Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[gehringer_2]

45 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

? The team has been on the cusp of the ALCS the last two seasons with largely a young, inexperienced team. And three recent players, who played significant time for the Tigers, will likely be first ballot HOF’ers.

Detroit has amazing suburbs, payroll flexibility, a respected manager and coaching staff, young players who should only get better and an excellent chance at sustainable winning with one of the best minor league systems.

The only negative is the weather in April. I suspect most players can look past that.

The difference is the media and endorsement opportunities, and there are some players for whom that is important. Even aside from the market size or Hollywood aspect, if you are a Hispanic player and are interested in building a media brand you want to be in LA, SD or NYC instead of the mid-lands. But there are plenty of players who have no interest in doing that kind of thing. 

[romad1]

Detroit is on the tipping point in so many different ways.  The vibrancy of the city right now is amazing.  Losing Skubal would be a blow on so many levels. 

He is the grail. 

[romad1]

Mordred is the Cleveland Guardians in this scenario. 

[Tenacious D]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The difference is the media and endorsement opportunities, and there are some players for whom that is important. Even aside from the market size or Hollywood aspect, if you are a Hispanic player and are interested in building a media brand you want to be in LA, SD or NYC instead of the mid-lands. But there are plenty of players who have no interest in doing that kind of thing. 

I don’t see many, if at all, national endorsement deals for baseball players, beyond Ohtani. I never see Judge, Trout, etc.. in any commercials or sponsorships.

Skubal is the best pitcher on the planet, and he’s schlepping local Cure Insurance.

I don’t think endorsements will factor in much for a guy like Bregman, who at best, will get a local car dealership, regardless of the market he selects.

[chasfh]

23 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

? The team has been on the cusp of the ALCS the last two seasons with largely a young, inexperienced team. And three recent players, who played significant time for the Tigers, will likely be first ballot HOF’ers.

Detroit has amazing suburbs, payroll flexibility, a respected manager and coaching staff, young players who should only get better and an excellent chance at sustainable winning with one of the best minor league systems.

The only negative is the weather in April. I suspect most players can look past that.

The Tigers are simply not on par as a consideration as are the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, or Giants, and Detroit as a city is simply not as attractive a destination as New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, or San Francisco. Five of those teams have had championships within living memory of ballplayers, who grew up with all of those teams being dominant at one point or another, and the Mets are a NYC team with a huge cultural footprint befitting their location. You can't wish away the huge advantage these teams have in attracting top tier talent.

Detroit is also not as attractive a destination as San Diego, Phoenix, Dallas, or Houston, which are all warm-weather cities with very prominent Spanish-speaking communities, as well as being close to offseason homes for a lot of guys (although if they ever wanted to spend as a franchise, non-destination Miami could easily blow all four of those out of the water), so it's easy for their families and long-time friends to travel to watch them play at home.

Seattle also has a leg up over Detroit as a destination both for its youthful coolness and its proximity to Japan.

Of the remaining destinations, I would say Detroit also firmly lags behind Toronto (recent WS team, Vlad is there); Philadelphia (solid contender on the east coast, lots of superstars already there); and Atlanta (legacy franchise with a recent ring that is also close to home for many guys).

Despite their recent run of Central Division titles, I don't think I would include Milwaukee, since beyond playing in a dumpy town just like Detroit, the Brewers are also known to be in the 15th to 20th range in payroll.

Speaking of payroll, the 14 teams I have named as destinations are all in the top 15 in payroll. Only the Angels are up there with them, and they are not a destination because players can easily see how they can't win as a team even with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.

I think the Tigers could be very competitive for second-tier free agents with any of the remaining 16 teams.

Players want to go where the money and action is, and they also like to go where there are paid superstars already on long term deals. That last part was Detroit once, but then they famously blew it all up. What top-tier superstar would want to commit to a team that would do something like that?

 

[chasfh]

23 hours ago, romad1 said:

Detroit is on the tipping point in so many different ways.  The vibrancy of the city right now is amazing.  Losing Skubal would be a blow on so many levels. 

He is the grail. 

Despite all that I just posted, I also believe signing Skubal long term would be a huge tipping point for moving Detroit into at least the bottom rung of top destinations, at least for a while.

