Week Thirteen: Detroit Lions (8-3) @ New Orleans Saints (5-6)

[RandyMarsh]

11 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Lions have not lost while wearing their all-white uniforms since December 26, 2021.

Throwing that out there in case anyone from the Lions was planning ahead for a road playoff game.

Its funny cause I was just thinking and wondering that when watching the game. 

Just like Michigan in their all whites, its been atleast since 2020 since their 3 losses since then they wore the white with maize pants(msu loss), all blue against UGA and blue with maize pants against TCU.

[NYLion]

22 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

When I look at the defense, I don't think they're that far away from being very good, regardless of questions about Glenn and scheme.

On the line, Hutchinson, McNeill, Paschal, and Houston will likely be here and honestly make up a pretty good core. Martin too I guess. Cut weight with pretty much everybody else. We don't need Levi, the Okwaras, and Charles Harris wasting roster spots. Pick up an edge who can win a one-on-one battle in both free agency and the draft. The linebackers are largely set and should only improve as Campbell develops. In the secondary, Sutton, Branch, Walker, and Joseph will likely be here. Re-sign CJGJ to another one-year deal if he wants it and pick up a CB2 with two ACLs in free agency.

With just that, two free agents and one draft pick, I think the defense is somewhere in the good to great range, instead of watching Hutch get double teamed and a mediocre QB getting all day to find whoever Jerry Jacobs is supposed to be covering.

It should also be noted when evaluating the defense is that they've been missing their best PURE pass rusher and quite possibly their two best secondary players pretty much the entire season. That would be tough for most teams to overcome and is also why I have a hard time putting all the blame on Glenn. I see issues with Glenn's scheme in terms of not knowing when to blitz, blitzing at the wrong times, not using enough D-Line stunts, coverage disguises etc. but he's working with a beat up group.

[MichiganCardinal]

1 hour ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

have you heard if they will wear the alternate helmet anymore this year?

I haven't seen anything. Usually they don't announce it until pretty soon before the game. I'm not sure how far in ahead it's actually planned.

[Jason_R]

1 hour ago, NYLion said:

It should also be noted when evaluating the defense is that they've been missing their best PURE pass rusher and quite possibly their two best secondary players pretty much the entire season. That would be tough for most teams to overcome and is also why I have a hard time putting all the blame on Glenn. I see issues with Glenn's scheme in terms of not knowing when to blitz, blitzing at the wrong times, not using enough D-Line stunts, coverage disguises etc. but he's working with a beat up group.

Yes. Moseley was a roll of the dice. Holmes rolls the dice a lot on injured players, and the return has generally been bad, though Jaymo is starting to bring the juice we were promised.

But starting the season it would have been hard to imagine the team might only get 200 snaps out of Moseley, CJGJ, and Houston combined. 

[Longgone]

19 hours ago, Jason_R said:

Yes. Moseley was a roll of the dice. Holmes rolls the dice a lot on injured players, and the return has generally been bad, though Jaymo is starting to bring the juice we were promised.

But starting the season it would have been hard to imagine the team might only get 200 snaps out of Moseley, CJGJ, and Houston combined. 

Moseley was a fluke, tearing the opposite knee.

[Jason_R]

26 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Moseley was a fluke, tearing the opposite knee.

Not a fluke. "Tearing the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in one knee means you have an increased risk of tearing the ACL in your other knee." Holmes's medical staff must know this. https://acltear.info/acl-reinjury-risk/contralateral-acl-retear-risk/

[RedRamage]

3 hours ago, Jason_R said:

Not a fluke. "Tearing the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in one knee means you have an increased risk of tearing the ACL in your other knee." Holmes's medical staff must know this. https://acltear.info/acl-reinjury-risk/contralateral-acl-retear-risk/

Using the Calculator on that page and using the oldest age allow (22 years old - Moseley is 27) the calculator shows between a 4.9% and 7.0% chance of tearing the other ACL within 6 years. That doesn't seem like an incredibly high chance to me.

[Jason_R]

48 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Using the Calculator on that page and using the oldest age allow (22 years old - Moseley is 27) the calculator shows between a 4.9% and 7.0% chance of tearing the other ACL within 6 years. That doesn't seem like an incredibly high chance to me.

