bobrob2004 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #1 – Spencer Enochs Torkelson After a disappointing rookie season in which Tork only hit .203/.285/.319 with 8 home runs and 28 RBI in 110 games, he bounced back with a .233/.313/.446 batting line in 2023 in 159 games with an impressive 31 home runs (T-7th in the American League). It was the latter half of the season in which he finally showed Tiger fans the kind of power hitter he could be at the Major League level. MAR-JUL: 447 PA | .227/.304/.403 | 15 HR | 43 BB | 108 K AUG-OCT: 237 PA | .244/.329/.526 | 16 HR | 24 BB | 63 K While his batting average slightly improved the last two months, it was his power increase that really stood out. Torkelson only averaged 3.4 home runs per plate appearances in his first 447 plate appearances, but that doubled to 6.8 home runs per plate appearances the final 237 plate appearances. At that pace, he would have had 46 home runs over a full season, which would have been most in the American League. Of course, the problem here is sample size; two months is not a sufficient enough sample to be making a lot of significant analysis (looking at you, 2020 Willi Castro). On the one hand, it could be a fluke. On the other hand, Torkelson is a former first round, first overall draft pick who was a top five prospect in both 2021 and 2022. Seeing him breakout was not only not surprising, but somewhat inevitable. Torkelson is entering his age 24-season, so it would not even be that surprising to see him improve further on these numbers over a full 2024 season. Looking at Tork’s splits, one thing that jumps out is that he’s a much better hitter on the road than at home (even after moving the fences in): Home: 340 PA | .219/.312/.387 | 11 HR | 37 RBI Away: 344 PA | .246/.314/.502 | 20 HR | 57 RBI Other weaknesses for Torkelson include his high strikeout rate (25 percent), trouble hitting off-speed pitches (.127 batting average against changeups), and his below average defense (-11 DRS). But again, he is just entering his third Major League season and has not even reached his prime years yet. There’s a lot of reasons to be optimistic this season. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 568 AB | .242/.331/.456 | 30 HR | 89 RBI | 3 SB | 71 BB | 152 K ZiPS DC – 578 AB | .243/.326/.476 | 33 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 155 K THE BAT X – 551 AB | .247/.330/.457 | 27 HR | 86 RBI | 3 SB | 64 BB | 148 K ATC – 550 AB | .244/.329/.461 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 3 SB |65 BB | 150 K FGDC – 575 AB | .243/.329/.466 | 32 HR | 92 RBI | 3 SB | 70 BB | 154 K RotoChamp – 558 AB | .244/.331/.462 | 30 HR | 88 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 149 K CBS Sports – 468 AB | .259/.340/.485 | 25 HR | 75 RBI | 3 SB | 53 BB | 131 K ESPN – 607 AB | .241/.315/.465 | 34 HR | 80 RBI | 2 SB | 62 BB | 165 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 538 AB | .232/.320/.396 | 20 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K 2023 Actual – 606 AB | .233/.313/.446 | 31 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 171 K 2024 Prediction – 603 AB | .231/.315/.483 | 39 HR | 99 RBI | 2 SB | 71 BB | 175 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 3 hours ago, bobrob2004 said: Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #1 – Spencer Enochs Torkelson After a disappointing rookie season in which Tork only hit .203/.285/.319 with 8 home runs and 28 RBI in 110 games, he bounced back with a .233/.313/.446 batting line in 2023 in 159 games with an impressive 31 home runs (T-7th in the American League). It was the latter half of the season in which he finally showed Tiger fans the kind of power hitter he could be at the Major League level. MAR-JUL: 447 PA | .227/.304/.403 | 15 HR | 43 BB | 108 K AUG-OCT: 237 PA | .244/.329/.526 | 16 HR | 24 BB | 63 K While his batting average slightly improved the last two months, it was his power increase that really stood out. Torkelson only averaged 3.4 home runs per plate appearances in his first 447 plate appearances, but that doubled to 6.8 home runs per plate appearances the final 237 plate appearances. At that pace, he would have had 46 home runs over a full season, which would have been most in the American League. Of course, the problem here is sample size; two months is not a sufficient enough sample to be making a lot of significant analysis (looking at you, 2020 Willi Castro). On the one hand, it could be a fluke. On the other hand, Torkelson is a former first round, first overall draft pick who was a top five prospect in both 2021 and 2022. Seeing him breakout was not only not surprising, but somewhat inevitable. Torkelson is entering his age 24-season, so it would not even be that surprising to see him improve further on these numbers over a full 2024 season. Looking at Tork’s splits, one thing that jumps out is that he’s a much better hitter on the road than at home (even after moving the fences in): Home: 340 PA | .219/.312/.387 | 11 HR | 37 RBI Away: 344 PA | .246/.314/.502 | 20 HR | 57 RBI Other weaknesses for Torkelson include his high strikeout rate (25 percent), trouble hitting off-speed pitches (.127 batting average against changeups), and his below average defense (-11 DRS). But again, he is just entering his third Major League season and has not even reached his prime years yet. There’s a lot of reasons to be optimistic this season. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 568 AB | .242/.331/.456 | 30 HR | 89 RBI | 3 SB | 71 BB | 152 K ZiPS DC – 578 AB | .243/.326/.476 | 33 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 155 K THE BAT X – 551 AB | .247/.330/.457 | 27 HR | 86 RBI | 3 SB | 64 BB | 148 K ATC – 550 AB | .244/.329/.461 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 3 SB |65 BB | 150 K FGDC – 575 AB | .243/.329/.466 | 32 HR | 92 RBI | 3 SB | 70 BB | 154 K RotoChamp – 558 AB | .244/.331/.462 | 30 HR | 88 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 149 K CBS Sports – 468 AB | .259/.340/.485 | 25 HR | 75 RBI | 3 SB | 53 BB | 131 K ESPN – 607 AB | .241/.315/.465 | 34 HR | 80 RBI | 2 SB | 62 BB | 165 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 538 AB | .232/.320/.396 | 20 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K 2023 Actual – 606 AB | .233/.313/.446 | 31 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 171 K 2024 Prediction – 603 AB | .231/.315/.483 | 39 HR | 99 RBI | 2 SB | 71 BB | 175 K So is he Rob Deer ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said: