mtutiger

Not firing up the pitchforks, but it's not exactly a new development that the farm system isn't where it needs to be and the last GM lost his job in part because of those failures. The question is where they go from here. I am cautiously optimistic based on what Harris has done to-date.

DeSantis could be seen as a boring version of Trump, but there may be aspects of his style/personality that also turn off the same sorts of voters that the GOP would need to win more share of in 2024. I think that's the thing that kinda gets ignored in this conversation.... another candidate like DeSantis may not share the same flaws as Trump, but may present different flaws of their own that impede their chances of winning the Presidency. And that's the conundrum.... in theory, the primary process is supposed to help yield the best candidate. But while there's a need in this case to coalesce around one challenger because a bifurcated field probably just leads to Trump being nominated, you are gambling that the chosen challenger (ie. DeSantis) is the best overall challenger in a general election scenario. And I would put it out there that we really don't know that he is, or that he can win in 2024 when exposed further to the national spotlight.

The other part of this discussion is, even if the field coalesced around one candidate (Ron DeSantis), is he actually a good national candidate and can he win in the places he needs to win in 2024? Obviously he did well in Florida during this past cycle, but some of that margin that he and Rubio attained is simply about anemic Democratic turnout compared with the rest of the country (doesn't account for all, but probably 5-10% of it from what I've read). And what plays in Florida, given it's unique mix of deep south, northern retirees and South American disapora that tends to be attracted to a more hard edged right wing message, does it have the same effect elsewhere? Tim Miller (also of the Bulwark) said on a one of their podcasts around Christmas that he had a hard time seeing Ronnie showing up in a place like Grand Rapids and having much success. I could be totally wrong, but having listened to the guy and seeing how he has postured himself for this upcoming run, I tend to agree.... and in order for a Republican to win in 2024, they need to do a lot better in places like that than Trump did in 2020 and how their congressional candidates did in 2022. "We need to coalesce around Ron DeSantis" is a strategy, but it isn't necessarily one that goes through the effort to find the best possible to candidate to both take on Trump and to win a general election.... it's basically a form of groupthink emanating from the need to avoid a split field.

It's not all that surprising to me.... why go for Rhonda Santis when you can get the pure uncut product straight from the source?

I didn't realize that Woodbery doubled as a Rockies beat writer.

The thing with the Republican primary is that the main alternative to Trump is basically all about co-opting his style. Heck, the way the two are differentiating themselves from one another currently is trying to out crazy each other COVID vaccinations lol. I'm sure some votes are up for grabs from some who like Trump, but I could see a lot of the hardcore folks questioning why they would go with the alternative candidate when they have the real deal available.

Do other team's beat writers obssess over "old friends" like Tigers ones do? I wish Harold nothing but the best, but he's not a Tiger anymore lol

Good for him. Still fine that he's gone though.

The Bulwark aren't exactly in love with Ron DeSantis, but nonetheless it does fit a pattern of polling whereby partisan R pollsters who have an interest in seeing Trump go down tend to show Ron DeSantis doing better than public polling does. The bigger concern off The Bulwark poll for DeSantis is what percentage of the Trumpy crowd is ride-or-die for Trump, they speculate as high as 28-30%.... sure, some of those people may come around in the end, but even something as small as 5% of Trump's base of support sitting at home as opposed to voting for DeSantis could really hurt his chances.

To be fair, there's a real disparity in some of the polling right now.... I've seen a couple of polls recently showing around a 52-30 spread in favor of Trump as well. I tend to think people are underestimating Trump's residual strength within the base of the party. I still think he's the favorite.

Again, not just AA urban poor, but rural as well. It's not an accident that the poorest parts of some of our poorest states (Mississippi and Arkansas, for example) are in the Mississippi Delta.

I thought it was interesting that the Braves, Astros and Blue Jays (all generally considered better systems than the lowly Tigers) all have less guys on Law's list. Once again proving the limited utility of Top 100 lists.

LOL, you are right.... completely wasn't thinking.

