Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[AlaskanTigersFan]

1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

This is where we extremely disagree.  I don’t think keeping Skubal and losing him sets us up for 10 years of baseball purgatory.  Our system is much better than the Angels you keep referencing.  They also had/have their end of career Miggy.

I 100% mean absolutely 0 disrespect. 

Who on our team, is a 1st division Regular in your eyes. This is a serious question as it is the framework for my thinking. I will reply w/ my thoughts but I don't want to taint your thinking beforehand. 

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

 

There is almost 0% scenario that any trade of Skubal makes us better for next year. Otherwise no team would be trading that talent for Skubal required to get him....... The yankee's aren't trading Judge and Garret Cole and three of thier top prospects for Skubal..........

The whole point of trading Skubal is forfitting next year, waiting for the next wave of prospects to come up (next year and the year after) and supplementing them for a run of a decade. Trading Skubal sets us up for a decade. Keeping him gives us a chance next year, then Baseball Purgatory Hell for the next 10 after that (see: Ohtani,  Angels, Los Angeles for reference). Me for one would sacrifice one season, for 10 good ones right after. But that's just my opinion. 

Imagine where the Angels would be had they moved Ohtani..... They could of gotten 5 top prospects for him. Instead they ran it for "one more year". It'll be another 5+ before they sniff the playoffs. And even then, thats a big "if". Choices.... All comes down to Choices. Angels wanted to try one more time, now they pay the price.

Does Harris learn from history? Or does he screw us for a decade by not moving him? It's up to him. But reap what you sow. I still am of the opinion, if he doesn't get traded, it's one of the worst baseball mistakes from the last 50 years. But again, that's just me. 

I agree that there are almost no scenarios in which a trade of Skubal does not make us worse next year, which is why I’m so against it.

I absolutely don’t agree not trading Skubal sends us into loser limbo for the next ten years. This relates to a post I made maybe a week ago, that the Avila reign of error has really scarred the Tigers fan base. The idea that if we keep Skubal, then let him walk for nothing in free agency, that will make us terrible for ten years? That’s thinking borne of those Avlla years, because that’s exactly what would have happened under him. It’s that fatalistic thinking that we’ve gotten so used to, and perhaps a bit defensively to prevent us from giving our heart to anyone new only to see him stomp all over it with the boot of incompetence.

I also don’t agree that if we do trade Skubal, we guarantee ourselves ten good years after that, because think about it: if we are willing to trade Skubal now before his walk year, why wouldn’t we be willing to trade Kevin McGonigle, or Max Clark or Troy Melton or Josue Briceno etc., before their walk years? What makes trading Skubal so unique now that we would never do so with those other players? That makes no sense to me.

In the end, I promise you that if we were to trade Tarik Skubal this winter and the Tigers have a substantially worse season next year, Scott Harris would get absolutely crushed, and rightly so, for kneecapping the franchise's momentum toward perennial contention. We are no longer the 2019 Tigers. We are not in perpetual rebuilding mode. We have no interest in looking forward to any more draft lotteries. We are contenders now, and we have to act like it, and that means not trading away your Cy Young ace for a bag of magic beans.

But that also means Scott Harris needs to make the moves that get us to the next step up the contention ladder next year. Pressure’s on him now, as it should be, but at least let’s give the guy a chance to deliver on that. And if he doesn’t—if he pussyfoots around, runs the same kind of team out there in 2026, and we stumble backwards because of him—then I will gladly join in the chorus of boos that rain down on him a year from today.

Edited October 21 by chasfh

[oblong]

Skubal is awesome and I won’t mind if he finished a HOF career as a tiger at market value.  But he’s one player. One of 5 starters.  A good system can’t guarantee a player of his caliber all the time, nobody can,  but it can get you 3 guys who are 85-90% of him.  You still need to win the other 80% of the games he doesn’t play. 

[4hzglory]

38 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I 100% mean absolutely 0 disrespect. 

Who on our team, is a 1st division Regular in your eyes. This is a serious question as it is the framework for my thinking. I will reply w/ my thoughts but I don't want to taint your thinking beforehand. 

