bobrob2004

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #7 – Akil Neomon Baddoo Akil Baddoo is probably the most exciting Rule 5 player the Tigers have selected in my lifetime, especially early in the season. By the end of April, Baddoo was leading the team in home runs (4) and OPS (.814). However, his second half wasn’t as impressive as his first half: First Half: 239 PA | .271/.352/.462 | 6 HR | 13 SB Second Half: 222 PA | .246/.306/.409 | 7 HR | 5 SB Yabba Da Baddoo’s BABIP in the first half was .367 and .303 in the second half. Therefore, I’m leading towards the second half the season being more Baddoo’s true talent than the first half. What I find most strange was the amount of stolen bases was cut more than half in the second half. From July 17 – September 28, Baddoo only stole one base in 48 games. Then he stole 4 bases in the last 5 games of the season. Just strange. The most interesting stat for me is the power numbers. Baddo had a .176 ISO in the minor leagues in 2018 and was able to sustain that in the Majors with a .177 ISO in 2021. He only played 29 games in 2019 and missed all of 2020 due to Tommy John surgery, then skipped two levels of the minor leagues and still kept his power numbers. That’s just amazing. Entering his age 23 season, he hasn’t even reached his prime years yet, so he could still increase his power numbers and potentially be a 20/20 or 25/25 guy. For 2022, I could see it going one of two ways. I could see him building up his numbers and have overall better stats, or I could see a sophomore slump. In a lot of ways he reminds me of Austin Jackson, who was an exciting player for his first few seasons and then fizzled out. Hopefully Baddoo has a better career. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 541 AB | .242/.320/.409 | 17 HR | 63 RBI | 20 SB | 60 BB | 150 K ZiPS – 443 AB | .264/.335/.451 | 15 HR | 60 RBI | 20 SB | 49 BB | 124 K THE BAT – 491 AB | .234/.317/.409 | 17 HR | 56 RBI | 17 SB | 58 BB | 149 K ATC – 496 AB | .245/.321/.427 | 18 HR | 61 RBI | 20 SB | 54 BB | 144 K FGDC – 547 AB | .253/.328/.430 | 18 HR | 69 RBI | 23 SB | 60 BB | 152 K RotoChamp – 509 AB | .250/.333/.428 | 17 HR | 63 RBI | 20 SB | 57 BB | 147 K CBS Sports – 503 AB | .264/.331/.455 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 19 SB | 50 BB | 143 K ESPN – 501 AB | .234/.305/.417 | 18 HR | 59 RBI | 22 SB | 53 BB | 147 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 413 AB | .259/.330/.436 | 13 HR | 55 RBI | 18 SB | 45 BB | 122 K 2022 Prediction – 471 AB | .240/.309/.406 | 14 HR | 52 RBI | 24 SB | 48 BB | 147 K

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #6 –Casey Arthur Mize Casey Mize had a very decent first full season with a 3.71 ERA, 7 wins, and a 1.3 fWAR. However, he only averaged 5 innings/start and they limited his innings in the last month as he was adjusting to the longer Major League season. His ERA was 4.58 in his last 10 starts. Looking deeper into No-Nickname's numbers, it’s safe to assume that he was a bit lucky with his ERA. His strikeout rate was only 19.3 percent, and his HR/FB ratio was 16.2 percent (13th lowest and 6th highest, respectively amongst pitchers with at least 150 innings). This led to a 4.71 FIP. He is going to have to work on getting more strikeouts and limiting the home run ball if he wants to get better in 2022. One encouraging stat is his ground ball rate at 48.1 percent (Mize throws both a split finger fastball and a sinker). With the addition of Javier Baez, the infield defense should be improved and limit the amount of base hits from ground balls, even though this was already low at .212. In fact, his overall BABIP of .254 is probably not going to be sustainable and will likely be closer to league average in 2022 (the league average was .290 in 2021). Unless Mize makes some major adjustments, I don’t think he will be as lucky as he was in 2021. He was already struggling down the stretch while only going through the lineup one time per start and the league now has a scouting report on him. It will be interesting to see how he intends on making these adjustments. There’s surprisingly very little news on what Mize intends on working on during Spring Training, such as working on a better sinker. Opponents batted .322 in 152 AB against this pitch in 2021. Or maybe even eliminating that pitch altogether. We just have to wait and see what happens. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 171 IP | 9-12 W/L | 4.57 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 141 K | 53 BB ZiPS – 148 IP | 8-8 W/L | 4.20 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 121 K | 44 BB THE BAT – 157 IP | 9-13 W/L | 4.68 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 125 K | 53 BB ATC – 157 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.33 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 125 K | 47 BB FGDC – 161 IP | 9-10 W/L | 4.39 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 133 K | 49 BB RotoChamp – 156 IP | 8-11 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 126 K | 48 BB CBS Sports – 154 IP | 7-8 W/L | 3.51 ERA | 1.11 WHP | 114 K | 42 BB ESPN – 161 IP | 8 Wins | 4.19 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 135 K | 49 BB My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 150 1/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 3.71 ERA | 1.137 WHIP | 118 K | 41 BB 2022 Prediction – 157 1/3 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.36 ERA | 1.185 WHIP | 131 K | 41 BB

