It's Krassenstein so probably BS. I really do wish there was a way to mute/block accounts in here I have muted/blocked on Twitter.
Remember again. Blue checkmarks these days means they are paid for impressions not truth.
That map got fixed since yesterday. I'm in the medium blue zip code that looks like a faucet filling a bucket. There's some wealthy pockets but also a college campus.
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/2024/10/24/unf-polls-finds-tighter-race-for-u-s-rep-aaron-bean-re-election-bid/75816073007/
Lends some credence to Florida maybe being in play...
Pooring cold water as I am wont to do, beware coming to overly positive conclusions here. The hitting environment at AFL is extreme before factoring in that teams are largely not sending their top pitchers.
It's also possible Harris is trying to pick off Texas or Florida on a hail mary in case there is systematic rust belt polling error in Trump's favor for the third time.
Silver had Obama >90 % in 2012. I can't find his precise model and the polling input, but I can guarantee this year and 2012 aren't similar from a polling standpoint.
That was indeed good. I listened this morning.
Which brings me to this tangential point. The NYTimes Audio paywall has not seemed to hit Pocketcasts yet.
I also caution against using Party ID for anything in a closed primary state where party identification can be bourn out of pragmatism more than anything. I change mine every primary season just so I can vote in the most competitive elections.
And then a **** load right wingers from blue states moved here in 2021-2022 to get away from COVID restrictions and Desantis increased his margin of victory from 0.4% in 2018 to 19% in 2022. And the standard caveats about using early voter party ID to extrapolate that you have routinely dismissed apply.
I'd be more inclined to subscribe to MLBTR if they calculated Baddoo and Lange's service time right 😄
Somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but attention to detail is important.
There were some people setting up some kinda Trump stand in the Publix parking lot this morning. I yelled at them at the top of my lungs "TRUMP IS A FASCIST."
It didn't accomplish anything, but it was cathartic.