So is he Rob Deer ? sure if you consider only Rob Deer's lone decent year and ignore his other 9 seasons 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) I think there's a good chance TORK! clears both .500 SLG and forty bombs, even with half his games at home, based on the idea that whatever clicked in August is sustainable, especially if this coaching team is focusing on him, which I believe they will. Edited February 25 by chasfh 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted February 27 Author Share Posted February 27 Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Greene Another young Tigers’ hitter that broke out last year was Riley Greene, who hit .288/.349/.447 with a 119 wRC+. However, Greene only played in 99 games (416 PA). This is the second year in a row that Greene has missed a significant part of the season due to injury; in 2022 he missed the first part of the season due to a foot injury that he suffered during Spring Training and only played in 93 games (418 PA). In 2023 he missed the month of June due to injury as well as having Tommy John surgery in September on his non-throwing arm (although he is expected to be on the Opening Day roster). Hopefully 2024 is the year that he can get a full season workload in. Just like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene was a former first round draft pick and was the fourth best overall prospect according to Baseball America prior to the 2022 season. So, after having a slightly below average season his rookie year (.253/.321/.362, 96 wRC+), it is no surprise that Greene became one of the Tigers’ better hitters in 2023. Although, one stat that sticks out is his .384 batting average of balls in play (BABIP), which usually indicates a bit of good fortune when it is that high. However, his expected batting average, XBA, was .289 (.288 actual batting average) and his expected wOBA was .365 (.363 actual wOBA). This indicates no luck at all. Regardless, it will be very difficult to repeat a BABIP that high again (especially over a full season workload). One stat I’d like to point out is his vast difference in launch angles: 2022 – 2.8 degrees launch angle | 20.1% LD% | 56.0% GB% | 23.9% FB% | 8.1% HR/FB 2023 – 6.6 degrees launch angle | 26.3% LD% | 48.9% GB% | 24.8% FB% | 16.7% HR/FB Riley Greene is entering his age-23 season, so he is in a good position to improve on his stats after already seeing some success in 2023. It is nice to see that his ground ball rate went from over 50 percent in 2022 to below 50 percent in 2023, due to the difference in launch angles. The more balls that Greene can drive in the air, the more power he will produce, which resulted in more than doubling his home run to fly ball ratio last year. Greene has enough speed to beat out a ground ball (.254 AVG on GB), he also stole seven bases and had four triples in his limited playing time last year. I can easily see his stolen base numbers in the double digits this year, if he can stay healthy. Similarly to Torkelson, Greene also has weaknesses in strikeouts (27.4 percent strikeout rate) and below average defense (-5 DRS in centerfield). However, having Parker Meadows take over in centerfield with Greene moving to one of the corners should help with his defense. Also like Torkelson, Greene now has Major League experience, a bit of Major League success, and youth on his side to overall improve in 2024. Now he just needs to stay healthy. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 573 AB | .273/.343/.438 | 18 HR | 71 RBI | 8 SB | 58 BB | 163 K ZiPS DC – 555 AB | .268/.336/.438 | 19 HR | 69 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 161 K THE BAT X – 520 AB | .265/.340/.432 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 151 K ATC – 524 AB | .267/.343/.433 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 10 SB | 51 BB | 153 K FGDC – 551 AB | .270/.339/.438 | 18 HR | 69 RBI | 8 SB | 55 BB | 158 K RotoChamp – 532 AB | .271/.340/.436 | 17 HR | 66 RBI | 9 SB | 54 BB | 154 K CBS Sports – 494 AB | .298/.362/.488 | 18 HR | 60 RBI | 11 SB | 48 BB | 143 K ESPN – 527 AB | .268/.340/.442 | 16 HR | 56 RBI | 9 SB | 56 BB | 152 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 521 AB | .267/.338/.438 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 152 K 2023 Actual – 378 AB | .288/.349/.447 | 11 HR | 37 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 114 K 2024 Prediction – 596 AB | .277/.339/.435 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 172 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 On 2/25/2024 at 1:59 PM, KL2 said: sure if you consider only Rob Deer's lone decent year and ignore his other 9 seasons What did you think of Dean Palmer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 On 2/25/2024 at 9:11 AM, bobrob2004 said: While his batting average slightly improved the last two months, it was his power increase that really stood out. Torkelson only averaged 3.4 home runs per plate appearance I don't want to nitpick your hard work, but I think you meant 3.4 HR per 100 PA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted February 27 Author Share Posted February 27 26 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I don't want to nitpick your hard work, but I think you meant 3.4 HR per 100 PA. Yes, I put the wrong label. It should have simply read 3.4 percent home run rate (HR/PA). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Bobrob2004 is solid predictor and if so does the Tork and Greene numbers meet everyones expectations or were we planning on more. I was and still am especially Greene. We need one of these to really blossom to lead this team. I thought Greene was a .300 -.350 - .475 825 OPs player and Tork a .270-.325-.500 and 825 as well. I think we need this to happen to win the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted February 29 Author Share Posted February 29 Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #3 – Tarik Daniel Skubal Tarik Skubal emerged as the Tigers best starting pitcher in 2023 in terms of ERA (2.80), WHIP (0.867), K/BB (7.29), and HR/9 (0.45). According to FanGraphs, he was also the top Tigers’ player in WAR at 3.3 wins, even beating out all of the hitters, despite missing half of the year. Among all pitchers in the league with at least 80 innings pitched, Skubal was 7th in ERA, 7th in K/9 (11.43), 8th in BB/9 (1.57), and 2nd in HR/9. He was also first in both FIP (2.00) and xFIP (2.56), indicating that his success wasn’t a fluke or based on luck (in fact you could argue he was a bit unlucky). If he can keep his pace for a full 30-32 start season, he will no doubt be a top 10 pitcher in all of baseball in 2024. “If” is the key part, though. It’s hard for any pitcher to keep that kind of pace for a full season, especially for someone who hasn’t done it at the Major League level yet. However, Skubal is entering his age-27 season, right in his prime years, so he’s in a good position to do so as long as he can stay healthy. In August of 2022, he had flexor tendon surgery that kept him out until the middle of the 2023 season, limiting him to only 15 starts. A lot of Skubal’s success has come in improving on the three true outcomes, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Another stat that he has greatly improved on is his ground ball rate, which went over 50 percent in 2023. This is great for a pitcher as it can limit the amount of damage a hitter can do, such as limiting the home runs. 2021 – 9.88 K/9 | 2.83 BB/9 | 2.11 HR/9 | 38.5% GB% 2022 – 8.95 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 0.69 HR/9 | 45.7% GB% 2023 – 11.43 K/9 | 1.57 BB/9 | 0.45 HR/9 | 51.6% GB% Tarik Skubal has done everything that I like to see a young pitcher do, high strikeouts, low walks and home runs, and a high groundball rate. There is really very little to critique here other than hoping that he can stay healthy and durable all year. There is one split stat that is worth noting here. Skubal was noticeably better at home than he was on the road. Home – 39 1/3 IP | 1.37 ERA | 59 K | 7 BB Away – 41 IP | 4.17 ERA | 43 K | 7 BB However, we are back to talking about small sample sizes here. There is one start that has skewed these stats, July 18 at Kansas City, where Skubal allowed 7 earned runs. This is the only start in which he gave up more than 5 earned runs. In three starts, he allowed 4 earned runs each. The remaining 11 starts, he allowed 2 earned runs or less. He particularly finished strong; in his last 5 starts, he allowed 2 runs or fewer and in 3 of these starts he pitched 7 innings/start. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 171 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.32 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 198 K | 46 BB ZiPS DC – 144 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.65 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 150 K | 36 BB THE BAT – 139 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.50 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 161 K | 41 BB ATC – 155 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.44 ERA | 1.12 WHIP | 177 K | 41 BB FGDC – 158 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.47 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 174 K | 41 BB RotoChamp – 151 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.46 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 170 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – 167 IP | 13-7 W/ L | 3.18 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 183 K | 42 BB ESPN – 153 IP | 11 W | 3.18 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 188 K | 39 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 80 1/3 IP | 7-3 W/L | 2.80 ERA | 0.896 WHIP | 102 K | 14 BB 2024 Prediction – 163 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.92 ERA | 0.986 WHIP | 179 K | 38 BB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #4 – Kerry William Carpenter Kerry Carpenter was drafted in the 19th round by the Tigers in 2019 and unexpectedly rose through the ranks, hitting .252/.310/.485 with 6 HR in 113 PA for the Tigers in 2022. In 2023, he forced himself into a bigger role by continuing to hit and sharing the DH spot with Miguel Cabrera. He finished with a .278/.340/.471 batting line with 20 home runs. Going into 2024, he has a more secure role in the starting lineup. Will he continue to hit? The answer: maybe..? Manager A.J. Hinch likes a flexible roster and playing lefty/righty matchups. The Tigers have a slew of left-handed hitting outfielders (Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Akil Baddoo, Zach McKinstry), so the addition of right-handed hitter Mark Canha will fit right in. And while not a strict platoon, sitting Carpenter against tough left-handed pitching might be a great idea. Vs. RHP – 381 PA | .286/.341/.500 | 18 HR Vs. LHP – 78 PA | .235/.333/.324 | 2 HR Kerry Carpenter loses a lot of power against left-handed pitchers, but his .194 overall ISO is very good and was third on the Tigers team behind Jake Rogers (.224) and Spencer Torkelson (.213). As with several other Tiger hitters, he struggles with the strikeouts (25.1 percent) and he also had a below average 7.0 percent walk rate. He is entering his age-26 season, so he is just entering his prime years; there is a good chance that we haven’t seen the very best out of Carpenter yet. However, there is the fact that Carpenter pretty much came out of nowhere. For every J.D. Martinez, there are five Brennan Boesch’s. It’s far more likely that Carpenter turns into Boesch than Martinez. While he has a good hard hit rate (35.5 percent) and a decent home run to fly ball ratio (18.5 percent), he also hits the ball on the ground too much for my liking (44.7 percent) and he tends to be a pull hitter (45.1 percent). The word is out and opposing pitchers are going to try to expose these weaknesses, such as throwing more breaking pitches; he only has a .151 batting average against sliders with a 30 percent strikeout rate. The last month of the season, he hit .250/.314/.315 with 0 home runs in 118 plate appearances after coming off a monstrous August in which he hit .347/.405/.654 with 9 home runs in 111 plate appearances. That’s not to say he cannot overcome these weaknesses. He is still young and only time will tell if he has a career more like Boesch or J.D. But how will he do in 2024? There is still a lot of uncertainty with Carpenter and it could go either way, so here’s hoping he goes in the right direction. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 466 AB | .255/.318/.447 | 21 HR | 71 RBI | 4 SB | 37 BB | 127 K ZiPS DC – 473 AB | .256/.315/.439 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 4 SB | 33 BB | 122 K THE BAT X – 483 AB | .253/.318/.439 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 6 SB | 40 BB | 129 K ATC – 485 AB | .258/.320/.456 | 23 HR | 73 RBI | 5 SB | 38 BB | 131 K FGDC – 471 AB | .256/.316/.443 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 4 SB | 35 BB | 125 K RotoChamp – 480 AB | .256/.324/.448 | 21 HR | 71 RBI | 5 SB | 37 BB | 128 K CBS Sports – 478 AB | .289/.356/.487 | 22 HR | 72 RBI | 9 SB | 39 BB | 127 K ESPN – 497 AB | .266/.333/.463 | 23 HR | 68 RBI | 6 SB | 41 BB | 138 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 418 AB | .278/.340/.471 | 20 HR | 64 RBI | 6 SB | 32 BB | 115 K 2024 Prediction – 473 AB | .262/.330/.467 | 24 HR | 68 RBI | 7 SB | 39 BB | 118 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theroundsquare Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Every time I think about Kerry, I think about September, and then I think of Boesch. Crossing my fingers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 On 2/29/2024 at 9:48 AM, bobrob2004 said: Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #3 – Tarik Daniel Skubal Tarik Skubal emerged as the Tigers best starting pitcher in 2023 in terms of ERA (2.80), WHIP (0.867), K/BB (7.29), and HR/9 (0.45). According to FanGraphs, he was also the top Tigers’ player in WAR at 3.3 wins, even beating out all of the hitters, despite missing half of the year. Among all pitchers in the league with at least 80 innings pitched, Skubal was 7th in ERA, 7th in K/9 (11.43), 8th in BB/9 (1.57), and 2nd in HR/9. He was also first in both FIP (2.00) and xFIP (2.56), indicating that his success wasn’t a fluke or based on luck (in fact you could argue he was a bit unlucky). If he can keep his pace for a full 30-32 start season, he will no doubt be a top 10 pitcher in all of baseball in 2024. “If” is the key part, though. It’s hard for any pitcher to keep that kind of pace for a full season, especially for someone who hasn’t done it at the Major League level yet. However, Skubal is entering his age-27 season, right in his prime years, so he’s in a good position to do so as long as he can stay healthy. In August of 2022, he had flexor tendon surgery that kept him out until the middle of the 2023 season, limiting him to only 15 starts. A lot of Skubal’s success has come in improving on the three true outcomes, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Another stat that he has greatly improved on is his ground ball rate, which went over 50 percent in 2023. This is great for a pitcher as it can limit the amount of damage a hitter can do, such as limiting the home runs. 2021 – 9.88 K/9 | 2.83 BB/9 | 2.11 HR/9 | 38.5% GB% 2022 – 8.95 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 0.69 HR/9 | 45.7% GB% 2023 – 11.43 K/9 | 1.57 BB/9 | 0.45 HR/9 | 51.6% GB% Tarik Skubal has done everything that I like to see a young pitcher do, high strikeouts, low walks and home runs, and a high groundball rate. There is really very little to critique here other than hoping that he can stay healthy and durable all year. There is one split stat that is worth noting here. Skubal was noticeably better at home than he was on the road. Home – 39 1/3 IP | 1.37 ERA | 59 K | 7 BB Away – 41 IP | 4.17 ERA | 43 K | 7 BB However, we are back to talking about small sample sizes here. There is one start that has skewed these stats, July 18 at Kansas City, where Skubal allowed 7 earned runs. This is the only start in which he gave up more than 5 earned runs. In three starts, he allowed 4 earned runs each. The remaining 11 starts, he allowed 2 earned runs or less. He particularly finished strong; in his last 5 starts, he allowed 2 runs or fewer and in 3 of these starts he pitched 7 innings/start. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 171 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.32 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 198 K | 46 BB ZiPS DC – 144 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.65 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 150 K | 36 BB THE BAT – 139 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.50 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 161 K | 41 BB ATC – 155 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.44 ERA | 1.12 WHIP | 177 K | 41 BB FGDC – 158 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.47 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 174 K | 41 BB RotoChamp – 151 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.46 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 170 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – 167 IP | 13-7 W/ L | 3.18 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 183 K | 42 BB ESPN – 153 IP | 11 W | 3.18 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 188 K | 39 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 80 1/3 IP | 7-3 W/L | 2.80 ERA | 0.896 WHIP | 102 K | 14 BB 2024 Prediction – 163 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.92 ERA | 0.986 WHIP | 179 K | 38 BB I think Skubal wipes out your K9 rate and falls just short of 1 WHIP. I also think he might be able to beat 3 ERA. The tricky part for him will be the 163 innings. I think I'd be happy with anything over 130. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 On 3/2/2024 at 10:38 AM, bobrob2004 said: Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #4 – Kerry William Carpenter Kerry Carpenter was drafted in the 19th round by the Tigers in 2019 and unexpectedly rose through the ranks, hitting .252/.310/.485 with 6 HR in 113 PA for the Tigers in 2022. In 2023, he forced himself into a bigger role by continuing to hit and sharing the DH spot with Miguel Cabrera. He finished with a .278/.340/.471 batting line with 20 home runs. Going into 2024, he has a more secure role in the starting lineup. Will he continue to hit? The answer: maybe..? Manager A.J. Hinch likes a flexible roster and playing lefty/righty matchups. The Tigers have a slew of left-handed hitting outfielders (Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Akil Baddoo, Zach McKinstry), so the addition of right-handed hitter Mark Canha will fit right in. And while not a strict platoon, sitting Carpenter against tough left-handed pitching might be a great idea. Vs. RHP – 381 PA | .286/.341/.500 | 18 HR Vs. LHP – 78 PA | .235/.333/.324 | 2 HR Kerry Carpenter loses a lot of power against left-handed pitchers, but his .194 overall ISO is very good and was third on the Tigers team behind Jake Rogers (.224) and Spencer Torkelson (.213). As with several other Tiger hitters, he struggles with the strikeouts (25.1 percent) and he also had a below average 7.0 percent walk rate. He is entering his age-26 season, so he is just entering his prime years; there is a good chance that we haven’t seen the very best out of Carpenter yet. However, there is the