Ah, head-to-head record makes more sense. I wish they would explain it more clearly instead of assuming everyone follows along with other sports.

I don't pay attention to NFL. What is an "NFL like tie-breaker system"? Is it like, whoever scored more runs during the season automatically wins?

I knew it would take less than 100 days.

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #5 – Jose Miguel Cabrera Torres Miguel Cabrera became the 28th player to hit 500 home runs last year and is only 13 hits shy of 3000. Only 6 players have hit 500 home runs and 3000 hits – Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Rafael Palmeiro, Alex Rodriguez, and Albert Pujols. Miggy is entering his age 39 season and is no longer the hitter that he used to be. 2016 was the last year that he was an all-star, and in the five years since he has hit .264/.335/.401, 97 wRC+, and a -0.1 fWAR. In 2021, he had a 7.6 percent walk rate and a 22.4 percent strikeout rate, the worst percentages since his rookie year. For the fifth consecutive year, his ISO was below .200 at .129, the lowest since 2019 when it was .116. For the third time in the last five years, his wRC+ was below average at 92. Cabrera did have a very slow start in 2021. For the first two months of the year, he hit .184/.263/.279 in 152 plate appearances. Since June 1st, he hit .286/.337/.429 in 374 plate appearances. Cabrera spent some time on the 10-day injury list in April, which could have contributed to his struggles. Cabrera has always dealt with nagging injuries in his career but was always able to play through them and still be better than 90 percent of the league. Now that he’s past his prime, that’s no longer the case. It’s reasonable to believe that he will continue to deal with injuries (mostly biceps) in 2022 and therefore his numbers will suffer during that time. Finally, I think it’s worth mentioning that Cabrera’s ground ball rate was 48.2 percent, the highest it’s ever been (not counting his injury-shortened 2018 year). This explains his decrease in power numbers. This may continue in 2022, or it may just be a fluke. Hey, milestones are fun, right? In addition to getting 3000 hits, Miggy has a good chance of passing 5 people in home runs, 9 people in RBI, and 0 people in stolen bases. His next walk will be his 1200th of his career and he could pass Cal Ripken, Jr. for2nd all time in most grounded into double plays (350), only behind Albert Pujols (413). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 474 AB | .256/.323/.407 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 1 SB | 44 BB | 121 K ZiPS – 428 AB | .248/.304/.374 | 14 HR | 63 RBI | 0 SB | 34 BB | 106 K THE BAT – 419 AB | .248/.310/.383 | 12 HR | 51 RBI | 0 SB | 36 BB | 100 K ATC – 417 AB | .252/.315/.391 | 13 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 37 BB | 103 K FGDC – 474 AB | .252/.314/.391 | 16 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 41 BB | 119 K RotoChamp – 423 AB | .255/.316/.397 | 14 HR | 59 RBI | 0 SB | 37 BB | 104 K CBS Sports – 439 AB | .255/.318/.403 | 16 HR | 72 RBI | 1 SB | 38 BB | 113 K ESPN – 493 AB | .243/.307/.381 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 44 BB | 125 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – 467 AB | .268/.338/.394 | 14 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 49 BB | 112 K 2021 Actual – 472 AB | .256/.316/.386 | 15 HR | 75 RBI | 0 SB | 40 BB | 118 K 2022 Prediction – 475 AB | .248/.307/.368 | 12 HR | 59 RBI | 0 SB | 38 BB | 126 K

