Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Shelton]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

how did adding paddack and morton NOT make the team worse?

what were the stats of the guys they replaced?  and what were the stats of the guys they could have traded for but didnt?  you'd have to know both of those.

it appears harris has set up an organization that has done well in creating an environment to develop young players.  that means a lot.  in the long run, that will be more important than short term success in qualifying for the wild card two years in a row.

but his trade deadline moves hurt the team.  youre straining credulity by saying paddack and morton didnt hurt the overall results.

As you said, you’d have to know what the internal/external alternatives were, as well as the cost of the external alternatives. No one knows this except Scott Harris and his team. But the comment about hurting the team implies that he took the current team and then made a move that reduced its effectiveness relative to what it was before the move. So, comments regarding whether he hurt the team or not, to me, can only be relative to existing team, not to hypothetical other moves that maybe could have been made instead that would have been better at similar or nominally higher cost. 
 

So, as for the internal options, that’s also hard to identify. And the knock-on effects of using those internal options in place of those two guys (ignoring finnegan) is also hard to identify. 
 

The easiest argument for the “hurt the team by the moves” position is that Montero and melton would have been better used in those slots. However, I don’t think melton was an option. Maybe that’s deserving of criticism but I think he had an innings cap and they needed to stretch that. But ignoring that, and just saying use melton, then you’ve got to replace melton innings with whatever worst bullpen/aaa arm wasn’t used. Same with Montero. And it’s not like melton and Montero would have been locks to perform better. To me, it’s a toss up. I can’t prove it either way, but neither can anyone else. In my opinion it is not as simple as pointing to poor performance by two specific guys and declaring that it hurt the team. 
 

To be clear, I am not disputing that these two guys performed poorly over the course of their short tigers tenure. 
 

There are a lot of other players you can point to that also failed during that period. But the tigers needed innings to get to the end of the season. I don’t think they had them in reserve. They didn’t need much more than that. Indeed, it turns out that all they needed was a tranch of fairly bad innings! 
 

Finally, both Paddack and Morton ultimately pitched worse for the tigers than they had for their prior team. I don’t think anyone really expects to get a substantially different performance over the final two months relative to the prior four months.  
 

Even then, Morton started off pretty strong for the tigers, following a couple strong months for the orioles. From June through August he threw 80 innings with a low 4 era. There was little evidence as we entered September that Scott Harris’s decision to add Morton a month earlier had made the team worse, especially given that we needed dem innings.
 

Similarly, Chris paddack was a 1 war pitcher for the twins at the time of the trade. Nothing amazing, but an easy 4/5 starter. He gave us 30 innings in his first 6 starts, gave up too many homers in a couple starts, but we did go 4-2 in those games.  
 

So, that’s why I take issue with the idea that Scott Harris made moves that hurt the team. I think it misses the point of those moves, and relies too heavily on hindsight and vibes due to the September collapse by almost everyone wearing the uniform.

This was a long explanation to your question. I regret the length. Short answer is that I don’t think it’s a given that the internal options would have been better and that we would have finished with more wins had we not made the trades. 
 

 

[gehringer_2]

54 minutes ago, Shelton said:

. Same with Montero. And it’s not like melton and Montero would have been locks to perform better. T

actually, I'm not sure who besides Melton is the right comparison because Keider was still pitching pretty regularly in a swing role after Morton arrived.  He still got 6 starts overall in Aug and Sept plus some long relief appearance.

Edited yesterday at 09:50 PM by gehringer_2

[Edman85]

I think the Tigers caught some pitch design lightning in a bottle in 2024 and the league caught up a bit in 2025. So when they added some flawed pitchers in hope of a fix, they ended up throwing meat because the league was ready.

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

I give the players, manager and coaches credit for the comeback and blame for the collapse. I dont give Harris credit for the comeback because he did very little to help the team. The same way I blame him for the collapse, he did very little to prevent it. It was his job to give Hinch talented players for success. Harris failed, as has been discussed for months.

The Tigers were 20-16 immediately after the trade. That's a .556 winning pct, more than good enough to get us into the playoffs. Harris gets zero credit for that playoff-making-worthy performance.

Then the team went into a 3-13 tailspin in the final 16 games with the exact same team. Harris gets 100% of the blame for that collapse that led to nothing more than a wild card bid and series win.

Do I have that straight?

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, oblong said:

Do you realize that post is as much about Cleveland as it is Detroit?

They surged more than the Tigers collapsed.

Also Harris's fault, totes obvs ...

