Tiger337 Posted January 21 Posted January 21 34 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Flaherty averaged 0.67 runs in in the games Tigers won Olson 1.17 I wouldn't have guessed it was quite that low across the board though, so it was an interesting observation on your part. The Tigers scored 4.5 runs in all of Skubal's starts and 6.0 in Mize's starts. Skubal never gave up more than 4 runs in any of the losses, so he likely would have won more games with more run support. ER allowed per game in Mize's losses 3.2. 2.0 in Skubal's losses. Olson got 4.5 runs of support per game. He also allowed just 2.4 ER per game in his losses. So, he seems to have been unlucky compared to Mize. Quote
Sports_Freak Posted January 22 Posted January 22 10 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Flaherty averaged 0.67 runs in in the games Tigers won Olson 1.17 I wouldn't have guessed it was quite that low across the board though, so it was an interesting observation on your part. The Tigers scored 4.5 runs in all of Skubal's starts and 6.0 in Mize's starts. Skubal never gave up more than 4 runs in any of the losses, so he likely would have won more games with more run support. ER allowed per game in Mize's losses 3.2. 2.0 in Skubal's losses. Very good post. What would be interesting would be to see how many runs the bullpen gave up when they took over for these guys. Starting pitchers that only go 5 or 6 innings really put stress on a bullpen. Especially if it's a few starters in a row. Thats something else people overlook about Skubal, he allows the bullpen to rest in many of his starts. He would be extremely hard to replace. Quote
Tiger337 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: Very good post. What would be interesting would be to see how many runs the bullpen gave up when they took over for these guys. Starting pitchers that only go 5 or 6 innings really put stress on a bullpen. Especially if it's a few starters in a row. Thats something else people overlook about Skubal, he allows the bullpen to rest in many of his starts. He would be extremely hard to replace. There is no doubt that innings pitched for starters has become an important stat. Quote
Sports_Freak Posted January 22 Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: There is no doubt that innings pitched for starters has become an important stat. Its almost like a team can get by with having average or just below average starting pitchers if they have a bullpen that is totally shutdown. It just seems like so many games are decided by bullpens. But a team still needs at least one, maybe two, starters who can go deeper into games. And I still say the inherited runner scored is an often overlooked stat for relief pitchers. Forget won and lost records, show me the inherited runs allowed stat. Quote
Sports_Freak Posted January 22 Posted January 22 21 hours ago, Stormin said: The media likes to point point out that the Tigers were 21-10 in games that Skubal pitched and a .500 team without Skubal. The Tigers were 18-10 in games that Mize pitched. If the Tigers aren't going to retain Skubal, it may benefit them to lock up Mize. Losing 3 of our top starting pitchers in '27 could easily lead to a 100 loss season. Quote
buddha Posted January 22 Posted January 22 15 hours ago, Tigermojo said: Mize is a good #4 starter. In the playoffs you ideally want your 1, 2 maybe 3 starters getting most innings. Olson got hurt and Flaherty was struggling forcing Mize into a role he shouldn't have been in. the #1 overall pick in the draft turns out to be an ok #4 depth starter. Not ideal. that could easily be jackson jobe soon too. pitchers are fragile. Quote
Tiger337 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 14 hours ago, buddha said: the #1 overall pick in the draft turns out to be an ok #4 depth starter. Not ideal. that could easily be jackson jobe soon too. pitchers are fragile. Better than Matt Anderson. Quote
Tenacious D Posted January 22 Posted January 22 14 hours ago, buddha said: the #1 overall pick in the draft turns out to be an ok #4 depth starter. Not ideal. that could easily be jackson jobe soon too. pitchers are fragile. He was a deserving All-Star based on his first half. Still think he can be a solid #3, with #2 upside. Just needs to stay healthy for an entire season. Quote
Stormin Posted January 22 Posted January 22 (edited) 1 hour ago, Tenacious D said: He was a deserving All-Star based on his first half. Still think he can be a solid #3, with #2 upside. Just needs to stay healthy for an entire season. The Tigers have several pitchers with a top half of the rotation ceiling (Flaherty was a good #2 in 2024, Olson if he can stay healthy, Mize's fastball is actually up a tick since TJ - but he faded in 2025, Melton has good stuff, Jobe has good stuff). I agree that health will be a big factor. Their performance will probably oscillate year to year. It will be fun to watch them and see how their performances align. Dan Petry was only a strong #2 for a couple years, but one of those years was 1984 (4.2fWAR). Milt Wilcox had his best year in 1984 (3.6 fWAR). I don't think it is being overly optimistic to say that Mize, Olson, Jobe, and Melton likely have not played their best season. Edited January 22 by Stormin Quote
