Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Arlington]

It used to be that a solid starter would face more batters in a season than a starting position player would get at bat.  Wonder if that has shifted now that pitchers are pulled so much more quickly.

[chasfh]

To be clear, I don't care whether Skubal makes 20 million, or 40 million, or 100 million a year. It's not the money I'm concerned about committing, because it's not my money. It's the years, because they are my years.

I don't believe the hypothesis that teams reinvest money they save from friendly signings on additional star players has ever been borne out by any examples. Or, at least I can't think of any examples. Maybe someone else can?

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, Arlington said:

It used to be that a solid starter would face more batters in a season than a starting position player would get at bat.  Wonder if that has shifted now that pitchers are pulled so much more quickly.

They still do, although to your point, the numbers the league leaders in this category put up have been dropping in the past few decades.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

...  On the other, trading him sends a message that you can't keep the talent you develop...that you can't have nice things...

I think we can have nice things in Detroit.

But it's pick and choose because we can't have EVERYTHING in Detroit.

Harris chose Colt Keith. For example.

I'm just guessing... but I think Skubal/Boras and also Ilitch are going to take this choice out of Harris's hands.

I've been waffling myself on Skubal. Not on the contract... because I think he is absolutely pricing himself out of Detroit. Both AAV AND term (10-ish years). But waffling on keeping him in 2026 and just taking the pick, or getting a haul this offseason.

One the one hand, he's our best chance in 2026.

On the other hand... if some team (Dodgers/ Phillies/ other) makes a crazy offer that makes us both highly competitive in 2026 (maybe not as good without Skubal... but almost as good) AND VERY HIGHLY competitive for the next 5-10 years because Harris is able to EXTRACT such a haul...

I think that outranks 2026 Skubal plus pick.

I think it would be malpractice, if Harris can get such a haul, to NOT trade Skubal.

But I have to be correct and there is just such a haul (or damn close to it) as I outlined above with the Dodgers and the Phillies.

And I'm STILL waffling because I would love to have Skubal in 2026.

But then again...

[tiger2022]

19 minutes ago, chasfh said:

 

I don't believe the hypothesis that teams reinvest money they save from friendly signings on additional star players 

I agree with that.  They usually just cut pay roll and get cheaper players.  A main reason players leave teams like Detroit is because they won't spend money like the top half of the league.  Pizza Boy isn't suddenly going to be throwing out money to people.

They force the players to wear that stupid little Caesars pizza garbage when they hit a home run just to try to get some free publicity.  Tacky and cheap.

[chasfh]

18 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

I agree with that.  They usually just cut pay roll and get cheaper players.  A main reason players leave teams like Detroit is because they won't spend money like the top half of the league.  Pizza Boy isn't suddenly going to be throwing out money to people.

It's thinking along the lines of that which underpins fan support for team salary caps. The belief is that it will level the playing field among teams. Assuming whatever new salary cap is going to be roughly the same as next year's CBT amount, which is $244 million, at least 25 teams are already under that. And even if they set the first team salary cap at something drastically low—say, $150 million per team—the active payrolls of 20 teams are still under that. Most organizations are already hamstringing themselves when it comes to signing top talent. What makes us think these teams are all of a sudden going to spend a lot more once a cap is in place?

Besides, even if by some unrealistic assumption the bottom feeders were to start spending under such a cap system, once the money is capped by team—once the top offers coming from places like Los Angeles and New York and Chicago versus Kansas City and Milwaukee and Pittsburgh are essentially the same—then the difference in money offered becomes less important, and other factors both hard (Which teams are going to win this year?) and soft (Which cities would my wife want to live? Where can I get the most national visibility and build my personal brand?) becomes more important.

And this doesn't even contemplate whether it's fair and equitable that a team that generates way way more revenue, like the Yankees and Dodgers, should be held to the same hard spend caps that the Rays or Marlins are.

Edited July 22 by chasfh

[monkeytargets39]

Team friendly deals only encourage owners to spend more on other players when there is a salary cap like in the NBA.  In baseball it’s moot.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

I agree with that.  They usually just cut pay roll and get cheaper players.  A main reason players leave teams like Detroit is because they won't spend money like the top half of the league.  Pizza Boy isn't suddenly going to be throwing out money to people.

They force the players to wear that stupid little Caesars pizza garbage when they hit a home run just to try to get some free publicity.  Tacky and cheap.