fact that Carpenter pretty much came out of nowhere. For every J.D. Martinez, there are five Brennan Boesch’s. It’s far more likely that Carpenter turns into Boesch than Martinez. While he has a good hard hit rate (35.5 percent) and a decent home run to fly ball ratio (18.5 percent), he also hits the ball on the ground too much for my liking (44.7 percent) and he tends to be a pull hitter (45.1 percent). The word is out and opposing pitchers are going to try to expose these weaknesses, such as throwing more breaking pitches; he only has a .151 batting average against sliders with a 30 percent strikeout rate. The last month of the season, he hit .250/.314/.315 with 0 home runs in 118 plate appearances after coming off a monstrous August in which he hit .347/.405/.654 with 9 home runs in 111 plate appearances. That’s not to say he cannot overcome these weaknesses. He is still young and only time will tell if he has a career more like Boesch or J.D. But how will he do in 2024? There is still a lot of uncertainty with Carpenter and it could go either way, so here’s hoping he goes in the right direction. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 466 AB | .255/.318/.447 | 21 HR | 71 RBI | 4 SB | 37 BB | 127 K ZiPS DC – 473 AB | .256/.315/.439 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 4 SB | 33 BB | 122 K THE BAT X – 483 AB | .253/.318/.439 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 6 SB | 40 BB | 129 K ATC – 485 AB | .258/.320/.456 | 23 HR | 73 RBI | 5 SB | 38 BB | 131 K FGDC – 471 AB | .256/.316/.443 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 4 SB | 35 BB | 125 K RotoChamp – 480 AB | .256/.324/.448 | 21 HR | 71 RBI | 5 SB | 37 BB | 128 K CBS Sports – 478 AB | .289/.356/.487 | 22 HR | 72 RBI | 9 SB | 39 BB | 127 K ESPN – 497 AB | .266/.333/.463 | 23 HR | 68 RBI | 6 SB | 41 BB | 138 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 418 AB | .278/.340/.471 | 20 HR | 64 RBI | 6 SB | 32 BB | 115 K 2024 Prediction – 473 AB | .262/.330/.467 | 24 HR | 68 RBI | 7 SB | 39 BB | 118 K I worry about this guy turning into a pumpkin, so if he ends up with your prediction, I'd be thrilled. Frankly, though, since he projects as the #1 DH on a team that's committed to rotating guys through that spot, not the least of which will be TORK!, I don't know how he gets enough reps to rack up those kinds of numbers. I would not be surprised to see him end up sub-1 WAR after racking up ~2 last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 On 2/27/2024 at 8:42 AM, bobrob2004 said: Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Greene Another young Tigers’ hitter that broke out last year was Riley Greene, who hit .288/.349/.447 with a 119 wRC+. However, Greene only played in 99 games (416 PA). This is the second year in a row that Greene has missed a significant part of the season due to injury; in 2022 he missed the first part of the season due to a foot injury that he suffered during Spring Training and only played in 93 games (418 PA). In 2023 he missed the month of June due to injury as well as having Tommy John surgery in September on his non-throwing arm (although he is expected to be on the Opening Day roster). Hopefully 2024 is the year that he can get a full season workload in. Just like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene was a former first round draft pick and was the fourth best overall prospect according to Baseball America prior to the 2022 season. So, after having a slightly below average season his rookie year (.253/.321/.362, 96 wRC+), it is no surprise that Greene became one of the Tigers’ better hitters in 2023. Although, one stat that sticks out is his .384 batting average of balls in play (BABIP), which usually indicates a bit of good fortune when it is that high. However, his expected batting average, XBA, was .289 (.288 actual batting average) and his expected wOBA was .365 (.363 actual wOBA). This indicates no luck at all. Regardless, it will be very difficult to repeat a BABIP that high again (especially over a full season workload). One stat I’d like to point out is his vast difference in launch angles: 2022 – 2.8 degrees launch angle | 20.1% LD% | 56.0% GB% | 23.9% FB% | 8.1% HR/FB 2023 – 6.6 degrees launch angle | 26.3% LD% | 48.9% GB% | 24.8% FB% | 16.7% HR/FB Riley Greene is entering his age-23 season, so he is in a good position to improve on his stats after already seeing some success in 2023. It is nice to see that his ground ball rate went from over 50 percent in 2022 to below 50 percent in 2023, due to the difference in launch angles. The more balls that Greene can drive in the air, the more power he will produce, which resulted in more than doubling his home run to fly ball ratio last year. Greene has enough speed to beat out a ground ball (.254 AVG on GB), he also stole seven bases and had four triples in his limited playing time last year. I can easily see his stolen base numbers in the double digits this year, if he can stay healthy. Similarly to Torkelson, Greene also has weaknesses in strikeouts (27.4 percent strikeout rate) and below average defense (-5 DRS in centerfield). However, having Parker Meadows take over in centerfield with Greene moving to one of the corners should help with his defense. Also like Torkelson, Greene now has Major League experience, a bit of Major League success, and youth on his side to overall improve in 2024. Now he just needs to stay healthy. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 573 AB | .273/.343/.438 | 18 HR | 71 RBI | 8 SB | 58 BB | 163 K ZiPS DC – 555 AB | .268/.336/.438 | 19 HR | 69 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 161 K THE BAT X – 520 AB | .265/.340/.432 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 151 K ATC – 524 AB | .267/.343/.433 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 10 SB | 51 BB | 153 K FGDC – 551 AB | .270/.339/.438 | 18 HR | 69 RBI | 8 SB | 55 BB | 158 K RotoChamp – 532 AB | .271/.340/.436 | 17 HR | 66 RBI | 9 SB | 54 BB | 154 K CBS Sports – 494 AB | .298/.362/.488 | 18 HR | 60 RBI | 11 SB | 48 BB | 143 K ESPN – 527 AB | .268/.340/.442 | 16 HR | 56 RBI | 9 SB | 56 BB | 152 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 521 AB | .267/.338/.438 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 152 K 2023 Actual – 378 AB | .288/.349/.447 | 11 HR | 37 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 114 K 2024 Prediction – 596 AB | .277/.339/.435 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 172 K I'd be shocked if Riley gets