Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, TcFlint said:

The Dodgers or Blue Jays (two huge spenders) would have embarrassed the Tigers.  

I don't think you can ever say that which much certainty in a short series.  

[Screwball]

28 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think you can ever say that which much certainty in a short series.  

Especially when crazy things happen, and we just watched a whole bunch of that.

[chasfh]

You would have thought people would have realized that because of 1960, but I guess not.

[papalawrence]

10 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think you can ever say that which much certainty in a short series.  

I agree. The huge payroll can help a team to the playoffs over 162, but many factors play a role in a series, including dumb luck. 

[Arlington]

I am all for getting our socks knocked off by a great offer for Skube.  Despite the success of the Tigers, you can't build a team for the WS, just the playoffs.  Statistically, a 537 pct team (Tigers) playing a 574 pct team (Dodgers) isn't going win 50% of the time but its going to be darn, no not darn, damn, damn close to that.  What is more important than star power is player control and depth.  I want quality players who will contribute for a number of years in specific roles and help ensure a playoff spot in 2026 and beyond.  With the quality of players we have projected for the next 5 years, it would be foolish to diminish years 2-5 because of a perceived better chance for year 1 due to one player.  I don't believe for a second that the players will feel betrayed if they trade Skubal for quality players.  They didn't in 2024.  Spring training 2025 held an optimism that we hadn't felt in years.  2026 is going to be filled with eye opening prospects who are already used to winning.   I would be very happy to add two or three more prospects to the mix for Skubal.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[Shelton]

The tigers may decide to trade Skubal. They might not. That isn’t the point of this particular post. 
 

What bothers me most in the Skubal trade discourse is the nonsense of “the tigers cannot let Skubal walk away and only get a compensatory pick.” It’s nonsense because it applies equally to any other team that would trade for him. It’s offensive and completely dismisses the contender status of the tigers.
 

If the Mets trade for him tomorrow, will we suddenly see articles about how the Mets can’t let him walk? About how the tigers have great prospects like Jonah Tong to tempt the Mets in a trade? Of course not. And spare me the idea that the Mets are in better position to extend him. We’ve also got articles pumping up the ****ing mariners as being in on him. 
 

Every one of these potential trade partners is going to hypothetically give up a lot of player capital to get him, and then be in exactly the position the tigers are in now that is apparently untenable. **** that. 

[4hzglory]

20 minutes ago, Shelton said:

The tigers may decide to trade Skubal. They might not. That isn’t the point of this particular post. 
 

What bothers me most in the Skubal trade discourse is the nonsense of “the tigers cannot let Skubal walk away and only get a compensatory pick.” It’s nonsense because it applies equally to any other team that would trade for him. It’s offensive and completely dismisses the contender status of the tigers.
 

If the Mets trade for him tomorrow, will we suddenly see articles about how the Mets can’t let him walk? About how the tigers have great prospects like Jonah Tong to tempt the Mets in a trade? Of course not. And spare me the idea that the Mets are in better position to extend him. We’ve also got articles pumping up the ****ing mariners as being in on him. 
 

Every one of these potential trade partners is going to hypothetically give up a lot of player capital to get him, and then be in exactly the position the tigers are in now that is apparently untenable. **** that. 

Amen!  Why would we be in any different position than the Mariners who we were 1 base hit away of beating in a 5 game series.

[papalawrence]

If they struggle the first half of 2026 they can still trade him before the deadline, and they'd get a nice haul then. If they are in contention they'll keep him and get the comp pick. I think highest odds are on those 2 scenarios. Harris get solid offers this winter, but none will outweigh the fact that Detroit has a chance to win next season.

 

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, Shelton said:

Every one of these potential trade partners is going to hypothetically give up a lot of player capital to get him, and then be in exactly the position the tigers are in now that is apparently untenable. **** that. 

Which means, of course, that no other organization is likely to empty the top of the farm system for one year of Skubal.

[ToledoBrian]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Which means, of course, that no other organization is likely to empty the top of the farm system for one year of Skubal.