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #4 –Robert Edward Grossman In many ways, Robbie Grossman had the best year of his career in 2020, with a 127 wRC+, .241 ISO, and 4.2 percent of his plate appearances resulting in a home run – all career highs. In 2021, he took a step back in each of these categories (114 wRC+, .176 ISO, and 3.4 percent home run rate). However, he did this in 671 plate appearances (a career high) as opposed to the COVID shortened season of 192 plate appearances. This resulted in a 2.7 fWAR in 2021, a career best. There is evidence that RG changed his approach in 2021. For the first time in his career, he had more fly balls than ground balls (a 0.64 GB/FB ratio). His fly ball rate was at 46.2 percent. This explains his sudden increase in home runs. Grossman was also much more aggressive on the basepaths, stealing double digits (20) for the first time in his career (although he would have stolen 28 bases at the same rate in 2020 given the same amount of playing time in 2021). This is a huge increase from 0 stolen bases in 465 plate appearances in 2018 and 9 stolen bases in 482 plate appearances in 2019. As far as walks (14.6 percent) and strikeouts (23.1 percent), they seem to be consistent with his career averages (13 percent walk rate, 21.3 percent strikeout rate). I would expect this to be about the same in 2022. Grossman also had a career high in RBI, 67. This is most likely due to 37 percent of his time batting third in the order, which is probably not going to happen in 2022. Robbie Grossman is entering his age 32 season, which is a tricky age to predict. This is the age where some players start to decline, while other players can keep their peak numbers for a couple of years longer. Given his adjustments, and park factors, I am optimistic that he can keep up his 2021 numbers for at least one more year. But at the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to decline. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 524 AB | .239/.346/.396 | 17 HR | 62 RBI | 15 SB | 81 BB | 134 K ZiPS – 485 AB | .243/.349/.408 | 17 HR | 56 RBI | 14 SB | 75 BB | 127 K THE BAT – 487 AB | .243/.350/.404 | 17 HR | 58 RBI | 14 SB | 76 BB | 123 K ATC – 489 AB | .241/.347/.401 | 17 HR | 57 RBI | 16 SB | 75 BB | 123 K FGDC – 510 AB | .241/.348/.402 | 17 HR | 60 RBI | 15 SB | 79 BB | 132 K RotoChamp – 510 AB | .241/.348/.406 | 18 HR | 60 RBI | 16 SB | 79 BB | 131 K CBS Sports – 424 AB | .250/.354/.441 | 18 HR | 52 RBI | 15 SB | 62 BB | 115 K ESPN – 492 AB | .240/.349/.400 | 17 HR | 54 RBI | 18 SB | 79 BB | 124 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – 474 AB | .247/.342/.439 | 17 HR | 56 RBI | 15 SB | 66 BB | 110 K 2021 Actual – 557 AB | .239/.357/.415 | 23 HR | 67 RBI | 20 SB | 98 BB | 155 K 2022 Prediction – 548 AB | .243/.357/.416 | 20 HR | 58 RBI | 20 SB | 92 BB | 141 K

So it would be similar to lowering the mound in 1969?

Fair point. A pitcher's strategy could change after 2 strikes, the bunt is eliminated, going for a strikeout instead of a groundball, etc. It would be interested if any studies show how much time could be saved with no shifts. Also, how would it be enforced? Would it be a strict area where the players can't roam out of or more of a suggestion like the coaching boxes? What would be the penalty if a player goes out of their zone?

I'm confused about what eliminating the shift will do. Are you trying to increase the offense? Do you think pitchers have too much of an advantage? I don't see how not shifting will speed up the game, unless you believe it takes too long for players to get in position between batters.

