Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[Tiger337]

34 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Flaherty averaged 0.67 runs in in the games Tigers won

Olson 1.17

I wouldn't have guessed it was quite that low across the board though, so it was an interesting observation on your part.  

The Tigers scored 4.5 runs in all of Skubal's starts and 6.0 in Mize's starts.  Skubal never gave up more than 4 runs in any of the losses, so he likely would have won more games with more run support.  

ER allowed per game in Mize's losses 3.2. 2.0 in Skubal's losses.  

 

Olson got 4.5 runs of support per game.  He also allowed just 2.4 ER per game in his losses.  So, he seems to have been unlucky compared to Mize.  

[Sports_Freak]

10 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Flaherty averaged 0.67 runs in in the games Tigers won

Olson 1.17

I wouldn't have guessed it was quite that low across the board though, so it was an interesting observation on your part.  

The Tigers scored 4.5 runs in all of Skubal's starts and 6.0 in Mize's starts.  Skubal never gave up more than 4 runs in any of the losses, so he likely would have won more games with more run support.  

ER allowed per game in Mize's losses 3.2. 2.0 in Skubal's losses.  

 

Very good post. What would be interesting would be to see how many runs the bullpen gave up when they took over for these guys. Starting pitchers that only go 5 or 6 innings really put stress on a bullpen. Especially if it's a few starters in a row. Thats something else people overlook about Skubal, he allows the bullpen to rest in many of his starts. He would be extremely hard to replace.

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Very good post. What would be interesting would be to see how many runs the bullpen gave up when they took over for these guys. Starting pitchers that only go 5 or 6 innings really put stress on a bullpen. Especially if it's a few starters in a row. Thats something else people overlook about Skubal, he allows the bullpen to rest in many of his starts. He would be extremely hard to replace.

There is no doubt that innings pitched for starters has become an important stat.  

[Sports_Freak]

8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

There is no doubt that innings pitched for starters has become an important stat.  

Its almost like a team can get by with having average or just below average starting pitchers if they have a bullpen that is totally shutdown. It just seems like so many games are decided by bullpens. But a team still needs at least one, maybe two, starters who can go deeper into games. And I still say the inherited runner scored is an often overlooked stat for relief pitchers. Forget won and lost records, show me the inherited runs allowed stat.

[Sports_Freak]

21 hours ago, Stormin said:

The media likes to point point out that the Tigers were 21-10 in games that Skubal pitched and a .500 team without Skubal. The Tigers were 18-10 in games that Mize pitched.

If the Tigers aren't going to retain Skubal, it may benefit them to lock up Mize. Losing 3 of our top starting pitchers in '27 could easily lead to a 100 loss season.

[buddha]

15 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Mize is a good #4 starter. In the playoffs you ideally want your 1, 2 maybe 3 starters getting most innings. Olson got hurt and Flaherty was struggling forcing Mize into a role he shouldn't have been in. 

the #1 overall pick in the draft turns out to be an ok #4 depth starter.  Not ideal.

that could easily be jackson jobe soon too.  pitchers are fragile.

[Tiger337]

14 hours ago, buddha said:

the #1 overall pick in the draft turns out to be an ok #4 depth starter.  Not ideal.

that could easily be jackson jobe soon too.  pitchers are fragile.

Better than Matt Anderson.  

[Tenacious D]

14 hours ago, buddha said:

the #1 overall pick in the draft turns out to be an ok #4 depth starter.  Not ideal.

that could easily be jackson jobe soon too.  pitchers are fragile.

He was a deserving All-Star based on his first half.  Still think he can be a solid #3, with #2 upside.  Just needs to stay healthy for an entire season.

[Stormin]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

He was a deserving All-Star based on his first half.  Still think he can be a solid #3, with #2 upside.  Just needs to stay healthy for an entire season.

The Tigers have several  pitchers with a top half of the rotation ceiling (Flaherty was a good #2 in 2024,  Olson if he can stay healthy,  Mize's fastball is actually up a tick since TJ - but he faded in 2025,  Melton has good stuff, Jobe has good stuff).  I agree that health will be a big factor.  Their performance will probably oscillate year to year.  It will be fun to watch them and see how their performances align.   Dan Petry was only a strong #2 for a couple years, but one of those years was 1984 (4.2fWAR).   Milt Wilcox had his best year in 1984 (3.6 fWAR).  

I don't think it is being overly optimistic to say that Mize, Olson, Jobe, and Melton likely have not played their best season.

Edited 15 hours ago by Stormin

[papalawrence]

1 hour ago, Stormin said:

The Tigers have several  pitchers with a top half of the rotation ceiling (Flaherty was a good #2 in 2024,  Olson if he can stay healthy,  Mize's fastball is actually up a tick since TJ - but he faded in 2025,  Melton has good stuff, Jobe has good stuff).  I agree that health will be a big factor.  Their performance will probably oscillate year to year.  It will be fun to watch them and see how their performances align.   Dan Petry was only a strong #2 for a couple years, but one of those years was 1984 (4.2fWAR).   Milt Wilcox had his best year in 1984 (3.6 fWAR).  

I don't think it is being overly optimistic to say that Mize, Olson, Jobe, and Melton likely have not played their best season.

I always appreciate a good Milt Wilcox reference

[Tigermojo]

Clark is the top CF prospect. McGonigle is the second best SS prospect. The future is looking bright. Will they make up for Tork and Mize?

[tiger2022]

8 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Clark is the top CF prospect. McGonigle is the second best SS prospect. The future is looking bright. Will they make up for Tork and Mize?

The key word= prospect.  They haven't done anything yet.

[ewsieg]

2 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Clark is the top CF prospect. McGonigle is the second best SS prospect. The future is looking bright. Will they make up for Tork and Mize?

Kind of crazy that this part is true when the guy ahead of McGonigle is 19 at already 6'4".