papalawrence Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Stormin said: The Tigers have several pitchers with a top half of the rotation ceiling (Flaherty was a good #2 in 2024, Olson if he can stay healthy, Mize's fastball is actually up a tick since TJ - but he faded in 2025, Melton has good stuff, Jobe has good stuff). I agree that health will be a big factor. Their performance will probably oscillate year to year. It will be fun to watch them and see how their performances align. Dan Petry was only a strong #2 for a couple years, but one of those years was 1984 (4.2fWAR). Milt Wilcox had his best year in 1984 (3.6 fWAR). I don't think it is being overly optimistic to say that Mize, Olson, Jobe, and Melton likely have not played their best season. I always appreciate a good Milt Wilcox reference Quote
Tigermojo Posted January 22 Posted January 22 Clark is the top CF prospect. McGonigle is the second best SS prospect. The future is looking bright. Will they make up for Tork and Mize? Quote
tiger2022 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Tigermojo said: Clark is the top CF prospect. McGonigle is the second best SS prospect. The future is looking bright. Will they make up for Tork and Mize? The key word= prospect. They haven't done anything yet. Quote
ewsieg Posted January 23 Posted January 23 2 hours ago, Tigermojo said: Clark is the top CF prospect. McGonigle is the second best SS prospect. The future is looking bright. Will they make up for Tork and Mize? Kind of crazy that this part is true when the guy ahead of McGonigle is 19 at already 6'4". 1 Quote
LongLiveMaroth Posted Monday at 01:35 PM Posted Monday at 01:35 PM Tigers with 5 top 100 prospects for the Athletic: McGonigle Clark Rainer Briceno Anderson 1 Quote
TJ Rollercoaster Posted Wednesday at 03:46 AM Posted Wednesday at 03:46 AM From https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/article/yesavage-one-of-four-blue-jays-in-top-100-mlb-prospects-for-2026-n1-47684202/ (no paywall - assuming that this is from the same article that LongLiveMaroth mentioned above) 2. Kevin McGonigle, SS, Detroit Tigers Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right Hit: 50/60 Game Power: 50/60 Raw Power: 60/60 Speed: 50/50 Fielding: 40/45 Throwing: 50/50 Reminds me of: Somewhere on the spectrum of Brice Turang to Jose Ramirez Type: Incredible hitter with real baserunning/defensive value You're going to see a lot of blurbs below that mention the historic 2023 MLB draft. We knew the top of the draft (Paul Skenes, Wyatt Langford, Dylan Crews, Max Clark and Walker Jenkins) was one of the best of all time, but I was closely tracking the incredible group of prep position players just behind that, assuming there'd be a few stars. Instead, almost every single one of those candidates who went in the first couple of rounds have been arrow-up players since the draft, led by McGonigle. He is one of my prouder predraft "the industry isn't appreciating this guy enough" calls, ranking him 21st before he went 37th and received the 31st-highest bonus in the draft. Since then, McGonigle has exceeded all of my wildest expectations. My predraft case was that he was a plus hitter with average power, a strong approach and average speed who was a better defender than people gave him credit for, because at 5-foot-10 with average physical tools, he wasn't an NFL combine-style athlete whom scouts prefer. That's a good to very good every-day second baseman, basically. His speed, defense and arm are still mostly the same as my predraft report, though he has improved enough to be acceptable at shortstop in the big leagues, likely fitting at second base on an every-day basis. McGonigle's career minor league stat line is .308/.410/.512 with 25 homers and 40 stolen bases in 183 games along with almost 39 more walks than strikeouts, all while being young for every level and only playing in the middle infield. I think he'll spend the 2026 season mostly in Triple-A, but it wouldn't surprise me if he bursts through the door to the big leagues to find a spot in that lineup. It isn't crazy to expect a plus batting average, walk rate and power production to all actualize early in his major league career. Quote
TJ Rollercoaster Posted Wednesday at 03:46 AM Posted Wednesday at 03:46 AM 8. Max Clark, CF, Detroit Tigers Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left Hit: 40/60 Game Power: 40/50 Raw Power: 50/55 Speed: 70/70 Fielding: 45/50 Throwing: 55/55 Reminds me of: A little bit of Pete Crow-Armstrong and a little bit of Kenny Lofton, but not quite that kind of defender Type: Well-rounded combination of all five tools and solid feel Walker Jenkins and Clark were seen as the top two players in the loaded 2023 prep class for years in advance, and it's still looking that way after they both went in the top five picks, although some others have risen to join them near the top of that class. Clark is a filled-out 6-footer with plus-plus speed, an above-average arm, plus contact skills, above-average raw power and an excellent approach. Clark is leaning more into his power than some expected at draft time, hitting nine homers in 2024 and 14 last season with a power spike once he reached Double-A. He might post plus OBPs and hit 20 homers annually while stealing 20 to 30 bases and playing a roughly average center field; he has the speed to be above average in the field but hasn't taken that step forward just yet. It wouldn't surprise me if Clark is knocking on the door in September 2026. Quote
