2026 Trade deadline

[chasfh]

17 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

I must not have been clear, Skubal Framber and Casey are locks in the rotation.  I'm assuming Melton is the 4th for the playoffs.  So Flaherty, Montero, and Jobe would move to the pen removing a few of the weaker links in the pen.

First of all, thank you for calling it the "pen".

If we move Flaherty to the pen, we'd be doing that on the basis of his pre-June 1 performance, because since then, he has been literally the best pitcher on the Tigers.

I think if the playoffs start today, we would be looking at Skubal/Mize/Flaherty/Framber in the playoff rotation, with Melton in reserve in case one of them gets hurt or has a ... ahem ... meltdown.

[Sports_Freak]

What would Harris give up for Miller? He wouldn't come cheap but wow...a true difference maker as well as under team control for a few years....

https://www.mlb.com/news/mason-miller-padres-trade-rumors-2026-trade-deadline?lctg=4018491277&partnerId=it-20260709-18897446-mlb-1-A&utm_id=it-20260709-18897446-mlb-1-A

[NorthWoods]

I've been on the Sell to Compete bandwagon.

IF the return for Skubal is strong enough to lengthen the lineup, especially the OF where it might also improve the defense.  Replacing Jones/Malgeri/Outman with higher quality players on a day to day basis would seem to out weigh the differential between a Skubal start vs a Montero start. 

Keep Mize and go into the divisional race with a Melton - Mize - Valdez - Flaherty - Montero rotation.   IF Verlander or Jobe can make a few starts keep Montero in the 'pen.   Otherwise hope to use those two out of the pen.

[NorthWoods]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

First of all, thank you for calling it the "pen".

If we move Flaherty to the pen, we'd be doing that on the basis of his pre-June 1 performance, because since then, he has been literally the best pitcher on the Tigers.

I think if the playoffs start today, we would be looking at Skubal/Mize/Flaherty/Framber in the playoff rotation, with Melton in reserve in case one of them gets hurt or has a ... ahem ... meltdown.

In the playoffs I'd drop Valdez for Melton, feelings be damned.

[NorthWoods]

10 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

What would Harris give up for Miller? He wouldn't come cheap but wow...a true difference maker as well as under team control for a few years....

https://www.mlb.com/news/mason-miller-padres-trade-rumors-2026-trade-deadline?lctg=4018491277&partnerId=it-20260709-18897446-mlb-1-A&utm_id=it-20260709-18897446-mlb-1-A

Any 2 players in our MiLB system outside of Clark/Ranier, but they have to take Jansen too.   

[diaspora04]

1 minute ago, NorthWoods said:

In the playoffs I'd drop Valdez for Melton, feelings be damned.

Valdez may yet find it, but barring that I agree with you.

[chasfh]

22 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

In the playoffs I'd drop Valdez for Melton, feelings be damned.

Yeaaaah, that's not gonna happen. We're fans, it doesn't matter to us, but to people inside the game, it would be a huge hairy deal to sideline a newly-signed marquee starting pitcher even for just average performance. Framber would have to have a pre-June-1-Flaherty type collapse to justify it. Otherwise, good luck getting other marquee free agents to sign here.

[4hzglory]

38 minutes ago, chasfh said:

First of all, thank you for calling it the "pen".

If we move Flaherty to the pen, we'd be doing that on the basis of his pre-June 1 performance, because since then, he has been literally the best pitcher on the Tigers.

I think if the playoffs start today, we would be looking at Skubal/Mize/Flaherty/Framber in the playoff rotation, with Melton in reserve in case one of them gets hurt or has a ... ahem ... meltdown.

That could be, but in that case, Melton (who arguably has been the best pitcher as well ) would be in the "pen" and likely improve the "pen" even more.

[chasfh]

41 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Interesting Tidbit from The Athletic I didn't know. The Rays acquired Junior Caminero from the Guardians in 2021 for pitcher Tobias Myers.  Thank goodness Cleveland missed on him.  According to the article, he wasn't the Rays first choice either, so they almost missed on him too.   

 

18yr olds who haven't played stateside are a long shot, but when they hit, they can definitely hit big.

I think this may be one of those situations in which a hitter who is scuffling in one system goes to another system and thrives. I have long thought that the majority, maybe even vast majority, of the 780 major leaguers playing at any given moment would be All-Stars if they were in the system best suited to their talent, temperament, and work ethic. When it comes to hitters, there are some systems where the environment is so optimal that just about anyone going there has All-Star performance, like the Brewers, and to lesser degrees. the Red Sox, Orioles, and Twins. The Tigers are toward the bottom on this measure, although not as bad the the White Sox or Angels.

