Harris was referring to at his press conference and it fits as he was our #10 prospect (Seattle gave up their 9, 11, and 17 for him)

He's literally the only player Harris could possibly have been talking about. There's no reading between the lines -- he was clearly talking about Melton.

[oblong]

I love the pushback from Harris.  "We probably would have gotten a good grade at the deadline for it".   

Reminds me of when DD harshly defended his Fister for Robbie Ray trade that time.  He had his papers with him showing how much they wanted him prior to the deal.

[Nate7474]

Does any one have a good resource for tracking who needs to be added to the 40 this year to protect from rule 5? I thought there use to be a good resource that was shared here. 

Just off the top of my head it seems there might be some hard choices this year. I have to imagine we are going to see a few minor trades this offseason to try and keep from losing players for free. 

[Tiger337]

At the time, I was hoping that the Tigers would trade for two relievers with good track records.  They got one in Finnegan, but I wish they got another.  I didn't think the starters and hitters available were going to be worth what they would cost.  Suarez is slump prone, so I wasn't that excited about two months of him.  Morton and Paddack were just prayers and I didn't see them as upgrades over Montero and Melton.  It did make sense to move Melton to the bullpen given his innings limit.  

[4hzglory]

7 minutes ago, Nate7474 said:

Does any one have a good resource for tracking who needs to be added to the 40 this year to protect from rule 5? I thought there use to be a good resource that was shared here. 

Just off the top of my head it seems there might be some hard choices this year. I have to imagine we are going to see a few minor trades this offseason to try and keep from losing players for free. 

I know Edman has a spreadsheet.

[4hzglory]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

At the time, I was hoping that the Tigers would trade for two relievers with good track records.  They got one in Finnegan, but I wish they got another.  I didn't think the starters and hitters available were going to be worth what they would cost.  Suarez is slump prone, so I wasn't that excited about two months of him.  Morton and Paddack were just prayers and I didn't see them as upgrades over Montero and Melton.  It did make sense to move Melton to the bullpen given his innings limit.  

This lines up with what I was hoping for.  I was hoping for Bednar or Griffin Jax.  In the end, Finnegan did better than I could have imagined, but adding one of them also would have helped last Friday.

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

I know Edman has a spreadsheet.

Yes. I think he has posted a link to it here before but I won't presume to - just PM him for it.

[Tiger337]

32 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

I know Edman has a spreadsheet.

You can get rule 5 eligibles on Fangraphs too, but they don't quite match.  I know Edman tends to update his list frequently, so I use that one.  Eduardo Valencia is on fangraphs but not Edman's list.  Edman lists him as a minor league free agent which I assume is why he is not eligible for R5.  

[Edman85]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

You can get rule 5 eligibles on Fangraphs too, but they don't quite match.  I know Edman tends to update his list frequently, so I use that one.  Eduardo Valencia is on fangraphs but not Edman's list.  Edman lists him as a minor league free agent which I assume is why he is not eligible for R5.  

I don't list free agents as Rule 5 eligible because they hit free agency before then. Valencia would have to be protected in the five days after the World Series ends. I even have a note in the header column "Plus any minor league free agents signed."

Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jRnDAcv86yGYl1Tq6fdXD1VoGr2Ls5PiRBNEFBXHL3Y/edit?usp=drivesdk

Off-season eligible tab.

 

 

 

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I don't list free agents as Rule 5 eligible because they hit free agency before then. Valencia would have to be protected in the five days after the World Series ends. I even have a note in the header column "Plus any minor league free agents signed."

Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jRnDAcv86yGYl1Tq6fdXD1VoGr2Ls5PiRBNEFBXHL3Y/edit?usp=drivesdk

Off-season eligible tab.

 

 

 

Thanks.

[4hzglory]

10 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I don't list free agents as Rule 5 eligible because they hit free agency before then. Valencia would have to be protected in the five days after the World Series ends. I even have a note in the header column "Plus any minor league free agents signed."

Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jRnDAcv86yGYl1Tq6fdXD1VoGr2Ls5PiRBNEFBXHL3Y/edit?usp=drivesdk

Off-season eligible tab.

 

 

 

Thanks Edman!

From the list, I'd protect Lee, Liranzo, and maybe Cruz.  Of the bubble, I'd be most likely to let Sommers and one of Jones/Ibanez go.  I'd potentially look to trade Malloy in order to keep Jones/Ibanez and obviously open to including a couple of the bubble players in a trade.

