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Posted
13 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

I do not believe tanking is necessary. I do not believe a clean sweep of the front office is necessary.

You think our North American scouting and pro side NHL scouting has been good and produced for this organization?

Posted
56 minutes ago, buddha said:

its the Tater Manifesto!

You know you agree with a bulk of it. You know this front office needs changes. You know Draper and his team have done (at best) a subpar job of amateur scouting and putting together a good pipeline of North American players. You know Horcoff and our pro side scouting has not brought us productive NHL players. You know we've overpaid for guys that haven't produced and are on contracts nobody else in the league would want.

Posted
9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

You think our North American scouting and pro side NHL scouting has been good and produced for this organization?

🙄

Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

🙄

Why the eye role? You either believe they've done a good job scouting North American amateur talent, a mediocre job, or a poor job. The same thing is to be said about their pro side scouting. When it comes to amateur scouting in the US and Canada over the past decade, what players has this organization drafted that you really think will be or have been already impactful to this roster? Larkin, Finne, Baby Bert, maybe Mazur one day, maybe Augustine one day, maybe Danielson one day, maybe Cossa one day? Can't wait to see Dylan James and Brady Cleveland.

Edited by Mr.TaterSalad
Posted

I really should keep my mouth shut because here I've been thinking that Horcoff has low key been doing a great job with Grand Rapids haha.  Not sure why he's saddled with North American scouting in your eyes, especially pro scouting since he always seemed to be more involved in amateur scouting before becoming the GR GM.

I also don't know why you would bring up Larkin and Bert, neither were drafted under this regime.  Probably want to go with players like Plante who actually were drafted under Yzerman's front office.

Posted
2 minutes ago, slothfacekilla said:

I really should keep my mouth shut because here I've been thinking that Horcoff has low key been doing a great job with Grand Rapids haha.  Not sure why he's saddled with North American scouting in your eyes, especially pro scouting since he always seemed to be more involved in amateur scouting before becoming the GR GM.

I also don't know why you would bring up Larkin and Bert, neither were drafted under this regime.  Probably want to go with players like Plante who actually were drafted under Yzerman's front office.

whomever has been doing pro scouting and brought us tarasenko, holl, appleton, compher, jvr, has been doing a bad job the last couple years.  i mean, jvr was passable, everyone else was terrible.

as for amateur scouting, we've been down this road a ton.  all those second round picka they had in 2019 and 2020 have produced one marginal defenseman.  that's bad.

Posted

That's fair!  Yzerman has admitted they had to rebuild/build up their scouting department since some stayed behind in Tampa and then Verbeek took some when he left for the Anaheim job. 

I also think people expect too much from free agent signings and non-first round picks, but that is a whole other discussion!  I won't act like they've been amazing though.

Posted

“Pro scouting” is a mantra people repeat because Mark Howe left a few years ago and wasn’t replaced, and because Stevie signed some free agents who were over-priced and/or did not work out. It is lazy thinking. 

Stevie has signed some free agents who were over-priced because that is what you have to do in the FA market. 

People complain about signings like Tarasenko. “Pro scouting blah blah blah!” Well, he left Detroit and is performing again. So how is that an indictment of pro scouting? He was better before he got here and after he left. Again, just lazy thinking. 

One key problem I see is with the organizational culture. I don’t know how much Larkin is to blame, Stevie, the vets upstairs, Chris Ilitch, but it seems like everyone is afraid to make a mistake. They grip their sticks too tight in March. They wait too long to promote prospects. They value “veteran leadership” over youthful energy. This has nothing to do with pro scouting. 

The other problem is that, without a well-developed analytics operation, nobody knows specifically what to value or how to value it. Maybe as a result that allows Stevie to overpay for things like “veteran leadership” (which he evidently wants Chiarot to provide in the defensive corps). Maybe as a result that means Stevie does not even think with enough detail about what hockey traits to value. Carolina knows exactly what traits they want to find and how to value them. This helps define their team culture. 

I don’t believe firing scouts or tanking addresses either of these problems. Detroit needs to build out a better analytics team to help them do a better job of connecting amateur scouting, player development, pro scouting, and the management of contracts and cap. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

People complain about signings like Tarasenko. “Pro scouting blah blah blah!” Well, he left Detroit and is performing again. So how is that an indictment of pro scouting? He was better before he got here and after he left.

He was dealing with the death of his father the season he was in Detroit, I wasn't too shocked that he rebounded well enough after being traded.  Also uncle fester loved playing him on the wrong wing for some reason.

