chasfh Posted July 9 Posted July 9 24 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Why is Mize listed second? Shouldn't the senior big money guys have top priority? Feel free to move them around in whatever order you believe the Tigers would have them go. That's the order I think the Tigers would go with in the playoffs starting July 9. Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 9 Posted July 9 42 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Mize should be the 4th starter. Skubal - Melton - Montero - Mize? 1 Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 9 Posted July 9 53 minutes ago, chasfh said: Feel free to move them around in whatever order you believe the Tigers would have them go. That's the order I think the Tigers would go with in the playoffs starting July 9. The 4th starter designation becomes in important in the playoffs because it can be potentially skipped. What happens if Melton is one of the best pitchers in the league in the second half (something I think is very possible)? Does he go in to the pen for post-season? Quote
chasfh Posted July 9 Posted July 9 27 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: The 4th starter designation becomes in important in the playoffs because it can be potentially skipped. What happens if Melton is one of the best pitchers in the league in the second half (something I think is very possible)? Does he go in to the pen for post-season? Then he would almost certainly be a playoff starter. We’re on the same page there. Quote
monkeytargets39 Posted July 9 Posted July 9 The playoff starters would probably be heavily influenced by what team we are playing. If they’re lefty heavy, then a Skubal/Framber 1-2 makes sense. If it’s a RH team then maybe you go Skubal/Mize/Melton Quote
gehringer_2 Posted July 10 Posted July 10 3 hours ago, chasfh said: Feel free to move them around in whatever order you believe the Tigers would have them go. That's the order I think the Tigers would go with in the playoffs starting July 9. Nice that Framber did a good job of upholding your faith in him tonight. Quote
chasfh Posted July 10 Posted July 10 11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Nice that Framber did a good job of upholding your faith in him tonight. I know right? 😄 Framber’s not anything like my dog in some fight. I was just saying that I can’t imagine—again, in a world where the playoffs start on July 9—the Tigers, having acquired Framber for his ace potential and playoff experience, then benching him in favor of a rookie on a heater because of a .172 BABIP, just because he’s had unexpectedly average results. I think Framber would have to pitch himself out of the rotation entirely for that to happen, and i don;t know how bad he would have to be for how long for that to even happen. 1 Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 10 Posted July 10 If anyone has been behind Valdez this year, it's been me. I think he is very capable of finishing strong and being ace-like in post-season. Prior to tonight though, I had not been impressed. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted July 10 Posted July 10 Tigers have played 625 ball since June 1 (20-12). If they play this pace the rest of the way they finish with 87 wins. Wouldn't that be an odd coincidence? Quote
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 10 Posted July 10 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: Tigers have played 625 ball since June 1 (20-12). If they play this pace the rest of the way they finish with 87 wins. Wouldn't that be an odd coincidence? Now we go back to playing real teams though...... Oof. Shall be interesting to see how we do vs the Phillies. Quote
SeattleMike Posted July 10 Posted July 10 1 hour ago, AlaskanTigersFan said: Now we go back to playing real teams though...... Oof. Shall be interesting to see how we do vs the Phillies. The Tigers have a winning record against winning teams. Beating good teams has not really been an issue. Quote
4hzglory Posted July 10 Posted July 10 5 hours ago, SeattleMike said: The Tigers have a winning record against winning teams. Beating good teams has not really been an issue. Yeah, they have the best record in the AL against teams over .500 Quote
chasfh Posted July 10 Posted July 10 There are a few things that could explain this: they’re taking good teams seriously and sloughing off against bad teams; Hinch’s strategies work only against good teams and not bad teams; Harris structured their roster such that they can beat only good teams and not bad teams; they simply forgot how to play baseball in May, and, also, before April 9; injuries hobbled them at certain times during the season and cost them wins; they’re a good team who’ve experienced bad luck at the wrong times; they are in reality a bad team just going on a lucky heater for the last six weeks; they’re no better than a .500 club that simply goes on wild swings for weeks at a time. Which do you think explain our situation? Quote
Edman85 Posted July 10 Posted July 10 2 minutes ago, chasfh said: There are a few things that could explain this: they’re taking good teams seriously and sloughing off against bad teams; Hinch’s strategies work only against good teams and not bad teams; Harris structured their roster such that they can beat only good teams and not bad teams; they simply forgot how to play baseball in May, and, also, before April 9; injuries hobbled them at certain times during the season and cost them wins; they’re a good team who’ve experienced bad luck at the wrong times; they are in reality a bad team just going on a lucky heater for the last six weeks; they’re no better than a .500 club that simply goes on wild swings for weeks at a time. Which do you think explain our situation? My Occam's razor explanation is usually randomness. I will say we definitely caught the Yankees at the right time, when Judge and others were out with injury. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted July 10 Posted July 10 (edited) 13 minutes ago, chasfh said: Which do you think explain our situation? Edman notes that random noise inputs are always high in baseball which is very true, yet some factors are also identifiable as trend drivers: 1-Melton 2-Faherty has found home plate. 3-Skubal has returned 4-Montero in the bp 5-Tork and McKinstry had deep May slumps 6-Perez is not in the OF. 7-HYL is better than Workman 8-Kenley and Vest getting less work at leverage 9-Melton Edited July 10 by gehringer_2 1 Quote
romad1 Posted July 10 Posted July 10 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: 1-Melton 2-Faherty has found home plate. 3-Skubal has returned 4-Montero in the bp 5-Tork and McKinstry had deep May slumps 6-Perez is not in the OF. 7-HYL is better than Workman 8-Kenley and Vest getting less work at leverage 9-Melton I concur. I hope some warmth comes to Vierling's bat as well. Quote