[Sports_Freak]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

Yeaaaah, that's not gonna happen. We're fans, it doesn't matter to us, but to people inside the game, it would be a huge hairy deal to sideline a newly-signed marquee starting pitcher even for just average performance. Framber would have to have a pre-June-1-Flaherty type collapse to justify it. Otherwise, good luck getting other marquee free agents to sign here.

What do you need in the playoffs? A 3 man or 4 man rotation? If Skubal doesn't get dealt, I would think Valdez may be out...he really is our weak link. And I think most free agents to be would understand our desire to win and be even more willing to sign here.

[4hzglory]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

I think this may be one of those situations in which a hitter who is scuffling in one system goes to another system and thrives. I have long thought that the majority, maybe even vast majority, of the 780 major leaguers playing at any given moment would be All-Stars if they were in the system best suited to their talent, temperament, and work ethic. When it comes to hitters, there are some systems where the environment is so optimal that just about anyone going there has All-Star performance, like the Brewers, and to lesser degrees. the Red Sox, Orioles, and Twins. The Tigers are toward the bottom on this measure, although not as bad the the White Sox or Angels.

It very well could be, but he also had a level of talent that evidently wasn't seen by the Guardians and even the Rays (for them to ask for other players first).  I do agree with your theory, but Caminero isn't just an All-Star, he's one of the better young players to come through the Rays system in their history.

[KL2]

2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

What do you need in the playoffs? A 3 man or 4 man rotation? If Skubal doesn't get dealt, I would think Valdez may be out...he really is our weak link. And I think most free agents to be would understand our desire to win and be even more willing to sign here.

Um not true at all

[4hzglory]

6 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

What do you need in the playoffs? A 3 man or 4 man rotation? If Skubal doesn't get dealt, I would think Valdez may be out...he really is our weak link. And I think most free agents to be would understand our desire to win and be even more willing to sign here.

I'm with Chasfh on this one, it's not like Valdez has been bad, he just hasn't been dominant.  If he was awful, yes.  If he was signed to a 1 year deal and/or had a history of being willing to do what ever is asked without getting upset, maybe.  This is our highest paid player for the next 2 seasons beyond this who has a history of letting his emotions get the best of him.  He also has considerable postseason experience.  He isn't getting dropped from the playoff rotation no matter what us fans think.  

Now he will be on a much shorter leash than in the regular season, so if we are seeing "mediocre" Valdez, I think he gets pulled quickly.

Edited July 9 by 4hzglory

[NorthWoods]

18 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Yeaaaah, that's not gonna happen. We're fans, it doesn't matter to us, but to people inside the game, it would be a huge hairy deal to sideline a newly-signed marquee starting pitcher even for just average performance. Framber would have to have a pre-June-1-Flaherty type collapse to justify it. Otherwise, good luck getting other marquee free agents to sign here.

If both are pitching as they have recently then it would seem to me that any prospective FA would be more impressed by an organization that went for the win rather than placating Framber Valdez's hurt feelings.

[Tigermojo]

I like how we're worrying about the playoff rotation, when the last two years everyone has been injured and it's been Skubal ? ? ? Whatever Hinch could cobble together. 

Ilitch is going to buy unless something catastrophic happens. The AL Central is wide open and so is the wild card.

[4hzglory]

12 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

I like how we're worrying about the playoff rotation, when the last two years everyone has been injured and it's been Skubal ? ? ? Whatever Hinch could cobble together. 

Ilitch is going to buy unless something catastrophic happens. The AL Central is wide open and so is the wild card.

He isn't going to buy as there is no wiggle room with the luxury tax.  If he does "buy", he's also going to have to sell in order to stay under.  Dropping from a 1st round pick to a 4th (under the current system) is too much to risk to cross the tax line.  They also would lose their competitive balance pick next year if they went over.

 

I do agree that we are likely not to sell, but there is not room for any outright buying.  And releasing Jones (which sure better happen sometime) will only add $ to our payroll, albeit minimal $, but as we are currently over the tax slightly (per Edman's calculations) it does matter.  That limited flexibility is the one reason I could see them moving Skubal for the right package as it would give them breathing room with the tax, but you would have to get players that can help now as well as the future and I don't know that that kind of package is out there.   Maybe they could move Torres and give some wiggle room, or pay down Jansen and move him?  Not sure, but they are in a tight place luxury tax wise.

[Tigermojo]

2 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

He isn't going to buy as there is no wiggle room with the luxury tax.  If he does "buy", he's also going to have to sell in order to stay under.  Dropping from a 1st round pick to a 4th (under the current system) is too much to risk to cross the tax line.  They also would lose their competitive balance pick next year if they went over.