Also, I love Excalibur! HBO and The Movie Channel played the **** out of that movie when we first got cable in the early 80s (on a black and white TV, no less!), and I watched it over and over, to the point which I remember both the lines they delivered and the exact way they delivered them. 

Edited Tuesday at 04:14 PM by chasfh

[romad1]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Despite all that I just posted, I also believe signing Skubal long term would be a huge tipping point for moving Detroit into at least the bottom rung of top destinations, at least for a while.

Also, I love Excalibur! HBO and The Movie Channel played the **** out of that movie when we first got cable in the early 80s (on a black and white TV, no less!), and I watched it over and over, to the point which I remember both the lines they delivered and the exact way they delivered them. 

So many great parts.  I think the idea of his adoptive brother Sir Kay only being worried that he wouldn't be brave in the final battle against Mordred is touching.   We aren't all mighty.  Some of us are Merry and Pippin.   Also, If you are rolling into a battle Carmina Burana is a good way to get there.  

 

[SoCalTiger]

6 hours ago, chasfh said:

The Tigers are simply not on par as a consideration as are the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, or Giants, and Detroit as a city is simply not as attractive a destination as New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, or San Francisco. Five of those teams have had championships within living memory of ballplayers, who grew up with all of those teams being dominant at one point or another, and the Mets are a NYC team with a huge cultural footprint befitting their location. You can't wish away the huge advantage these teams have in attracting top tier talent.

Detroit is also not as attractive a destination as San Diego, Phoenix, Dallas, or Houston, which are all warm-weather cities with very prominent Spanish-speaking communities, as well as being close to offseason homes for a lot of guys (although if they ever wanted to spend as a franchise, non-destination Miami could easily blow all four of those out of the water), so it's easy for their families and long-time friends to travel to watch them play at home.

Seattle also has a leg up over Detroit as a destination both for its youthful coolness and its proximity to Japan.

Of the remaining destinations, I would say Detroit also firmly lags behind Toronto (recent WS team, Vlad is there); Philadelphia (solid contender on the east coast, lots of superstars already there); and Atlanta (legacy franchise with a recent ring that is also close to home for many guys).

Despite their recent run of Central Division titles, I don't think I would include Milwaukee, since beyond playing in a dumpy town just like Detroit, the Brewers are also known to be in the 15th to 20th range in payroll.

Speaking of payroll, the 14 teams I have named as destinations are all in the top 15 in payroll. Only the Angels are up there with them, and they are not a destination because players can easily see how they can't win as a team even with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.

I think the Tigers could be very competitive for second-tier free agents with any of the remaining 16 teams.

Players want to go where the money and action is, and they also like to go where there are paid superstars already on long term deals. That last part was Detroit once, but then they famously blew it all up. What top-tier superstar would want to commit to a team that would do something like that?

 

Good post but I don't know if I agree about Houston and I believe the Angels are since Orange County is known as great family (vanilla boring) area with great schools and wonderful beach towns where the players can live year round and spring training is one State over. What Arnie Moron has done to his franchise is criminal. It should be in the top five. 

Also don't discount Detroit, it has wonderful suburbs, a growing downtown , appeal to outdoor sportsmen a short drive away and game travel is actually not too bad since it's sort of centrally located and baseball is played in the Summer and they are beautiful in Michigan. 

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Good post but I don't know if I agree about Houston and I believe the Angels are since Orange County is known as great family (vanilla boring) area with great schools and wonderful beach towns where the players can live year round and spring training is one State over. What Arnie Moron has done to his franchise is criminal. It should be in the top five. 

Also don't discount Detroit, it has wonderful suburbs, a growing downtown , appeal to outdoor sportsmen a short drive away and game travel is actually not too bad since it's sort of centrally located and baseball is played in the Summer and they are beautiful in Michigan. 

Houston is one of the highest payroll teams, and guys like to go where other players are getting paid because that means the team pays. They also have rings in their very recent history, and that's very attractive to players looking for rings of there own.

As for Anaheim, like Detroit, they've had to overpay and overpromise to get top tier talent to sign there. They overpaid Rendon to go there (and, as it turns out, he doesn't even like baseball); and they were the only team on the west coast to promise Ohtani he could pitch. They also threw way too much money and years, probably unnecessarily, at Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. They also threw way too much money at Justin Upton, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Mo Vaughn, and certainly didn't get their money's worth from any of them.

