bobrob2004

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #2 – Jeimer No-name Candelario Jeimer Candelario had the best season of his career in the shorten 2020 season with a 138 wRC+. The question remained if he was able to carry that through a full season. And the answer was…mostly. He had a 119 wRC+ in 2021, a step back from 2020, but his 3.2 fWAR is his best yet. Candelario deservingly won back-to-back Tigers Player of the Year in 2020-21. Candelario’s BABIP evened out (.372 to .333) but his walk rate (9.7 percent to 10.4 percent) and strikeout rate (23.8 percent to 21.6 percent) both improved. His power numbers fell a bit (.205 to .172 ISO) and his 16 home runs was below his career high of 19 in 2018. However, he was tied with the league lead in doubles with 42 along with Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, and Whit Marrifield. Pretty good company. Baby Ruth’s (is that really his nickname?) main issue is his consistency. Look at these splits: March/April: 109 PA | .260/.321/.340 May: 109 PA | .313/.395/.490 June: 82 PA | .194/.293/.236 July: 110 PA | .309/.409/.532 August: 108 PA | .267/.315/.475 September/October: 108 PA | .266/.361/.543 Jeimer missed some games in June when he was placed on bereavement list, which may have impacted his performance. But he did have two months of over .500 slugging, which would put him in elite status. In fact, he was able to keep this up for the full second half of the year: First half: 344 PA | .262/.346/.377 Second half: 282 PA | .282/.358/.524 Just like his 2020 season didn’t carry over into 2021, it’s unlikely that his second half will be able to carry over for a full season. But at age 28, he is right in his prime and there is a lot to be optimistic about. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 548 AB | .253/.339/.429 | 19 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 67 BB | 138 K ZiPS – 560 AB | .253/.334/.430 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 142 K THE BAT – 534 AB | .251/.335/.423 | 18 HR | 68 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 132 K ATC – 537 AB | .257/.342/.442 | 20 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 64 BB | 135 K FGDC – 555 AB | .253/.337/.430 | 19 HR | 71 RBI | 1 SB | 65 BB | 140 K RotoChamp – 544 AB | .257/.340/.439 | 19 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 64 BB | 137 K CBS Sports – 553 AB | .280/.358/.456 | 17 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 138 K ESPN – 541 AB | .259/.342/.444 | 19 HR | 63 RBI | 1 SB | 63 BB | 140 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – 479 AB | .244/.328/.424 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 3 SB | 56 BB |134 K 2021 Actual – 557 AB | .271/.351/.443 | 16 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K 2022 Prediction – 534 AB | .275/.359/.463 | 18 HR | 76 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 124 K

388 AB | .265/.306/.466 | 17 HR | 60 RBI | 11 SB | 19 BB | 133 K

In the last paragraph I did. I should also mention that Baez is a huge upgrade from the last few shortstop players the Tigers had. Given that it's a premium position having a hitter like Baez, even with his lack of walks, is a high value.

Bobrob’s 2022 Preseason Prediction #1 – Ednel Javier Baez For the first time since 2020, there might not be a full season of baseball this year. However, these predictions are going to be based on a 162-game season. Javier Baez (6-year, $140 million) is the Tigers biggest free agent signing since Justin Upton’s 6-year, $132.75 million contract before the 2016 season. However, after 5 years of losing seasons and 4 top-5 draft picks, Al Avila must feel like the Tigers are ready to compete again. Hooray for tanking! Javy Baez’ strength is definitely his power. His last 3 years’ home run totals were 34, 29, and 31 (excluding 2020). His ISO has been .264, .250, and .229 the last three full years and his RBI total has been 85+ for the last 3 full seasons. He is a perfect fit for the middle of the order as Miggy’s numbers continue to decline. He has also stolen double digits 5 times including a career high 21 in 2018, giving him a rare combination of power and speed. El Mago’s defense has also been hyped up, even though his numbers show him to be average to slightly above average for shortstop in 2021 (-0.1 UZR/150; 98 OOZ). His shortstop defense numbers were much better in 2019 (9.5 UZR/150 and .804 RZR). Unfortunately, defense tends to peak early and I wouldn’t expect him to be much better than average on defense in 2022. I could see him moving to 2B before his contract ends. And now the bad news. Both his strikeout totals and walk totals have been way below average throughout his career. If he didn’t have the power and speed, this would be a major concern. His career walk rate is 4.8 percent and his career strikeout rate is 29.3 percent. In 2021, he was ninth worst in walks (5.1 percent) and third worst in strikeouts (33.6 percent). This gives him a poor on-base percentage (.319 in 2021 and .307 career). Another concern is his numbers before getting traded to the Mets. Now, there’s a lot to factor here, including small sample size, park factors, and the potential of playing for a contending team (as well as some players just tend to perform better in the second half with warmer weather). However, it’s worth pointing out how his numbers dramatically improved after joining the Mets: CUBS: 335 AB | .248/.292/.484 | 4.2% BB | 36.3% K METS: 167 AB | .299/.371/.515 | 7.0% BB | 28.5% K It’s also worth pointing out that Baez is still in his prime, entering his age 29 season. He is also switching leagues, which usually means an adjusting period. Comerica is also a neutral park that suppresses home runs a little. I would expect a dip in home runs, but a spike in triples (especially given his speed). If we are getting Mets Javier Baez, the contract is a steal. However, that is quite doubtful. Overall, a very difficult prediction (not even factoring in number of games). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 557 AB | .245/.291/.447 | 26 HR | 83 RBI | 13 SB | 30 BB | 182 K ZiPS – 570 AB | .261/.304/.468 | 28 HR | 85 RBI | 18 SB | 28 BB | 175 K THE BAT – 547 AB | .262/.308/.489 | 30 HR | 84 RBI | 15 SB | 32 BB | 173 K ATC – 551 AB | .254/.297/.465 | 28 HR | 84 RBI | 16 SB | 28 BB | 177 K FGDC – 567 AB | .253/.297/.457 | 27 HR | 84 RBI | 16 SB | 29 BB | 180 K RotoChamp – 554 AB | .255/.302/.466 | 28 HR | 84 RBI | 29 BB | 179 K CBS Sports – 621 AB | .264/.302/.462 | 30 HR | 97 RBI | 27 BB | 218 K ESPN – 543 AB | .269/.312/.479 | 26 HR | 90 RBI | 19 SB | 26 BB | 172 K My Prediction: 2021 Prediction – N/A 2021 Actual – 502 AB | .265/.319/.494 | 31 HR | 87 RBI | 18 SB | 28 BB | 184 K 2022 Prediction – 524 AB | .265/.305/.471 | 24 HR | 81 RBI | 15 SB | 25 BB | 179 K