I think Dingler, Carpenter, Greene, and Tork are above average and would be regulars (500 plus PA’s) on most playoff teams.  Obviously if they resign Torres he would be also.

And I think McKinstry would likely get 400 plus PA’s on a lot of this year’s playoff teams as well.

This team as constructed with Skubal are the favorites for the Central in 2026.  
 

By 2027 McGonigle and Clark should be here (McGonigle likely in 2026).  Who know maybe Lee or Anderson will surprise also.

Not to mention the other prospects at AA and below.  

[AlaskanTigersFan]

30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I agree that there are almost no scenarios in which a trade of Skubal does not make us worse next year, which is why I’m so against it.

I absolutely don’t agree not trading Skubal sends us into loser limbo for the next ten years. This relates to a post I made maybe a week ago, that the Avila reign of error has really scarred the Tigers fan base. The idea that if we keep Skubal, then let him walk for nothing in free agency, that will make us terrible for ten years? That’s thinking borne of those Avlla years, because that’s exactly what would have happened under him. It’s that fatalistic thinking that we’ve gotten so used to, and perhaps a bit defensively to prevent us from giving our heart to anyone new only to see him stomp all over it with the boot of incompetence.

I also don’t agree that if we do trade Skubal, we guarantee ourselves ten good years after that, because think about it: if we are willing to trade Skubal now before his walk year, why wouldn’t we be willing to trade Kevin McGonigle, or Max Clark or Troy Melton or Josue Briceno etc., before their walk years? What makes trading Skubal so unique now that we would never do so with those other players? That makes no sense to me.

In the end, I promise you that if we were to trade Tarik Skubal this winter and the Tigers have a substantially worse season next year, Scott Harris would get absolutely crushed, and rightly so, for kneecapping the franchise's momentum toward perennial contention. We are no longer the 2019 Tigers. We are not in perpetual rebuilding mode. We are have no interest in looking forward to any more draft lotteries. We are contenders now, and we have to act like it, and that means not trading away your Cy Young ace for a bag of magic beans. But that also means Scott Harris needs to make the moves that get us to the next step up the contention ladder next year. Pressure’s on him now, as it should be, but at least let’s give the guy a chance to deliver on that. And if he doesn’t—if he pussyfoots around, runs the same kind of team out there in 2026, and we stumble backwards because of him—then I will gladly join in the chorus of boos that rain down on him a year from today.

I totally appreciate where you're coming from. The point I'm trying to make goes with the same question I asked 4H. On our team, how many position players do you consider first division regulars right now? Thats a very important question to answer. It derives the whole situation. (Also, a quick response to you, is I hope the answer to this question is a lot higher when McGonigle and Clark are due to have contracts up). 

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

There is almost 0% scenario that any trade of Skubal makes us better for next year. Otherwise no team would be trading that talent for Skubal required to get him....... The yankee's aren't trading Judge and Garret Cole and three of thier top prospects for Skubal..........

The only way we could lose Skubal and be as competitive is if an MLB ready player comes back in the trade and has a break out year a la Austin Jackson at 5 WAR. There are players out there - Aiden Miller might be able to do that, *IF* you can get one back.  And along with that we would still need a little luck on the home front development scene like Anderson or McGonigle showing up at >3 WAR. Is it likely, no. Possible, sure. And you generally need a little of that kind of luck to win a WS (unless you are the Dodgers anyway). We weren't supposed to get better last season after the deadline, but we did. Baseball is a very funny game.

But that *IF* is still the word that matters. All this discussion boils down to "Is the return good enough to make it worth it."  Of course it *could* be, but we will likely never know what was offered unless a trade is made and it plays out.

Edited October 21 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

24 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The only way we could lose Skubal and be as competitive is if ...

We're not getting MLB players back in a Skubal trade good enough to keep us competitive at the same level.

We're getting A/AA guys and maybe 1 AAA guy that might be close to ready for MLB. Or 1 guy with very limited MLB experience.

But Harris is not restricted to ONLY getting MLB players back from a Skubal trade and ALSO restricted from making ANY OTHER offseason moves, is he?

