The 119th United States Congress

[pfife]

It appears Texas literally does not, in fact, know how to pick em.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

also notable that the Dem senate primary had 165K more votes cast than the GOP side even given how high profile the Paxton/Cornyn race is. Still, we're talking 4 million total votes cast. In the last off year Tx senate race (Cruz/ORouke), 8 million votes were cast so still not any kind of slam dunk indicator for the general. If you do want to be optimistic, Cruz only won that race by 215K votes. If Cornyn loses, the GOP will not be running as an incumbent.

On that score, I don't know enough about Hunt to know who his voters are.  Cornyn ended up outpolling Paxton slighty, but probably whichever picks up most of Hunts voters is going to win. I think Hunt has tried to position himself closer to Trump than Cornyn, so maybe his votes go to Paxton.

Edited 4 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

also notable that more the Dem senate primary had 165K more votes cast than the GOP side even given how high profile the Toth/Cornyn race is. Still, we're talking 2 million total votes cast. In the last off year Tx senate race (Cruz/ORouke), 8 million votes were cast so still not any kind of slam dunk indicator for the general. If you do want to be optimistic, Cruz only won that race by 215K votes. If Cornyn loses, the GOP will not be running as an incumbent.

On that score, I don't know enough about Hunt to know who his voters are.  Cornyn ended up outpolling Paxton slighty, but probably whichever picks up most of Hunts voters is going to win. I think Hunt has tried to position himself closer to Trump than Cornyn, so maybe his votes go to Paxton.

Whoever wins, it’s going to be a public brawl for the next three months while Talarico can focus on the general. Republicans money is also going to be split in Texas. 

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Whoever wins, it’s going to be a public brawl for the next three months while Talarico can focus on the general. Republicans money is also going to be split in Texas. 

corrections above - I was looking at another race and typed Toth in instead of Paxton - oops.

[pfife]

Paxton cornyn is gonna be a beautiful ****show, theyre both gonna go nuclear and im totally here for it

[Tigeraholic1]

 

 

[gehringer_2]

31 minutes ago, pfife said:

Paxton cornyn is gonna be a beautiful ****show, theyre both gonna go nuclear and im totally here for it

Runoff is May 26, which will still leave a lot of time for things to settle down on the GOP side before Nov. People automatically assume it's a negative for the GOP, but depending on how the campaign goes that's a lot of free exposure that the eventual GOP candidate is going to get while Talarico has to buy any exposure he gets. The Dems hope Paxton and Cornyn mortally wound one another, which is possible but not a given.

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

25 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Runoff is May 26, which will still leave a lot of time for things to settle down on the GOP side before Nov. People automatically assume it's a negative for the GOP, but depending on how the campaign goes that's a lot of free exposure that the eventual GOP candidate is going to get while Talarico has to buy any exposure he gets. The Dems hope Paxton and Cornyn mortally wound one another, which is possible but not a given.

It’s not free exposure. Republicans are going to have to pour in money on a primary while Talarico is already working in the general. 

[Tigerbomb13]

57 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

 

 

Or just maybe they will be more focused on things that are directly affecting them like affordability, instead of this dumb culture war ****. 

[Motown Bombers]

Nobody obsesses about other people's genitalia more than Naziholic. 

[Tigerbomb13]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Nobody obsesses about other people's genitalia more than Naziholic. 

It’s really weird 

[romad1]

14 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I had a moment I had to apologize for at work today.  I said "I guess Crenshaw will be looking for work, which will be slightly harder since he's missing an eye."   

That's a bit rough.  

[gehringer_2]

49 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It’s not free exposure. Republicans are going to have to pour in money on a primary while Talarico is already working in the general. 

sure, and you hope GOP donors have donor fatigue by the general, and they might. 

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I had a moment I had to apologize for at work today.  I said "I guess Crenshaw will be looking for work, which will be slightly harder since he's missing an eye."   

That's a bit rough.  

Seeing as how he’s a public figure who has traded on his disability, I’ll allow it. 