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Harris knew exactly what was going to happen in both cases.  He thinks outside the box.  He plays 3D chess.  The rest of the league is playing checkers.  

This post could not be more wrong if it were written by McCosky.

Harris plays 4D chess, not 3D. Yeesh.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

At least they weren't the 1964 Phillies, blowing a 61/2 game lead with 12 games left. Of course there wasn't divisions or Wild Cards in those bad old days

How about those '87 Jays, too? Losing seven straight to cough up the division. Best collapse of my lifetime.

[Sports_Freak]

8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The Tigers were 20-16 immediately after the trade. That's a .556 winning pct, more than good enough to get us into the playoffs. Harris gets zero credit for that playoff-making-worthy performance.

Then the team went into a 3-13 tailspin in the final 16 games with the exact same team. Harris gets 100% of the blame for that collapse that led to nothing more than a wild card bid and series win.

Do I have that straight?

Finally...correct. You're coming around. Bring back Al Avila? 😆😆

[Sports_Freak]

6 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

I give the players, manager and coaches credit for the comeback and blame for the collapse. I dont give Harris credit for the comeback because he did very little to help the team. The same way I blame him for the collapse, he did very little to prevent it. It was his job to give Hinch talented players for success. Harris failed, as has been discussed for months.

 

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The Tigers were 20-16 immediately after the trade. That's a .556 winning pct, more than good enough to get us into the playoffs. Harris gets zero credit for that playoff-making-worthy performance.

Then the team went into a 3-13 tailspin in the final 16 games with the exact same team. Harris gets 100% of the blame for that collapse that led to nothing more than a wild card bid and series win.

Do I have that straight?

Did you even read my post you responded to? I give the players, coaches and manager credit for the comeback in '24 and blame for the '25 collapse. And Harris shares the blame, since he's responsible for getting talent for Hinch to use. He failed miserably. Sorry...

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, buddha said:

how did adding paddack and morton NOT make the team worse?

what were the stats of the guys they replaced?  and what were the stats of the guys they could have traded for but didnt?  you'd have to know both of those.

it appears harris has set up an organization that has done well in creating an environment to develop young players.  that means a lot.  in the long run, that will be more important than short term success in qualifying for the wild card two years in a row.

but his trade deadline moves hurt the team.  youre straining credulity by saying paddack and morton didnt hurt the overall results.

More coulda woulda shoulda here.

I mean, if we really want to be fair about Harris's deadline performance last year—I know I do—let's take a look at all seven guys he picked up at the deadline, by fWAR:

• Finnegan: +0.7
• Morton: 0.0
• R. Montero: 0.0
• Sewald: -0.1
• Heuer: -0.1
• Paddack: -0.5
• Dobnak: n/a
• Total: 0.0

So, going by this measure, meaning contributions to wins and losses, Harris's performance was a wash.

Sure, folks can hammer Harris now for not getting a basket of guys who netted out to a high positive WAR, and folks will. And folks can hammer him some more for getting six guys who did not achieve positive WAR and only one guy who did, and folks will. But I wouldn't agree that Harris's pickups were a collective disaster, because by this measure, they didn't lose us any more games than freely available options in house would have, theorietically.

I also wouldn't say that the pickups Harris made was the sole reason we collapsed, especially considering that the same group of hitters who slashed .252/.322.430/108 wRC+ in the first 36 games after the deadline then went on to "hit" .210/.282/.326/70 wRC+ during the final 16-game skid.

[chasfh]

23 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

 

Did you even read my post you responded to? I give the players, coaches and manager credit for the comeback in '24 and blame for the '25 collapse. And Harris shares the blame, since he's responsible for getting talent for Hinch to use. He failed miserably. Sorry...

Doesn't look to me as though Harris is sharing any blame in your view ... 😏

Ahhh, hell, I really shouldn't even be responding. I simply can't take seriously any position stipulating that Harris deserves no credit at all, only blame. Sorry.

 

And for everyone else—no, I'm not saying Harris deserves only credit, no blame. I will say that the credit I think he deserves for putting together the vast improvements to our development, coaching, data science, prospect base, big league roster, etc., across the past three years is obvious to me, but whatever blame he might deserve would depend on my knowing exactly what it was he offered in trade and what he turned down, which I don't. I'm having difficulty dinging him for things he didn't do, such as not trading for this guy or not signing that free agent, when we don't even know whether such trades or offers were even on the table, and how the other sides responded in turn. All we know is what we can see that we can all agree upon seeing.