He can make trades, and he can sign Free Agents.

You're not the only one doing this G2...

But I am seeing this CONSTANTLY posted in here by multiple posters...

"If we trade Skubal in the offseason we have NO CHANCE of making the playoffs in 2026."

REALLY?

What if Harris, after trading Skubal, swings a trade for Joe Ryan or Jacob DeGrom?

What if he signs Dylan Cease, Walker Buehler, Flaherty, and Kyle Tucker this offseason?

Or name any other position player FA you wish... Bregman? Bichette?

Really, we have NO CHANCE in 2026 if we trade Skubal?

None?

[1984Echoes]

PS: I'm calling bull**** on that. On everyone posting that very limiting narrative.

 

BULL ****.

[chasfh]

29 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I totally appreciate where you're coming from. The point I'm trying to make goes with the same question I asked 4H. On our team, how many position players do you consider first division regulars right now? Thats a very important question to answer. It derives the whole situation. (Also, a quick response to you, is I hope the answer to this question is a lot higher when McGonigle and Clark are due to have contracts up). 

Riley has proved he can be. Tork is showing potential of possibly being. We don’t know what Dingler is quite yet. No one else is in that realm. So you’re right—we’re short on talent.

But please remember: we are not at peak Harris Tigers. What we’re seeing right now is a bonus team. These guys weren’t supposed to get to two straight divisions series so soon. We weren’t supposed to start seriously contending until next year, and maybe even 2027, because that’s how long it takes to overhaul a major league system from scratch, which is what Harris has been charged with doing.

But here we are now, way ahead of schedule. Through canny pickups by Harris and great managing by Hinch, we have gone to two straight division series. Just roll that around in your mind for a second.

Now consider that we have a whole gaggle of pedigreed position players poised to descend on Detroit from our system: Kevin McGonigle. Max Clark. Josue Briceno. Thayron Liranzo. Hao-Yu Lee. Bryce Rainer. Max Anderson. They may not all make it here, and they may not all do really well once they get here, but it’s a halfway decent bet a couple of them will be All-Star level, and a couple more will be good enough to contribute to a first division team.

But we’re also not limited to who comes out of the system. There are a couple other ways we could add an impact player to the team, and I think it’s fair to give Harris the chance to do so once the time is right, which is looking like perhaps this winter. We’ll see what he does, and I think we all would like to see him do something. It may not be the most obvious sexy thing, but then, we didn’t know Gleyber Torres was the sexy thing the moment we got him, either.

And on top of all this, remember this as well: this team of non first-division regulars you regard us as being? This team has gone to two straight division series. Now just imagine the potential of a Tigers team that has actual first-division talent.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Riley has proved he can be. Tork is showing potential of possibly being. We don’t know what Dingler is quite yet. No one else is in that realm. So you’re right—we’re short on talent.

But please remember: we are not at peak Harris Tigers. What we’re seeing right now is a bonus team. These guys weren’t supposed to get to two straight divisions series so soon. We weren’t supposed to start seriously contending until next year, and maybe even 2027, because that’s how long it takes to overhaul a major league system from scratch, which is what Harris has been charged with doing.

But here we are now, way ahead of schedule. Through canny pickups by Harris and great managing by Hinch, we have gone to two straight division series. Just roll that around in your mind for a second.

Now consider that we have a whole gaggle of pedigreed position players poised to descend on Detroit from our system: Kevin McGonigle. Max Clark. Josue Briceno. Thayron Liranzo. Hao-Yu Lee. Bryce Rainer. Max Anderson. They may not all make it here, and they may not all do really well once they get here, but it’s a halfway decent bet a couple of them will be All-Star level, and a couple more will be good enough to contribute to a first division team.

But we’re also not limited to who comes out of the system. There are a couple other ways we could add an impact player to the team, and I think it’s fair to give Harris the chance to do so once the time is right, which is looking like perhaps this winter. We’ll see what he does, and I think we all would like to see him do something. It may not be the most obvious sexy thing, but then, we didn’t know Gleyber Torres was the sexy thing the moment we got him, either.

