Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[papalawrence]

3 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

Double post

 

Edited October 17 by papalawrence

[Tigermojo]

I would offer Skubal an opt out after 2028. They keep the core team together and he gets to compete with his teammates, protection from injury and a chance at testing the free agent market.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/latest-on-tigers-tarik-skubal.html - Very interesting read for sure.

[papalawrence]

I wonder if Illich/Harris would consider something deferred. Maybe 10/500 with half deferred? If he stays healthy for 5 years he potentially could be an excellent closer on the back half. I think Harris should consider being creative. It would be huge for the Tigers to keep him

[chasfh]

On 10/14/2025 at 2:24 PM, Hongbit said:

They should go 10/$475 and get it done.  Boras would have him sign that this winter. 

The term is irrelevant to me.   I want 6 more seasons of quality Skubal and will happily live through 4 potentially difficult seasons afterwards paying $47M for a guy that is not effective.   Let’s attack the next 5 seasons and not worry about the distant future.  

You'd think the team that would go 9/214 on Prince Fielder and 8/248 on the rotting corpse of Miggy Cabrera could go 10/475 for 30-year-old already-Tommy-Johned Tarik Skubal, wouldn't you?

[theroundsquare]

It's not the same team anymore

[Hongbit]

Someone on 97.1 brought this up yesterday.  

Why not try a Bregman style deal with an overpay but shorter term with player opt outs.  

Maybe something like 6/$288 that’s has player options each of the last 3 years.   He can get paid double of the next closest pitcher and then has control if he gets even better and the market increases after the new CBA.   Boras probably wouldn’t go for it but it was an interesting idea.  

Edited October 17 by Hongbit

[chasfh]

On 10/14/2025 at 11:29 PM, gehringer_2 said:

Cautionary tale. There was a time that the Dodgers had a #1 prospect young outfielder everyone was salivating over. Boston finally pried him loose in return for Mokie Betts. Since the trade, Betts has put up another 32 WAR, Alex Verdugo has produced 8.6 and doesn't seem to have much left at only 29 (Jeter Downs didn't produce any). It's *really* hard to match any young player(s) to a superstar. You just never know ⚠️

The known unknown here is whether Alex Verdugo would have put up closer to Mookie numbers had he stayed in LA. When it comes to production, what organization you're in, and their developmental and deployment philosophies, matter a lot.

[chasfh]

On 10/15/2025 at 11:08 AM, gehringer_2 said:

And I think for Harris the high pick has a lot of appeal because he knows what he wants in a pick and it's probably not what a lot of teams draft for.

Insight of the day.

Well, insight of Wednesday, anyway. But yeah, good one.

[chasfh]

On 10/15/2025 at 2:41 PM, Shinzaki said:

Offer him 5ys at 45 mil per.

If he says no..start listening to offers

Everyone knows Skubal will say no to this—same way everyone knew Correa would say no to Avila's 10/275 offer—so, don't even bother.

[chasfh]

On 10/15/2025 at 2:55 PM, buddha said:

if youre out of it, you trade him.

As much sense as this makes, the risk here is that the Tigers look desperate and take pennies on the dollar for Skubal—classic Avila move. This scenario would really test Harris's negotiation mettle.

[chasfh]

On 10/15/2025 at 8:34 PM, papalawrence said:

Certainly. That's Dombrowski's middle name. He understands that in the long run, the return of an established player(s) will be greater than what typically comes via the prospect package. Doesn't always work out that way, but more often than not, it seems to.

This is true in a micro sense. In a macro sense, the persistent and consistent strategy of trading prospects for established veterans comes back to haunt.

[Tiger337]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The known unknown here is whether Alex Verdugo would have put up closer to Mookie numbers had he stayed in LA. When it comes to production, what organization you're in, and their developmental and deployment philosophies, matter a lot.

Boston doesn't have a reputatilon of not developing hitters though.

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

 

What does Hey Man mean by "gap"? I'm paywalled out of the story.

EDIT: Sorry, I just now caught up to the MLBTR story. I'm not sure how much I would trust Hey Man on this.

Edited October 17 by chasfh

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, GalagaGuy said:

I could see the Tigers offering something like 6@40 and Boras countering with 10@50.   That's the kind of guy he is.  

And it's good that Boras is that kind of guy because that's what Skubal hired him for.

But I don't see the Tigers making the first offer to Boras. And even if we did, I doubt we would waste our time and energy making it only 6/240.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

So I've been thinking about this before chiming in here on the topic. I've gone back and forth in my mind on what to do with Skubal this offseason. There are a couple of factors at play for me. One is how far apart are we on contractual numbers with Skubal and Boras. Two is how badly does Skubal want to test the free agent waters. Three is how aggressive do we plan to be in the offseason.