I believe this also.  Will there be trade offers, absolutely, possibly even great offers.  I also believe each year is it's own separate Universe and our best chance to win in 2026 is with Skubal, anything beyond 2026 is total speculation with too many moving parts. Keep Skubal, add 1 big RH hitter (3B, SS or RF), add at least 1 SP and most of all strengthen the bullpen.  Let 2027 & beyond take care of itself within the minors for now, we don't know what our needs are going to be. Maybe McGonigle & Clark fly out of the gate in 2026, maybe Madden comes back & Dylan Smith takes another step forward into the bullpen rotation.  We'll see but I am reasonably certain I will enjoy 2026 more with Tarik in a Tigers uniform all year than not.  

[chasfh]

Just now, ToledoBrian said:

I believe this also.  Will there be trade offers, absolutely, possibly even great offers.  I also believe each year is it's own separate Universe and our best chance to win in 2026 is with Skubal, anything beyond 2026 is total speculation with too many moving parts. Keep Skubal, add 1 big RH hitter (3B, SS or RF), add at least 1 SP and most of all strengthen the bullpen.  Let 2027 & beyond take care of itself within the minors for now, we don't know what our needs are going to be. Maybe McGonigle & Clark fly out of the gate in 2026, maybe Madden comes back & Dylan Smith takes another step forward into the bullpen rotation.  We'll see but I am reasonably certain I will enjoy 2026 more with Tarik in a Tigers uniform all year than not.  

I’m out of reactions, but Like.

[casimir]

25 minutes ago, ToledoBrian said:

I believe this also.  Will there be trade offers, absolutely, possibly even great offers.  I also believe each year is it's own separate Universe and our best chance to win in 2026 is with Skubal, anything beyond 2026 is total speculation with too many moving parts. Keep Skubal, add 1 big RH hitter (3B, SS or RF), add at least 1 SP and most of all strengthen the bullpen.  Let 2027 & beyond take care of itself within the minors for now, we don't know what our needs are going to be. Maybe McGonigle & Clark fly out of the gate in 2026, maybe Madden comes back & Dylan Smith takes another step forward into the bullpen rotation.  We'll see but I am reasonably certain I will enjoy 2026 more with Tarik in a Tigers uniform all year than not.  

On board with this plan.

I don't doubt there will be trade offers.  But I don't know how to adequately put a value on playoff contention.  I don't know how to adequately put a value on having Skubal in a playoff rotation.  How do you put a price tag on that in a trade? 

[Hongbit]

My prediction is the Mets making an offer that Scott can’t refuse this winter.  They probably will bicker forever about Nolan McLean.  Scott will stand firm.  The Mets will stand firm and eventually counter with way more than they should to keep McLean out of it.  

Mets won’t treat this as a rental deal.  Steve Cohen would make the deal knowing that he’ll pay whatever Boras wants in FA.  Cohen’s ego is so big that he can’t even imagine losing Skubal in a money deal.  He may even make an offer so over the top before FA that Boras has no choice but to sign it and not take Skub to market.   

 

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

My prediction is the Mets making an offer that Scott can’t refuse this winter.  They probably will bicker forever about Nolan McLean.  Scott will stand firm.  The Mets will stand firm and eventually counter with way more than they should to keep McLean out of it.  

Mets won’t treat this as a rental deal.  Steve Cohen would make the deal knowing that he’ll pay whatever Boras wants in FA.  Cohen’s ego is so big that he can’t even imagine losing Skubal in a money deal.  He may even make an offer so over the top before FA that Boras has no choice but to sign it and not take Skub to market.   

 

The Mets are reaching irresistible force vs immovable object level between Cohen's ambition and the team liabilities. I'm not going to guess which gives first or when but at some point down the road that franchise is going to be a real mess.

[Edman85]

12 hours ago, Shelton said:

The tigers may decide to trade Skubal. They might not. That isn’t the point of this particular post. 
 

What bothers me most in the Skubal trade discourse is the nonsense of “the tigers cannot let Skubal walk away and only get a compensatory pick.” It’s nonsense because it applies equally to any other team that would trade for him. It’s offensive and completely dismisses the contender status of the tigers.
 

If the Mets trade for him tomorrow, will we suddenly see articles about how the Mets can’t let him walk? About how the tigers have great prospects like Jonah Tong to tempt the Mets in a trade? Of course not. And spare me the idea that the Mets are in better position to extend him. We’ve also got articles pumping up the ****ing mariners as being in on him. 
 

