casimir

I think Ivey plays less out of control recently than he has in the past. I think he allowed his speed to get him into bad position too often before, maybe try and get to area or take a shot when it wasn’t there, forcing the issue. I don’t he does that as often, I think he’s been more judicious about using that speed, whether in quick bursts, or down the court. Cunningham has improved his 3FG% this season. He’s still a bit below league average, but it is improving. So, if he plays off of the ball a bit more, perhaps he can help space the floor as well and open up the lane for Duren in the post or the ball handler to drive.

Hopefully someone packs his belongings for him. If he has to do it, he'll probably miss the box.

I like that PECOTA plays the sim through the schedule and goes with those results. You can see that the run differential isn't necessarily correlated to winning percentage. On the other hand, FanGraphs seems to take the run differential and apply the win loss record based on that. I didn't calculate any team just to check, but it looks like the forecasted record might be pythagorean. The noticeable result is that FanGraphs seems to have a tighter range of win loss records. All teams are within 64 and 97 wins. PECOTA has a couple of teams above 100 wins and a couple of teams below 60 wins. Its just kind of fun to look at. We can poke holes at the results and how they were arrived at. Playing time is a good variable to criticize. There are still a few free agents to be factored in, teams have spring training to get through, there will be injuries, trades, disappointments, surprises, etc, before teams break camp. And even then, these forecasting systems can have better inputs to use, but there will be more injuries, trades, disappointments, surprises, etc, throughout the season to skew the actuals from the projections.

Can't argue with the results. They suck. Can't argue that.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings But they like the Tigers better than PECOTA, so I guess there's that.

Knox has had a fortunate season. Picked up off of the scrap heap by the Pistons after the season started and now traded into playoff contention. Unemployed to historical losing streak to playin/playoffs.

Why didn’t you bring this to someone’s attention last season?

The Kool Aid was Honolulu blue.

If you had Nick Maton to the Orioles for cash, take a bow. You didn’t, but go ahead and claim it anyway, nobody cares.

Looks like it was game 2 of a doubleheader. He was a .243/.275/.299 hitter that season. Take away the 7 hits (6 singles and 1 double) and he's still a lousy hitter.

One of the critiques that I'd heard about PECOTA is that it does tend to have a tighter forecast on players with MLB history as opposed to less complete MLB resumes. Sure, OK, that seems to make sense in general terms. The middle infield is projected to be Baez and Keith. There's more confidence in predicting Baez' end of season stats as opposed to Keith. Heck, we assume Keith will make the big club, but we don't know that for certain. As far as Harris and the offseason, I agree, it was a thin free agent market to make gains with. So, the Tigers might be more reliant on internal/incumbent improvement to make gains than is reasonable if the division crown is the goal.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ 75.6-86.4? 3rd place in the division? Is Keith Law working for Baseball Prospectus?

Fryman? Probably wrong, but I'm on a hot streak using Fryman as an answer today.

The real test will be if Malloy is at 100. Will Law publish a top 99 list then?

I give this response a ten.

That's interesting. He's played all of 2 professional innings as a 2B, in the 2020-2021 Dominican Winter League.

I saw something recently about being a bit more scattery on throws rather than sharp shootery. I don't recall where, and honestly it was the first time I've heard/seen of that kind of comment about him, so I don't know how much stock to put into it. Arm aside, if he could handle 3B, there wouldn't be any debate about it heading into camp.

Fryman was one of my wife's favorite Indi.... Clevelands.

Holy heck, he took EVERY defensive pitch at 3B!

He'd spent almost 2,000 minor league innings in OF and 79 at 3B. In 2022 with the Phillies, it was 756 & 42. It would have been something that needed to start in spring training.

It had to have been Fryman, right?

Preach. Stop worrying about uglifying the next batch of spring training hats and get to work on recalibrating the baseball to where home runs and pitching injuries are reduced.