2026 Trade deadline

[4hzglory]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't know, I don't have as much confidence in Montero maintaining his run of good results as a reliever as seemingly everyone else does. He's a high-command/low-stuff pitcher who seems to be skating by on a low .224 BABIP and a well-below-average 6.5% HR/FB rate. I'm not saying he's a bad pitcher getting lucky, because that's not what the deal is, just that if we were to rely on him to be a shutdown reliever for the rest of the season, I think we're going to experience disappointment at inopportune times. 

We may some, but I think his stuff is better than he gets credit for.  And he is able to showcase it more as a reliever where he can consistently sit above 96 and use his off speed pitches without having to worry about the 2nd time through the order.

[gehringer_2]

34 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't know, I don't have as much confidence in Montero maintaining his run of good results as a reliever as seemingly everyone else does. He's a high-command/low-stuff pitcher who seems to be skating by on a low .224 BABIP and a well-below-average 6.5% HR/FB rate. I'm not saying he's a bad pitcher getting lucky, because that's not what the deal is, just that if we were to rely on him to be a shutdown reliever for the rest of the season, I think we're going to experience disappointment at inopportune times. 

there is reason to be worried when you look at Keider's peripherals - a lot of them haven't changed enough that you would infer the improvement in his performance this season. There are a couple of things  - we've talked about whether he can sustain the low walk rate - but at least that is something that could be a real change as he has matured and his command improved. The other is that one of the reasons the BaBIP is down is that he's getting more pop-ups. That can be a sign of a livelier FB and to some degree better sequencing, he might be able to sustain some part of the improvement there. 

But overall it's fair to be sceptical that he can sustain the WHIP under 1.00.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

... I'm also not really sure how much we need a reliever.  If Montero can stay in the pen the rest of the regular season, we've already seen how much that has improved the relief crew.  If we trade Flaherty or Mize for 2 relievers for example, we are really only gaining 1 as Montero would have to go back to the rotation.  And IMO having Mize/Flaherty is worth more than gaining 1 reliever.  Come playoff time, we will have Jobe available and another starter (won't get into debating which one) in the bullpen as well.   I think it's very likely we stay with who we have.  We also should be getting Jobe available right around the deadline to displace another reliever for the rest of the regular season.

I could see this.

To add to it: If Verlander pitches this season at all... I could see Hinch asking him if he could use him in any way possible that he sees fit in order to get wins in the playoffs (or to get us there...).

If JV is open to it... I could see him just as effective as Melton/Montero in 1 to 3 inning stints. He could let it just "air out" in shorter bullpen stints.

I won't speak to whether he can get/ remain healthy...

But I would say: At least at this point, I'd have more confidence in JV/ Montero/ Melton closing out games than Jansen.

Just my 2 cents.

[1984Echoes]

46 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

there is reason to be worried when you look at Keider's peripherals - a lot of them haven't changed enough that you would infer the improvement in his performance this season. There are a couple of things  - we've talked about whether he can sustain the low walk rate - but at least that is something that could be a real change as he has matured and his command improved. The other is that one of the reasons the BaBIP is down is that he's getting more pop-ups. That can be a sign of a livelier FB and to some degree better sequencing, he might be able to sustain some part of the improvement there. 

But overall it's fair to be sceptical that he can sustain the WHIP under 1.00.

I've had a lot of conversations with my brother about Montero the past couple of years. He's loved Montero from the start. But, prior to this year, I thought he was reliever material only.

I told him Montero has 3 problems:

1) He's not consistent. His command waxes and wanes far too often.

2) His secondary pitches aren't good. He only had two pitches that were really any good (I think it was sinker/ slider before this year)... One pitch off (consistency) and he gets hit pretty hard. No secondaries means he has no other options to turn to. I argued for the past two years that Montero should be in the bullpen and ONLY in the bullpen, unless he fixes these two... and thirdly:

3) He gave up far too many baserunners as a starter to be effective. At least in the minors. 1.42 WHIP (I HATE high WHIP's like that) and how is he going to do any better in MLB? Maybe this was a direct result of (1) and (2),,, But too many baserunners just irks me.

I saw a couple games (in the prior two years) where he dominated with just those two pitches however... so... Bullpen only? Or...