Posted
57 minutes ago, slothfacekilla said:

He was dealing with the death of his father the season he was in Detroit, I wasn't too shocked that he rebounded well enough after being traded.  Also uncle fester loved playing him on the wrong wing for some reason.

The Uncle Fester part of your comment is my point. There is no clear vision for what kind of talent needs to be acquired and how to use it and how much it is worth. So your Uncle Festers of the world play guys on this line, that line, this wing, that wing, just to see if it works. It doesn’t. Is that the fault of the scouts? Not necessarily. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Jason_R said:

“Pro scouting” is a mantra people repeat because Mark Howe left a few years ago and wasn’t replaced, and because Stevie signed some free agents who were over-priced and/or did not work out. It is lazy thinking. 

Stevie has signed some free agents who were over-priced because that is what you have to do in the FA market. 

People complain about signings like Tarasenko. “Pro scouting blah blah blah!” Well, he left Detroit and is performing again. So how is that an indictment of pro scouting? He was better before he got here and after he left. Again, just lazy thinking. 

People rip on those responsible for scouting NHL players because they've made a number of moves that have either been outright bad or have at best underwhelmed based on the paychecks they are receiving and cap space they are taking up.

Bad: Compher, Gustafsson, Husso, Holl, Nedeljkovic, Petry

Underwhelmed: Appleton, Chiarot, Copp, JVR, Perron, Reimer, Talbot

Whoever is running pro scouting, be it Horcoff or the individual scouts themselves, need to be changed out. They've made some scouting changes already when Verbeek left and took guys with him. There is still more that needs to be done clearly.

  • Like 1
Posted

Scouts do not issue contracts. Scouts do not run practice. Scouts do not manage line combinations and ice time. 

The bottom line is we have no idea what the internal scouting reports said on any of these players. We have no idea whether these were the top players on the scouts’ lists, or if they were just the only ones who would sign. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Scouts do not issue contracts. Scouts do not run practice. Scouts do not manage line combinations and ice time. 

The bottom line is we have no idea what the internal scouting reports said on any of these players. We have no idea whether these were the top players on the scouts’ lists, or if they were just the only ones who would sign. 

Then that leads us to the person who does issue contracts, hire coaches, and make the final roster decisions, the General Manager, Steve Yzerman. Now, I'm not ready to fire Yzerman yet. If he choses to keep this going without a rebuild, I want to give him another season or two (at most) to turn this around. If we are siting here at the end of 2027 or 2028 and still haven't made the playoffs, he then needs to go. If he choses to do a full-scale rebuild like I want, my patience will run longer than a year or two.

In my mind though, scouting is still a problem. I get that none of us, myself included, have a clue about who reports to who, what their scouting reports look like, and does Yzerman listen to his scouts and how much weight does he give them if he does. Pro scouts must have made some recommendations on at least some of the bad players we've signed since he has been here one would think. And those recommendations have hurt this team and slowed its progress. Hence, there needs to be more changes made to pro side scouting.

Posted

I’m going to tap out after saying, again, we have no idea what recommendations the pro scouts made or did not make. And we have no way of knowing whether or not Yzerman followed any of their recommendations. Ergo, we have no way to draw any conclusions about their pro scouting personnel or systems.

OTOH it is clear that something is not working. It is also clear that the analytics movement is doing for hockey what it did for baseball. This is why I said earlier that if I was Chris Ilitch, I would ask Stevie to give me a plan for bolstering the analytics operation. If Stevie doesn’t want to go that direction, or doesn’t take this opportunity to make a substantial commitment to building up the analytics team, and I were his owner, I would be very alarmed and would be considering all other options.

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Jason_R said:

The other problem is that, without a well-developed analytics operation, nobody knows specifically what to value or how to value it.

and/or they don't have enough old school sense of how to build a team. I don't think you have be an analytics genius to know that the wings are hugely deficient in puck-possession and forecheck, yet in all the years since he left, they never even brought back a player to repace what Gendenning was providing let alone enough to get any better at it.

But sure - for whatever the reason they are under performing as an org and that means the guy at the top has to make some changes in process, and that almost always means people as well.

Edited by gehringer_2
  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

and/or they don't have enough old school sense of how to build a team. I don't think you have be an analytics genius to know that the wings are hugely deficient in puck-possession and forecheck, yet in all the years since he left, they never even brought back a player to repace what Gendenning was providing let alone enough to get any better at it.

But sure - for whatever the reason they are under performing as an org and that means the guy at the top has to make some changes in process, and that almost always means people as well.