Nevertheless it is not zero, which Holmes and the medical team must have known. Also since Moseley is five years older than the oldest age in that database, it would not be unreasonable to assume that his risk for injuring the other ACL was higher than the 5-7% range  

The point is not that Holmes made a mistake in signing Moseley. It is that Holmes does, by now, have a track record of gambling on players with an injury history. Levi will need a miracle to avoid being a bust. Jaymo is in the middle of his second season and is still just getting settled. Moseley obviously didn’t work out. Hooker remains to be seen. There might be an argument to include Josh Paschal in this with the cancer surgeries in college. But even without him, Holmes still has a clear track record of taking chances on injured players.

[RedRamage]

11 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Nevertheless it is not zero, which Holmes and the medical team must have known. Also since Moseley is five years older than the oldest age in that database, it would not be unreasonable to assume that his risk for injuring the other ACL was higher than the 5-7% range  

The point is not that Holmes made a mistake in signing Moseley. It is that Holmes does, by now, have a track record of gambling on players with an injury history. Levi will need a miracle to avoid being a bust. Jaymo is in the middle of his second season and is still just getting settled. Moseley obviously didn’t work out. Hooker remains to be seen. There might be an argument to include Josh Paschal in this with the cancer surgeries in college. But even without him, Holmes still has a clear track record of taking chances on injured players.

Actually the percentages seemed to go down with age, not up. Obviously it's just a calculator, not a perfect predictor. And yes, it's not zero, but my point is that it's not very high and injuries in football happen all the time. I won't avoid someone based solely on a 5% increase in major injury.

And while Holmes does have a history of history of acquiring injured players I still don't think a 5% increase is that much. Obviously it's one of many factors that need to be considered.

[Jason_R]

3 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Actually the percentages seemed to go down with age, not up. Obviously it's just a calculator, not a perfect predictor. And yes, it's not zero, but my point is that it's not very high and injuries in football happen all the time. I won't avoid someone based solely on a 5% increase in major injury.

And while Holmes does have a history of history of acquiring injured players I still don't think a 5% increase is that much. Obviously it's one of many factors that need to be considered.

You can apologize for Holmes all you want, and he deserves it since he is already Detroit’s best GM ever. But you can’t sit here and tell me that he doesn’t have a thing for betting on injured players. He does. And you can’t tell me that a guy coming off an ACL was not an injury risk. He was. Maybe his bets will pay off overall. So far they have not. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

34 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

You can apologize for Holmes all you want, and he deserves it since he is already Detroit’s best GM ever. But you can’t sit here and tell me that he doesn’t have a thing for betting on injured players. He does. And you can’t tell me that a guy coming off an ACL was not an injury risk. He was. Maybe his bets will pay off overall. So far they have not. 

Not to forget that he wanted to trade up from the second round back into the first to draft a player with back problems (Levi) too according to reports at the time. I like Holmes a whole lot, but it is clear he is willing to take the risk on injured and/or injury-pronged players.

[MichiganCardinal]

37 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

You can apologize for Holmes all you want, and he deserves it since he is already Detroit’s best GM ever. But you can’t sit here and tell me that he doesn’t have a thing for betting on injured players. He does. And you can’t tell me that a guy coming off an ACL was not an injury risk. He was. Maybe his bets will pay off overall. So far they have not. 

I think there is a slight distinction to be made here between players who have sustained an injury and (perceived) value. Like I don't think Holmes is Billy Beane, asking how many injuries a guy has instead of his OBP. Rather, he is willing to be patient with a guy who others will pass on because of a lack of instant impact.

He wasn't interested in Jamo because he had torn his ACL. He was interested because he was available at 9 when he was a top five talent (in Holmes' book). Similarly with Josh Paschal and James Mitchell in 2022, and with Hooker in the 3rd round this past draft. They weren't drafted because they were hurt, they were drafted because we saw a high talent dropping (yes due to injury) and were willing to wait out the recovery to potentially get what we saw as a 1st or 2nd round talent the following year.

Levi too to an extent, clearly he thought the value was there, though his college record really couldn't have predicted the injury issues at the pro level, so I don't put that bust (at least to the extent it's injury related) on Holmes as much.