That pizza spear? That was last season. All they do now is hug when they hit home runs.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I think we can have nice things in Detroit.

But it's pick and choose because we can't have EVERYTHING in Detroit.

Harris chose Colt Keith. For example.

I'm just guessing... but I think Skubal/Boras and also Ilitch are going to take this choice out of Harris's hands.

I've been waffling myself on Skubal. Not on the contract... because I think he is absolutely pricing himself out of Detroit. Both AAV AND term (10-ish years). But waffling on keeping him in 2026 and just taking the pick, or getting a haul this offseason.

One the one hand, he's our best chance in 2026.

On the other hand... if some team (Dodgers/ Phillies/ other) makes a crazy offer that makes us both highly competitive in 2026 (maybe not as good without Skubal... but almost as good) AND VERY HIGHLY competitive for the next 5-10 years because Harris is able to EXTRACT such a haul...

I think that outranks 2026 Skubal plus pick.

I think it would be malpractice, if Harris can get such a haul, to NOT trade Skubal.

But I have to be correct and there is just such a haul (or damn close to it) as I outlined above with the Dodgers and the Phillies.

And I'm STILL waffling because I would love to have Skubal in 2026.

But then again...

I trust Harris and company to evaluate and develop any potential prospects in a trade more than Avila. Just look at the Verlander trade. We ended up with a weak hitting backup catcher when all was said and done. Yeah, we saved money from the JV contract (if we didn't cover part or all of it.) But I think Harris would get better players for Skubal. But, IDK, I don't think Skubal will be traded. Just the fan reaction would be too much. After 2026, the Tigers will say they made him a good offer but Boras wanted 10 years at 40m per. There's just NO way!! Offer him 120m for 3 years and let his walk.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

I'm not necessarily saying they'd re-invest the money. I was just saying they could if that money was free.

Hypothetically next year, Skubal and Painter look something like this:

Skubal: 18-7 2.25 ERA/ 1.05 WHIP/ 28 quality Starts

Painter: 12-8 3.00 ERA/ 1.12 WHIP/ 24 Quality Starts

Really worth 40 million diff there? I don't think so. 

But Like I said, if the Phillies offered Painter, Crawford and Abel for Skubal, you do it. Painter has a heck of a shot at being at least 85% of what Skubal is. I'd rather have Painter, Crawford and Abel for the next 10 years than just Skubal. Regardless of the money.

If we let Skubal walk for a draft pick, then I'd be very disappointed in Harris. The smart play is to deal him this off season. ESPECIALLY if we do win the WS this year (And I'm not sure we'll even get there). Sure do hope so though.

 

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

... If we let Skubal walk for a draft pick, then I'd be very disappointed in Harris. The smart play is to deal him this off season. ESPECIALLY if we do win the WS this year...

Skubal wins Cy Young, World Series MVP, and we win the World Series.

Trifecta.

And the Phillies and Dodgers will try to outbid each other to pay exactly the price I outlined...

Errr...

I would hope so.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

Skubal wins Cy Young, World Series MVP, and we win the World Series.

Trifecta.

And the Phillies and Dodgers will try to outbid each other to pay exactly the price I outlined...

Errr...

I would hope so.

What deals would you want? I don't think the Dodgers can match what the Phillies could offer. Their farm system is a lot more barren than it has been in years. (At least until their really young guys start shooting up rankings). I'd literally take Andrew Painter over the top 3 LAD prospects for any player. Painter has a fantastic chance of being 95% of Paul Skenes. Dodgers don't have a lot right now that'd move the needle the way the Phillies can. Maybe, maybe if they built something around Dalton Rushing +. But even then, I like Painter and the PHillies prospects more than the Dodgers...  and it's not even particularly close.

[4hzglory]

1 hour ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I'm not necessarily saying they'd re-invest the money. I was just saying they could if that money was free.

Hypothetically next year, Skubal and Painter look something like this:

Skubal: 18-7 2.25 ERA/ 1.05 WHIP/ 28 quality Starts

Painter: 12-8 3.00 ERA/ 1.12 WHIP/ 24 Quality Starts

Really worth 40 million diff there? I don't think so. 

But Like I said, if the Phillies offered Painter, Crawford and Abel for Skubal, you do it. Painter has a heck of a shot at being at least 85% of what Skubal is. I'd rather have Painter, Crawford and Abel for the next 10 years than just Skubal. Regardless of the money.