If anything, I think they lucked out with Mike Trout already being there. I have long believed he is driven more by being in a comfortable situation toiling in relative quiet than he ever was in having a single-minded focus in winning. I think that deep down, he regarded winning a ring as nice to have, and not a necessity to cement his legacy, and if that's true, I'd bet as he's getting closer to the end, he's starting to rethink that approach.

All this said, regardless of location, family atmosphere, and all that, I just don't regard the Angels as being a top destination for top tier free agents at this point in time, especially since none of the contracts I mentioned were signed even within the past decade.

As for Detroit: I just don't think many guys, especially latin guys, would choose to come here for eight or ten years at a stretch just because we have decent suburbs, nice weather three months a year, and fishing and hunting up north. In addition to being a city with a decades-long reputation as being a dump, even despite the past couple of years, the organization has in their recent history the act of blowing it all up, and it's hard to get a guy to gamble on committing that many years to come here with that still in the rear-view mirror.

Now, that said: I do believe that signing one guy, the right guy, could single-handedly do wonders to turn it around, at least for a little while. Twenty years ago it was the signing of Ivan Rodriguez that jump-started it. Signing Skubal to a long term deal next winter could very well serve the same purpose. If we put our money where our mouth is, then all of a sudden, top tier guys would see that we are serious about spending and contending, and that would instantly make us that much more attractive an option to commit to. But I would be surprised if we managed to do that this winter by signing someone like Kyle Tucker to break that seal. I put the odds against that as being at least 100 to 1.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

... Now, that said: I do believe that signing one guy, the right guy, could single-handedly do wonders to turn it around, at least for a little while. Twenty years ago it was the signing of Ivan Rodriguez that jump-started it. Signing Skubal to a long term deal next winter could very well serve the same purpose. If we put our money ...

... I would be surprised if we managed to do that this winter by signing someone like Kyle Tucker to break that seal. I put the odds against that as being at least 100 to 1.

1) I like how this was put... and agree with it.

For the most part that is...

2) Harris can certainly "put money where the Tigers' mouth is"...

But this is Boras. I believe absolutely, 100%, that the contract Skubal ends up with is going to be too rich for Detroit. Both in years and in $$$'s. Simply put, a bigger market, whether that is the Yankees or the Mets or the Phillies or...

Whomever, is going to price Skubal out of Detroit.

I would be surprised if we somehow get Skubal to stay in Detroit beyond 2026. Not impossible... but I believe that also is a 10-1 shot.

3) Which is different than your 100-1 on Tucker. But... then I go back to your earlier statement that signing one guy can do wonders for this team. It could be Skubal, that would be great... I just seriously doubt it. And even if the odds are 100-1 on Bregman or Tucker signing with Detroit, or 1000-1 that we sign both... I put them in the same basket of "signing the right guy". I think these are the right guys to provide veteran leadership to this team. I think they are the right guys that specifically fall into Harris's philosophy of "controlling the strike zone". I think they are the right guys that have championship level knowledge and wisdom that they can impart upon the rest of the team.

4) Pitchers break down. Maybe Skubal is Verlander-esque or Nolan Ryan-esque and is just a pitching machine that never breaks down.

It's just not the bet I want to make.

I prefer Tucker and Bregman, both, however unrealistic that may be.

I think they are the right guys to go after.

IMO.

[1984Echoes]

PS:

If we have a chance at signing Skubal to a long-term contract...

I think those chances are SIGNIFICANTLY higher if we sign Bregman or Tucker, or both, this winter.

IMO.

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

PS:

If we have a chance at signing Skubal to a long-term contract...

I think those chances are SIGNIFICANTLY higher if we sign Bregman or Tucker, or both, this winter.

IMO.

I respectfully disagree.  The team that is competitive and has the best offer gets him. We benefit from being a playoff team, but he will chase the best deal. Being a union leader and with the Boras Corp basically ensures that.

[buddha]

10 hours ago, romad1 said:

So many great parts.  I think the idea of his adoptive brother Sir Kay only being worried that he wouldn't be brave in the final battle against Mordred is touching.   We aren't all mighty.  Some of us are Merry and Pippin.   Also, If you are rolling into a battle Carmina Burana is a good way to get there.  

 

oh fortuna...

