gehringer_2 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 2 hours ago, papalawrence said: I have a hunch he'll sit a while as a free agent, as it's likely there will be a work stoppage in 2027. Certainly possible. No-one has much insight into what kind of animal spirits might become ascendant among the owners. Quote
chasfh Posted October 28 Posted October 28 2 hours ago, papalawrence said: I don't see Harris trading Skubal unless he is offered a crazy deal. If Detroit keeps him through 2026, I have a hunch he'll sit a while as a free agent, as it's likely there will be a work stoppage in 2027. And that crazy deal would have to make us not worse this year. No way Harris intentionally sets the team back on their momentum. 1 Quote
chasfh Posted October 28 Posted October 28 33 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: IDK if Forbes is to believed, but the teams that are losing the most money are some of the big market spenders, e.g., the Mets and Padres, more than the small market teams -- so that could drive a different kind of dynamic than we've seen in the past. I don't think the current CBA serves the fans well at all and I'd take a long strike if it meant a better system emerged, but I doubt it would. I don't trust anybody who tells me MLB teams are losing money, even business journals that get their information from we can probably guess what sources. 1 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 (edited) 12 minutes ago, chasfh said: I don't trust anybody who tells me MLB teams are losing money, even business journals that get their information from we can probably guess what sources. The conventional wisdom is that owners, particularly big market owners, don't care about operating loses because teams have been appreciating in value exponentially. Of course, that can't go on forever - anything that must come to an end will. But with no intent to be political here, but just to state an economic fact - it's tied to the oligarchy. As long as the rich continue to get richer exponentially, the price they are willing to pay for their toys will continue to follow suit. Now, that said, it doesn't mean the owners still won't try as hard as they can to remake a system to give them capital appreciation AND operating profits. Edited October 28 by gehringer_2 Quote
Tiger337 Posted October 28 Author Posted October 28 They need to keep him unless they get overwhelmed with an offer. Trading your ace pitcher when you are likely going to contend is not a good move. I would think the players would not like that much. 2 Quote
Tiger337 Posted October 28 Author Posted October 28 6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: Maybe this was posted and I missed it, but I just noticed that the Freep did a fan poll about the Skubal and more than 60% of the respondents said to trade him this off-season. Not what I would have guessed. I think that is because many fans believe the Tigers can get more for one year of Skubal than they likely will. 3 1 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I think that is because many fans believe the Tigers can get more for one year of Skubal than they likely will. yeah - exactly. I'm sure there is a trade out there that would work to the Tigers advantage, but it's just a fact that few GMs ever make a trade like that. And I think it would have to be at least a three way deal - it has to be a more complex set of swaps to get enough pieces to fit. And since we have never seen Harris swing any kind of complex deal (cf, DD), there is no precedent to expect one. Edited October 28 by gehringer_2 1 Quote
4hzglory Posted October 28 Posted October 28 31 minutes ago, chasfh said: And that crazy deal would have to make us not worse this year. No way Harris intentionally sets the team back on their momentum. Can you imagine the apathy if not only do you take a team out of contention by making the team worse this year and then have a work stoppage in 2027? 1 1 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 (edited) 19 minutes ago, 4hzglory said: Can you imagine the apathy if not only do you take a team out of contention by making the team worse this year and then have a work stoppage in 2027? SE Mi is not a particularly rich area by national standards anymore and as good as Tiger TV and radio ratings are, as has been noted the ballpark is already too expensive for most local fans and they average 10k empty seats per date. Now granted, Aces pitching drive sellouts. But even if an ACE is worth 15K extra seats and even at $100 profit per seat sold, on 15 home starts that still only $22.5M/yr. From a purely economic standpoint, there is no sense paying someone $40M for that. 🤷♂️ Long story short, fan enthusiasm is nice, but it may not pay the bills. Edited October 28 by gehringer_2 Quote