Edited 23 hours ago by chasfh

[tiger2022]

7 hours ago, Shelton said:

I think you are selling him a bit short here. He did that, sure. He also took over an organization full of “Avila guys” that was pretty terrible. Meadows and Dingler were close to non-prospects. But your point is very good. Taking Avila’s chicken **** and making chicken salad is not just something that happens

 

 

So you're saying a GM has the power to suddenly make awful players good?  When they hired Harris, Dingler, Skubal, Greene, etc suddenly learned how to play baseball.  

That's not even remotely close to being true in any sort of universe...including drug induced opium dens.

[Tigermojo]

They just said on the news the Tigers offered Skubal $19.8 million in negotiations before ending up at $19 million arbitration offer.

[Stormin]

3 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

In 2036, when Baltimore blows a 10 game divisional lead, the entire baseball world will say it's the 2nd biggest collapse sine the Detroit Tigers of 2025. They wont talk about Scott Harris, the manager or the Tigers GM from last century.

I mentioned the past, because you called the Tigers second half a "historic collapse".  I mentioned names because you stated the second half of 2025 is how Harris will be remembered.  For the record:

• 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers: Blew a 10-game lead to the New York Giants in September, famously losing the pennant on Bobby Thomson's "Shot Heard 'Round the World".
• 2011 Boston Red Sox: Lost a 9-game AL Wild Card lead to the Tampa Bay Rays in September, failing to even make the playoffs.
• 2011 Atlanta Braves: Lost a 7.5-game NL Wild Card lead to the St. Louis Cardinals, who then won the World Series.
• 1969 Chicago Cubs: Held a 9-game lead over the New York Mets in August but lost the division to them.
• 1978 Boston Red Sox: After leading the Yankees by 14 games in July, they lost the AL East on the final day of the season.
• 2012 Texas Rangers: Led the AL West by four games with nine left but lost the division to Oakland. 
• 2009 Detroit Tigers: Led the AL Central by seven games in September and lost the Division to the Twins in a one game playoff. 

For the teams listed above, there was a significant consequence for the team that lost the lead - a team missed the postseason.  The Tigers still made the playoffs, beat the Guardians, and were one run away from beating the Mariners.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Doesn't look to me as though Harris is sharing any blame in your view ... 😏

Ahhh, hell, I really shouldn't even be responding. I simply can't take seriously any position stipulating that Harris deserves no credit at all, only blame. Sorry.

 

And for everyone else—no, I'm not saying Harris deserves only credit, no blame. I will say that the credit I think he deserves for putting together the vast improvements to our development, coaching, data science, prospect base, big league roster, etc., across the past three years is obvious to me, but whatever blame he might deserve would depend on my knowing exactly what it was he offered in trade and what he turned down, which I don't. I'm having difficulty dinging him for things he didn't do, such as not trading for this guy or not signing that free agent, when we don't even know whether such trades or offers were even on the table, and how the other sides responded in turn. All we know is what we can see that we can all agree upon seeing.

Most of it is obvious to me too, except for the part about "big league roster".  That is not apparent to me.  I am hoping it will become more apparent soon.  

[casimir]

9 hours ago, Shelton said:

Seems like if his moves at a certain point in time caused the team to become worse, they would have become worse at that point in time. Maybe his moves kept them from being 12-16 in August instead.

Maybe not every high variance set of results needs to have a distinct cause assigned. 

That’s no fun.

[casimir]

8 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

The quarter zips are a problem though.

Quarter zips are comfortable, especially fleece ones over a polo in the wintertime.

[Tiger337]

23 minutes ago, casimir said:

Quarter zips are comfortable, especially fleece ones over a polo in the wintertime.

I wear quarter zips too.  I was just setting up my striped polo reference.  

[Sports_Freak]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

Doesn't look to me as though Harris is sharing any blame in your view ... 😏

Ahhh, hell, I really shouldn't even be responding. I simply can't take seriously any position stipulating that Harris deserves no credit at all, only blame. Sorry.

 

And for everyone else—no, I'm not saying Harris deserves only credit, no blame. I will say that the credit I think he deserves for putting together the vast improvements to our development, coaching, data science, prospect base, big league roster, etc., across the past three years is obvious to me, but whatever blame he might deserve would depend on my knowing exactly what it was he offered in trade and what he turned down, which I don't. I'm having difficulty dinging him for things he didn't do, such as not trading for this guy or not signing that free agent, when we don't even know whether such trades or offers were even on the table, and how the other sides responded in turn. All we know is what we can see that we can all agree upon seeing.

