Investing

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

They were touting 147,000 jobs gained in June.  Turned out it was only 14,000.  Actually,  it wasn’t even that since the numbers will get adjusted a final time when they get their annual adjustment for the end of the year.    The reality is that we lost jobs in June instead of gaining near 150k. 

Dow was up 344 points and Nasdaq 1% on the day the cooked numbers were announced.  

The Don apparently is taking over labor statistics now, so I'm sure the cooking will get worse.

[Tigerbomb13]

ONE BILLION JOBS CREATED IN AUGUST!!!

[Tiger337]

In my experience providing numbers to the government (not employment numbers), the numbers are not "made up" in the sense that they pull a number out of thin air.  They are cooked in that they'll change definitions and cutoff dates to their benefit, but they don't just make up a number.  When I was doing that kind of work, I covered myself by doing it the right way and also the way they asked and writing a brief report with both numbers in it.  

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

The Don apparently is taking over labor statistics now, so I'm sure the cooking will get worse.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-he-plans-to-fire-bls-chief-after-poor-u-s-jobs-report-7dce121b?mod=home_ln

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-he-plans-to-fire-bls-chief-after-poor-u-s-jobs-report-7dce121b?mod=home_ln

I'd cut them a little slack - nobody counts all the people working one by one, it's all projected from survey data and Trump constantly roiling everything with the off agains/on again trade wars must throw all kinds of static at the survey models.

[Tiger337]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

I'd cut them a little slack - nobody counts all the people working one by one, it's all projected from survey data and Trump constantly roiling everything with the off agains/on again trade wars must throw all kinds of static at the survey models.

Oh, I'm sure it's a joy working for BLS right now!

[mtutiger]

There's, very correctly, a ton of concern coming out of this about Trump cooking and / or juking the numbers to make things look good for his political concerns (I'll leave those for the other thread), but the reality is that businesses need reliable data in order to make decisions that are in their strategic/fiduciary best interests. 

Trump, by doing this, is basically undermining the basis of the data going forward. Just adds yet another level of uncertainty to an environment that he's already injected a bunch of uncertainty into. 

Edited August 1 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

The whole idea is to destroy the credibility of the numbers—not just economic numbers but all the numbers the government has traditionally been responsible for—so that business will have to rely solely on the discretionary goodwill and largesse of the Trump government to succeed, instead of working as independent entities within a system as before. And they will have to pay the price of admission to obtain that goodwill and largesse, both in terms of money and willingness to comply.

[gehringer_2]

7 hours ago, Hongbit said:

They were touting 147,000 jobs gained in June.  Turned out it was only 14,000.  Actually,  it wasn’t even that since the numbers will get adjusted a final time when they get their annual adjustment for the end of the year.    The reality is that we lost jobs in June instead of gaining near 150k. 

Dow was up 344 points and Nasdaq 1% on the day the cooked numbers were announced.  

Of course the market doesn't really care about jobs - if anything they *like* seeing people get laid off if it increases corporate profits, so bad jobs numbers are necessarily going to pull down the market by themselves anyway. They don't even care if unemployment goes up as long as it's the poor getting laid off and so doesn't affect national purchasing power that much.

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Of course the market doesn't really care about jobs - if anything they *like* seeing people get laid off if it increases corporate profits, so bad jobs numbers are necessarily going to pull down the market by themselves anyway. They don't even care if unemployment goes up as long as it's the poor getting laid off and so doesn't affect national purchasing power that much.

And bigger picture, they want to kill off what remains of the working middle class and restore the Gilded Age’s impoverished unwashed masses, which gives the upper crust control of even more of the available money and makes them feel more exclusive.

[romad1]

Fascinating

GAO Warns Protesters of AI Sanctions | Burr & Forman - JDSupra

The industry of smoking out fake legal citations is just getting started.  

The term "protestor" is regarding those filing protests with the GAO over government contract decisions.   So, its not about some yarn-wearing grandmahippy in Ann Arbor protesting the local tesla dealership. 

Edited August 7 by romad1

[chasfh]

On 8/1/2025 at 8:25 PM, chasfh said:

The whole idea is to destroy the credibility of the numbers—not just economic numbers but all the numbers the government has traditionally been responsible for—so that business will have to rely solely on the discretionary goodwill and largesse of the Trump government to succeed, instead of working as independent entities within a system as before. And they will have to pay the price of admission to obtain that goodwill and largesse, both in terms of money and willingness to comply.