 

I do agree that we are likely not to sell, but there is not room for any outright buying.  And releasing Jones (which sure better happen sometime) will only add $ to our payroll, albeit minimal $, but as we are currently over the tax slightly (per Edman's calculations) it does matter.  That limited flexibility is the one reason I could see them moving Skubal for the right package as it would give them breathing room with the tax, but you would have to get players that can help now as well as the future and I don't know that that kind of package is out there.   Maybe they could move Torres and give some wiggle room, or pay down Jansen and move him?  Not sure, but they are in a tight place luxury tax wise.

They knew all that when they went so close to the tax before the season. I think Ilitch will buy.

[Sports_Freak]

40 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

I'm with Chasfh on this one, it's not like Valdez has been bad, he just hasn't been dominant.  If he was awful, yes.  If he was signed to a 1 year deal and/or had a history of being willing to do what ever is asked without getting upset, maybe.  This is our highest paid player for the next 2 seasons beyond this who has a history of letting his emotions get the best of him.  He also has considerable postseason experience.  He isn't getting dropped from the playoff rotation no matter what us fans think.  

Now he will be on a much shorter leash than in the regular season, so if we are seeing "mediocre" Valdez, I think he gets pulled quickly.

Yeah, he hasn't been totally horrible. But lately, he's been our 5th best starter. Maybe he'll turn it around, tonight would be a good time to start. I just don't see any free agent turning down millions of dollars because we didnt allow a signed free agent pitcher with a 5.00 ERA (if it were to get that high) start in a playoff game. Hopefully, it's an issue we get to see...making the playoffs, not a 5.00 ERA...🤣🤣

[Sports_Freak]

18 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

That limited flexibility is the one reason I could see them moving Skubal for the right package as it would give them breathing room with the tax, but you would have to get players that can help now as well as the future and I don't know that that kind of package is out there.   

Agreed 100%. Moving Skubal for payroll relief and adding a player(s) to help the current team would make us both sellers and buyers...the state of baseball in 2026.

[Graterol]

10 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Agreed 100%. Moving Skubal for payroll relief and adding a player(s) to help the current team would make us both sellers and buyers...the state of baseball 

I actually think that is the most risk averse position to take. Assuming Torres is back, we could still use one infielder, an upgrade on Tork, a DH, and two OFs. Lots of easy upgrades. And the downgrade from Skubal to say Verlander/Jobe/Montero, while significant, could largely be offset by the right moves and position the team better for the long haul. Assuming we get prospects for Skubal, what could we get if we flipped some of those plus carp and/or Tork? This is where DD was useful but I don’t think Scottie is as imaginative.

[theroundsquare]

nobody is sending the tigers anything in exchange for tork

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, NorthWoods said:

If both are pitching as they have recently then it would seem to me that any prospective FA would be more impressed by an organization that went for the win rather than placating Framber Valdez's hurt feelings.

Some truth on the surface, though I don't believe players are as prejudiced against Framber as fans might be, even taking the cross-up incident into account. Players are super aware of and sensitive to how organizations treat their players, and if they see the Tigers sidelining Framber, a premier free agent sign, for merely average performance and seemingly out of spite, I would think they would be very wary of getting themselves into a situation where they themselves might be sidelined for less than stellar performance. 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

He isn't going to buy as there is no wiggle room with the luxury tax.  If he does "buy", he's also going to have to sell in order to stay under.  Dropping from a 1st round pick to a 4th (under the current system) is too much to risk to cross the tax line.  They also would lose their competitive balance pick next year if they went over.

Would accepting a salary paydown along with the player make a difference with the tax situation? I'm talking about technically, not in terms of whom we'd have to send out to get that.

[4hzglory]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

Would accepting a salary paydown along with the player make a difference with the tax situation? I'm talking about technically, not in terms of whom we'd have to send out to get that.

Edman would be the one to confirm, but I believe if another team paid all but the minimum, we’d only take on the remaining on our tax.  
 

Similarly , if we paid down Skubal’s contract to get a better prospect, I’m almost certain what portion we pay counts against us for tax purposes.

[Tenacious D]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

There's a really good chance you would not be happy with him.

A good example of buying might include someone like Jansen and/or Torres to take on another salary in return.  Would Likely require us to enhance the prospect package we would send to offset the other team taking on salary.

There is zero scenario that we surrender a 1st round pick as penalty for going over the luxury tax.  If we’re buyers at the deadline, it will be modest pickups unless we can move another undesirable contract in the process.