Investing

[Screwball]

13 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

The most important part of today’s report were the 2025 revisions.   

584,000 jobs gained were reported for the year.   The revisions today has it at 181,000.  403,00 jobs that were reported but never existed

That is a misstatement by 69%

What’s scarier is that sinceI don’t trust these numbers, it’s probably much, much worse.  

Either way, why does our financial system continue to put trust in these numbers.   Who would put trust and use an indicator that had only 30% accuracy?  This is insane but then again these markets have always been rigged.  This is yet another tool meant to confuse and deceive.  

Wall Street knows the numbers. There are other ways to figure them out. This guy touches on it in his article today; BLS Revises Nonfarm Payrolls for 2025 Lower by 1 Million Jobs

FTA:

Quote

 

For January 2026, the BLS did report a gain of 130,000. That’s highly likely to be revised lower a year from now in the next annual revision.

The BLS needs to look at actual tax data instead of flawed sampling coupled with an even more flawed Birth Death model. I have been meaning to write up a specific proposal and will do so.

 

A big Wall Street bank analyst makes more money than the CEO's of the companies he covers, or sector. The ARE the smartest guys in the room and have data we don't. They don't get fooled.

The rest is up for debate for us serfs. It's been like this since forever.  

[Screwball]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

My dad was climbing ladders into his 80s even with a couple of bad falls.  I had to take away all his ladders which really irritated him.  It was easier to get him to stop driving.    He did live to 99 though.  

I know guys that age who do as well. It only takes one opps. Buddy of mine was trimming trees into his late 70s. One day fell. 6 months later he was in a box.

Edited 1 hour ago by Screwball

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, Screwball said:

I know guys that age who do as well. It only takes one opps. Buddy of mine was trimming trees into his late 70s. One day fell. 6 months later he was in a box.

My father fell the week after he went on blood thinners and his doctor specifically told him "no more climbing ladders".  He didn't listen.  That is when I took away his ladders.  He thought he was invincible until the end.    

[Screwball]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

My father fell the week after he went on blood thinners and his doctor specifically told him "no more climbing ladders".  He didn't listen.  That is when I took away his ladders.  He thought he was invincible until the end.    

It is hard getting old and you find out you can't do things you once did. We don't want to face the truth so we keep trying. It's even tougher on the families who have to deal with this. They are trying to keep them safe for their own good, but they don't want to listen. At some point there are tough decisions that have to be made - taking away the car keys - time to get them into assisted living or a rest home. We will all face these things as we get older and those who have to care for us - if one is lucky enough to have someone care for them.

That's if you have all your mental capabilities. For those who are dealing with someone with dementia or similar - it gets a lot more difficult and complicated. One of my bartenders who is 60 has a mom like that. She calls her in the middle of the night scared out of her mind because there is a strange guy in the house - it's her husband.

Getting old is no fun for anyone. But it's part of life - and death. Wait until you have conversations with other old people about the various ways to commit suicide because they are going to do it "their way."

Jack Kevorkian had a point. When your quality of life becomes bad enough, what's the point?

[CMRivdogs]

16 minutes ago, Screwball said:

 

Jack Kevorkian had a point. When your quality of life becomes bad enough, what's the point?

I had a conversation about 15 years ago with a hospice nurse shortly after we placed my dad in hospice care. He had end stage COPD. He was then given a "button" to control his own morphine. During his first drug coma, I commented that we seem to treat our pets better than our humans at times.

I was diagnosed with ILD/IPF about 5 years ago. Still functioning fairly normally, though I get out of breath with exertion. Most of the stats are still close to what they were after the original diagnoses. That conversation still stays with me when I think about the future and my options

[Tigeraholic1]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Be careful what you wish for.  People being out of work is not a good thing for anyone.  

They will bounce back. College educated and all. 

[oblong]

My dad had quintuple bypass surgery 17 years ago this week.  He was 80 at the time. A few months later my mom called to say that he fell outside but he's ok.  I asked the details and he was in the garage.  "What was he doing?"  "Moving some tarps"

Those tarps had probably not been moved in 3 or 4 years but.... he had to move them.

We're dealing with this with my MIL.  She'll admit to doing things she's not supposed to and luckily we're a mile away.  She was trying to shovel.  Luckily my wife called her right as she started and she always answers her phone.  She's 78, two bad knees.   Uses a cane.  But she didn't want to wait for the neighbor to do it b/c of the mailman.  It was like 2 inches of snow.  So I had to run over there to finish it.  The trick is determining when to let them be when they want to help.  She walks into our house and always runs to the sink to do the dishes.  She has to feel useful.  For Thanksgiving she started to cry because we didn't need her help with anything.  That's the real challenge as we age.  I want to tell her to just relax and watch the game, let us handle the kitchen.  But especially for a old Polish woman who grew up during an era when it was always the Buscias in the kitchen while the men drank beer and watched football.... that ain't the way it's supposed to be.

[Tiger337]

20 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

They will bounce back. College educated and all. 

Not what I was saying.