Another problem with polling and punditry on abortion is that it tends to get framed as a binary. Pro Chioce vs Pro Life. I suspect many that lean towards the latter side are hugely put off by the lack of exceptions for women’s health, rape, incest, or even by time limits so short as to be virtually absolute bans. So many people, especially women, understand that it’s not so clearcut in the real world and that the hardliners are too zealous and vindictive. Take enough of those folks into account and you get a vote in Ohio (or Kansas or Colorado).