anywhere near 600 ABs, because he would have to start 155 or so games to get there, but if he somehow does, he should end up murdering way more homers than some-teen. That would probably lead to a better walk rate than 8.5%, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 5 Author Share Posted March 5 Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #5 – Kenta Maeda After playing 8 years in Japan, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Kenta Maeda to an 8-year deal in 2016. Immediately, he made an impact in his rookie year, pitching a little over 175 innings in 32 starts with 16 wins, a 3.48 ERA, 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings and finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting. Over the next few years, Maeda would be inconsistent, pitching in and out of the rotation, with his biggest asset being the strikeout with a 9.4, 11.0, and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings during 2017-2019. After the 2019 season, the Dodgers traded him to the Minnesota Twins, in which he had his best season in 2020, with a 2.70 ERA, a league-leading 0.75 WHIP, 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, and finishing third in Cy Young voting. However, 2020 was the COVID-short season, so he only made 11 starts and pitched a little over 66 innings. Small sample sizes should always be taken with a grain of salt. In September 2021, he had Tommy John surgery, so he missed all of the 2022 season. On April 26, 2023, he gave up 10 earned runs in just 3 innings against the New York Yankees. After the game he was placed on the injured list with right triceps strain. After coming off the IL, he finished the season with a 3.36 ERA and 103 strikeouts in a little over 88 innings. The Tigers decided to sign Maeda to a 2-year deal after the 2023 season to help strengthen the rotation after the loss of Eduardo Rodriguez. Now entering his age-36 season, what should we expect from him? He continues to dominate in the strikeout department, having a career 9.9 strikeout per nine innings. His walk rate was pretty high in 2018-2019, around 3.0, but has since gone down to 2.7 in 2021 and 2.4 in 2023. Home runs have consistently been between 1.0-1.5 per nine (and will likely remain down in Comerica Park). Aside from his great 2020 season, he has always been around league average in ERA, with a career ERA+ of 105. His career FIP is 3.74, compared to his ERA of 3.92. It's no surprise to see that his best year, 2020, also showed his best ground ball rate, 49 percent. Since then, it has dropped to 38.4 percent in 2021 and just 32.6 percent in 2023 (one of the lowest in all of baseball). According to Baseball Savant, Maeda threw his split finger the most, 32 percent of the time, and is by far his best pitch with a .182 opponent batting average (so why the low ground ball rate?). By contrast, his sinker was the worst, with a .385 opponent batting average. However, he only threw that pitch 6 percent of the time, so it may be registering as a badly executed split finger. What’s interesting is that in 2021, his slider was the most often used pitch, 37 percent, and fell to 31 percent usage in 2023 (in 2020, he threw it 40 percent of the time). His slider has become less effective, going from a .424 slugging against in 2021 to a .550 slugging against in 2023, with 10 of his 17 home runs given up coming off a slider. Even without factoring in the COVID season and his TJ injury, durability has been a concern for Maeda. His rookie year remains to be the year with his most innings, 175 2/3. It’s probably reasonable to expect at least one IL stint during 2024. Consistency is another concern, with the Dodgers moving him in and out of the rotation not being a good sign. Although, seeing his 2020 season gives some hope in what he can do in a short amount of time. Maeda is at an age where you would expect to see some declining numbers. Also coming off a serious injury like TJ is also a concern. However, he has not shown much of a decline in his overall numbers – yet. If he can hold on to being a league average pitcher a little bit longer, that would be great. But sooner or later, the bottom is going to fall off. Hopefully it comes later. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 144 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.09 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 147 K | 41 BB ZiPS DC – 125 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.51 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 117 K | 41 BB THE BAT – 130 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.37 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 129 K | 43 BB ATC – 130 IP | 8-8 W/L | 4.21 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 134 K | 37 BB FGDC – 135 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.29 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 132 K | 41 BB RotoChamp – 132 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.30 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 131 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – 154 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.74 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 164 K | 45 BB ESPN – 156 IP | 8 W | 4.04 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 175 K | 43 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 104 1/3 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.23 ERA | 1.169 WHIP | 117 K | 28 BB 2024 Prediction – 134 2/3 IP | 9-7 W/L | 4.11 ERA | 1.132 WHIP | 149 K | 37 BB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 That looks about right for Maeda. Maybe the Fetter team will figuring out a way to unlock a little more swing-and-miss in the guy, but I do hope they can add a little movement to his offerings which results in less hard contact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roarintiger1 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Carpenter reminds me of Jim Northrup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 The Grey Fox was better and was a solid defender. Comment from the old guy 😃 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 8 hours ago, SoCalTiger said: The Grey Fox was better and was a solid defender. Comment from the old guy 😃 Carpy can't improve his defense? I don't agree with that. I think it did improve during the season last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 8 hours ago, SoCalTiger said: The Grey Fox was better and was a solid defender. Comment from the old guy 😃 