 

I do have a question, if Flaherty opts out, he is off the 40 man even if we offer him (and Torres) the qualifying offer, correct?

[Edman85]

6 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Thanks Edman!

From the list, I'd protect Lee, Liranzo, and maybe Cruz.  Of the bubble, I'd be most likely to let Sommers and one of Jones/Ibanez go.  I'd potentially look to trade Malloy in order to keep Jones/Ibanez and obviously open to including a couple of the bubble players in a trade.

 

I do have a question, if Flaherty opts out, he is off the 40 man even if we offer him (and Torres) the qualifying offer, correct?

Yes. They are off the 40 the moment they file for free agency.

[4hzglory]

14 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Yes. They are off the 40 the moment they file for free agency.

Thanks!

[gehringer_2]

13 hours ago, chasfh said:

Maybe it's a talent issue and not a philosophy or coaching issue. We're still working with a lot of Avila's signs, some of whom (a) are not inherently good talent fits for the eventual Harris peak team we will evolve to, and (b) were drafted and initially developed a under completely different hitting philosophy and structure than Harris has brought to bear in his time with the organization. I think once this team becomes primarily a Harris team, we will see his philosophy of controlling the plate really come into view.

Example: Of the 20 hitters who logged plate appearances this year, 66% of the plate appearances were by Avila signs and 34% were by Harris signs. In aggregate, the Avila signs drew walks in 7.4% of their plate trips; Harris signs drew walks in 10.5% of theirs. That's the difference between a team of Avila signs ranking 28th in the majors in walk rate versus a team of Harris signs ranking 1st.

Same thing with strikeouts: The Avila team strikes out at a 25.5% clip, which would rank them 28th, versus the Harris team at 20.5%, which would rank them 6th.

That tells me that the philosophy is working—we just have to get the right players on board to execute it.

Harris alluded to this talking about the Tiger approach would change as the line up changed, and to large degree this is probably the ultimate truth. Once a guy gets to the majors, very few ever change their profile much. Not saying none, but few. Now in the Tigers case, since the K's are a recent thing for Greene, it seems reasonable to expect he can move back along a path he has already been on. With Torkelson it's all about his willingness to go to RF, and I'm still not sure Hinch has his heart in encouraging him to do that. Even in the presser, Hinch pushed back a little on the idea that he's willing to see the power hitters back off on power for contact. It's an interesting clue of a bit of daylight between him and Harris that they live with. Which is fine, no two people in an org do or should agree 100% on everything.

Edited October 15 by gehringer_2

[4hzglory]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Harris alluded to this talking about the Tiger approach would change as the line up changed, and to large degree this is probably the ultimate truth. Once a guy gets to the majors, very few ever change their profile much. Not saying none, but few. Now in the Tigers case, since the K's are a recent thing for Greene, it seems reasonable to expect he can move back along a path he has already been on. With Torkelson it's all about his willingness to go to RF, and I'm still not sure Hinch has his heart in encouraging him to do that. Even in the presser, Hinch pushed back a little on the idea that he's willing to see the power hitters back off on power for contact. It's an interesting clue of a bit of daylight between him and Harris that they live with. Which is fine, no two people in an org do or should agree 100% on everything.

I do think Tork is the Tiger to benefit the most from the challenge system.  He seems to have too good of an eye many times and has gotten hurt (it seems) more than anyone by calls off the plate when other guys may swing at them to put them in play.

[papalawrence]

36 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Thanks Edman!

From the list, I'd protect Lee, Liranzo, and maybe Cruz.  Of the bubble, I'd be most likely to let Sommers and one of Jones/Ibanez go.  I'd potentially look to trade Malloy in order to keep Jones/Ibanez and obviously open to including a couple of the bubble players in a trade.

 

I do have a question, if Flaherty opts out, he is off the 40 man even if we offer him (and Torres) the qualifying offer, correct?

In his small sample Jones had an ops .900+ . I know that's not sustainable, but he seemed like a spark plug and good chemistry guy. I hope he sticks around another year

[4hzglory]

Just now, papalawrence said:

In his small sample Jones had an ops .900+ . I know that's not sustainable, but he seemed like a spark plug and good chemistry guy. I hope he sticks around another year

I do too.  I see more of a spot for him than Malloy.