And on top of all this, remember this as well: this team of non first-division regulars you regard us as being? This team has gone to two straight division series. Now just imagine the potential of a Tigers team that has actual first-division talent.

This is the best post I've read in weeks on here. And I agree 100%. Which is why I'm a proponent of trading Skubal to Add to McGonigle, Clark, Briceno, Tork, and  Carpenter. I'm also not sold on Dingler. I want to be. But this might have been a career year for him. You add Aidin Miller and Justin Crawford to our team though, and bring back Painter (who realistically can be 80% of what Skubal is next year) and add that to the core thats here/coming up, you have a perenial divison winner. 

 

Good post sir. I concur 100%.

[4hzglory]

2 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

and bring back Painter (who realistically can be 80% of what Skubal is next year) 

I’m sorry, but I think you completely overate other teams prospects.  Did you see what Painter did this year?  He realistically has a chance in 5 years to have 1 season 80% as good as Skubal did this year.  He’s a really good pitching prospect, but probably rated better last year (like Jobe). The league is littered with top pitching prospects who never become what Casey Mize was this year.

I’d love to have Painter in our system, but he (or the Mets pitchers) is far from the sure thing you act like he is.

[papalawrence]

After tonight I could see Seattle going hard after Skubal. But I think Harris won't budge on the ask and ultimately he stays.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

43 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

I’m sorry, but I think you completely overate other teams prospects.  Did you see what Painter did this year?  He realistically has a chance in 5 years to have 1 season 80% as good as Skubal did this year.  He’s a really good pitching prospect, but probably rated better last year (like Jobe). The league is littered with top pitching prospects who never become what Casey Mize was this year.

I’d love to have Painter in our system, but he (or the Mets pitchers) is far from the sure thing you act like he is.

Considering how much time I spend looking at advanced stats and tracking, I think there's a realistic chance. Besides, I'm not just saying Painter. I'll bet you $1,000 right now, that in two years, Aiden Miller, Crawford and Painter will have > 4 WAR per season than Skubal. Whole forum can be my witness.

[SoCalTiger]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

We're not getting MLB players back in a Skubal trade good enough to keep us competitive at the same level.

We're getting A/AA guys and maybe 1 AAA guy that might be close to ready for MLB. Or 1 guy with very limited MLB experience.

But Harris is not restricted to ONLY getting MLB players back from a Skubal trade and ALSO restricted from making ANY OTHER offseason moves, is he?

He can make trades, and he can sign Free Agents.

You're not the only one doing this G2...

But I am seeing this CONSTANTLY posted in here by multiple posters...

"If we trade Skubal in the offseason we have NO CHANCE of making the playoffs in 2026."

REALLY?

What if Harris, after trading Skubal, swings a trade for Joe Ryan or Jacob DeGrom?

What if he signs Dylan Cease, Walker Buehler, Flaherty, and Kyle Tucker this offseason?

Or name any other position player FA you wish... Bregman? Bichette?

Really, we have NO CHANCE in 2026 if we trade Skubal?

None?

So true. Many many options available. And I do think we can get one MLB piece, one close and one high end minor leaguer for Skubal and then sign some solid free agents. Adding Cease lessens the blow as you suggest. maybe we get Miller or Woo from Seattle along with Emerson. That keeps us competitive as well. Add Cease and Bryce Miller to our staff and it's still solid. Add some SOLID bullpen pieces. We can get to 87 wins with that....

[Tiger337]

7 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Considering how much time I spend looking at advanced stats and tracking, I think there's a realistic chance. Besides, I'm not just saying Painter. I'll bet you $1,000 right now, that in two years, Aiden Miller, Crawford and Painter will have > 4 WAR per season than Skubal. Whole forum can be my witness.

I am curious to know what kind of advanced stats and tracking you've seen which makes you so confident in your ability to project minor league players that you are willing bet $1,000 on it.  That sounds like it would be a great contribution to the discussion if you'd give some details.  

[AlaskanTigersFan]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I am curious to know what kind of advanced stats and tracking you've seen which makes you so confident in your ability to project minor league players that you are willing bet $1,000 on it.  That sounds like it would be a great contribution to the discussion if you'd give some details.  