"Glendenning"

Posted
45 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

and/or they don't have enough old school sense of how to build a team. I don't think you have be an analytics genius to know that the wings are hugely deficient in puck-possession and forecheck, yet in all the years since he left, they never even brought back a player to repace what Gendenning was providing let alone enough to get any better at it.

But sure - for whatever the reason they are under performing as an org and that means the guy at the top has to make some changes in process, and that almost always means people as well.

This is an interesting article about old school team building philosophies. I am not sure it connects with the scouting versus analytics debate, but it does address the preference that many teams have for size in defenseman. Clearly, Stevie agrees, and his team now has arguably the best first defensive pairing in the NHL.

Also, if you leave out ASP, the average size of the defensive corps in Grand Rapids is about 6’4”. Now, those guys have not hit yet, and some of them may never. But Anton will probably make the NHL roster next season and will be a third defenseman who is young and big and mobile. ASP is a bit of an exception to this, but if his floor is Shayne Gostisbehere, playing on the third line, running one of your power-play units, and putting up 55 points a year, this means that in a year or two, you have a pretty good defensive corps. 

Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

This is an interesting article about old school team building philosophies. I am not sure it connects with the scouting versus analytics debate, but it does address the preference that many teams have for size in defenseman. Clearly, Stevie agrees, and his team now has arguably the best first defensive pairing in the NHL.

Also, if you leave out ASP, the average size of the defensive corps in Grand Rapids is about 6’4”. Now, those guys have not hit yet, and some of them may never. But Anton will probably make the NHL roster next season and will be a third defenseman who is young and big and mobile. ASP is a bit of an exception to this, but if his floor is Shayne Gostisbehere, playing on the third line, running one of your power-play units, and putting up 55 points a year, this means that in a year or two, you have a pretty good defensive corps. 

Yzerman's building of the D is the one thing I don't have any problem with, other than holding on to Petry too long. The Wings defensive problems are up front and to the degree the D suffers even with good D men like Seider and Edvinsson, it's because the wingers can handle their end of the assignment fore -checking the  rush or pressuring the puck from the defensive half-board to the blue line. When I watch the Wings, once you get past Raymond, Larkin and 'Cat, every forward on the other team is a more effective player than the 9 other Wings.And three is about to be two.

Edited by gehringer_2
Posted
16 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yzerman's building of the D is the one thing I don't have any problem with, other than holding on to Petry too long. The Wings defensive problems are up front and to the degree the D suffers even with good D men like Seider and Edvinsson, it's because the wingers can handle their end of the assignment fore -checking the  rush or pressuring the puck from the defensive half-board to the blue line. When I watch the Wings, once you get past Raymond, Larkin and 'Cat, every forward on the other team is a more effective player than the 9 other Wings.And three is about to be two.

Yes, he’s done a pretty good job rebuilding the defense… but there are twice as many forwards so it takes twice as long. Kasper will be pretty good. MBN will be pretty good. Bear will be pretty good. Plante should be pretty good. Hopefully Danielson has recovered from his injuries and will be pretty good. Maybe one or two of them will pop and become very good. They will get something out of Mazur, Lombardi, and Genborg. 

I’ve always thought the window starts when the CCR contracts are off the books. Still think that. The March collapses have been discouraging and embarrassing but help is on the way and Larkin’s trade demand is a blessing in disguise. 

Posted

On defense...Larry Keenan (rd 4 2023 draft) is an emerging LHD prospect.  6-4, 200...good skater with a cannon for a shot.  Dylan James is a long shot to make the team this year...but he's the kind of great skating hard working checking fwd we do not have on the bottom six.  We sign guys thinking they're going to be that, but they start taking nights off the second they put on the winged wheel.

In my hierarchy of needs...getting a quality, young 2nd pair LHD is almost as important as retooling the top six forwards.

 

Posted

The young guys were not ready to contribute last year.  i doubt a new set of young guys will be able to walk right in and contribute this year.

mazur, mbn, danielson, and asp were not ready.  they performed poorly.  why do we expect a dylan james or an amadeus lombardi to be much better?

THIS year i expect mbn to make the team and be an effective third line player.  I expect Mazur can be a fourth line guy if he could ever stay healthy.  who knows about danielson.  he has to get healthy before we can really speculate.

I'd love to see them becsuse i'm tired of watching rasmussen, compher, appleton, etc dog it all the time, but i'm not naive enough to expect them to come in and lead the team to the playoffs.

None of them are first line players on playoff teams in the Atlantic division, and that's what this team desperately needs.

