Jason_R

…In 2024 after Aa-Rod retires.

Goff is not the fourth worst QB in the NFL. He looked ugly at the start of the season under a bad offense with no weapons. At the end of the season he was 17th in passer rating and 25th in QBR. Not great, but not fourth worst. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm Using the eyeball test, it looks like there were six tiers of QBs by QBR in 2021. Goff fits in tier 5, with people like Jones, Heinecke, Roethlisberger, Mills, Mayfield, Dalton, Lawrence, and Darnold. Tier 6 includes Wilson and Fields. I predict Goff's 2022 season will rank somewhere in the fourth tier, above the Teddy Bridgewater line. If so, I also think he will play for the Lions in 2023, as Holmes may decide to get his shutdown CB in the first round, rather than a QB. If this is the case, it wouldn't even surprise me if they sign Goff to an extension! In 2023 their defense should begin to solidify and barring injury they should compete for a playoff spot. 2024 is the earliest year the Lions could seriously compete and that is the last year of Goff's contract. Holmes has been in two front offices that traded to get this guy. They like him better than we do.

I’m not sure Goff even needs to take a step forward. He started six games after Campbell took over playcalling. The team averaged 22.7 points during that stretch. Over a whole season that would have been good enough for 18th, just ahead of the Raiders, just behind the Ravens. In the eight games he started with Lynn calling plays they averaged 16.75 points. That would have been good for 29th, just ahead of HOU, NYG, JAX. Presumably the return of Ragnow, the additions of Chark and eventually Jaymo, and a full offseason with a new OC will help the offense improve even if Goff does not. It is not out of the question that, even with no improvement from Goff, the Lions could move from the 25th ranked scoring offense to the 15th. Still not great but respectable, even if Goff doesn’t improve appreciably from how he finished last season.

Missing on a QB switch is an easy way to create controversy in a front office. Missing on a massive trade is another way. Doing them both at the same time won't go unnoticed. But I don't see how they trade Jimmy G at this point. They turned down the offer of a 2nd round pick already. And what team is going to give up a 1st for a QB who will have to come in and learn a new system without being able to throw until July? The 49ers are walking a tightrope. They need Jimmy G but they can't admit it because that would be admitting failure on Lance. Also the team responds to him and performed well with him. What do your players think if you dump a QB who has won games for a kid who hasn't proven himself in practice, just so the GM and Coach can validate their bad decision?

Our old MTS poster Michael Schottey has a really good piece with interviews from executives about the draft. https://www.the33rdteam.com/former-nfl-decision-makers-on-the-final-hours-before-the-nfl-draft/ Key items: Tom Lewand reports that the Lions kicked JaMarcus Russell out of their building on his pre-draft visit for being disinterested and disrespectful. In retrospect, not a surprise. Then Millen picked up the phone and dialed Al Davis to tell him not to pick Russell #1 because he would ruin the franchise. Lewand was stunned and afraid the Raiders would then pick Calvin. Oh Matt Millen….

I agree. And I suspect the apparent miss on Lance was related to Malik Willis’s slide this year.

No it is not a good sign if Lance isn’t ready to go. But if Lynch and Shanahan kick Jimmy G to the curb knowing Lance is not ready, they would be putting themselves on the hot seat.

I would still be surprised if SF deals Jimmy G. They were a dropped interception away from going to the Super Bowl with him, and there is too much smoke about Lance not being ready. I could see them bringing in Lance like Taysom Hill to give the offense a bit more juice and see if he can win trust and the job during the season. I do agree that the Jets will likely be better than advertised.

How did the 49ers get rated below the Lions? Also a little puzzled by the Bengals.

The Panthers seem like a team destined to crater.

If they double last year, that’s six wins. And two ties. 6-9-2 seems like a Lionesque record. That’s my bet.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-draft-class-rankings-chiefs-jets-ravens-shine-brightest Oh Martin, you and your 30th ranked draft haul. His two top picks were stunned they were picked so high. Meanwhile, our top two picks were both surprised they were not picked higher. I'll say it again. Brad Holmes is already the best Lions GM of the Super Bowl era.

There are also a lot of dumb guys! We have had a steady stream of them. Now it appears that maybe we don’t. Maybe some of Holmes’s picks won’t pan out, but he clearly has an understanding of positional value, a commitment to football character, and an aggressive streak. He might already be the best Lions GM ever!

I came to say what MB said. Lots of mocks had the Lions taking Dean at 32 or 34. Mayhew might have done it! I’m glad Holmes did not, and got a cheap substitute late. Also, I’m not sure he’ll have to bulk up. He’ll probably come in mostly on passing downs.

It's almost like Brad Holmes is good at his job! Could it be that for the first time in franchise history we have a capable GM?

It is easy for an offense to get off to a slow start if they have a weak OL, weak RBs, but insist they need to establish the run. And it’s easy to for a team to fall behind and need heroic comebacks if they have a lousy defense. I’m sure Stat Padford would like to have started padding his stats in the first quarter.

This is why you build a solid team before going all in for a QB. Also, I have a hard time believing that the Lions will pick second again. Say what you will about Walter Football, but I think he’s closer to what will occur in putting Detroit 5 behind Houston, Atlanta, Chicago, and Jacksonville. Also, Carolina’s QB situation is a disaster. The Giants are a coin toss with Daniel Jones and a new staff. Who is going to throw passes for Seattle? Washington is a three-headed monster but Ron Rivera will keep them from total meltdown. I could see one or more of these teams dropping below Detroit, who I figure will pick in the 5-8 range.

Did you ever rank your preference for quarters by most productive to least productive, and tell Stafford? How else would he have known what his second most productive quarter should have been?

Yeah, there isn’t a lot of traditional 4-3 or 3-4 being played. A lot of teams have fewer linebackers playing fewer downs. I’m OK that they waited to pick up their LB and picked up a versatile DL in Paschal instead.

Or maybe they had a limited number of picks and a finite bucket of players to choose from.

Yeah he was Jekyll and Hyde last year. I couldn’t watch the end of some of those early games where he kept coughing it up. This year he will have far better weapons, better coaching, and hopefully more health on the OL. I’m assuming he will look respectable. I’m also assuming Okudah’s ceiling is now as a rotational player not as a shutdown corner. I think next season Holmes will want his Jalen Ramsey. If Goff looks respectable, they can build the defense for another year before they have to make a decision about whether to extend him. And with QB salary inflation as it has been, Goff’s salary won’t look quite so bad.

How about if next season he matches his career average passer rating of 91.5? Which, BTW, is good for 20th all time, just ahead of Matt Stafford. I’m not on his bandwagon or off his bandwagon. I just know QB is the hardest position to play in all of pro sports. And even a sure fire, can’t miss, generational prospect like Trevor Lawrence, not to mention most of the QBs who won the Heisman Trophy over the past decade, have disappointed as pros. The Lions are still very thin on the defensive back end. I would like to see them shore that up in next years draft before chasing a QB. Caveat: In Brad I trust.

Yes, and is there any level of performance by Goff above which the haters would concede he should not be discarded for a lottery ticket?

Lamar’s already had his best season. The league has figured him out. Pass. Murray is very talented but fragile. Absolutely fell apart down the stretch and in the playoffs. Physically he is a major upgrade from Goff, but his mental game may make it close to a wash. We have one more throwaway year with Goff to see if he can make this new offense go. I think he will have a good season.

Feels like a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Lions to end up picking fourth. The offense should be better. But the defense still has a lot of question marks on the back end. I figure they’ll end up picking around 8 next year then turn the corner in 2023.