chasfh

What’s Tammy Baldwin’s birth status?

The Republicans look to be in a very precarious position right now. They’ve gone all in on Trump for almost seven years. Trump all by himself drove to the polls millions of people who wouldn’t normally vote. They voted because he was on the ticket; they’ll avoid voting if he’s not. Once he leaves, Republicans probably won’t be able to bank on those voters anymore. I’m not talking about very conservative voters who will simply shift to DeSantis—that’s going to happen. I’m talking about the red hat wackaloons who spend all day on the Stormfront website and spout Qonsense on Truth Social and dress up for militia “practice” and agitate for book burnings at the local grade school and all that. There are a few million of those, and they’ll likely leave the electorate altogether. They also had gone all in on the #1 all-time issue for the religious right, No Abortion, Nosirree. After the mass repudiation of this idea at the polls, how can Republicans effectively continue pushing the notion of complete abortion bans and still expect to win elections? Even Kentucky voted against the ability of their government to strip the right to abortion from its citizens. Kentucky, for cry eye! BUT, if they ignore the abortion issue altogether, or even fail to pay homage to the idea that they might implement nothing short of a complete ban, they may have to kiss millions of evangelical votes buh-bye, too. But also, if they continue to spout insane conspiracy ideas and push to strip people of the freedom to abortions, and even more freedoms beyond that, they will continue to lose the conservative middle who want nothing to do with any of that garbage. So at this moment, anyway, it looks like damned if they do and damned if they don’t. 😁

I can’t remember to what degree we have ever discussed this, and I also can’t remember when or whether I’ve ever across any articles contemplating this, but I do wonder how much a … ahem … tsunami of one-sided coverage of either party’s electoral chances affects partisan turnout and thus election results. In this case, I could hypothesize that the coverage on all sides of the media spectrum was so completely tilted toward the red wave idea that it may have caused many D voters to freak out and storm the polls to do whatever they could to try to stop it; as well as many R voters to believe the win was so completely in the bag that they figured their vote wasn’t even needed so they just stayed home and waited around to enjoy the results. I guess the proof in that pudding would be any data comparing D turnout with R turnout in battleground districts and states, but absent that, It seems really possible to me something like that happens.

In the eyes of a Foxified universe? Sure. To the rest of us? Definitely not. The trick lies in who’s got the power to exert their will over the other at a given time. We all want Trump to get indicted months, even years ago. When Merrick Garland does, he better have all his ducks lined up in a perfect little row, because he has exactly one shot to get it exactly right. Because you know what they say: you go after the king, you best not miss.

“These are the new front three of our rotation. These are Boyd, Fulmer, and Norris. To you, these are gold; you do not get these. Because to trade them to you would be throwing them away. Unless you give me Gleyber Torres, Alex Bergman, Javier Baez, Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Joe Mixon, Giannis Antepekepekepestanstan, and the #1 line of the Tampa Bay Lightning.”

Your post is basically the complement to my post from June.

Wonder whether they will consider this a CTJ moment and go all in on early and mail voting in 2024.

I kind of wonder whether some marginal voters peel off from Herschel out of some kind of embarrassment? Low-info voters who picked a football hero and then learned what a doofus he is? I can’t envision as many people leaving Warnock for Herschel.

This is the idea I was trying to get across in a post a couple days ago, poorly.

Aaaaand here we go ... Laugh if you want because it's Gateway Pundit, but all the ideas that are the mainstream thinking of Republican red hats had their start in flamethrowing blogs like this.

Sure, they could go the one- or even two-year route while we wait to see whether Colt Colt is a real thing. If the idea is to platoon Candelario with a LHH free agent pickup, I don't know that Adam Frazier is the guy since he is strictly a 2B who never strikes out, but also never hits the ball hard. He doesn't give us anything Schoop doesn't. Jace peterson could be interesting as a platoon piece. The Brewers seemed to turn him into a decent enough hitter who can take a walk, handle changeups, and hit line drives. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, either, but he hit it harder this year than Candelario did. He also has a plus-glove.

That was not the case in 2021, whihc was very recent, and that's across an entire season of 600+ PA. I'm not among those who think 2020-21 were a mirage and 2022 is his true level.

Kari Lake won't, for one. I doubt Boebert would. Who knows down the ballot in the various states like city councils and school boards and dog catcher. I agree this may be an inflection point for dilettante MAGAs who exist on the margins, but there are still tens of millions dyed-in-the-wool red hats who won't just roll their eyes, throw up their hands, and binge Ice Road Truckers to soothe their fee-fees. They still think their birthright to win elections have been undermined, and remember what happened the last time they thought this.

Now that the Republicans and their media have had the night to digest this all, I would guess that today's the day the avalanche of fraud claims is going to start rolling down the mountain, isn't it? Because what are their alternatives otherwise? The only two alternatives I can imagine at the moment are either publicly concede or go into seclusion.

I don't see why DeSantis wouldn't have the backbone. Of all the Republicans, it was his night, and Trump was roundly repudiated. DeSantis has the awful ideas red hats like without the personality liability, at least at the moment. October 2024 is a long way a way and a lot of events will transpire by then, and if there's one thing I feel certain of, it's that whatever people think when they think of DeSantis today will be substantially different 23 months from now.

There are appear to be no left-handed-hitting infielders on the free agent market who are young, can hit, and play 2B or 3B, primarily, so if this is truly a thing, it's probably going to have to happen in a trade. Also, since Jeimer is already a left-handed hitter, looks to me like the target might be more on Schoop's back.

Another thing to remember about Turnbull is that he was never a prospect, and has already turned 30. He could still come back strong but it'll be an uphill battle, especially since his K% was already trending down and his Savant card in general was already of sea of blue.

Lines are shorter at McDonel.

Fraud allegations will get louder and louder …

Counterpoint:

My wife and I are burning through DVR sitcoms tonight. I’m not watching results live. I’ll find out what’s happening by checking in here occasionally. I’ll flip on Colbert at 1035pm for late live results and snarky takes.

Dems have always collapsed with Florida Cubans.

So I just looked at this and realized something: Whitaker played in 19 seasons and clocked three wins or better in 15 of those seasons. Of the four he did not, one of them, 1977, was a cup of coffee season, and two others, 1994 and 1995, were—well, not just his age 37 and 38 seasons, his final two, but also truncated seasons due to the owner’s lockout. He definitely would have had more than three WAR in 1994. Nineteen-eighty was the only season he “had no excuse”. Just … dayum.

OK, well, let's just hope it's a free and fair election in this most permanently-gerrymandered of red states filled with blue people.