4hzglory Posted October 28 Posted October 28 36 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Trading your ace pitcher when you are likely going to contend is not a good move. I would think the players would not like that much. People seem to dismiss this and say the players are professionals, but they are human and we see many times where players don't play with the same energy when they are discouraged. It's one reason you see excitement when teams make trades at the deadline. Seattle didn't get much from Suarez on the field after the trade, but they did get a boost from trading for him in their attitude. The fact that he was so loved there before helped. (They also got more than expected from Naylor, especially on the basepaths) Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 (edited) 5 minutes ago, 4hzglory said: People seem to dismiss this and say the players are professionals, but they are human and we see many times where players don't play with the same energy when they are discouraged. It's one reason you see excitement when teams make trades at the deadline. Seattle didn't get much from Suarez on the field after the trade, but they did get a boost from trading for him in their attitude. The fact that he was so loved there before helped. (They also got more than expected from Naylor, especially on the basepaths) But if this is an issue, isn't it going to be an even bigger issue if he walks for nothing at the end of '26 as compared to getting some talent back this off-season? The players know the set-up as well as anyone. I assume most of them and us want the team to be able to continue to contend beyond '26? I'm not saying it's not a potential issue, just that you are going to face it either way - it's just a matter of when. Edited October 28 by gehringer_2 1 Quote
4hzglory Posted October 28 Posted October 28 3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: SE Mi is not a particularly rich area by national standards anymore and as good as Tiger TV and radio ratings are, as has been noted the ballpark is already too expensive for most local fans and they average 10k empty seats per date. Now granted, Aces pitching drive sellouts. But even if an ACE is worth 15K extra seats and even at $100 profit per seat sold, on 15 home starts that still only $22.5M/yr. From a purely economic standpoint, there is no sense paying someone $40M for that. 🤷♂️ I'm not advocating signing him to a long term deal (even though I'd definitely be happy if they did as it would mean they figure the $ work). I'm saying what Lee, Chas, and Brian are saying, you don't trade your Ace (who will be closer to $20 mil for 2026) when trading him takes you from being the favorites in the division to playoff long shots. And for sure TV and radio ratings will drop if they aren't in contention and that is where most of the long term revenue $ end up being. I know I don't make it a point to watch at least part of probably 80% of their games when they are having down years like I did last year. 1 Quote
4hzglory Posted October 28 Posted October 28 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: But if this is an issue, isn't it going to be an even bigger issue if he walks for nothing at the end of '26 as compared to getting some talent back this off-season? The players know the set-up as well as anyone. I assume most of them and us want the team to be able to continue to contend beyond '26? I'm not saying it's not a potential issue, just that you are going to face it either way - it's just a matter of when. Not at all IMO as there are other ways to improve after 2026. Having a season in 2027 is no sure thing, let alone being in contention then. With Skubal, they are the favorites in the Central. They know they are set up for contention in 2026. By 2027, if there is a season, a number of these players won't be here. They for sure want to be given the best chance in the present, knowing if they are here, reinforcements are coming from a top 3 farm system in future years. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 Just now, 4hzglory said: Not at all IMO as there are other ways to improve after 2026. Having a season in 2027 is no sure thing, let alone being in contention then. With Skubal, they are the favorites in the Central. They know they are set up for contention in 2026. By 2027, if there is a season, a number of these players won't be here. They for sure want to be given the best chance in the present, knowing if they are here, reinforcements are coming from a top 3 farm system in future years. It's true that the uncertainty around '27 is a wild card. I don't really have dog in the fight either way. I just don't want them to do something stupid, which by my definition means if you trade him, it has to be a good trade, if you keep him you better make a good pick on the comp award. Quote
