Week Fourteen: Green Bay Packers (9-3) @ Detroit Lions (11-1)

[Jason_R]

It is one thing to have the analytics in your favor. It is another thing to be the first one to follow the analytics in a sport where you have a small number of games and a small number of possessions each game. 

It is easy to forget now but the wolves were out for Dan Campbell. Sheila had to give him (and his aggressiveness on 4th down) a vote of confidence. A lot of other owners would have fired him. 

[Jimbo]

When trends are set, defenses will try to adapt.  I think defenses are mindful of the Lions going for it on 4th now even in situations you normally wouldn't go for it.  So I think teams could change defenses to almost think you now have to hold the Lions (and if other teams attempt 4th downs as much as them) to 8/7 yards instead of 9 every 3 downs.  A lot depends on the constant success of the team.  If the Lions win the Superbowl this year, I definitely think defenses will try to adjust.  This could actually benefit the Lions although I think its something teams might already be attempting.  By doing that, you could have more miss tackles. 

 

I think Campbell is starting to get more credit for his strategy.   Cardinal has looked at different scenarios and I agree with his analysis.  I am not sure if he goes for it if the defense wasn't dealing with so many injuries.  I think there could of been a lot of confusion with the defense they would of had to put out there (not a lot of time to practice that scenario with those players).  It also looked like the defense was gassed.  Smith kept on having to come out and he looked beat up.

[RandyMarsh]

I feel like defenses have already adjusted a bit on 2nd and 3rd downs atleast going by memory and "feelings". Like it feels like we aren't getting as many easy first down runs on 2nd and 3rd and long as we did before.

Seems like teams realize that 2nd and 10+ and say 3rd and 6/7 could still be running downs for the Lions and have adjusted, unfortunately for them the Lions are so good offensively it still isn't easy to stop.