Tigermojo Posted July 10 Author Posted July 10 20 minutes ago, romad1 said: I concur. I hope some warmth comes to Vierling's bat as well. Looking at Vierling's stats his exit velocity is down a bit, his K rate is the lowest by far and his babip is 100 points lower than normal. Contact quality might be down a bit but it looks like he's making more contact with a lot of bad luck. Quote
Tenacious D Posted July 10 Posted July 10 May was supposed to be a big month for us, playing teams with bad records that we should have matched up well against. Murphys Law kicked in with key injuries and a team slump (offense and pen). We’re seeing the team that played so well during the first half of last season. Winning 2 of 3 vs Philadelphia will help validate that this isn’t just a hot streak. I predict a Tigers win tonight, loss tomorrow and toss-up on Sunday. Quote
casimir Posted July 10 Posted July 10 23 hours ago, Nate7474 said: I don’t think that is a fair take. He’s only been here for 3 offseasons/drafts and is already getting dividends from picks his system made. If you go back and look at the farm system he inherited at the start of 2023 it was pretty rough. Sure pitching depth and outfield depth need help but I would argue that these are easier to find plug and play players compared to the infield. I assume when you mention plug and play, you refer to major league ready players? I can buy that to a point. On the other hand, if OF depth is easier to acquire, where are the prospects? CF has been a bit of a struggle the last two seasons. Fortunately Baez was able to handle it last season and fortunately there was SS depth to allow Baez to go out there. Quote
1984Echoes Posted July 10 Posted July 10 14 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: Tigers have played 625 ball since June 1 (20-12). If they play this pace the rest of the way they finish with 87 wins. Wouldn't that be an odd coincidence? If the Tigers keep winning the rest of July... I could see Harris doing some buying and selling. I guess being so close to the tax has an impact on what we can do at the deadline... So in order to bring in a guy or two at reliever or the OF or whatever... A guy or two on the ML roster might have to also be sent out. If we keep winning, I think Harris just holds onto Skubal for the balance... But maybe one of Flaherty or Mize could get sent out in the right package/ return? Torres is close to getting back... Does he move Torres, or Hao Yu Lee (or even Max Anderson for that matter) for a reliever? What other moves could he make that are both buying and selling? Just a couple thoughts I had... Quote
4hzglory Posted July 10 Posted July 10 43 minutes ago, casimir said: I assume when you mention plug and play, you refer to major league ready players? I can buy that to a point. On the other hand, if OF depth is easier to acquire, where are the prospects? CF has been a bit of a struggle the last two seasons. Fortunately Baez was able to handle it last season and fortunately there was SS depth to allow Baez to go out there. CF is a perfect example of how it's relatively easy to find a "plug and play" replacement. No, they aren't going to be stars, but Outman didn't cost anything except a 40 man roster spot and our OF as a whole has improved significantly since getting him. As far as where are the prospects? By this time next year we should have our CF who projects to be much more than an average CF in place for the long term. I could also see Callahan pushing next year for one of the OF spots as "Bless You Boys" has been evaluating him and he really is similar to Carpenter at that time, except he has the speed and ability to play all 3 OF positions (and is over 20 SB so far). Again, another Harris draft pick. Quote
4hzglory Posted July 10 Posted July 10 (edited) 29 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: If the Tigers keep winning the rest of July... I could see Harris doing some buying and selling. I guess being so close to the tax has an impact on what we can do at the deadline... So in order to bring in a guy or two at reliever or the OF or whatever... A guy or two on the ML roster might have to also be sent out. If we keep winning, I think Harris just holds onto Skubal for the balance... But maybe one of Flaherty or Mize could get sent out in the right package/ return? Torres is close to getting back... Does he move Torres, or Hao Yu Lee (or even Max Anderson for that matter) for a reliever? What other moves could he make that are both buying and selling? Just a couple thoughts I had... Lee or Anderson won't provide much salary relief as far as the cap goes. Torres would, but I think he has enough of a presence on the team, not to mention his RH Bat that I don't think he's likely to go. I definitely don't see them trading Lee as he's the perfect Torres replacement for next year and has already shown a lot of progress in getting aquainted with the majors. I'm also not really sure how much we need a reliever. If Montero can stay in the pen the rest of the regular season, we've already seen how much that has improved the relief crew. If we trade Flaherty or Mize for 2 relievers for example, we are really only gaining 1 as Montero would have to go back to the rotation. And IMO having Mize/Flaherty is worth more than gaining 1 reliever. Come playoff time, we will have Jobe available and another starter (won't get into debating which one) in the bullpen as well. I think it's very likely we stay with who we have. We also should be getting Jobe available right around the deadline to displace another reliever for the rest of the regular season. Edited July 10 by 4hzglory Quote
CaliforniaDreaming Posted July 10 Posted July 10 If we are close to in it at the trade deadline, I don't see Harris making any trades. The reasoning will be that getting guys back from injury (Torres, Jobe, Verlander, Baez) will be the way we will improve the team for the second half of the season. Quote
chasfh Posted July 10 Posted July 10 I don't know, I don't have as much confidence in Montero maintaining his run of good results as a reliever as seemingly everyone else does. He's a high-command/low-stuff pitcher who seems to be skating by on a low .224 BABIP and a well-below-average 6.5% HR/FB rate. I'm not saying he's a bad pitcher getting lucky, because that's not what the deal is, just that if we were to rely on him to be a shutdown reliever for the rest of the season, I think we're going to experience disappointment at inopportune times. Quote
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