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #3 – Eduardo Jose Rodriguez Hernandez In 2019, Eduardo Rodriguez had the best year of his career with a 3.81 ERA, 18 wins and 213 strikeouts. He was one of 15 players to pitch over 200 innings and he finished sixth in the Cy Young voting. At age 26 it seems like he would continue to get better. Unfortunately, he missed all of the 2020 season due to having tested positive for COVID and being diagnosed with myocarditis. Then, he had a less than stellar 4.74 ERA in 2021 while only pitching 157 2/3 innings and averaging only 5 innings per start (down from 6 innings/start in 2019). However, there are reasons to believe that El Gualo was more than a bit unlucky in 2021. And it all has to do with infield defense. They had a total of 67 infield errors last year including 24 at third base (26th rank) and 17 from first base (30th rank). Their range was equally as bad: First base: .671 RZR | 30th Second base: .676 RZR | 26th Shortstop: .734 RZR | 21st Third base: .683 RZR | 24th When someone has almost 45 percent of their batted balls as ground balls (43.2 percent according to Fangraphs), then having poor infield defense behind you will result in inflated numbers, such as a 4.74 ERA, .363 BABIP, and 68.9 percent left-on-base (career totals are .311 BABIP and 74 percent left-on-base). Looking deeper in the numbers, E-Rod had the highest strikeout rate (27.4 percent) and lowest walk rate (7 percent) in his career in 2021. This gave him a career-best 3.32 FIP. After adding Javy Baez, the Tigers infield defense has greatly improved. It remains to be seen whether Schoop will play first base or go back to his natural position at second base. Hopefully for Baez, it’s back at second base. If Candelario and Torkelson (or whoever they plug in at 1B) can give just average defense, Rodriguez should even out his ERA. Eduardo is entering his age 29 season, and as long as he continues to do exactly as he did in 2021 with the strikeouts and walks, his luck should turn around and anchor this rotation with a veteran presence. A change in scenery could also give him a boost of confidence. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 185 IP | 11-11 W/L | 3.83 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 192 K | 61 BB ZiPS – 160 2/3 IP | 12-9 W/L | 3.47 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 172 K | 49 BB THE BAT – 180 IP | 12-12 W/L | 3.87 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 181 K | 61 BB ATC – 180 IP | 12-10 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 189 K | 59 BB FGDC – 183 IP | 12-11 W/L | 3.66 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 193 K | 58 BB RotoChamp – 174 IP | 12-10 W/L | 3.67 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 184 K | 57 BB CBS Sports – 154 IP | 9-10 W/L | 4.32 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 133 K | 47 BB ESPN – 169 IP | 9 Wins | 3.94 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 194 K | 56 BB My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 157 2/3 IP | 13-8 W/L | 4.74 ERA | 1.389 WHIP | 185 K | 47 BB 2022 Prediction – 202 IP | 14-9 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.277 WHIP | 221 K | 68 BB

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #2 – Jeimer No-name Candelario Jeimer Candelario had the best season of his career in the shorten 2020 season with a 138 wRC+. The question remained if he was able to carry that through a full season. And the answer was…mostly. He had a 119 wRC+ in 2021, a step back from 2020, but his 3.2 fWAR is his best yet. Candelario deservingly won back-to-back Tigers Player of the Year in 2020-21. Candelario’s BABIP evened out (.372 to .333) but his walk rate (9.7 percent to 10.4 percent) and strikeout rate (23.8 percent to 21.6 percent) both improved. His power numbers fell a bit (.205 to .172 ISO) and his 16 home runs was below his career high of 19 in 2018. However, he was tied with the league lead in doubles with 42 along with Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, and Whit Marrifield. Pretty good company. Baby Ruth’s (is that really his nickname?) main issue is his consistency. Look at these splits: March/April: 109 PA | .260/.321/.340 May: 109 PA | .313/.395/.490 June: 82 PA | .194/.293/.236 July: 110 PA | .309/.409/.532 August: 108 PA | .267/.315/.475 September/October: 108 PA | .266/.361/.543 Jeimer missed some games in June when he was placed on bereavement list, which may have impacted his performance. But he did have two months of over .500 slugging, which would put him in elite status. In fact, he was able to keep this up for the full second half of the year: First half: 344 PA | .262/.346/.377 Second half: 282 PA | .282/.358/.524 Just like his 2020 season didn’t carry over into 2021, it’s unlikely that his second half will be able to carry over for a full season. But at age 28, he is right in his prime and there is a lot to be optimistic about. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 548 AB | .253/.339/.429 | 19 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 67 BB | 138 K ZiPS – 560 AB | .253/.334/.430 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 142 K THE BAT – 534 AB | .251/.335/.423 | 18 HR | 68 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 132 K ATC – 537 AB | .257/.342/.442 | 20 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 64 BB | 135 K FGDC – 555 AB | .253/.337/.430 | 19 HR | 71 RBI | 1 SB | 65 BB | 140 K RotoChamp – 544 AB | .257/.340/.439 | 19 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 64 BB | 137 K CBS Sports – 553 AB | .280/.358/.456 | 17 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 138 K ESPN – 541 AB | .259/.342/.444 | 19 HR | 63 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 140 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – 479 AB | .244/.328/.424 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 3 SB | 56 BB |134 K 2021 Actual – 557 AB | .271/.351/.443 | 16 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K 2022 Prediction – 534 AB | .275/.359/.463 | 18 HR | 76 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 124 K

388 AB | .265/.306/.466 | 17 HR | 60 RBI | 11 SB | 19 BB | 133 K

In the last paragraph I did. I should also mention that Baez is a huge upgrade from the last few shortstop players the Tigers had. Given that it's a premium position having a hitter like Baez, even with his lack of walks, is a high value.

