Investing

[Deleterious]

 

[chasfh]

I don't know what you think, but even though I believe every administration fudges numbers here and there to make themselves look a little better, I can't help but wonder whether the Trump BLS is completely cooking these numbers.

[gehringer_2]

That's actually a better sign when looked at with the retail sales figures. Retails sales are up  - the theory is that people are trying to beat tariff price increases, but that should have given retailers some pricing leverage -  but if it did they didn't use it.

[Deleterious]

I imagine CPI numbers are fairly legit.  The formula to calculate it is public so a journalist with some hustle could get the data and plug it in to check.  Plus, the Federal Reserve does its own inflation report and it usually tracks with the BLS numbers.  It would be pretty hard to stack the Fed with yes men like a president could with the Labor Department.

Unemployment numbers on the other hand, oh boy.  I would trust the used car salesman at one of those finance anyone lots before I would trust unemployment numbers. 

[Hongbit]

4 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I imagine CPI numbers are fairly legit.  The formula to calculate it is public so a journalist with some hustle could get the data and plug it in to check.  Plus, the Federal Reserve does its own inflation report and it usually tracks with the BLS numbers.  It would be pretty hard to stack the Fed with yes men like a president could with the Labor Department.

Unemployment numbers on the other hand, oh boy.  I would trust the used car salesman at one of those finance anyone lots before I would trust unemployment numbers. 

You have stumbled upon one of the very big issues with CPI.  The BLS use a very antiquated survey system and non-transparent model of how they compline and they later revise that data. 

[gehringer_2]

33 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

You have stumbled upon one of the very big issues with CPI.  The BLS use a very antiquated survey system and non-transparent model of how they compline and they later revise that data. 

True, the counterpoint would be that for April, the number the FED appears to watch - the PCEI was up 2.8 core 2.7 overall

Edited 4 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Hongbit]

21 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

True, the counterpoint would be that for April, the number the FED appears to watch - the PCEI was up 2.8 core 2.7 overall

Part of the issue is there is a 100% chance that these numbers reported today will be revised twice.   Next month and again at the end of the year.  

Every month I scratch my head at why these reports still move markets.  Any real accuracy on a month by month number can only get done at the end of the year after the true numbers are finally put out.   

 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

I imagine CPI numbers are fairly legit.  The formula to calculate it is public so a journalist with some hustle could get the data and plug it in to check.

Then it’s the journalist’s word against the administration’s, with division along the usual lines and nothing being conclusively resolved. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

Part of the issue is there is a 100% chance that these numbers reported today will be revised twice.   Next month and again at the end of the year.  

Every month I scratch my head at why these reports still move markets.  Any real accuracy on a month by month number can only get done at the end of the year after the true numbers are finally put out.   

 

It's the old line about managing the US economy is like steering an oil tanker while only looking in the rear view mirror.

One thing for sure though, if an administration actually gets a hold on an ability to manipulate the numbers, I can't think of a clearer signal we are done as a functioning democracy.