Baseball America - I recommend their prospect Handbook
Fangraphs - Does a great job even though I think they are always conservative
ProspectSavant.com - Very in depth, just like baseball Savant. 

When you look at all three and they all rank players above 55 FV (which raaaaaaaaaarely happens), they usually turn into good players. When one gives a FV of 45 and the other two are at 60, then it gives you pause. Basallo from the Orioles for example. Baseball America gave him a 65, Fangraphs 60 and Prospect Savant has him at 60. His slash line this year .165/.229/.559. Most people would call him a bum. Yet if you look at the underlying numbers with his barrel rate and BABIP, he very well could have been 100 points higher in every category. 

I want to put the disclaimer that this isn't always 100% accurate. Andrew Vaughn was supposed to be the next Miguel Cabrera as was Torkelson. There's no underlying metrics that disagreed as they came up. Tork like many others have Torched college and Minors (Torks MILB numbers are .253/.370/.864[OPS]). Yet his career MLB line is .227/.310/.722(OPS).

No one can say for certain a prospect is "can't miss". But there are definitely ways to hedge your bet. I like many others would have bet the house that Paul Skenes would turn out the way he did. Anyone who followed the media going after him for being the best pitcher since Strasburg would. But when you look at his underlying numbers with 8" movement on the LOWEND(!), you're going to get some nastiness.........

I remember WhiteCapWendy took me to lunch when I was in college (if anyone knows her, please send her back to the forums!!!!). She got me a lunch with Dallas Trehern who was part of the package traded for Miguel Cabrera. At the time he was in the system with Andrew Miller and said he's never seen movement like his. Everyone thought Andrew was the next best thing in baseball..... He didn't turn out that great (at least not the first half of his career, but when he moved to the BP he had 4 decent season). Looking at his MILB stats, nothing goes to show that he would be great. Fangraphs wasn't available back then to track it. My point being is that you can follow the media, you can read the stories, and take it for what its worth. Or you can look into players, see what's actually under the hood, and hedge your bet.

The underlying metics on Painter show that he could be a #1 or #2 pitcher if healthy. Ball movement, low hard contact rate are unbelievable. He throws 6 pitches above 100 in psstuff+...... Thats INSANE. His PS Score is 95.72. (He also had a .352 BABIP against him when the average pitcher sis .225). Add all that up, especially coming off injury, dudes a stud. Look at Justin Crawford - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/justin-crawford/sa3020240/stats?position=OF - STUD, Look at Aiden Miller - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aidan-miller/sa3022609/stats?position=SS - STUD.

If Dave Dombrowski resigns Schwarber, he's going for it again. If the Tigers trade Skubal to them and they can get all three of these guys (which is actually realistic), this could set our team up. Again, there's no such thing as sure thing. One or all three of these guys could be busts. But EVERYTHING points to these three players being well above average and being potential All-Stars. I'd take three well above average players (average age 21 coming to the majors) over a pitcher that's going to be 30. Even due to health concerns. Skubal pitches, elbow hurts, we're F'd. Hopefully it doesn't happen. All I'm saying is, I hope Harris hedges the bets. I cant even dream of what resources they have, to do prospect research...... But my dream is this trade. I don't think the Tigers would go wrong. I could be wrong, dead wrong. But I'm guessing I'm not. And I'd put that $1,000 dollars on it because I like looking at the stats that back it up. Betting with underlying stats gives me an edge, and I'd be willing to take that bet all day long. 

 

[4hzglory]

14 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Baseball America - I recommend their prospect Handbook
Fangraphs - Does a great job even though I think they are always conservative
ProspectSavant.com - Very in depth, just like baseball Savant. 

When you look at all three and they all rank players above 55 FV (which raaaaaaaaaarely happens), they usually turn into good players. When one gives a FV of 45 and the other two are at 60, then it gives you pause. Basallo from the Orioles for example. Baseball America gave him a 65, Fangraphs 60 and Prospect Savant has him at 60. His slash line this year .165/.229/.559. Most people would call him a bum. Yet if you look at the underlying numbers with his barrel rate and BABIP, he very well could have been 100 points higher in every category. 