This year... from what I've seen of Montero's starts: His secondaries have improved immensely. I'm seeing effective sinker/ slider/ changeup/ curve. Now, this is eye test only, so feel free to disagree or post pitch numbers that show differently. I don't think he has a great 4-seamer but it's good enough. I'm seeing great movement on not just two pitches though... but on several. And I'm seeing a lot more consistency in hitting the strike zone and hitting zone quadrants (command). His consistency, command, and secondaries are FAR better than I've ever seen him before this year.

I told my brother: "This is the FIRST year that I actually believe he could become a mainstay in the rotation."

Now, again... just my eyes alone...

My 2 cents.

 

 

Edited July 10 by 1984Echoes

[4hzglory]

20 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Now we go back to playing real teams though...... Oof. Shall be interesting to see how we do vs the Phillies. 

I’m sorry you’re probably disappointed they keep winning, and the odds of any significant selling of players let alone a fire sale, keep dropping.

 

With the Mariners losing, a solid chance of being 2.5 out after tonight.

[chasfh]

6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

there is reason to be worried when you look at Keider's peripherals - a lot of them haven't changed enough that you would infer the improvement in his performance this season. There are a couple of things  - we've talked about whether he can sustain the low walk rate - but at least that is something that could be a real change as he has matured and his command improved. The other is that one of the reasons the BaBIP is down is that he's getting more pop-ups. That can be a sign of a livelier FB and to some degree better sequencing, he might be able to sustain some part of the improvement there. 

But overall it's fair to be sceptical that he can sustain the WHIP under 1.00.

Granted, in a world where anything can happen, Keider could continue to get the same results on the same peripherals for the rest of this season, and I am most definitely rooting for that. All I'm really saying is, don't be surprised if he doesn't, and I would hope Tigers management aren't counting on him keeping it up.

[casimir]

9 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

CF is a perfect example of how it's relatively easy to find a "plug and play" replacement.  No, they aren't going to be stars, but Outman didn't cost anything except a 40 man roster spot and our OF as a whole has improved significantly since getting him.  As far as where are the prospects?  By this time next year we should have our CF who projects to be much more than an average CF in place for the long term.  

I could also see Callahan pushing next year for one of the OF spots as "Bless You Boys" has been evaluating him and he really is similar to Carpenter at that time, except he has the speed and ability to play all 3 OF positions (and is over 20 SB so far).  Again, another Harris draft pick.  

I’m not sure Outman is a great example of easily attainable MLB quality CF depth.  His defense has been very helpful.  He’s been more valuable than Jahmai Jones in that regard.  But his bat is putrid.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

I’m sorry you’re probably disappointed they keep winning, and the odds of any significant selling of players let alone a fire sale, keep dropping.

 

With the Mariners losing, a solid chance of being 2.5 out after tonight.

2.5 out of the wild card it is.  And only 4.5 out of the division lead.

Somebody is letting the Tigers get hot.

[holygoat]

9 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

We also should be getting Jobe available right around the deadline to displace another reliever for the rest of the regular season.

If Jobe can give us something this year, cool, but I'm not really counting on him for anything until next season.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

14 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

I’m sorry you’re probably disappointed they keep winning, and the odds of any significant selling of players let alone a fire sale, keep dropping.

 

With the Mariners losing, a solid chance of being 2.5 out after tonight.

Not going to lie, I'm pretty conflicted. 

I honestly do not think this team is WS worthy. I think even if they make the playoffs, they will not go far. So if they sell, they can get back some really big core pieces that will allow them to be in a lot better chance of actually succeeding. Yet at the same time, I don't want them to lose. I just think of the Angels and how far back they got because they didn't trade Ohtani. They still haven't recovered nor do they even see light at the end of the tunnel.

This team doesn't have a great bullpen, the lineup really isn't that great as we have three players with an OPS that is above league average, and our rotation isn't all that strong outside of Skubal and Mize. The rest of the rotation is just ok. 

Imagine getting back two or three more everyday players that can truly pelt the ball to add to our lineup. Now instead of three deep, we're five or six deep (I'm talking true studs that every team wants on their team, not just your ho hum players). And if we get a rotation mainstay to add to Melton and Jobe to build a core starting rotation around. 

