2026 Exhibition Spring Games

[Longgone]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Hinch is not above riding a hot hand even if he knows the player will be gone by the ASB. Once the season starts, short term results are still results, you take 'em if you can get 'em. The great baseball debate has always been: are players streaky or is it just stochastic noise? The answer is 'Yes'.  The performance of the human machine is the combination of hundreds of factors that just might all align once in a guy's life for a week or month or 3 or even one season and then maybe never be seen again. Other guys will turn in year after year of consistency. OTOH, BaBIP buries a tremendous amount of true performance in its noise generation. But both things are true, always have been. And good teams take advantage of understanding it all.

It has nothing to do with "riding the hot hand", it's the exact same sweet swinging Kevin McGonigle, but facing different pitchers and circumstances and randomness that produces very different results in small samples. Baseball is a frustrating game where you can do everything right and still get negative results over the short term.

[Sports_Freak]

7 hours ago, Longgone said:

Hypothetical for you. You clone Kevin McGonicle. Exact same player in every way, and alternate them through the first ten games of spring training. One goes 1 for twenty and makes several errors in the field, and the other goes 10 for 20 and is flawless at short. Which one goes north and which one to AAA?

Every single year, on every single team, fringe players compete for the last spots on a major league roster. Utility players, bullpen arms and sometimes even starting position players, on some teams. A horrible spring by one player may open the door for another player, at times. This Tiger team, this season, has most of it's lineup set, there is little competition. CF may not be handed to Meadows, it may be Javy out there on opening day. I really like the defense and speed Meadows brings but he has to hit, at least a little bit. If Kevin does make the team, he won't sit on the bench, he'll be our starting SS. And that opens the door for Javy to play CF. We'll see what happens....

Your question doesnt have an answer unless you specify which players,  which position or which team. A starting player like Riley? He's our starting left fielder, no matter what. Of course, unless he's injured.

[Longgone]

10 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Every single year, on every single team, fringe players compete for the last spots on a major league roster. Utility players, bullpen arms and sometimes even starting position players, on some teams. A horrible spring by one player may open the door for another player, at times. This Tiger team, this season, has most of it's lineup set, there is little competition. CF may not be handed to Meadows, it may be Javy out there on opening day. I really like the defense and speed Meadows brings but he has to hit, at least a little bit. If Kevin does make the team, he won't sit on the bench, he'll be our starting SS. And that opens the door for Javy to play CF. We'll see what happens....

Your question doesnt have an answer unless you specify which players,  which position or which team. A starting player like Riley? He's our starting left fielder, no matter what. Of course, unless he's injured.

Of course players are competing for spots, that was never the point. The point is small samples of stats in spring training are not a reliable indicator of ability or competitive status, and fans grant them way too much importance.

[Sports_Freak]

48 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Of course players are competing for spots, that was never the point. The point is small samples of stats in spring training are not a reliable indicator of ability or competitive status, and fans grant them way too much importance.

In competition for open roster spots, stats are an indicator of which player is having more success over another player. A back end bullpen arm open spot? One pitcher gives up 15 spring runs, the other give up 2 runs? That's a very good indication for fans to compare when they make roster predictions. It's been that way...forever. 😆

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

And if Tarik is just good not Cy Great ........

I don’t think there is much chance for that. I think the far bigger danger for Skubal than going bad is getting hurt.

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Pitching wise, a big surprise (to me) has been Drew Anderson. The guy has been flawless. He may have worked himself up to a #6 starter....so far. 

You misspelled number five.

[Tiger337]

13 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

In competition for open roster spots, stats are an indicator of which player is having more success over another player. A back end bullpen arm open spot? One pitcher gives up 15 spring runs, the other give up 2 runs? That's a very good indication for fans to compare when they make roster predictions. It's been that way...forever. 😆

Only if the small sample stats are indicative of physical performance.  If a pitcher gives a bunch of runs because he was working on a new pitch its different from giving up a bunch of runs because he has lost speed on his fastball.   

[Tiger337]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

You misspelled number five.

In place of whom?  

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

In place of whom?  

Verlander? Or is he written into the rotation in pen no matter who does what, because Verlander?

Edited 4 hours ago by chasfh

[Tiger337]

Just now, chasfh said:

Verlander? Or is he written into the rotation in pen no matter who does what, because Verlander?

I think the spot belongs to Verlander until he proves he can't do it just like Cabrera.  

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I think the spot belongs to Verlander until he proves he can't do it just like Cabrera.  

I would bet that if Drew Anderson proves he is much better than Verlander, Hinch and Harris would make him the #5, rather than Verlander for primarily legacy reasons.

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

I would bet that if Drew Anderson proves he is much better than Verlander, Hinch and Harris would make him the #5, rather than Verlander for primarily legacy reasons.