Interesting comp, but I believe you are right. Northrup was a solid defender at all three outfield positions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 36 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Interesting comp, but I believe you are right. Northrup was a solid defender at all three outfield positions. stat of the day from reviewing Northrups BR page: In 1968 a 770 OPS was good for a 129 OPS+ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #6 – Ednel Javier Baez The Tigers signed Javier Baez before the 2021 season. In his two seasons in Detroit, Baez has hit .230/.273/.361 with 26 home runs and a 77 OPS+ in 1,137 plate appearances. His 62 OPS+ last year was the 2nd worst in all of baseball among qualified players; only Tim Anderson’s 60 OPS+ was worse. To say that Baez has been a disappointment is an understatement. And the Tigers still owe him $98 million over the next four years. Javier Baez hasn’t always been this terrible of a hitter. He was an All-Star for the Chicago Cubs in 2018-2019, hitting a combined .286/.321/.544 with 63 home runs and a 122 OPS+ in 1,206 plate appearances. After being traded to the New York Mets at the 2021 Trade Deadline, he hit .299/.371/.515 with a 140 OPS+ in 186 plate appearances. So, what happened? And more importantly, will he be able to get back to this production (or at least a league average hitter)? A couple of stats that stand out is his hard-hit rates and barrel percentages, according to Baseball Savant: 2018 – 43.3% Hard Hit % | 12.6% Barrel % 2019 – 43.6% Hard Hit % | 12.7% Barrel % 2020 – 40.3% Hard Hit % | 8.1% Barrel % 2021 – 45.2% Hard Hit % | 13.4% Barrel % ---------------------------------------------------------- 2022 – 38.0% Hard Hit % | 8.0% Barrel % 2023 – 39.7% Hard Hit % | 5.2% Barrel % There’s a noticeable drop-off in both of these stats since joining the Tigers. He just finished his age-30 season last year, but it feels more like it was his age-40 season. This drop-off usually doesn’t happen to someone who is supposed to still be in his prime years. On a more positive note, his strikeout rate has improved since his Cubs days, but his walk rate has been consistently below-average. As far as power goes, Baez topped off at 34 home runs in 2018 and he hit as much as 31 in 2021. Obviously, his power has diminished since, falling to just 7.3 percent home run to fly ball ratio last year, even though his overall batted ball rates have been mostly consistent (about 50 percent ground balls and 32-34 percent fly balls). 2018 – 25.9% K% | 4.5% BB% | 24.3% HR/FB% 2019 – 27.8% K% | 5.0% BB% | 24.45% HR/FB% 2020 – 31.9% K% | 3.0% BB% | 17.0% HR/FB% 2021 – 33.6% K% | 5.1% BB% | 28.2% HR/FB% --------------------------------------------------------------- 2022 – 24.9% K% | 4.4% BB% | 12.3% HR/FB% 2023 – 22.9% K% | 4.4% BB% | 7.3% HR/FB% Javier Baez claims that he was dealing with injuries over the last two seasons, which is why his performance has been so awful. He also claims that with his new training routine this off-season, he is feeling more like his old self (and all without surgery!), giving us our first, “best shape of his life” Spring Training story. Whether or not this translates to better stats has yet to be seen, but I guess there’s hope. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 496 AB | .241/.288/.397 | 16 HR | 62 RBI | 9 SB | 26 BB | 135 K ZiPS DC – 524 AB | .236/.280/.377 | 15 HR | 65 RBI | 11 SB | 25 BB | 143 K THE BAT X – 499 AB | .248/.293/.394 | 14 HR | 59 RBI | 14 SB | 27 BB | 129 K ATC – 502 AB | .241/.287/.386 | 14 HR | 61 RBI | 11 SB | 25 BB | 134 K FGDC – 520 AB | .238/.284/.387 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 10 SB | 26 BB | 142 K RotoChamp – 507 AB | .241/.287/.387 | 15 HR | 11 SB | 26 BB | 136 K CBS Sports – 490 AB | .249/.299/.398 | 14 HR | 11 SB | 25 BB | 122 K ESPN – 509 AB | .234/.279/.371 | 14 HR | 13 SB | 24 BB | 135 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 544 AB | .265/.304/.449 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 10 SB | 26 BB | 162 K 2023 Actual – 510 AB | .222/.267/.325 | 9 HR | 59 RBI | 12 SB | 24 BB | 125 K 2024 Prediction – 527 AB | .235/.282/.372 | 14 HR | 63 RBI | 12 SB | 26 BB | 136 K 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #7 – Jack Rafe Flaherty The St. Louis Cardinals drafted Jack Flaherty in the first round of the 2014 draft as a compensatory pick for losing Carlos Beltran as a free agent. He was ranked the #53 overall prospect prior to the 2018 season, after briefly pitching in the Majors Leagues in 2017. He had his first full season in 2018, in which he pitched 151 innings with a 3.34 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 182 strikeouts and finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting. In 2019, as a 23-year-old, he improved even further with a 2.75 ERA and 231 strikeouts in a little over 196 innings and finishing 4th in Cy Young voting. In 2020, Flaherty only started 9 games due to the COVID-shorted season with a 4.91 ERA. In 2021, he bounced back to a 3.22 ERA but only pitched in a little over 78 innings due to injuries. In 2022, still dealing with injuries, he had a 4.25 ERA in only 36 innings of work. In 2023, he finally was able to avoid any major injuries, pitching a little over 144 innings for both the Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles, but struggled with a 4.99 ERA (6.75 ERA with the Orioles), but still managed 9.23 strikeouts per nine. The Tigers signed him to a 1-year deal for starting pitching depth during the off-season. Will he be able to get back to full health and being effective for the Tigers? During his breakout season of 2019, Flaherty had a 10.59 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.52 walks per nine innings, and 1.15 home runs per nine innings for an FIP of 3.46, which was higher than his 2.75 ERA, indicating there might have been some luck in an overall great season. For his career, his stats are 10.08 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9. His overall 3.75 ERA and 4.01 FIP could just mean he naturally outpaces his FIP (despite having a 4.99 ERA and a 4.36 FIP last year). Interestingly, his ground ball rate was only 39.5 percent in 2019, one of the lowest rates of his career, compared to 42.7 percent last year and 41.4 percent overall. I really like a high ground ball rate for a pitcher as it can limit the damage. Flare throws a 4-seam fastball, slider, knuckle curve, cutter, changeup, and sinker (is that too many pitches?), with the slider