Almost would have rather seen Meadows Jr. get an invite lol

I think it's a fair point to discuss the fact that market forces have been cruel to rural communities in the north and that are more demographically white, including the one I grew up in. But as a counterpoint, one could take a look at rural, agricultural regions in the south, such as in Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana along the Delta or in the Black Belt of Alabama that are predominantly AA and who have always lagged behind, from an economic standpoint, rural ag communities in other parts of the United States, still lag behind them today and who are subjected to those same market forces. As an aside, as much as we characterize AAs as a primarily urban group, anyone who has spent time in the South knows that isn't entirely true.... it's more the case up north, but much less so down here.

Exactly my point. Geography matters, but it doesn't explain all of it. There are other factors at play.

The other thing I would say as this: the loudest voices that are being referenced in this thread aren't necessarily reflective of African Americans views on law enforcement either. Polling continually show that AAs are generally supportive and desire law enforcement in their communities. But to that end, one can desire and understand the need for law enforcement while acknowledging the issues that exist within the law enforcement community, which AAs do per polling as well. For some reason, instead of looking at this nuance, we have two extreme sides who either go to the mattresses defending or obfuscating arguments that maybe the law enforcement profession needs some self-reflection or go out and say things along the line (at least in the most extreme arguments anyway) of police are there to go out and systematically kill black people. Neither of these views is reflective of where the majority of AAs (or even Americans more generally) fall, but those are the contours that are used to discuss these issues. And that's a choice we all make.... we don't have to discuss along those lines or engage on those extremes.

Yes, police engage and kill people of all races. I'm pretty sure no one disputes that. But when it happens to one group of people 2.5 times more per capita than the group that comprises the majority of Americans, it's not exactly a huge shock that people are going to ask questions about what factors may cause that and you don't have to be someone on social media who engages in overheated rhetoric to acknowledge that disparity or wonder about what factors cause that. Or even that there may be systemic factors at play. Regarding the bolded, as mentioned in the part of my post that you didn't quote, at a disparity of 2.5 times, I'm not of the view that disparity can be entirely explained by geography. As someone who isn't black, I'm not going to pretend to understand the variety of factors that may cause someone who is black to run from the cops. Or simply chalk it all up to "people painting everything as racist" From the few interactions I've had in my life with people from that community on this subject, it seems to have a lot more to do with the learned experience over the generations of having interactions with law enforcement than simply being told what to do by social media influencers.

I don't have too much of an issue with our air fryer, but if someone has a >$100 dollar cut of meat and freezes and air frys it, that sounds like a war crime lol

Maybe? I think the bigger thing is that taking his managerial career along with comparing his front office experience to Dana Brown, it just makes it an incredibly easy decision (and one they ultimately made the right decision on)

Perhaps, but I've seen people mostly elide it (ie. True, but Bombers point still stands... and yes, I saw the last paragraph and still think it was being elided) and introducing red herrings/whataboutism points into the discussion to avoid having to directly deal with Lee's point (ie. I would be interested in your thoughts on why 95% of people shot and killed by police are men despite being 50% of the population.) Lee's point is important because it provides statistical context to the absolute numbers. At accounting for 2.5 times the rate of whites per capita in police deaths, that is a really dramatic difference, so much so that I don't think it can all be accounted for just in the difference in communities or policing. To be clear, I don't know all the reasons for the disparity in rates between whites and blacks in this metric, and they may not all be nefarious, I just think more context is needed than just pointing to the absolute numbers and saying that's the be all end all. To be clear, I don't know all the reasons for the disparity in rates between others and whites in this metric, and they may not all be nefarious, I just think more context is needed than just pointing to the absolute numbers and saying that's the be all end all.

Lee's point still stands in that the per capita numbers suggest that violence against blacks by police happens at a higher proportionality than it does with other groups. We can debate the reasons for that and whether the reasons are nefarious or less so, but just looking at absolute numbers misses a lot of context... Looking at absolute numbers alone is as accurate as saying that because Spencer Torkelson had more hits than Ozzie Albies in 2022, that means he was a better hitter. When factoring in proportionality of games played, among of ABs, etc., it's erroneous to say that.

Owning the libs by *checks notes* air frying Wagyu beef....