I want to put the disclaimer that this isn't always 100% accurate. Andrew Vaughn was supposed to be the next Miguel Cabrera as was Torkelson. There's no underlying metrics that disagreed as they came up. Tork like many others have Torched college and Minors (Torks MILB numbers are .253/.370/.864[OPS]). Yet his career MLB line is .227/.310/.722(OPS).

No one can say for certain a prospect is "can't miss". But there are definitely ways to hedge your bet. I like many others would have bet the house that Paul Skenes would turn out the way he did. Anyone who followed the media going after him for being the best pitcher since Strasburg would. But when you look at his underlying numbers with 8" movement on the LOWEND(!), you're going to get some nastiness.........

I remember WhiteCapWendy took me to lunch when I was in college (if anyone knows her, please send her back to the forums!!!!). She got me a lunch with Dallas Trehern who was part of the package traded for Miguel Cabrera. At the time he was in the system with Andrew Miller and said he's never seen movement like his. Everyone thought Andrew was the next best thing in baseball..... He didn't turn out that great (at least not the first half of his career, but when he moved to the BP he had 4 decent season). Looking at his MILB stats, nothing goes to show that he would be great. Fangraphs wasn't available back then to track it. My point being is that you can follow the media, you can read the stories, and take it for what its worth. Or you can look into players, see what's actually under the hood, and hedge your bet.

The underlying metics on Painter show that he could be a #1 or #2 pitcher if healthy. Ball movement, low hard contact rate are unbelievable. He throws 6 pitches above 100 in psstuff+...... Thats INSANE. His PS Score is 95.72. (He also had a .352 BABIP against him when the average pitcher sis .225). Add all that up, especially coming off injury, dudes a stud. Look at Justin Crawford - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/justin-crawford/sa3020240/stats?position=OF - STUD, Look at Aiden Miller - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aidan-miller/sa3022609/stats?position=SS - STUD.

If Dave Dombrowski resigns Schwarber, he's going for it again. If the Tigers trade Skubal to them and they can get all three of these guys (which is actually realistic), this could set our team up. Again, there's no such thing as sure thing. One or all three of these guys could be busts. But EVERYTHING points to these three players being well above average and being potential All-Stars. I'd take three well above average players (average age 21 coming to the majors) over a pitcher that's going to be 30. Even due to health concerns. Skubal pitches, elbow hurts, we're F'd. Hopefully it doesn't happen. All I'm saying is, I hope Harris hedges the bets. I cant even dream of what resources they have, to do prospect research...... But my dream is this trade. I don't think the Tigers would go wrong. I could be wrong, dead wrong. But I'm guessing I'm not. And I'd put that $1,000 dollars on it because I like looking at the stats that back it up. Betting with underlying stats gives me an edge, and I'd be willing to take that bet all day long. 

 

FYI, I think most of the posters on here, especially ones like Lee look at those same sites you do, and we all see the same things, no matter what the metrics say, you have numerous cases like Vaughn and Tork.   It does mean they will likely be solid major leaguers, but even the top metric guys usually have multiple seasons before they become consistent "studs".  Thinking all 3, even 2 of the 3 are going to be that within 2 seasons, let alone 1, is very wishful thinking.  FYI, the metrics love our current prospects including Lee and Rainer also.

[Tiger337]

28 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Baseball America - I recommend their prospect Handbook
Fangraphs - Does a great job even though I think they are always conservative
ProspectSavant.com - Very in depth, just like baseball Savant. 

When you look at all three and they all rank players above 55 FV (which raaaaaaaaaarely happens), they usually turn into good players. When one gives a FV of 45 and the other two are at 60, then it gives you pause. Basallo from the Orioles for example. Baseball America gave him a 65, Fangraphs 60 and Prospect Savant has him at 60. His slash line this year .165/.229/.559. Most people would call him a bum. Yet if you look at the underlying numbers with his barrel rate and BABIP, he very well could have been 100 points higher in every category. 