[Motown Bombers]

Speaking of the Levi draft, it's good thing Holmes double dipped at DT. McNeil has turned out to be a pretty good pick and Howie Roseman out smarted himself on that one. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[Jason_R]

47 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think there is a slight distinction to be made here between players who have sustained an injury and (perceived) value. Like I don't think Holmes is Billy Beane, asking how many injuries a guy has instead of his OBP. Rather, he is willing to be patient with a guy who others will pass on because of a lack of instant impact.

He wasn't interested in Jamo because he had torn his ACL. He was interested because he was available at 9 when he was a top five talent (in Holmes' book). Similarly with Josh Paschal and James Mitchell in 2022, and with Hooker in the 3rd round this past draft. They weren't drafted because they were hurt, they were drafted because we saw a high talent dropping (yes due to injury) and were willing to wait out the recovery to potentially get what we saw as a 1st or 2nd round talent the following year.

Levi too to an extent, clearly he thought the value was there, though his college record really couldn't have predicted the injury issues at the pro level, so I don't put that bust (at least to the extent it's injury related) on Holmes as much.

I’m not saying Holmes likes injured players. What a weird fetish that would be. I said he bets on injured players which is exactly what you said. I just happen to think it is delusional to assume that there is zero risk in buying low. If there was zero risk, you wouldn’t be able to buy low. 
 

Holmes wants to buy low. It’s fine as a strategy and he might end up winning more than he loses. But his account is in the red at this moment. 

[MichiganCardinal]

 

[Longgone]

5 hours ago, Jason_R said:

Nevertheless it is not zero, which Holmes and the medical team must have known. Also since Moseley is five years older than the oldest age in that database, it would not be unreasonable to assume that his risk for injuring the other ACL was higher than the 5-7% range  

The point is not that Holmes made a mistake in signing Moseley. It is that Holmes does, by now, have a track record of gambling on players with an injury history. Levi will need a miracle to avoid being a bust. Jaymo is in the middle of his second season and is still just getting settled. Moseley obviously didn’t work out. Hooker remains to be seen. There might be an argument to include Josh Paschal in this with the cancer surgeries in college. But even without him, Holmes still has a clear track record of taking chances on injured players.

This is illogical. Football is a violent sport. The majority of players have some type of injury history, or soon will. Every team takes chances on them. People on here were upset the Lions didn't trade for Chase Young, what is he but a walking history of injuries?

[Jason_R]

57 minutes ago, Longgone said:

This is illogical. Football is a violent sport. The majority of players have some type of injury history, or soon will. Every team takes chances on them. People on here were upset the Lions didn't trade for Chase Young, what is he but a walking history of injuries?

No, not every player is injured when they are drafted. And some GMs don’t go out of their way to pick players who are literally rehabilitating from surgery. Holmes traded up to pick rehabbing players Williams and Hooker in two of the first three years of his tenure. I also forgot he picked the rehabbing James Mitchell who has 229 snaps in two seasons. He has a track record. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Jason_R

[Longgone]

17 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

No, not every player is injured when they are drafted. And some GMs don’t go out of their way to pick players who are literally rehabilitating from surgery. Holmes traded up to pick rehabbing players Williams and Hooker in two of the first three years of his tenure. I also forgot he picked the rehabbing James Mitchell who has 229 snaps in two seasons. He has a track record. 

Except you’re singling out Holmes, all teams do this. Do you pay any attention to the rate of attrition in college football and the NFL? If you didn't take a chance on previously injured players, you'd be drawing from a very small pool.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Longgone

[Jason_R]

22 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Except you’re singling out Holmes, all teams do this. Do you pay any attention to the rate of attrition in college football and the NFL? If you didn't take a chance on previously injured players, you'd be drawing from a very small pool.

If there is another GM who traded up to pick two rehabbing players in the last three drafts, please let me know. 

[Adullin]

Wow drop a pass throw a pick don't pick the fumble up. Lions are self destructing 

[Adullin]

Touchdown!!!!!!@

[MichiganCardinal]

14 minutes ago, Adullin said:

Touchdown!!!!!!@

You're in the wrong thread. Half the place is on fire and half the place is a party in the other thread. It's a great time.