Every one of these potential trade partners is going to hypothetically give up a lot of player capital to get him, and then be in exactly the position the tigers are in now that is apparently untenable. **** that. 

There is also a lot of loss aversion fallacy in the "You have to re-sign him at all costs" talk. Once he hits free agency, the calculus is the same for all teams (except for tax/draft picks compensation on the edges). 2027 Tigers sans Skubal are the same whether they had him in 2026 or not.

[Shelton]

50 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

There is also a lot of loss aversion fallacy in the "You have to re-sign him at all costs" talk. Once he hits free agency, the calculus is the same for all teams (except for tax/draft picks compensation on the edges). 2027 Tigers sans Skubal are the same whether they had him in 2026 or not.

100%
 

Thankfully our quant GM understands the reality. 

[chasfh]

I don't know what  the offer would have to be to pry Skubal away from the Tigers this winter, or who would make such an offer, but if that offer does not make us better in 2026—if it were to force us to take a step back from contending—then it's just not going to happen. Simple as that. Because if Harris purposely takes us off the contender track for the promise of making us better than we are now starting in 2028 or 2029, the fans would go ape****, the players would go ape****, the free agents would avoid us for the rest of his tenure here, and he'd be basically a marked man in this industry. The only PBO job he could get after a debacle like that would be along the lines of Pirates, White Sox, Rockies, et al.

The only way he wouldn't be a marked man is if it's widely known the Baby Doc forced him to sell off Skubal which, after the millions poured into the infrastructure of the team to make us a perennial contender, simply doesn't pass the smell test.

[casimir]

41 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't know what  the offer would have to be to pry Skubal away from the Tigers this winter,

It would be an offer that gets the other GM fired.

[Tenacious D]

Don’t worry, once we slap the QO on Skubal, no team will touch him in free agency, surrendering a 2nd round pick.

[papalawrence]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Don’t worry, once we slap the QO on Skubal, no team will touch him in free agency, surrendering a 2nd round pick.

Does the CBA expire the day after the 2026 WS ends? Skubal likely won't be signing for months after that, as I expect a lengthy work stoppage. And who knows if the QO will remain in the new CBA

Edit to add - just checked. CBA expires Dec 1, 2026. It will be very interesting to see what happens during that short window of free agency after next season concludes

Edited Thursday at 06:19 PM by papalawrence

[IdahoBert]

Skubal would have to be an incredibly sweet guy to stay with the Tigers when he could go to the Dodgers and live the dream there.

He’s a pugnacious fighter and he’s ambitious. It would be out of character for him not to be all that he could be.

And there’s a good chance it’s not only about money. Being on a perennial World Series contender is pretty attractive in and of itself.

We should enjoy our ice cream before it melts and enjoy his last season as a Detroit Tiger. Full stop. 

[theroundsquare]

the big media markets also offer more opportunities for endorsement deals.  something in LA or NYC probably would provide multiples of whatever cure car insurance is paying skubal.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, IdahoBert said:

Skubal would have to be an incredibly sweet guy to stay with the Tigers when he could go to the Dodgers and live the dream there.

I don't know if it's Dodgers, necessarily. They have a lot of Cy Young-level pitchers there right now. But I bet it would be a team that was ready to contend for a ring before he gets there. 

[papalawrence]

In an interview after the Tigers bowed out he was asked about his hopes for the off season. Skubal made a statement that he expects the team to have a goal every year to win the WS. He clearly wants to win, and I would think the Dodgers will be hi on his list. Who wouldn't? You're almost guaranteed post season play every year. The Dodgers revenue is other worldly, and they reinvest most back into the team. If I were in his shoes (my feet would hurt, I wear size 16/17), I would want to play for LAD. Watch them sign Tucker this winter.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Does the CBA expire the day after the 2026 WS ends? Skubal likely won't be signing for months after that, as I expect a lengthy work stoppage. And who knows if the QO will remain in the new CBA

Edit to add - just checked. CBA expires Dec 1, 2026. It will be very interesting to see what happens during that short window of free agency after next season concludes

I think you made the correct argument - the answer it going to be 'nothing'