being the most problematic last year: 2019 – 27.6% Usage | .184 BAA | .324 SLG Against | 45.2% Whiff% | 19% Hard Hit% 2020 – 28.7% Usage | .176 BAA | .314 SLG Against | 49.5% Whiff% | 23.3% Hard Hit% 2021 – 28.3% Usage | .215 BAA | .366 SLG Against | 40.5% Whiff% | 36.5% Hard Hit% 2022 – 25.1% Usage | .214 BAA | .286 SLG Against | 35.4% Whiff% | 34.4% Hard Hit% 2023 - 24.6% Usage | .339 BAA | .558 SLG Against | 26.5% Whiff% | 43.6% Hard Hit% Jack Flaherty’s Run Value for the slider went from a positive 11 in 2019 to a negative 5 in 2023. Another dramatic change in Run Value was his 4-seam fastball, going from a positive 22 in 2019 to a negative 5 in 2023, despite no loss in velocity (about 93 MPH both years). Spin rate and movement on his fastball has noticeably gotten worse the last few years: 2020 – 85% Active Spin% | 15.7 inches in total movement 2021 – 79% Active Spin% | 15.4 inches in total movement 2022 – 73% Active Spin% | 13.8 inches in total movement 2023 – 72% Active Spin% | 13.1 inches in total movement Data before 2020 isn’t available for these stats. Is it possible for these stats to improve in 2024? Flaherty is still only entering his age-28 season, so a natural age decline shouldn’t be happening just yet, considering he is fully healthy. Comerica is a pitcher-friendly park, and he’ll be working with pitching coach Chris Fetter, who in my opinion is one of the better pitching coaches in baseball. Everything looks good for a bounce back season, even if he can’t reach 2019 levels again. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 155 IP | 9-10 W/L | 4.40 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 149 K | 62 BB ZiPS DC – 127 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.54 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 148 K | 66 BB THE BAT – 143 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.64 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 137 K | 61 BB ATC – 137 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.49 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 134 K | 57 BB FGDC – 153 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.46 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 149 K | 64 BB RotoChamp – 144 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 140 K | 61 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 144 IP | 7 W | 4.25 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 149 K | 68 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 144 1/3 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.99 ERA | 1.580 WHIP | 148 K | 66 BB 2024 Prediction – 154 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.27 ERA | 1.422 WHIP | 154 K | 67 BB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobrob2004 Posted March 11 Author Share Posted March 11 Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #8 – Parker Meadows Parker Meadows was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2018 Draft and made his Major League debut in August last year, playing in 37 games with a .232/.331/.368 slash line with three home runs and a respectful 94 wRC+ in 145 plate appearances. Because I can, let’s take his small sample size and break it up into even smaller sample sizes: First 49 PA – .302/.388/.465 Next 46 PA – .087/.232/.152 Last 40 PA – .361/.425/.556 Does this really mean anything? No, not really. It just shows the ups and downs of someone trying to adjust at the Major League level. I would guess that we will see streaks like this throughout the 2024 season from Meadows. Now let’s take a look at some of his rate stats the last few years: 2022 (AA) – 489 PA | 10.6% BB% | 18.4% K% | 3.3% HR% | 11.05 HR/FB% 2023 (AAA) – 517 PA | 11.0% BB% | 23.8% K% | 3.7% HR% | 14.1% HR/FB% 2022 (MLB) – 145 PA | 11.7% BB% | 25.5% K% | 2.1% HR% | 8.1% HR/FB% The walk rate looks good and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it over 10 percent again in 2024. Strikeouts are high, but that’s to be expected, especially during the adjustment period in the Majors. As far as the power numbers are concerned, it’s not unusual to see someone develop power as they start to enter their prime years. Meadows is entering his age-24 season, so he’s right there. He topped out at 22 home runs last season between AAA and the MLB. His ISO was .191 in AA and .218 in AAA, indicating what it could potentially be in the Majors. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him regularly hit over 20 home runs during his prime years if he can reach his full potential. However, he might have a hard time reaching 20 home runs during 2024 as he continues to adjust. Parker Meadows primarily hit 7th in the batting order in his brief stint with the Tigers last year, although A.J. Hinch has been using him in the leadoff spot during Spring Training. This may allow for more stolen base attempts in 2024. He stole 17 bases in AA in 2022 and 19 in AAA last year before getting called up. His 8 stolen bases for the Tigers, ranked 4th on the team (behind Zach McKinstry, 16; Akil Baddoo, 14; and Javier Baez, 12) despite his limited playing time. I think it’s very likely that he could surpass 20 steals in 2024, especially if he can continue to get on base via the walk. I think Parker Meadows is an All-Star in the making, but it’ll take few years to get to his full potential. 2024 is going to have its ups and downs, but I expect an overall solid season, with overall league average numbers, which I think most Tiger fans will be happy with, especially with his above-average defense. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 498 AB | .234/.309/.390 | 15 HR | 52 RBI | 13 SB | 51 BB | 132 K ZiPS DC – 536 AB | .228/.294/.373 | 13 HR | 60 RBI | 13 SB | 43 BB | 133 K THE BAT X – 462 AB | .226/.291/.375 | 13 HR | 50 RBI | 12 SB | 40 BB | 129 K ATC – 457 AB | .230/.301/.382 | 13 HR | 49 RBI | 15 SB | 43 BB | 124 K FGDC – 474 AB | .231/.302/.381 | 14 HR | 54 RBI | 13 SB | 46 BB | 129 K RotoChamp – 464 AB | .231/.306/.381 | 13 HR | 52 RBI | 13 SB | 43 BB | 127 K CBS Sports – 475 AB | .253/.325/.411 | 15 HR | 56 RBI | 17 SB | 47 BB | 130 K ESPN – 436 AB | .232/.320/.413 | 12 HR | 44 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 116 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 125 AB | .232/.331/.368 | 3 HR | 13 RBI | 8 SB | 17 BB | 37 K 2024 Prediction – 480 AB | .244/.327/.400 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 21 SB | 56 BB | 139 K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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