1984Echoes Posted October 28 Posted October 28 (edited) 14 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: I can see one guy from that core being moved, but otherwise for good or bad, that's it. If I'm going to play armchair GM, and I feel I have to move a core player for some pitching, the guy I'd like to move would be Carpenter. I'd have to buy out most of Javy's deal to move him, besides he's my safety net in CF. If you get a catcher who can receive and throw, and even hit some, you hold onto that for dear life, so I'm not even answering the phone about Dingler. Torkelson might bring back something of value but I'd just have to turn around and shop for a RH bat to replace his production. That leaves Greene and Carp and I think Greene crimped his value last season. I'd rather risk that he gets back on track than sell low. That last part is the gamble. I'd rather know all that the coaching staff knows about Greene's season from the inside before making that call. My offseason plan starts with signing Bregman, Tucker and Cease. That makes it much, much, MUCH easier to trade Carpenter. It puts another RH bat that works counts AND fields his position well with Bregman at 3rd. Tucker and Bregman are EXACTLY the TYPE of players that Harris is shooting for... it just makes too much sense. I'm with Chas in that... I think if anyone is helped by removing umpires from calling balls/strikes it's Torkelson, who seems to have a wicked good eye but suffers the most from umpire vagaries... Between Dingler, Bregman and Tork... we have the basis for RH'ed hitting. Add in some Baez (maybe) and Vierling and Wenceel (switch) and there is some semblence of RH balance to... Lefty Tucker replaces Carpenter and is a more appropriate hitter in Harris/Hinch's scheme. Greene needs to fix his golf swing. I'm still interested to see if Keith can improve his bat. Stick him at 2B and DH and at least give him a chance. Quite a few guys in AAA ready to push him out if he can't cut it. But there's enough Lefty in there to have LH/RH balance in our batting order... Just my 2 cents. Edited October 28 by 1984Echoes Quote
4hzglory Posted October 28 Posted October 28 22 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: It's true that the uncertainty around '27 is a wild card. I don't really have dog in the fight either way. I just don't want them to do something stupid, which by my definition means if you trade him, it has to be a good trade, if you keep him you better make a good pick on the comp award. My definition of not doing something stupid is if you trade him, you still need to compete in 2026 and it must be good enough of a return to also improve you for at least 3 years. I'm not all that concerned about losing him for just a comp pick, as again, I think they have many ways to improve by 2027 (assuming there is a season). McGonigle and Clark should be up with some time under their belt. Not to mention one or 2 of Lee/Alexander/Jung/Briceno being improvements over the current lot of Ibanez and Jones. I think Keith has a great chance to be a solid player by 2027 (I think we see a big jump in 2026 and he becomes our primary 3b barring a FA signing). Jobe should also be fully recovered and I'm assuming even with Skubal, (and Flaherty), they sign someone for a multiple years this offseason (like Cease). That gives time to evaluate/develop Olson/Melton/Mize (to see if extend)/SGL/Montero/rest of farm and have the $ to make another FA signing in 2027. IMO, they have time and a path to do that for 2027, but those pieces aren't all in place for 2026 which is why they need Skubal for a chance to really compete. Quote
4hzglory Posted October 28 Posted October 28 6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: My offseason plan starts with signing Bregman, Tucker and Cease. That makes it much, much, MUCH easier to trade Carpenter. It puts another RH bat that works counts AND fields his position well with Bregman at 3rd. Tucker and Bregman are EXACTLY the TYPE of players that Harris is shooting for... it just makes too much sense. I'm with Chas in that... I think if anyone is helped by removing umpires from calling balls/strikes it's Torkelson, who seems to have a wicked good eye but suffers the most from umpire vagaries... Between Dingler, Bregman and Tork... we have the basis for RH'ed hitting. Add in some Baez (maybe) and Vierling and Wenceel (switch) and there is some semblence of RH balance to... Lefty Tucker replaces Carpenter and is a more appropriate hitter in Harris/Hinch's scheme. Greene needs to fix his golf swing. I'm still interested to see if Keith can improve his bat. Stick him at 2B and DH and at least give him a chance. Quite a few guys in AAA ready to push him out if he can't cut it. But there's enough Lefty in there to have LH/RH balance in our batting order... Just my 2 cents. Tucker would be great, but I don't see it at all. Even with his down year, he's projected to get 10/$400 from most places and I don't see that fitting. I think at most they are in play for one of Bichette/Bregman and a starter like Cease or Ranger Suarez and then swing and miss for the pen. Quote