Posted

The goal of any hockey team is to make and win The Stanley Cup. In order to win a Stanley Cup the data is fairly clear, you need to score goals to win one. This team has a scoring problem and I used AI to give me some data around points, goals, and Stanley Cup winners. I asked ChatGPT a series of questions to get some data back on this.

Q1: How many teams have won a Cup since 1990 without a player who produced over 90 points

A: Of those 35 Cup winners 19 teams had a player who produced 90+ points and 16 did not have a 90+ point player. 

Q2: How many Cup winning teams had two guys over 80+ points in a season?

A: Of the 16 Stanley Cup winners since 1990 that did not have a 90-point scorer, 8 teams had at least two players score more than 80 points in the regular season.

Q3: Of the last 35 Cup winners, how many teams had at least 10 guys above 30 points?

A: Of the 35 Cup winners from 1990 through 2025, 31 teams had at least 10 players score 30 or more points during the regular season.

Q4: Of the last 35 Cup winners, how many teams had at least 10 guys above 12 or more goals?

A: Of the 35 Stanley Cup winners from 1990 through 2025, 34 teams had at least 10 players score 12 or more goals in the regular season.

Q5: Of the last 35 cup winners how many teams were in the top 5 of the NHL in goals scored?

A: 18 of the last 35 Cup winners were top-five teams in goals scored.

The odds are better, if imperfect, that if you have a player who produced 90+ points in a season, you are more likely than not to win a Cup. Of those teams 16 that lacked a 90+ point producer, half of them had two guys above 80 points. The odds are also better when you can role out 3 lines of scoring with at least 10 guys producing 12 or more goals and 30 or more points. 

The Wings had only 8 players reached 12 or more goals and only 9 players reach 30 or more points.

For us, I ask this question. Where are we going to get a 90+ point guy without tanking or who are going to be are two 80+ point guys? Where is the scoring depth going to come from based on the current roster and farm system? We need obvious scoring depth. If it isn't coming from within, do you trust this front office, GM and scouts, to make the proper evaluations and free agent signings/trades to add the scoring necessary to get us to the SCF and bring us a Cup?

Posted

Using AI to tell you that teams are more successful when they have players that score more is cracking me up.

Also kinda funny that the Hurricanes just won with their leading scorers at 80, 71 and 70 points compared to the Wings' 85, 76 and 67.

  • Haha 1
Posted
34 minutes ago, buddha said:

The young guys were not ready to contribute last year.  i doubt a new set of young guys will be able to walk right in and contribute this year.

mazur, mbn, danielson, and asp were not ready.  they performed poorly.  why do we expect a dylan james or an amadeus lombardi to be much better?

THIS year i expect mbn to make the team and be an effective third line player.  I expect Mazur can be a fourth line guy if he could ever stay healthy.  who knows about danielson.  he has to get healthy before we can really speculate.

I'd love to see them becsuse i'm tired of watching rasmussen, compher, appleton, etc dog it all the time, but i'm not naive enough to expect them to come in and lead the team to the playoffs.

None of them are first line players on playoff teams in the Atlantic division, and that's what this team desperately needs.

Dylan James is 22 coming off  4 full seasons of college hockey...no one expects him to be a top six guy, he'll be competing for  bottom six...along with Mazur who's been hampered by injury.

ASP and MBN were both playing their 1st seasons in NA.  MBN had a pretty productive year in the AHL...I expect him to be competing for a middle six role.  If they let ASP be ASP...he could give you 3rd pair and 2nd PP minutes this year.

Danielson can't seem to stay healthy

 

Posted
25 minutes ago, slothfacekilla said:

Using AI to tell you that teams are more successful when they have players that score more is cracking me up.

Also kinda funny that the Hurricanes just won with their leading scorers at 80, 71 and 70 points compared to the Wings' 85, 76 and 67.

Some fans don't seem to think so. You've got fans out there making excuses for Yzerman and this regime talking about puck luck, injuries, bad breaks, and so forth. Not saying anyone here is doing it. It is out there though among a fair number in this fanbase. The Yzerbots if you will.

This regime under Yzerman has failed to build a team with either the depth or top end scoring that historically goes along with winning a Cup. Yes, Carolina won a Cup just this year without elite top-end scoring, but they brought scoring depth. The Hurricanes had 11 guys above 12 goals or more and 12 above 30 points or more. We had 9 guys above 30 points and 8 with 12 or more goals. They also were top 5 in the league I believe in 5on5 goals. Our 5on5 productivity was in the bottom 10. When there isn't a PP, we struggle mightily to score.

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