I think where I diverge most from the board is the actual value I think we'd get back vs what the rest of you. I think most people think we'd get back is a package like we got from JV when we traded him to Houston. What I think we'll get back is two top 50 prospects (one in the top 15 of all prospects in the game) and a pitcher (Example: De Paula, Sirota, Sheehan or Ferris from the Dodgers.). I think Mize can get us back another top 100 prospect as well, plus a flyer pick. I'd rather be setup for the next decade and be able to make a run for it every year, then putting all our eggs in the basket for this year. 

If we lose Skubal and Mize for nothing this year, we just lost out on four to six impact players that we could have had for another decade. I'd love to add two more McGonigle type caliber players to our lineup for the next decade. But if we don't sell, we wont have the choice, then where are we next year and beyond? 

I want to be clear, I'm not a Tigers hater. I am really conflicted because I do want our Tigers to win. I just don't think that even if they get to the show, they match up with half the teams in the league. They have a lot of work to do to get on that level. They have the chance to add up so much talent, that could launch the Tigers for the next decade of dominance. So do you risk it all this year knowing your team isn't that good and still go for it knowing even if you make it to the playoffs that you will likely be bounced in the first round? Or do you setup your team where THEY become the juggernaut that every team fears playing going into the next decade?

Detroit teams have one thing in common. They are so used to winning in the past, that they never truly finish rebuilds properly. The Lions did it, the Pistons did it, the Red Wings traded a 1st rounder for an average defenseman last year just to make the playoffs so they are doing it, and the Tigers have done it under Al Avila. This is their chance to do it right. But they might blow it in my opinion and then we're all sitting here in circle therapy bitching about why our team hasn't been good for 20 years.......  

[chasfh]

Remember the White Sox white flag trade in 1997? Only 3-1/2 games out of the division lead, the White Sox sold off three veterans for six minor leaguers so they could become a perennial contender. Very controversial at the time. And the White Sox did get back to the playoffs in 2000, only three years later, and to the World Series only eight years later, and then back to the playoffs again only eleven years later.

[4hzglory]

45 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Not going to lie, I'm pretty conflicted. 

I honestly do not think this team is WS worthy. I think even if they make the playoffs, they will not go far. So if they sell, they can get back some really big core pieces that will allow them to be in a lot better chance of actually succeeding. Yet at the same time, I don't want them to lose. I just think of the Angels and how far back they got because they didn't trade Ohtani. They still haven't recovered nor do they even see light at the end of the tunnel.

This team doesn't have a great bullpen, the lineup really isn't that great as we have three players with an OPS that is above league average, and our rotation isn't all that strong outside of Skubal and Mize. The rest of the rotation is just ok. 

Imagine getting back two or three more everyday players that can truly pelt the ball to add to our lineup. Now instead of three deep, we're five or six deep (I'm talking true studs that every team wants on their team, not just your ho hum players). And if we get a rotation mainstay to add to Melton and Jobe to build a core starting rotation around. 

I think where I diverge most from the board is the actual value I think we'd get back vs what the rest of you. I think most people think we'd get back is a package like we got from JV when we traded him to Houston. What I think we'll get back is two top 50 prospects (one in the top 15 of all prospects in the game) and a pitcher (Example: De Paula, Sirota, Sheehan or Ferris from the Dodgers.). I think Mize can get us back another top 100 prospect as well, plus a flyer pick. I'd rather be setup for the next decade and be able to make a run for it every year, then putting all our eggs in the basket for this year. 

If we lose Skubal and Mize for nothing this year, we just lost out on four to six impact players that we could have had for another decade. I'd love to add two more McGonigle type caliber players to our lineup for the next decade. But if we don't sell, we wont have the choice, then where are we next year and beyond? 

I want to be clear, I'm not a Tigers hater. I am really conflicted because I do want our Tigers to win. I just don't think that even if they get to the show, they match up with half the teams in the league. They have a lot of work to do to get on that level. They have the chance to add up so much talent, that could launch the Tigers for the next decade of dominance. So do you risk it all this year knowing your team isn't that good and still go for it knowing even if you make it to the playoffs that you will likely be bounced in the first round? Or do you setup your team where THEY become the juggernaut that every team fears playing going into the next decade?