I want to put the disclaimer that this isn't always 100% accurate. Andrew Vaughn was supposed to be the next Miguel Cabrera as was Torkelson. There's no underlying metrics that disagreed as they came up. Tork like many others have Torched college and Minors (Torks MILB numbers are .253/.370/.864[OPS]). Yet his career MLB line is .227/.310/.722(OPS).

No one can say for certain a prospect is "can't miss". But there are definitely ways to hedge your bet. I like many others would have bet the house that Paul Skenes would turn out the way he did. Anyone who followed the media going after him for being the best pitcher since Strasburg would. But when you look at his underlying numbers with 8" movement on the LOWEND(!), you're going to get some nastiness.........

I remember WhiteCapWendy took me to lunch when I was in college (if anyone knows her, please send her back to the forums!!!!). She got me a lunch with Dallas Trehern who was part of the package traded for Miguel Cabrera. At the time he was in the system with Andrew Miller and said he's never seen movement like his. Everyone thought Andrew was the next best thing in baseball..... He didn't turn out that great (at least not the first half of his career, but when he moved to the BP he had 4 decent season). Looking at his MILB stats, nothing goes to show that he would be great. Fangraphs wasn't available back then to track it. My point being is that you can follow the media, you can read the stories, and take it for what its worth. Or you can look into players, see what's actually under the hood, and hedge your bet.

The underlying metics on Painter show that he could be a #1 or #2 pitcher if healthy. Ball movement, low hard contact rate are unbelievable. He throws 6 pitches above 100 in psstuff+...... Thats INSANE. His PS Score is 95.72. (He also had a .352 BABIP against him when the average pitcher sis .225). Add all that up, especially coming off injury, dudes a stud. Look at Justin Crawford - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/justin-crawford/sa3020240/stats?position=OF - STUD, Look at Aiden Miller - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aidan-miller/sa3022609/stats?position=SS - STUD.

If Dave Dombrowski resigns Schwarber, he's going for it again. If the Tigers trade Skubal to them and they can get all three of these guys (which is actually realistic), this could set our team up. Again, there's no such thing as sure thing. One or all three of these guys could be busts. But EVERYTHING points to these three players being well above average and being potential All-Stars. I'd take three well above average players (average age 21 coming to the majors) over a pitcher that's going to be 30. Even due to health concerns. Skubal pitches, elbow hurts, we're F'd. Hopefully it doesn't happen. All I'm saying is, I hope Harris hedges the bets. I cant even dream of what resources they have, to do prospect research...... But my dream is this trade. I don't think the Tigers would go wrong. I could be wrong, dead wrong. But I'm guessing I'm not. And I'd put that $1,000 dollars on it because I like looking at the stats that back it up. Betting with underlying stats gives me an edge, and I'd be willing to take that bet all day long. 

 

Of all the readilly available info, those are all good sources.  My only advice would be don't bet money that you need on minor leaguers!

Edited October 21 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

46 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Of all the readilly available info, those are all good sources.  My only advice would be don't bet money that you need on minor leaguers!

reminds me of the old saw about "economists have correctly predicted 7 of the last 2 recessions."  Few guys do well in the majors without having shown a lot of promise - though even that does happen occasionally, but a lot of guys show a lot of promise and still don't turn into much.

It might be wise to make some distinction between hitters and pitchers though. With modern instrumentation you can measure exactly what a pitcher throws, and know fairly for certain if his stuff can get out MLB hitters. It's command that is still harder to predict as they face better hitters, but you do have a pretty good handle on stuff today that was not available in the past.  But with hitters it remains harder to know how they will fare as the quality of pitching goes up because so much of hitting is mental/perceptual, and you don't know where a guy's hand/head limits are until he is tested at those limits by MLB pitching.

Now that said, with pitchers the injury risk today is so high that even if you are pretty confident a guy has the stuff to succeed in the majors, whether his arm will hold together long enough to have a good career is probably just a big an unknown as the overall unknowns with hitters, maybe bigger.

⚕️

Edited October 21 by gehringer_2

[Tigermojo]

We might see Harris' strategy shift a bit now. He's been bringing in a lot of quantity over quality. A tough lesson to learn looking back at the trade deadline. The roster is getting better and the crunch is about to get real. Instead of looking for an innings eater like Maeda was supposed to be, maybe he targets a legit number two starter.