[buddha]

fellas, every city in america has nice suburbs.

detroit is not a nice city.  its "fine."  but it has crap weather, is not a party town, is not a destination, and has high taxes.  no one is coming to detroit unless the franchise is close to a championship and is overpaying massively.

i like the tigers being more of the rays than the dodgers.  however, i do think they should have ponied up at the deadline this year and should have overpaid for bregman because they only have skubal for one more year.

[papalawrence]

In the post season interview I saw with Skubal, he made it clear he believes a teams goal should be to win the WS. I do believe he is paying close attention to Detroit's off season moves. They did very little at the deadline. He was at the AZ fall league watching and posted 2 words about McGonigle "he's ready." I do think he likes Detroit and if Detroit matches offers I believe he would be open to staying. I just don't see Harris going that route

[Tenacious D]

Let’s not forget that Skubal pitched 6 innings in Game 5.  Then sat home and watched Yamamoto pitch in two consecutive WS games so his team could win the series.

When Tarik can go 7 innings in an elimination game, I’ll take his desires a bit more seriously.

[SoCalTiger]

4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

1) I like how this was put... and agree with it.

For the most part that is...

2) Harris can certainly "put money where the Tigers' mouth is"...

But this is Boras. I believe absolutely, 100%, that the contract Skubal ends up with is going to be too rich for Detroit. Both in years and in $$$'s. Simply put, a bigger market, whether that is the Yankees or the Mets or the Phillies or...

Whomever, is going to price Skubal out of Detroit.

I would be surprised if we somehow get Skubal to stay in Detroit beyond 2026. Not impossible... but I believe that also is a 10-1 shot.

3) Which is different than your 100-1 on Tucker. But... then I go back to your earlier statement that signing one guy can do wonders for this team. It could be Skubal, that would be great... I just seriously doubt it. And even if the odds are 100-1 on Bregman or Tucker signing with Detroit, or 1000-1 that we sign both... I put them in the same basket of "signing the right guy". I think these are the right guys to provide veteran leadership to this team. I think they are the right guys that specifically fall into Harris's philosophy of "controlling the strike zone". I think they are the right guys that have championship level knowledge and wisdom that they can impart upon the rest of the team.

4) Pitchers break down. Maybe Skubal is Verlander-esque or Nolan Ryan-esque and is just a pitching machine that never breaks down.

It's just not the bet I want to make.

I prefer Tucker and Bregman, both, however unrealistic that may be.

I think they are the right guys to go after.

IMO.

So pay Tucker the 400 million instead of Skubal. That works for me. 

[SoCalTiger]

6 hours ago, chasfh said:

Houston is one of the highest payroll teams, and guys like to go where other players are getting paid because that means the team pays. They also have rings in their very recent history, and that's very attractive to players looking for rings of there own.

As for Anaheim, like Detroit, they've had to overpay and overpromise to get top tier talent to sign there. They overpaid Rendon to go there (and, as it turns out, he doesn't even like baseball); and they were the only team on the west coast to promise Ohtani he could pitch. They also threw way too much money and years, probably unnecessarily, at Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. They also threw way too much money at Justin Upton, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Mo Vaughn, and certainly didn't get their money's worth from any of them.

If anything, I think they lucked out with Mike Trout already being there. I have long believed he is driven more by being in a comfortable situation toiling in relative quiet than he ever was in having a single-minded focus in winning. I think that deep down, he regarded winning a ring as nice to have, and not a necessity to cement his legacy, and if that's true, I'd bet as he's getting closer to the end, he's starting to rethink that approach.

All this said, regardless of location, family atmosphere, and all that, I just don't regard the Angels as being a top destination for top tier free agents at this point in time, especially since none of the contracts I mentioned were signed even within the past decade.

As for Detroit: I just don't think many guys, especially latin guys, would choose to come here for eight or ten years at a stretch just because we have decent suburbs, nice weather three months a year, and fishing and hunting up north. In addition to being a city with a decades-long reputation as being a dump, even despite the past couple of years, the organization has in their recent history the act of blowing it all up, and it's hard to get a guy to gamble on committing that many years to come here with that still in the rear-view mirror.