[gehringer_2]

58 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It’s not free exposure. Republicans are going to have to pour in money on a primary while Talarico is already working in the general. 

Paxton/Cornyn is an interesting general election challenge for the Dems. As a candidate, Paxton has anti DC status quo value and the energy of the true believer right wing. OTOH, the Dems have the chance to peel away more moderate voters or those just turned off by Paxton's grifting. I have to think Paxton would be easier to beat, but it's Tx.

[CMRivdogs]

JV Last had a good piece today talking about Talarico. Basically getting into Talarico's "WWoke Christianity" vs MAGA's Christian Nationalism. It will be interesting to see how this will eventually play out. Especially in Texas

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/the-lessons-of-james-talarico-and-woke-jesus?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

JV Last had a good piece today talking about Talarico. Basically getting into Talarico's "WWoke Christianity" vs MAGA's Christian Nationalism. It will be interesting to see how this will eventually play out. Especially in Texas

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/the-lessons-of-james-talarico-and-woke-jesus?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

I'm pessimistic that Christian nationalists will be swayed by any appeal to the Sermon on the Mount Jesus. Most people will gladly cede their moral freedom to any institution that will offer them God's blessing for doing what they want to do anyway.

Not too long ago I came across a John Guilgud video dramatization of a story told inside Dostoevsky's "The Brothers Karamazov" It's a scene that brother Ivan is describing to his younger brother that expresses his view of "The Church".  It's couched as being a dream he had about about the Inquisition so the author could get a way with telling it in Orthodox Russia, but at its heart it can too accurately describe the relationship between any highly institutionalized religious organization and its followers. And the Evangelical church in the US is definitely institutionalized - esp in the South. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxhvTAevdU8

 

Edited 55 minutes ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

The Democrats literally have a reverend in the senate. Talarico can appeal to suburban housewives and religious Latinos. He’s not going to peel away Christian nationalists. He needs to build the Beto coalition, which he did, and pick up a few more suburban whites. 

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The Democrats literally have a reverend in the senate. Talarico can appeal to suburban housewives and religious Latinos. He’s not going to peel away Christian nationalists. He needs to build the Beto coalition, which he did, and pick up a few more suburban whites. 

Comparing with 2018, if Cornyn gets by the primary he's probably a stronger general candidate than Ted Cruz was, Paxton maybe about equal. We'll see if Talarico can be as good or better than O'Rouke was.

Edited 54 minutes ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Comparing with 2018, if Cornyn gets by the primary he's probably a stronger general candidate than Ted Cruz was, Paxton maybe about equal. We'll see if Talarico can be as good or better than O'Rouke was.

That was 8 years ago and before COVID. Since then, the Texas suburbs have expanded rapidly. It’s the type of growth that put Georgia in play. People forget Texas has the same racial makeup as California. The environment also seems to be more Dem friendly than 2018. 2018 was the first time in decades a Democrat seriously challenged for a statewide race. 

[CMRivdogs]

Trump will endorsing end up Cornyn. He already has him in his pocket. Paxton is probably there as well, but Cornyn is a safer choice for TACO

[oblong]

I'm not falling for TX is going blue

[Motown Bombers]

It’s worth challenging. Georgia was red until it wasn’t. 

[CMRivdogs]

41 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm pessimistic that Christian nationalists will be swayed by any appeal to the Sermon on the Mount Jesus. Most people will gladly cede their moral freedom to any institution that will offer them God's blessing for doing what they want to do anyway.

Not too long ago I came across a John Guilgud video dramatization of a story told inside Dostoevsky's "The Brothers Karamazov" It's a scene that brother Ivan is describing to his younger brother that expresses his view of "The Church".  It's couched as being a dream he had about about the Inquisition so the author could get a way with telling it in Orthodox Russia, but at its heart it can too accurately describe the relationship between any highly institutionalized religious organization and its followers. And the Evangelical church in the US is definitely institutionalized - esp in the South. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxhvTAevdU8

 

Great performance by Guilgud. 

[romad1]

1 minute ago, oblong said:

I'm not falling for TX is going blue

I'm willing to if Paxton wins the primary.