Detroit teams have one thing in common. They are so used to winning in the past, that they never truly finish rebuilds properly. The Lions did it, the Pistons did it, the Red Wings traded a 1st rounder for an average defenseman last year just to make the playoffs so they are doing it, and the Tigers have done it under Al Avila. This is their chance to do it right. But they might blow it in my opinion and then we're all sitting here in circle therapy bitching about why our team hasn't been good for 20 years.......  

Don’t have time to go through all of this, but in regards to the lineup, I think you overestimate what average OPS is.  According to AI, current average for MLB is .721.  Counting Dingler, we have 5 regulars over that.  Tork is .733 and Carpenter is .766.  Torres would actually make 6.  The team OPS is basically league average at .716 and on the upward trend.  Historically there are numbers that are historically worse than we’ve ever seen for some spots in the lineup, but I think we get jaded thinking that’s only us.  I’m shocked in seeing most every team has a regular or 2 now with ba’s in the low .200s or below and ops in the .500s (or below)

 

 

Edited July 11 by 4hzglory

[SeattleMike]

28 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Not going to lie, I'm pretty conflicted. 

I honestly do not think this team is WS worthy. I think even if they make the playoffs, they will not go far. So if they sell, they can get back some really big core pieces that will allow them to be in a lot better chance of actually succeeding. Yet at the same time, I don't want them to lose. I just think of the Angels and how far back they got because they didn't trade Ohtani. They still haven't recovered nor do they even see light at the end of the tunnel.

This team doesn't have a great bullpen, the lineup really isn't that great as we have three players with an OPS that is above league average, and our rotation isn't all that strong outside of Skubal and Mize. The rest of the rotation is just ok. 

Imagine getting back two or three more everyday players that can truly pelt the ball to add to our lineup. Now instead of three deep, we're five or six deep (I'm talking true studs that every team wants on their team, not just your ho hum players). And if we get a rotation mainstay to add to Melton and Jobe to build a core starting rotation around. 

I think where I diverge most from the board is the actual value I think we'd get back vs what the rest of you. I think most people think we'd get back is a package like we got from JV when we traded him to Houston. What I think we'll get back is two top 50 prospects (one in the top 15 of all prospects in the game) and a pitcher (Example: De Paula, Sirota, Sheehan or Ferris from the Dodgers.). I think Mize can get us back another top 100 prospect as well, plus a flyer pick. I'd rather be setup for the next decade and be able to make a run for it every year, then putting all our eggs in the basket for this year. 

If we lose Skubal and Mize for nothing this year, we just lost out on four to six impact players that we could have had for another decade. I'd love to add two more McGonigle type caliber players to our lineup for the next decade. But if we don't sell, we wont have the choice, then where are we next year and beyond? 

I want to be clear, I'm not a Tigers hater. I am really conflicted because I do want our Tigers to win. I just don't think that even if they get to the show, they match up with half the teams in the league. They have a lot of work to do to get on that level. They have the chance to add up so much talent, that could launch the Tigers for the next decade of dominance. So do you risk it all this year knowing your team isn't that good and still go for it knowing even if you make it to the playoffs that you will likely be bounced in the first round? Or do you setup your team where THEY become the juggernaut that every team fears playing going into the next decade?

Detroit teams have one thing in common. They are so used to winning in the past, that they never truly finish rebuilds properly. The Lions did it, the Pistons did it, the Red Wings traded a 1st rounder for an average defenseman last year just to make the playoffs so they are doing it, and the Tigers have done it under Al Avila. This is their chance to do it right. But they might blow it in my opinion and then we're all sitting here in circle therapy bitching about why our team hasn't been good for 20 years.......  

Four to six impact players for Skubal and Mize? In reality, the Tigers would be beating the odds in a big way if they even got one impact player. And not because Harris is a boob or anything like that. It's just fairly unusual that deadline trade deals bring back anything really significant. Impossible? Of course not. It does happen. 

But I also have to disagree with you that the Tigers have no shot at making the WS if they get into the playoffs. The AL is garbage and every team that makes the AL playoffs this year will have an equally good chance to make a run. I don't care who they would then play in a WS. A Skubal, Mize, Melton, Valdez/Flaherty rotation would give them more than a punchers chance to win it all.