Now, that said: I do believe that signing one guy, the right guy, could single-handedly do wonders to turn it around, at least for a little while. Twenty years ago it was the signing of Ivan Rodriguez that jump-started it. Signing Skubal to a long term deal next winter could very well serve the same purpose. If we put our money where our mouth is, then all of a sudden, top tier guys would see that we are serious about spending and contending, and that would instantly make us that much more attractive an option to commit to. But I would be surprised if we managed to do that this winter by signing someone like Kyle Tucker to break that seal. I put the odds against that as being at least 100 to 1.

You really need to stop making so much sense. I guess Houston is a winner. Anaheim is bad because or Moreno as you have so eloquently stated. But it should be and easily could be a big draw. I be every PBO drools at the chance once Arniw sells. 

But we are Detroit so let's hope we get the player to come. It just feels like Bregman will sign here. Not sure how I feel about that but he does fit many needs on the field and off. We probably overpay a bit and sign him and keeping Skubal might be part of his request.

[Tenacious D]

13 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

You really need to stop making so much sense. I guess Houston is a winner. Anaheim is bad because or Moreno as you have so eloquently stated. But it should be and easily could be a big draw. I be every PBO drools at the chance once Arniw sells. 

But we are Detroit so let's hope we get the player to come. It just feels like Bregman will sign here. Not sure how I feel about that but he does fit many needs on the field and off. We probably overpay a bit and sign him and keeping Skubal might be part of his request.

Houston?  The team that had a cheating scandal that alienated many MLB players?  Also the same team that was too cheap to re-sign their homegrown superstars (Springer, Correa, Bregman) and who were knocked out of the playoffs the last two seasons by the Tigers?

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, buddha said:

fellas, every city in america has nice suburbs.

detroit is not a nice city.  its "fine."  but it has crap weather, is not a party town, is not a destination, and has high taxes.  no one is coming to detroit unless the franchise is close to a championship and is overpaying massively.

i like the tigers being more of the rays than the dodgers.  however, i do think they should have ponied up at the deadline this year and should have overpaid for bregman because they only have skubal for one more year.

I don’t think Bregman would want to have to hit in Comerica Park 81 games a year for the rest of his life. His career slash line here is .242/.309/.475, which runs 17% below his career average. If he has designs to get into the Hall of Fame—and I don’t see why he wouldn’t—he’ll probably want better back nine stats than that.

[chasfh]

9 hours ago, papalawrence said:

In the post season interview I saw with Skubal, he made it clear he believes a teams goal should be to win the WS. I do believe he is paying close attention to Detroit's off season moves. They did very little at the deadline. He was at the AZ fall league watching and posted 2 words about McGonigle "he's ready." I do think he likes Detroit and if Detroit matches offers I believe he would be open to staying. I just don't see Harris going that route

I love this post except for the final sentence. Harris has not yet been able to establish the limits he will go to in the free agent market to bring top talent aboard. Sure, he didn’t get Soto or Ohtani. But remember, Detroit has never been a top destination for those guys during his tenure. He’s still working on building us up to being at that level, as much as he can. The time has not been right, either in the team he could field around a top tier guy, or in the perception among top tier guys of Detroit as a real destination. I think we’re closer than ever, and maybe Harris makes the move this winter that gets us firmly into that conversation. But we just haven’t been that yet.

[chasfh]

8 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

So pay Tucker the 400 million instead of Skubal. That works for me. 

No, thank you. I like Tucker, maybe, for 7-or-8/sub-300 with team options, but definitely not 10+/400+ with player options. Too injured too recently for Sotobucks and Sotoyears.

[gehringer_2]

12 hours ago, buddha said:

and has high taxes. 

just curious were you get that one. Michigan state taxes rank below average and the income tax in Detroit for a suburbanite is all of 1.2%. Not FLA or Tx but cheaper than a lot of places.

Edited 19 hours ago by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

just curious were you get that one. Michigan state taxes rank below average and the income tax in Detroit for a suburbanite is all of 1.2%. Not FLA or Tx but cheaper than a lot of places.

What are property taxes in or around Detroit?

People tend to forget to take into account property as another form of tax.

Property Taxes in New York, New Jersey, and California, for example, are wildly higher than PA/ FL... for example.

I don't know what they are in Texas or Michigan though... for comparison.

[1984Echoes]

IE: New Jersey: $450K home = $12K per year in property taxes. Same $450K home in PA = $6K property tax.

As a ballpark figure that is...