Further to this point ... 

 

[gehringer_2]

Nice juxtaposition today with Tesla's board sending $30B Elon's way at the same time he shuts down the company's "Dojo" AI supercomuter program. A couple of years ago Morgan Stanley had projected Dojo to be worth $500B to Tesla's value. They are going to be a bit on the high side there.

[romad1]

I have a question for Michigan peeps. 

Does Michigan have the power it needs in excess for this sort of development?   I know about Fermi and I know about the battery in Pentwater/Ludington... I'm considering doing a sell-back plan with solar and maybe wind (hearing that is much trickier) for when I move back in a couple years. 

[romad1]

@oblongand other VA bros, the North Beach Virginia Beach Holiday Inn is a sterling example of decay and shrinkflation.

[oblong]

ha ha.  THat's where we stayed 10 years ago.  Our last vacation where all of us stayed in one room.  I remember parking was crazy.  If the lot was full we had access to one like 2 blocks inland but I never felt right leaving it there. 

The drive in was.... horrible. 

[gehringer_2]

On 8/7/2025 at 10:27 AM, chasfh said:

Further to this point ... 

 

The thing that so rich about this is that lowering interest rates beyond where they should be will just pump up inflation, which is just about the most politically toxic thing an admin can have. So if anything, Powell is saving Trump from himself. If the Fed had started cutting when Trump asked, inflation would probably already be a percent higher.

[chasfh]

Looks like someone else at BLS is gonna get have to get their head rolled ... 

 

[CMRivdogs]

46 minutes ago, romad1 said:

@oblongand other VA bros, the North Beach Virginia Beach Holiday Inn is a sterling example of decay and shrinkflation.

Is that the one near the Caviler Hotel (Marriott)? The last time I stayed anywhere close to there was back in 1978 on my wedding night. It was a Holiday Inn but a bit farther north. $25 "bridal suite" but it was also the end of December

Have you been keeping up with the latest? Local officials are upset with tee shirt shops that advertise I Love Boobs t-shirts and Spank These shorts.  

[romad1]

56 minutes ago, oblong said:

ha ha.  THat's where we stayed 10 years ago.  Our last vacation where all of us stayed in one room.  I remember parking was crazy.  If the lot was full we had access to one like 2 blocks inland but I never felt right leaving it there. 

The drive in was.... horrible. 

We were there last in 2019.  To paraphrase “Oppenheimer” : Nostalgia will only get you so far.

The parking was worse than ever because of the mega trucks that are now the primary vacation vehicles.  

[romad1]

21 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Is that the one near the Caviler Hotel (Marriott)? The last time I stayed anywhere close to there was back in 1978 on my wedding night. It was a Holiday Inn but a bit farther north. $25 "bridal suite" but it was also the end of December

Have you been keeping up with the latest? Local officials are upset with tee shirt shops that advertise I Love Boobs t-shirts and Spank These shorts.  

It is up there by the Cavalier.  The Marriott up at that location had an awesome restaurant right on the water.  We had a very nice meal. 

[oblong]

thinking of that trip made me sad though because we realized there is a gap between using digital cameras, our phones, and then iphones.  I am not sure what happened to our android based photos between around 2012-2015.  ONce we both got iphones we have it all.  

I think one of us assumed a backup was taking place or did take place and.... who knows.

 

[romad1]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

thinking of that trip made me sad though because we realized there is a gap between using digital cameras, our phones, and then iphones.  I am not sure what happened to our android based photos between around 2012-2015.  ONce we both got iphones we have it all.  

I think one of us assumed a backup was taking place or did take place and.... who knows.

 

Another neg on the trip:  Skunkweed smell all over the boardwalk.  

I enjoyed the ocean immensely: we haven’t messed that up yet except the oil rigs off the coast were very visible.

[gehringer_2]

7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The thing that so rich about this is that lowering interest rates beyond where they should be will just pump up inflation, which is just about the most politically toxic thing an admin can have. So if anything, Powell is saving Trump from himself. If the Fed had started cutting when Trump asked, inflation would probably already be a percent higher.

and right on time, the PPI comes at 4.5 times the expectation. 0.9% month over month (10.8%/yr) as compared to 0.2% (2.4%/yr) expected. I guess another head will roll at BLS. And the beatings will continue until morale improves.

Edited Thursday at 08:12 PM by gehringer_2

[Screwball]