If we let Skubal walk for a draft pick, then I'd be very disappointed in Harris. The smart play is to deal him this off season. ESPECIALLY if we do win the WS this year (And I'm not sure we'll even get there). Sure do hope so though.

 

The difference between the best pitcher in baseball in the playoffs and an above average pitcher like Painter would likely be is huge.  If we were the team we had shown through last July and looked multiple years out, Yes, you trade Skubal.  If we are the team we have shown since and are likely in the playoffs in 2025 and 2026, you keep Skubal even if you lose him for only a comp pick after.  The goal is to compete for the World Series and the $ earned by that is worth a whole lot of prospect capital as well.  And with our farm system, it isn't like we are doomed if all we get is a comp pick.  We aren't at all in the Angels situation at last years. deadline (although they earned a lot of $ on Ohtani that isn't factored in either which is why they didn't trade him before the season)

Painter also has a greater shot of being Jack Flaherty - really good sometimes and not at all other times.  Or blowing out his elbow also.  Crawford and Abel also are not locks to be any better than what we have in our system now.  Barring injury, Skubal is a difference maker in 2026 and that is more important to a playoff team than 3 really good players when you already have a team of really good players and a system with depth/stud prospects (who are just that, prospects).  

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Team friendly deals only encourage owners to spend more on other players when there is a salary cap like in the NBA.  In baseball it’s moot.

Isn't that because the NBA has a salary floor?

[Shinzaki]

We can have nice things...but not really nice things?

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

We can have nice things...but not really nice things?

We can have really nice things if that player wants to play for the Detroit Tigers and not follow Boras's advice to hamstring the current and future of our Org beyond means that make sense for the Tigers.

[tiger2022]

14 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

 

Hypothetically next year, Skubal and Painter look something like this:

Skubal: 18-7 2.25 ERA/ 1.05 WHIP/ 28 quality Starts

Painter: 12-8 3.00 ERA/ 1.12 WHIP/ 24 Quality Starts

Really worth 40 million diff there? I don't think so. 

 

 

Why not really unrealistically rate Painter.  He would basically be a top 10 pitcher in the league if he did that.  Not going to happen.  

[Tenacious D]

On 7/22/2025 at 11:07 PM, 1984Echoes said:

We can have really nice things if that player wants to play for the Detroit Tigers and not follow Boras's advice to hamstring the current and future of our Org beyond means that make sense for the Tigers.

I don’t blame either Boras or Skubal. Don’t have to like it, but both are just doing their jobs.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

On 7/23/2025 at 5:05 AM, tiger2022 said:

Why not really unrealistically rate Painter.  He would basically be a top 10 pitcher in the league if he did that.  Not going to happen.  

 

Andrew Painter Baseball Savant (This dude is going to be a friggin STUD imo). If he's healthy going into next year, he'll be a top 10 MLB pitcher. I'd take Painter over anyone in our rotation right now (except Skubal). But if we're going to lose SKubal, I want someone of Painters calibur. 

2025

Video scouting report »

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 65 | Overall: 60

One of the best high school arms in the 2021 Draft class, Painter looked like perhaps the best pitching prospect in the game during his first full season, reaching Double-A in 2022 and earning MLB Pipeline Pitching Prospect of the Year honors. His express train to the big leagues was derailed by an elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery that kept him off a competitive mound for all of 2023 and 2024. His highly anticipated return to action in the Arizona Fall League last year did not disappoint, and there was little rust as the right-hander displayed his elite-level stuff over the course of six outings.

During his time in the Fall League, Painter showed that in many ways he was the same premium prospect with a legitimate four-pitch mix, albeit with a little twist. His plus heater was touching 100 mph again and averaged 97 in the fall with plenty of ride up in the zone, he dropped in his low-80s curve for strikes and his above-average changeup got better as the fall season wore on. The new wrinkle for the 6-foot-7 right-hander was a harder slider with cutter-like action thrown in the upper 80s, replacing what had been more of a sweeper. 

Painter misses bats with all four offerings, and while his fastball command was understandably a bit scattered at times given his long layoff, he continued to astound with his ability to pound the strike zone thanks to a simple and repeatable delivery. Even with all the time away, Painter will be just 22 years old for the 2025 season and ready to pick up where he left off before the injury.