I'm surprised no on has posted this one yet.

I've only seen one game at Tiger Stadium. Luis Polonia hit a home run.

Is the lockout over yet? Someone ask Rob Manfred if Miggy can come out and play.

To appease the fans. "See I'm willing to spend money now. Correa is just too greedy."

Reminds me of Robert Fick, only right-handed bat. I can see him move out of catcher and play LF/1B for the rest of his career.

Tennessee is 100 years behind.

If your kids aren't interested in watching a ballgame, don't take them to a ballgame.

I should have phrased it in past tense. It's too late now.

I would build a parking lot at the site of old Tiger Stadium. I know that's a controversial topic, but there needs to be more parking.

I would build a retractable roof. This would not only fix the really cold, rainy/snowy days but also the extreme sunny days too. I would also eliminate the Ferris wheel and the merry-go-round. This is a baseball event, not a fair. It never made any sense to have these things.

*Arm Barn.

I was at this game and the home run wasn't too far away from where we were sitting. Not real close, but just a section or 2 away.

2006 is special to me because it's the first time I saw the Tigers... 1. Have a winning record 2. See the Tigers in the playoffs 3. See the Tigers in the World Series That was such a fun year after all my life of being a fan was just watching the Tigers being cellar dwellers.

On the 5th day of the lockout Rob Manfred gave to me...Rule 5 cancelled! 4 new playoff teams 3 years of early free agency 2 different balls And a bunch of greedy owners.

Probably, but it was trending downward before 2020.

In 2021, there were 4 pitchers who threw 200+ innings. In 2011, there were 39. I can't believe how much the workload of pitchers has fallen in the last 10 years.

Paredes has flexibility, being able to play both 2B and 3B. Hinch likes players who can play multiple positions. I think Paredes makes the team out of ST, even if Tork makes the team. Bench: Harald Castro Victor Reyes and/or Derek Hill Isaac Paredes Eric Haase I don't think Willi Castro makes the team. Do the Tigers take 3 catchers, including Haase? Is the roster size still 26? Will they take an extra position player or pitcher?

Rodriguez, Skubal Mize, Manning, Alexander That's our rotation

Greene and Torkelson Baez, Rodriguez, Barnhart Twenty Twenty-Two (am I doing this right?)

Baez has the most power, but best overall could be debatable (unless you think he can sustain what he did with the Mets for a full season, which I find doubtful). # Name Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA xwOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR 1 1 Jeimer Candelario DET 149 626 16 75 67 0 10.4% 21.6% .172 .333 .271 .351 .443 .344 .357 119 1.0 15.3 -4.7 3.2 2 Javier Baez - - - 138 547 31 80 87 18 5.1% 33.6% .229 .352 .265 .319 .494 .344 .324 116 3.0 14.1 4.2 3.6 3 Robbie Grossman DET 156 671 23 88 67 20 14.6% 23.1% .176 .286 .239 .357 .415 .337 .335 114 2.0 13.5 -9.5 2.7 Candelario had a better wRC+ last year and Grossman's wasn't far behind Baez (although Grossman did have a career year).

I would hesitate putting Greene/Torkelson in the top/middle of the lineup yet. Maybe later if they prove they can hit ML pitching. Then again, I would also hesitate putting them on the opening day roster unless they absolutely tear it up in Spring Training. Grossman Schoop Candelario Cabrera Baez Torkelson Greene Barnhart Baddoo Maybe it's just the pessimism in me thinking that the Tigers can have 2 all-star rookies right out of the gate. Also, is Greene really that good defensively to play CF? It would be awesome to watch Greene/Baddoo/Hill all in the outfield at the same time.