gehringer_2 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Edman85 said: Per "The Book," small sample hot streaks for hitters tend to be not-very-predictive because a lot of times it comes in multiple plate appearances against the same pitcher. Thus, the hot streak could be a result of a pitcher being a particularly good match-up, poor quality, etc. Were any of those 8 PA's against a LHP? A batter versus a RHP is not the same batter as one against the LHP, particularly a left-handed batter. and yet if your Cy Young winning pitcher with a 1.00 WHIP and 2.0 ERA gives up 5 by the 2nd, you aren't going to leave him in because the odds say he shouldn't give up any more runs. Everyone recognizes that pitchers can be off or on, but by some magic hitters must always conform to their averages? Now granted, it's harder for anyone not in the hitter's skin to know what his state is as easily as in the case of a pitcher, but that the fact that it it's less knowable doesn't mean it isn't as true. Edited September 4, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 what a sweet sweep. just think how many more runs we would have scored if AJ hadnt pulled badoo. what an ignoranamous! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: and yet if your Cy Young winning pitcher with a 1.00 WHIP and 2.0 ERA gives up 5 by the 2nd, you aren't going to leave him in because the odds say he shouldn't give up any more runs. Everyone recognizes that pitchers can be off or on, but by some magic hitters must always conform to their averages? Now granted, it's harder for anyone not in the hitter's skin to know what his state is as easily as in the case of a pitcher, but that the fact that it it's less knowable doesn't mean it isn't as true. According to The Book, pitcher streaks are more predictive than batter streaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 The Yankees are really hot. Beware. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, Tiger337 said: According to The Book, pitcher streaks are more predictive than batter streaks. but there is no human factors reason to believe that should be true. I think what is at work is simply that you have more randomness superimposed in the 'signal' from a batter (like BaBIP luck) so it's harder to find. The assumption that all the things you happen to be able to measure is all there is is a risky one. 😱 Edited September 4, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: but there is no human factors reason to believe that should be true. I think what is at work is simply that you have more randomness superimposed in the 'signal' from a batter (like BaBIP luck) so it's harder to find. The assumption that all the things you happen to be able to measure is all there is is a risky one. 😱 The human factor is that pitchers have more control over results than batters do. You can always find outliers in any data. Figuring out who is going to be an outlier is really difficult though. Thinking that Baddoo is going to be one of them when going about against a lefty seems like a bad gamble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Tiger337 said: The human factor is that pitchers have more control over results than batters do. OK - I think that is another way of saying the same thing. A hitter who is not really in control of his swing is still going to 'run into a few' and may get some BaBIP luck, a pitcher whose control is gone is not going to accidentally throw enough strikes. But that doesn't change the underlying condition that both may not be in their top condition to be playing the game on a given day. Their is nothing about hitting or pitching that a priori makes athletes more immune to physical ups and down doing one than the other. It just that the outcomes get more disguised for hitters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted September 4, 2023 Author Share Posted September 4, 2023 On 9/3/2023 at 10:45 AM, Toddwert said: just FYI game time is 2:10 PM Man, I’ve been awful lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted September 4, 2023 Author Share Posted September 4, 2023 18 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: I think it depends on what you define as a 'streak'. Personally, I define it as “I’m done with the Andy Ibanez experience, please call someone up on his place”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 21 hours ago, casimir said: Man, I’ve been awful lately. It's just a cold streak. I am going assume average performance on your next thread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: It's just a cold streak. I am going assume average performance on your next thread. The off day came at the perfect time for Cas. You could tell by his performance he needed a day off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.