Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[1984Echoes]

5 minutes ago, buddha said:

but this guy isnt 99 other guys.  its your best player. 

that said, we'll never know because were not privy to all the information, and it is just as likely that this is driven by boras as by the tigers.  its equally as likely that boras told skubal "the tigers are likely to come in at $19 to get to a number like $25, so we'll come in at $32."

as you pointed out, DD and others hate this process because it makes you go in and tell your player how less valuable they are than they think they are.  better to resolve it out of "court" than have to publicly denounce your talent.

The problem, as usual, is...

Boras.

[oblong]

Skubal having Boras as an agent tells me he means business and understands the Tigers mean business too.  Skubal isn’t fragile. He knows what the Tigers are doing.  It’s fine. These numbers and this process will have no impact on his future with the team. It relates to 2026 only. Peoole watch too many movies. 

[tiger2022]

I believe the Tigers know there is 0% chance their FA offer to Skubal will even be remotely competitive to offers from the Mets, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Rangers, Giants, etc.  

They know Skubal will not sign with the Tigers because he wants to win and the Tigers aren't going to spend for top tier FA's like the other teams I mentioned.  Their payroll is so much lower than the other teams and that affects the players that the team can put around him.  

For the Tigers or any team with a low payroll to compete, things have to fall in place perfectly for them.  And the last 2 years have been best case scenario for the Tigers.  Look at this off season: the Tigers have done basically nothing to improve.  

[chasfh]

On 1/8/2026 at 12:13 PM, Sports_Freak said:

Not even gonna bother. Harris does no wrong in your eyes. If Avila made the same moves, you would be fine with them. Right?

This is your answer when I ask you to prove your wild statement that was obviously untrue? Huh.

This is clearly personal for you. I have no interest in this anymore.

Edited yesterday at 01:47 PM by chasfh

[chasfh]

21 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

That too.  I don't know why people get worked up about random power rankings based on opinions.  

… and that come out in January.

[gehringer_2]

8 hours ago, oblong said:

Skubal having Boras as an agent tells me he means business and understands the Tigers mean business too.  Skubal isn’t fragile. He knows what the Tigers are doing.  It’s fine. These numbers and this process will have no impact on his future with the team. It relates to 2026 only. Peoole watch too many movies. 

OTOH, players do get PO'd at their team over negotiations in general and have that motivate them to go somewhere else. We just need to look at the case of Scherzer in our own recent history but it's more likely to be over ham-handed public or private statements. The arbitration process itself  is getting to be old hat at this point. Maybe when the process was new and players were unprepared for how it was going to work it was more of risk -- or someone on the team side is just obnoxious during the process etc. A owner or GM with an axe to grind with a player can always find a way to make a player mad easily enough whether inside or outside of the arb process.

[chasfh]

I don’t think the Tigers necessarily low-balled Skubal with an offer of $19MM. They might have considered $19.8MM out of respect for Skubal’s accomplishments, a number that would have made him the highest arb award to a pitcher to date no matter what. But it’s not as though they truly low-balled him with a number under $15MM or something. The Skubal ask of $32MM is way, way more out of line versus precedent than the Tigers’ number.

I kind of doubt they informally discussed beforehand what they would offer, and assuming they did not, I could see the Tigers thinking we’ll offer $19, they’ll ask for $25 or so, we won’t mind losing that, it’ll be fine. Instead, we have this, and all the narrative attended to it.

I understand the Harris regime is a file-and-trial regime, but I don’t think that necessarily means they can’t negotiate a mid-point number. I think it’s possible the Skubal camp would be nervous enough about a $19 award that they would accept a $26 or $27 settlement. A truism of negotiation is that literally everything that goes before it factors into the outcome, so it’s reasonable to assume that any long-term deal Skubal signs would be a lot higher if he made $26MM this year than if he made $19MM. That would be incentive enough for him to accept a midpoint settlement.

[gehringer_2]

23 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don’t think the Tigers necessarily low-balled Skubal with an offer of $19MM. ....