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, papalawrence said:

After tonight I could see Seattle going hard after Skubal. But I think Harris won't budge on the ask and ultimately he stays.

Would you like to see Harris budge on the ask?

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

So true. Many many options available. And I do think we can get one MLB piece, one close and one high end minor leaguer for Skubal and then sign some solid free agents. Adding Cease lessens the blow as you suggest. maybe we get Miller or Woo from Seattle along with Emerson. That keeps us competitive as well. Add Cease and Bryce Miller to our staff and it's still solid. Add some SOLID bullpen pieces. We can get to 87 wins with that....

Pursuant to this point: I would find it really surprising if a team were willing to give up the impact MLB-level batter or pitcher we here covet in return for Skubal. After all, that team would be getting Skubal for a single year, 2026, so their goal, obviously, would be to win a ring in 2026. So it makes no sense—to me anyway—that they would hamper their chances of that by switching out multiple wins at one position in exchange for the wins Skubal brings them on the mound. That seems to me to be close to treading water on their part. Or am I missing something here?

The only way I see it is they trade us a 2+ win guy who's blocking a top-100 prospect at the AAA level.

[chasfh]

Just now, chasfh said:

Pursuant to this point: I would find it really surprising if a team were willing to give up the impact MLB-level batter or pitcher we here covet in return for Skubal. After all, that team would be getting Skubal for a single year, 2026, so their goal, obviously, would be to win a ring in 2026. So it makes no sense—to me anyway—that they would hamper their chances of that by switching out multiple wins at one position in exchange for the wins Skubal brings them on the mound. That seems to me to be close to treading water on their part. Or am I missing something here?

The only way I see it is they trade us a 2+ win guy who's blocking a top-100 prospect at the AAA level.

But wait—there's more:

If we trade Skubal to a team whose goal in picking him up is winning a ring in 2026, then wouldn't that get directly in our way, blocking our own goal of a ring in 2026? Especially if we were to trade him to an AL team like Seattle. Would Harris really load up a direct competitor with Tarik Skubal in order to wipe us out of the playoffs?

So, if Harris does trade Skubal, then by default logic, he is giving up on winning a ring in 2026 for the promise of a vague and indeterminate future ring in who knows what season. And that would be kneecapping our momentum toward steadily improving this team in the hopes of winning a ring in, yes, 2026. And if Harris did that, he owuld be endlessly hammered for screwing up that momentum and our chances, regardless of how promising those future prospects are.

This is why I have to conclude that there is no way on god's green earth Scott Harris trades Tarik Skubal unless the trade makes our team better in 2026, specifically—and I have trouble envisioning any way any other team would make a trade like that.

 

[SoCalTiger]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Pursuant to this point: I would find it really surprising if a team were willing to give up the impact MLB-level batter or pitcher we here covet in return for Skubal. After all, that team would be getting Skubal for a single year, 2026, so their goal, obviously, would be to win a ring in 2026. So it makes no sense—to me anyway—that they would hamper their chances of that by switching out multiple wins at one position in exchange for the wins Skubal brings them on the mound. That seems to me to be close to treading water on their part. Or am I missing something here?

The only way I see it is they trade us a 2+ win guy who's blocking a top-100 prospect at the AAA level.

Or if Skubal pushes a good starter out of their rotation and they send him to us. Perhaps their number four that would be our two or three after the trade or someone very close to major league ready. 

But your point is well taken and most likely  the case. 

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The only way I see it is they trade us a 2+ win guy who's blocking a top-100 prospect at the AAA level.

yes - that or the inverse, they trade the prospect blocked by their 4 win guy and he turns out to be a 4 win guy too. I'm really curious to see whether Harris can be a guy that separates himself from the pack in player acquisition in baseball to the degree Holmes has in football. If he can pick from a team's MilB offer list with the kind of acumen that landed a McGonigle, then I'm all for a trade. But if his judgment is no better than they've been with the MLB acquisitions (Maeda, etc), then maybe not so much!