[SeattleMike]

16 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Don’t have time to go through all of this, but in regards to the lineup, I think you overestimate what average OPS is.  According to AI, current average for MLB is .721.  Counting Dingler, we have 5 regulars over that.  Tork is .733 and Carpenter is .766.  Torres would actually make 6.  The team OPS is basically league average at .721 and on the upward trend.  Historically there are numbers that are historically worse than we’ve ever seen for some spots in the lineup, but I think we get jaded thinking that’s only us.  I’m shocked in seeing most every team has a regular or 2 now with ba’s in the low .200s or below and ops in the .500s (or below)

 

 

The offense was off the charts awful in May. In March/April they were 6th in MLB wRC+. Since June 1 they have also been 6th in MLB. I'm thinking May was probably an outlier. 

[SoCalTiger]

We're all in at this point in time and there isn't any debating it.

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

We're all in at this point in time and there isn't any debating it.

Think this is right. The best outcome is we find a way to resign Skubs and/or Mize.

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Think this is right. The best outcome is we find a way to resign Skubs and/or Mize.

so there is one possible outcome that could give us a fair shot at keeping Skubal - and that would be if none of the owners want to be the guy that gives up the last ginormous contract before the CBA (and strike) changes the landscape, brings in a cap, and leaves them looking foolish. Of course there are a thousand reasons arguing it won't play out that way, but it could.

[4hzglory]

16 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

so there is one possible outcome that could give us a fair shot at keeping Skubal - and that would be if none of the owners want to be the guy that gives up the last ginormous contract before the CBA (and strike) changes the landscape, brings in a cap, and leaves them looking foolish. Of course there are a thousand reasons arguing it won't play out that way, but it could.

Also, if the owner's get what they want - I don't think they will - contracts will be limited to 5-6 years and a pct of the cap, with 1 extra year and higher pct for existing teams - similar to the NBA

[SoCalTiger]

Max Anderson and Hau You Lee are duplicates. Get Glayber back and trade one of them for a solid bullpen arm hopefully with more than one year of control. I think that's enough to win the American League and have more than a punchers chance to beat the Dodgers -Braves or Brewers. 

[gehringer_2]

43 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Max Anderson and Hau You Lee are duplicates. Get Glayber back and trade one of them for a solid bullpen arm hopefully with more than one year of control. I think that's enough to win the American League and have more than a punchers chance to beat the Dodgers -Braves or Brewers. 

Is Anderson's glove playable in the majors? I seem to recall that was an issue for him.

[4hzglory]

1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

Max Anderson and Hau You Lee are duplicates. Get Glayber back and trade one of them for a solid bullpen arm hopefully with more than one year of control. I think that's enough to win the American League and have more than a punchers chance to beat the Dodgers -Braves or Brewers. 

Unless we get rid of salary also, we can’t trade Anderson for an established reliever.  Not sure where we’re at now, but Edman’s last update had us approximately $1mil over the luxury tax.

[Tiger337]

12 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Unless we get rid of salary also, we can’t trade Anderson for an established reliever.  Not sure where we’re at now, but Edman’s last update had us approximately $1mil over the luxury tax.

AI says if they go over the limit by less than 20 million, they would face a financial penalty, but not loss of draft picks. Is this true?  If so, that is a significant distinction from what happens if they exceed by more than 20 million. 

[4hzglory]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

AI says if they go over the limit by less than 20 million, they would face a financial penalty, but not loss of draft picks. Is this true?  If so, that is a significant distinction from what happens if they exceed by more than 20 million. 

I’m not sure, but I am sure the draft pick compensation for SkubalMize would drop from a 1st to a 4th.  
 

Not sure about losing the competitive balance pick also which would be after the 1st next year.  

[SoCalTiger]

5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Is Anderson's glove playable in the majors? I seem to recall that was an issue for him.

I have no idea but you could be right in which case his trade value is probably nil.

[SoCalTiger]

5 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

Unless we get rid of salary also, we can’t trade Anderson for an established reliever.  Not sure where we’re at now, but Edman’s last update had us approximately $1mil over the luxury tax.

I did not remember that so I guess this is our team.