I don't think these numbers come out of thin air. You present a brief to the arbiter (it's a panel but I'm going to use singular anyway) - your arg for why your number is correct. The Tigers no doubt have a well laid out story that carefully works through all the comps and using perfectly reasonable logic, gets them exactly to $19M, and that is the set of assumptions and logic they will present to the arbiter. Of course Skubal and Boras will have done the same homework but with a different set of base axioms, and the logic there will lead to inexorably to $32M. Each side then hopes the base axioms the arbiter picks to start with are closer to the ones they used than the ones the other side used.

[tiger2022]

I just don't see how Skubal even entertains the idea of signing a long term contract with the Tigers.  He wants to win a WS title.  

Everything will need to play out perfectly for that to happen in Detroit.  A penny pinching owner and a GM who is petrified to make any moves to try to improve the team doesn't play out well for the long term.

Skubal doesn't care about how maybe the guys in AA will work out and become competent mlb players in the next 4 to 7 years... by that time the core of players on this current iteration of the Tigers will be playing somewhere else.  Can this group get it done without adding talent to the roster?  I don't think it can and Skubal knows that too.

"The World Series should be the standard from everyone in the organization" comment he made sure sounds like he lacks confidence in the front office.  

He'll be gone by the trade deadline.

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, tiger2022 said:

He'll be gone by the trade deadline.

 

can't argue with anything but this last line. If they are in contention they keep him. If they trade him when they are headed for the playoffs they might as well burn down the ballpark as well.

[tiger2022]

11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

can't argue with anything but this last line. If they are in contention they keep him. If they trade him when they are headed for the playoffs they might as well burn down the ballpark as well.

 

They won't trade him in that situation.  But if they are 6 games out, what happens?

Harris will want to trade him.

Ilitch will probably be okay with trading him.

 

[Tenacious D]

3 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

 

They won't trade him in that situation.  But if they are 6 games out, what happens?

Harris will want to trade him.

Ilitch will probably be okay with trading him.

 

Worked out pretty well the last time we sold at the deadline.

#pitchingchaos

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

... He'll be gone by the trade deadline.

Actually...

Skubal will NOT be traded...

Unless Harris receives an offer that is GREATER than the 1st round comp pick we would receive for losing him as a free agent. Think: Kevin McGonigle.

If a team offers less than the equivalent of a 1st round comp pick... then why would Harris even bother with a trade? And sometimes, even if a team is scuffling at the trade deadline... they could go on a bender and make the playoffs anyways (see: 2024).

So why would Harris trade Skubal when there's a chance of a season ending win-bender (after the trade deadline) after the trade deadline AND get a 1st round comp pick... when he hasn't received an offer good enough to toss that possibility off to the side?

IMO.

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

Actually...

Skubal will NOT be traded...

Unless Harris receives an offer that is GREATER than the 1st round comp pick we would receive for losing him as a free agent. Think: Kevin McGonigle.

If a team offers less than the equivalent of a 1st round comp pick... then why would Harris even bother with a trade? And sometimes, even if a team is scuffling at the trade deadline... they could go on a bender and make the playoffs anyways (see: 2024).

So why would Harris trade Skubal when there's a chance of a season ending win-bender (after the trade deadline) after the trade deadline AND get a 1st round comp pick... when he hasn't received an offer good enough to toss that possibility off to the side?

IMO.

Don’t use McGonigle as a comp. Complete fluke that the Tigers got him and that he ended up as good as he is.  Think typical 2nd rounder as what we’d likely yield.  

[chasfh]

6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't think these numbers come out of thin air. You present a brief to the arbiter (it's a panel but I'm going to use singular anyway) - your arg for why your number is correct. The Tigers no doubt have a well laid out story that carefully works through all the comps and using perfectly reasonable logic, gets them exactly to $19M, and that is the set of assumptions and logic they will present to the arbiter. Of course Skubal and Boras will have done the same homework but with a different set of base axioms, and the logic there will lead to inexorably to $32M. Each side then hopes the base axioms the arbiter picks to start with are closer to the ones they used than the ones the other side used.

I too don't think these numbers come out of thin air.

[tiger2022]

2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Worked out pretty well the last time we sold at the deadline.

#pitchingchaos

Hope you're kidding.

That isn't a good strategy.  Hope everything falls in place perfectly and get super lucky?

[Tenacious D]

5 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

Hope you're kidding.

That isn't a good strategy.  Hope everything falls in place perfectly and get super lucky?

I am mostly.  The only way they would deal him in the season if the team falls off the rails.