Tiger337 Posted October 28 Author Posted October 28 19 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: My offseason plan starts with signing Bregman, Tucker and Cease. I was going to make a joke post saying pretty much the same thing as this. I'd be fne with it, but I don't see Harris/Ilitch signing more than one expensive player. If they sign one of those guys it would be a big deal. 2 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: My offseason plan starts with signing Bregman, Tucker and Cease. That makes it much, much, MUCH easier to trade Carpenter. It puts another RH bat that works counts AND fields his position well with Bregman at 3rd. Tucker and Bregman are EXACTLY the TYPE of players that Harris is shooting for... it just makes too much sense. I'm with Chas in that... I think if anyone is helped by removing umpires from calling balls/strikes it's Torkelson, who seems to have a wicked good eye but suffers the most from umpire vagaries... Between Dingler, Bregman and Tork... we have the basis for RH'ed hitting. Add in some Baez (maybe) and Vierling and Wenceel (switch) and there is some semblence of balance. Tucker replaces Carpenter, and is a more appropriate hitter in Harris/Hinch's scheme. Greene needs to fix his golf swing. I'm still interested to see if Keith can improve his bat. Stick him at 2B and DH and at least give him a chance. Quite a few guys in AAA ready to push him out if he can't cut it. I like Bregman well enough, but I'd like Bregman and Torres as I think the team is too LH'd. But they are not going to cut bait on Keith. So Bregman means Keith goes back to 2nd and they don't pursue Torres. Bregman is prolly the better bat than Torres and a better 3b than Keith but Torres is a better 2b than Keith. It would overall be a step but not a huge one, but that's OK. They were an 87 win team, there aren't big steps left. If you make even a truly serious try for Tucker with so many likely bidders out there you can have little certainty you land him. Lower certainty there than pursuing Bregman anyway. For me signing pitching is all a matter of whether they can get reasonable years. Quote
chasfh Posted October 28 Posted October 28 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: The conventional wisdom is that owners, particularly big market owners, don't care about operating loses because teams have been appreciating in value exponentially. There is that, plus there's frequently team-related revenue that they can shuffle to another part of the balance sheet, such as parent company-owned parking under a different business unit, to make the team look less profitable, or even like a money loser. Quote
chasfh Posted October 28 Posted October 28 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: I think that is because many fans believe the Tigers could get more for one year of Skubal than they likely would. Quote
Tenacious D Posted October 28 Posted October 28 2 hours ago, RatkoVarda said: that's surprising. the heart says keep him, make a WS run, and maybe Iitch makes, and Skubal accepts, a $400M deal but the heart is dead wrong, and the head says trade him before he walks for (almost) nothing I don’t think fans want to see him go, but are resigned to it, so would like to see us get players in return. I don’t share this view—I’d prefer going all in for 2026. 1 Quote
Tigermojo Posted October 28 Posted October 28 Harris already talked about not blocking young players so they probably don't go after any position players. Maybe a qualifying offer for Torres. 1 Quote
chasfh Posted October 28 Posted October 28 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: SE Mi is not a particularly rich area by national standards anymore and as good as Tiger TV and radio ratings are, as has been noted the ballpark is already too expensive for most local fans and they average 10k empty seats per date. Now granted, Aces pitching drive sellouts. But even if an ACE is worth 15K extra seats and even at $100 profit per seat sold, on 15 home starts that still only $22.5M/yr. From a purely economic standpoint, there is no sense paying someone $40M for that. 🤷♂️ Assuming your numbers are correct and looking at this in a vacuum, I would look at this as, you're paying $17.5MM for the baseline pitcher, which is totally worth it based strictly on his performance, and the other $22.5MM for incremental gameday ticket revenue. Of course, there is incremental gameday revenue outside of actual tickets his pitching days sell, not only concessions revenue on his gamedays, but incremental sales from days he's not pitching as the team is better and a better draw overall for having him on it. That would end up funding more than the remaining $17.5MM, I would guess. Quote
chasfh Posted October 28 Posted October 28 1 minute ago, Tigermojo said: Harris already talked about not blocking young players so they probably don't go after any position players. Maybe a qualifying offer for Torres. They might get a multi-year right fielder, if anything, but they probably won't get any infielders for more than a year. Quote
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