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #1 – Ednel Javier Baez For the first time since 2020, there might not be a full season of baseball this year. However, these predictions are going to be based on a 162-game season. Javier Baez (6-year, $140 million) is the Tigers biggest free agent signing since Justin Upton’s 6-year, $132.75 million contract before the 2016 season. However, after 5 years of losing seasons and 4 top-5 draft picks, Al Avila must feel like the Tigers are ready to compete again. Hooray for tanking! Javy Baez’ strength is definitely his power. His last 3 years’ home run totals were 34, 29, and 31 (excluding 2020). His ISO has been .264, .250, and .229 the last three full years and his RBI total has been 85+ for the last 3 full seasons. He is a perfect fit for the middle of the order as Miggy’s numbers continue to decline. He has also stolen double digits 5 times including a career high 21 in 2018, giving him a rare combination of power and speed. El Mago’s defense has also been hyped up, even though his numbers show him to be average to slightly above average for shortstop in 2021 (-0.1 UZR/150; 98 OOZ). His shortstop defense numbers were much better in 2019 (9.5 UZR/150 and .804 RZR). Unfortunately, defense tends to peak early and I wouldn’t expect him to be much better than average on defense in 2022. I could see him moving to 2B before his contract ends. And now the bad news. Both his strikeout totals and walk totals have been way below average throughout his career. If he didn’t have the power and speed, this would be a major concern. His career walk rate is 4.8 percent and his career strikeout rate is 29.3 percent. In 2021, he was ninth worst in walks (5.1 percent) and third worst in strikeouts (33.6 percent). This gives him a poor on-base percentage (.319 in 2021 and .307 career). Another concern is his numbers before getting traded to the Mets. Now, there’s a lot to factor here, including small sample size, park factors, and the potential of playing for a contending team (as well as some players just tend to perform better in the second half with warmer weather). However, it’s worth pointing out how his numbers dramatically improved after joining the Mets: CUBS: 335 AB | .248/.292/.484 | 4.2% BB | 36.3% K METS: 167 AB | .299/.371/.515 | 7.0% BB | 28.5% K It’s also worth pointing out that Baez is still in his prime, entering his age 29 season. He is also switching leagues, which usually means an adjusting period. Comerica is also a neutral park that suppresses home runs a little. I would expect a dip in home runs, but a spike in triples (especially given his speed). If we are getting Mets Javier Baez, the contract is a steal. However, that is quite doubtful. Overall, a very difficult prediction (not even factoring in number of games). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 557 AB | .245/.291/.447 | 26 HR | 83 RBI | 13 SB | 30 BB | 182 K ZiPS – 570 AB | .261/.304/.468 | 28 HR | 85 RBI | 18 SB | 28 BB | 175 K THE BAT – 547 AB | .262/.308/.489 | 30 HR | 84 RBI | 15 SB | 32 BB | 173 K ATC – 551 AB | .254/.297/.465 | 28 HR | 84 RBI | 16 SB | 28 BB | 177 K FGDC – 567 AB | .253/.297/.457 | 27 HR | 84 RBI | 16 SB | 29 BB | 180 K RotoChamp – 554 AB | .255/.302/.466 | 28 HR | 84 RBI | 29 BB | 179 K CBS Sports – 621 AB | .264/.302/.462 | 30 HR | 97 RBI | 27 BB | 218 K ESPN – 543 AB | .269/.312/.479 | 26 HR | 90 RBI | 19 SB | 26 BB | 172 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 502 AB | .265/.319/.494 | 31 HR | 87 RBI | 18 SB | 28 BB | 184 K 2022 Prediction – 524 AB | .265/.305/.471 | 24 HR | 81 RBI | 15 SB | 25 BB | 179 K

I'm surprised no on has posted this one yet.

I've only seen one game at Tiger Stadium. Luis Polonia hit a home run.

Is the lockout over yet? Someone ask Rob Manfred if Miggy can come out and play.

To appease the fans. "See I'm willing to spend money now. Correa is just too greedy."

Reminds me of Robert Fick, only right-handed bat. I can see him move out of catcher and play LF/1B for the rest of his career.

Tennessee is 100 years behind.

If your kids aren't interested in watching a ballgame, don't take them to a ballgame.

I should have phrased it in past tense. It's too late now.

I would build a parking lot at the site of old Tiger Stadium. I know that's a controversial topic, but there needs to be more parking.

I would build a retractable roof. This would not only fix the really cold, rainy/snowy days but also the extreme sunny days too. I would also eliminate the Ferris wheel and the merry-go-round. This is a baseball event, not a fair. It never made any sense to have these things.