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2023 Trade Deadline


RatkoVarda

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21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The projections would take his 2022 season into account.  

well, it's true the projections would weight it, but whether that weighting reflects anything supportable is questionable. Nobody knows why a good player has a bad year or what the probability of a player making a comebacl or not is going to be. It's unwritten history and it just isn't in the existing data to tease out no matter what you do. You can make an assumption that a certain proportion of players do X after having a year like Y, but every player is such an individual story that it's still not much more than a guess when applied to the specific player. Things like individual slumps and comebacks are beyond the reach of what statisitical method can tell you very much about.

Well, I'll amend this to the degree that a player may have an 'apparent slump' - for instance a year of vary bad BaBIP luck, but he was actually the 'same' player,  in which case the prediction that will pass would be a sound one. One strenght of advanced analytics is the ability to detect that. But if the player actually played the game at a lower skill level across a season, or has an injury that may or may not heal 100% (common issue),  then not so much. 

Edited by gehringer_2
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9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The projections would take his 2022 season into account.  

In the context of making a non-tender decision (and knowing there were likely conversations between the Tigers and Candy's agent at the time, undoubtedly), I doubt the decision to tender or non-tender exclusively comes down to a what the projection system says.

Put another way, both sides are going to use the leverage they have in a negotiation.... and Candy's most recent season being an unmitigated disaster would undoubtedly have been a point of leverage for the Tigers.

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24 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

 

3) Opportunity Cost: dropping Candy means we lost a draft pick I believe. Why would we do that? Aside from getting guys back in a deadline trade, which may or may not have more value than the draft pick... why are we tossing easy money (draft pick/ traded-for players) out the door? That's a lost opportunity cost, which I think is a mistake.

 

Are you referencing a qualifying offer?  No team would ever offer him one--that's a $18M+ guaranteed contract for one season. 

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7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I wasn't aware that Spencer Torkelson was up for arbitration last year.

But if this team is adamant about position flexibility, as you are maintaining...

Then we should trade him, right?

Because Torkelson is not position-flexible. At all.

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4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

But if this team is adamant about position flexibility, as you are maintaining...

Then we should trade him, right?

Because Torkelson is not position-flexible. At all.

I think Torkelson should be open for the right asking price, yes.

Riley Greene is probably the only untouchable player on the roster IMO.

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