If Verlander gets shelled in a bunch of starts at the beginning of the season then sure, but arguably the best pitcher in Tigers history is not going to lose his job right out of the gate to a guy with career 44 innings and a 6.50 ERA.  

[chasfh]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

If Verlander gets shelled in a bunch of starts at the beginning of the season then sure, but arguably the best pitcher in Tigers history is not going to lose his job right out of the gate to a guy with career 44 innings and a 6.50 ERA.  

I could be wrong.

[NorthWoods]

Evan Petzold@EvanPetzold 12m

#Tigers lineup today vs. Tampa Bay Rays in Grapefruit League:

Wenceel Pérez (CF)

Javier Báez (SS)

Dillon Dingler (C)

Riley Greene (LF)

Spencer Torkelson (1B)

Kerry Carpenter (DH)

Austin Slater (RF)

Kevin McGonigle (3B)

John Peck (2B)

Framber Valdez (LHP)

 

 

McGonigle is going to Opening Day.

[romad1]

10 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

Evan Petzold@EvanPetzold 12m

#Tigers lineup today vs. Tampa Bay Rays in Grapefruit League:

Wenceel Pérez (CF)

Javier Báez (SS)

Dillon Dingler (C)

Riley Greene (LF)

Spencer Torkelson (1B)

Kerry Carpenter (DH)

Austin Slater (RF)

Kevin McGonigle (3B)

John Peck (2B)

Framber Valdez (LHP)

 

 

McGonigle is going to Opening Day.

Dingler catching is a very good sign

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

You misspelled number five.

When they signed him it seemed the intention was for Anderson to make the rotation. I guess bringing in JV changed that calculus somewhat, but the team had to know going in that JV might end up not being one of the 5 best pitchers, and for that matter that could be true of Flaherty and/or Mize as well. I don't think Harris lacks the stomach to make the tough call if it has to be made, but that that call might be tougher than usual if it had to be JV was always a risk going in.

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2

[IdahoBert]

35 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

Evan Petzold@EvanPetzold 12m

#Tigers lineup today vs. Tampa Bay Rays in Grapefruit League:

Wenceel Pérez (CF)

Javier Báez (SS)

Dillon Dingler (C)

Riley Greene (LF)

Spencer Torkelson (1B)

Kerry Carpenter (DH)

Austin Slater (RF)

Kevin McGonigle (3B)

John Peck (2B)

Framber Valdez (LHP)

 

 

McGonigle is going to Opening Day.

Thanks for posting this for us. 

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

You misspelled number five.

Who's spot do you think he'll take?

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Only if the small sample stats are indicative of physical performance.  If a pitcher gives a bunch of runs because he was working on a new pitch its different from giving up a bunch of runs because he has lost speed on his fastball.   

But back end of the bullpen guys don't have the luxury of working on pitches when they're in stiff competition for that final roster spot. At least, most of the time.

[SoCalTiger]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I don’t think there is much chance for that. I think the far bigger danger for Skubal than going bad is getting hurt.

Then it's FUBAR

[SoCalTiger]

Seems that Wencel is getting strong consideration for CF which only adds to my biggest worry for 2026 which is defense. 

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Seems that Wencel is getting strong consideration for CF which only adds to my biggest worry for 2026 which is defense. 

The majority of players will be playing multiple position, so Perez playing center field in spring training could just mean that they want him to be ready to play the position when the need arises.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Tiger337

[Tigermojo]

13 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Seems that Wencel is getting strong consideration for CF which only adds to my biggest worry for 2026 which is defense. 

He's not hitting either.

[gehringer_2]

6 hours ago, Longgone said:

It has nothing to do with "riding the hot hand", it's the exact same sweet swinging Kevin McGonigle, but facing different pitchers and circumstances and randomness that produces very different results in small samples. Baseball is a frustrating game where you can do everything right and still get negative results over the short term.

In the same way you can never step into the same river twice, no human being is the same person two days in a row. In the 24 hrs billions of cells have died and been replaced. In some people's genome that generates little overall change, in other DNA sets the outcome of that turn over is constant change in the overall organism, sometimes better, sometimes worse. In general, only people who are lucky enough to maintain a pretty consistent phenotype ever get to high levels of sports performance, but even then, the genetic timing and injury and repair factors all remain variable and that's before psycological factors are considered in the mix at all.

I'm deliberately over drawing the argument here, but the idea that athletes are robotic automatons is just wrong. Athletic competition exactly selects for the most consistent performers in the population, but that consistency is always on the edge of being lost from both internal and external forces.

All this goes on at the same time that the game injects massive random uncertainty into outcomes. Both are true.

Edited 1 hour ago by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm deliberately over drawing the argument here, but the idea that athletes are robotic automatons is just wrong.

No they aren't robots, but the vast majority of fans don't know enough from a small sample in order to detect whether it's real or just noise.  It's fun to guess though.