If we really are $250 million apart from the number he and Scott Boras have in mind, that along with all the previous things we've been hearing about him wanting to test the market, tells me he isn't resigning here. If Harris and Ilitch have a solid idea on him not resigning here and going to free agency, that makes me lean towards wanting him being traded. What would push me over the edge is if we don't have a plan to be aggressive in signing top free agents or making a trade or two for a top player to bolster this roster.

I don't what happened with the Detroit Lions and Suh to happen here with Skubal and the Tigers. All season long and all offseason Lions fans were assured by our GM Martin Mayhew that Suh was going to resign with the organization. So much assurance in-fact that they passed on drafting a generational DT in Aaron Donald in favor of a TE with generationally bad hands and drop problems in Eric Ebron. I really hope Harris and Ilitch have a better gauge on things than Mayhew did with the Lions.

If Skubal isn't signing here and is testing free agency and we don't plan to spend aggressively to improve this roster this offseason, I lean towards trading him. If the organization was willing to go all in next year and do what it takes to make a push towards being a true World Series contender, then I'm ok with keeping him. If an aggressive offseason looks like bringing in Bregman + additional key pieces (another starter, bullpen arm, a secondary right handed bat) then let Skubal stay. I'm ok with taking the risk of losing him for nothing in free agency if we make a World Series push in the offseason and certainly if we actually make the Pennant Championship.

If we keep him, don't have an aggressive offseason, and run back largely the same roster as this year, then I think I'll be concerned and quite possibly pissed. So if I was backed into a corner and forced to make a choice, I'd say trade him if you're just going to run back the same roster and get something for him. Keep him if you are committed to being aggressive and building a World Series contending roster. I feel like I'm copping out with my opinion though.

[oblong]

That article is clickbait.  The $250M gap references different points in time.  That was before last year.  So it's not like the Tigers are sitting here thinking "This is what we think he's worth".  It's what they were starting with before he had his 2024 season.

Skubal is going to become a FA. There's not a shred of doubt in my mind.  He knows his place in negotiation history.

 

[papalawrence]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

That article is clickbait.  The $250M gap references different points in time.  That was before last year.  So it's not like the Tigers are sitting here thinking "This is what we think he's worth".  It's what they were starting with before he had his 2024 season.

Skubal is going to become a FA. There's not a shred of doubt in my mind.  He knows his place in negotiation history.

 

Agree! It's crazy how many times the post has been shared on social media sites. Heyman posted it to get the attention. He knows there is no way Skubal would make an offer now for less than 170 million. The shared post created a bit of a frenzy amongst other mlb fans. A lot of buzz right now.

[romad1]

32 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

Agree! It's crazy how many times the post has been shared on social media sites. Heyman posted it to get the attention. He knows there is no way Skubal would make an offer now for less than 170 million. The shared post created a bit of a frenzy amongst other mlb fans. A lot of buzz right now.

The work this article is doing in the minds of fans of other teams is off the charts.  Boras got his money's worth if he did pay to have that put out. 

[papalawrence]

21 minutes ago, romad1 said:

The work this article is doing in the minds of fans of other teams is off the charts.  Boras got his money's worth if he did pay to have that put out. 

That's a great point. I could see Boras doing that

[Shinzaki]

6 hours ago, chasfh said:

Everyone knows Skubal will say no to this—same way everyone knew Correa would say no to Avila's 10/275 offer—so, don't even bother.

offering to make him the highest paid starting pitcher is pointless?  I have a hard time thinking anyone would offer a 30 year old starter with an injury history and a six or seven inning cap on his starts a ten year deal.  

[Tenacious D]

44 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

offering to make him the highest paid starting pitcher is pointless?  I have a hard time thinking anyone would offer a 30 year old starter with an injury history and a six or seven inning cap on his starts a ten year deal.  

Truth

[monkeytargets39]

You either trade him in the offseason or keep him through next year and let everyone know that’s the plan.  You aren’t getting anything good trying to deal him at the deadline.   If the season starts out badly, every other GM is gonna be circling the waters trying to get Skubal for Pennies on the dollar.

[papalawrence]

New York Mets media and fans are basically talking like he is a Met. Boras has a close relationship with them and he was likely behind Heyman's post. 

Doesn't mean much, the Tigers have control, but this is frustrating as a Tigers fan. 

I do think Boston could make a push, and probably another half dozen teams. 

 

[monkeytargets39]

1 hour ago, papalawrence said:

New York Mets media and fans are basically talking like he is a Met. Boras has a close relationship with them and he was likely behind Heyman's post. 

Doesn't mean much, the Tigers have control, but this is frustrating as a Tigers fan. 

I do think Boston could make a push, and probably another half dozen teams. 

 

You’d think Skubal would want to go to a contender…..