TJ Rollercoaster Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM 35. Bryce Rainer, SS, Detroit Tigers Age: 20 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right Type: Lefty-hitting shortstop with 25- to 30-homer upside but a limited track record This is somewhat speculative as Rainer's debut pro season was cut short by shoulder surgery after only 35 career pro games, but he was a consensus top talent early in his high school career and was the 11th pick in the 2024 draft out of a Southern California high school. He's an above-average runner, is likely to stick at shortstop and has a plus arm that was into the mid-90s on the mound in high school. Rainer's selling point offensively is plus to plus-plus raw power projection with his short pro debut already showing above-average exit velos relative to MLB averages. He was productive in line with expectations in that short sample -- 13% walk rate, 5 homers, 9 stolen bases, .831 OPS -- so his performance in 2026 will go a long way to answering the main question here: is his hit tool good enough to get to his power in games and justify this ranking? One prominent example of a mixed summer showcase performance, strong draft spring in high school leading to mixed predraft takes that were answered loudly in pro ball, was Roman Anthony; the Tigers are hoping for an outcome like that. Quote
TJ Rollercoaster Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM 44. Josue Briceno, C, Detroit Tigers Age: 21 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right Type: Potential middle-of-the-order hitter you hope can also catch Briceno's big breakout came in the 2024 Arizona Fall League, when he won MVP and almost posted a 1.400 OPS, helping him to a 127th ranking last winter. He followed up that outburst with a strong 2025, hitting 15 homers in 55 games in High-A with an OPS over 1.000, then hitting five in 45 games at Double-A while still 20 years old. There's no doubt now that Briceno's offensive chops are top tier: he's above average at most contact and approach measures with at least plus raw power along with plus in-game power indicators such as swing plane, barrel rate, pull/lift rates, etc. The question is if he's going to play most of his big league games at catcher or first base. His arm is good enough for a catcher, but his framing and blocking are both below average at the moment. This becomes a problem when the Tigers have to choose, if his bat is ready as soon as the end of the 2026 season, if they want to leave him in the minors to work on his defense or pull the rip cord and have a first baseman and emergency catcher hitting in the middle of their order. Quote
RatkoVarda Posted yesterday at 05:17 PM Posted yesterday at 05:17 PM Keith Law rates them #7 system It’s an extremely top-heavy system, but the Tigers have three of the top 20 prospects in the sport, and I think most GMs would gladly take three prospects of that caliber and a system of nothing else — which isn’t true of the Tigers, I’m just speaking hypothetically — over a system that is much deeper in future big leaguers but doesn’t have those future stars. And if Bryce Rainer comes back healthy and picks up where he left off, it might be three of the top 10 prospects in the sport by Memorial Day. Quote
Arlington Posted 15 hours ago Posted 15 hours ago Keith Law keeps dropping HOF creds into his McGonigle reviews. Forgot exactly what he said last year but it referenced a reasonable chance to see something like 2500 or 3000 hits. This year he threw in a Rogers Hornsby reference. He's hedging the comments, but I'm sure he's looking forward to a told you if he does get inducted into the HOF class of 2051. Quote
Tiger337 Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago 12 hours ago, Arlington said: Keith Law keeps dropping HOF creds into his McGonigle reviews. Forgot exactly what he said last year but it referenced a reasonable chance to see something like 2500 or 3000 hits. This year he threw in a Rogers Hornsby reference. He's hedging the comments, but I'm sure he's looking forward to a told you if he does get inducted into the HOF class of 2051. It's silly to suggest that ANY prospect will get 2500 or 3000 career hits, but it's good to see that the Tigers have a prospect with enough potential that he is being hyped that way. Quote
Shinzaki Posted 2 hours ago Posted 2 hours ago Tiger minor league reporter Emily Waldon announced on X that her cancer has returned. Have been critical of her work...but I hope she is able to beat cancer again Quote
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