Harris has done a very good job building up our farm system. I've said that several times. And some of the other stuff you mentioned that the average fan never sees or thinks about.

My point, for the last month or so, is he hasn't done much to improve the major league team. What were his best moves? Vierling, McKinstry, Torres and Flaherty with Finnegan at the deadline last year? Thats about it, once his prospects start producing, we can then say he did a good job building a ML roster. If they flame out? Then he is a total failure. I guess some fans may be happy he rebuilt the clubhouse or improved our analytical department. Those are all things that are pretty useless to the average fan.

And I agree...drop it. We don't agree and I doubt we ever will. Heck, I remember people supporting and defending Brad Ausmus. 😆

[buddha]

6 hours ago, chasfh said:

More coulda woulda shoulda here.

I mean, if we really want to be fair about Harris's deadline performance last year—I know I do—let's take a look at all seven guys he picked up at the deadline, by fWAR:

• Finnegan: +0.7
• Morton: 0.0
• R. Montero: 0.0
• Sewald: -0.1
• Heuer: -0.1
• Paddack: -0.5
• Dobnak: n/a
• Total: 0.0

So, going by this measure, meaning contributions to wins and losses, Harris's performance was a wash.

Sure, folks can hammer Harris now for not getting a basket of guys who netted out to a high positive WAR, and folks will. And folks can hammer him some more for getting six guys who did not achieve positive WAR and only one guy who did, and folks will. But I wouldn't agree that Harris's pickups were a collective disaster, because by this measure, they didn't lose us any more games than freely available options in house would have, theorietically.

I also wouldn't say that the pickups Harris made was the sole reason we collapsed, especially considering that the same group of hitters who slashed .252/.322.430/108 wRC+ in the first 36 games after the deadline then went on to "hit" .210/.282/.326/70 wRC+ during the final 16-game skid.

"theoretically" is doing a LOT of work there.

i'll believe you want to be fair to harris when you give him fair criticism for bringing in paddack and morton.  

if the fancy stats say a pitcher who threw 40 innings and had an ERA over 7 is a 0.0 player and didnt cost his team anything, then i question that stats' usefulness.

his WAR was -.8, fwiw.  hard to achieve in only 40 innings.  i mean, even chris paddack wasnt that bad...

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Most of it is obvious to me too, except for the part about "big league roster".  That is not apparent to me.  I am hoping it will become more apparent soon.  

I think you’d agree that the big league roster has been in much better shape since 2024 than it was in August 2022, or for any of the five-pus years before that. That doesn’t mean the big league roster is in its finished state as per the plan. It is obviously not. But it is certainly better than it was, and that’s because of Harris, and it will continue to get better until we clearly see it’s getting worse. It was never going to be like flipping a switch—you know, trash in August 2022, done and in World Series shape by March 2023. It was always going to be a process, it was always going to take time because of the focus on development instead of purchase, and that was one of the first things Harris talked about in his first press conference.

[casimir]

11 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I wear quarter zips too.  I was just setting up my striped polo reference.  

Why not wear both?

[Stormin]

Why are so many reporters calling the Tigers a "File - and - Trial" team when the Tigers have had only 2 players (Michael Fulmer and Casey Mize) in the past 20+ years not agree to a salary before submitting arbitration numbers, and one those (Mize) resulted in a negotiated settlement before reaching the arbitrators?

I would think Boras is more likely to take a "File - and - Trial" stance.  He wants to establish precedent for other clients.

Edited 5 hours ago by Stormin

[oblong]

Not sure if this has been brought up here but McCosky had a thing in the News saying that the Tigers were prepared to negotiate  on a deal, that the $19M was their first offer but Boras "shut that down" and was only interested in going to arbitration.  He says that's why they filed $19M but I think the reasons outlined earlier in this thread are more true.  Of course I'm not sure where his sources come from.

What interests me more about this story is the unwillingness to negotiate a deal.  

[Edman85]

19 minutes ago, Stormin said:

Why are so many reporters calling the Tigers a "File - and - Trial" team when the Tigers have had only 2 players (Michael Fulmer and Casey Mize) in the past 20+ years not agree to a salary before submitting arbitration numbers, and one those (Mize) resulted in a negotiated settlement before reaching the arbitrators?

I would think Boras is more likely to take a "File - and - Trial" stance.  He wants to establish precedent for other clients.

Tigers have only been "File and Trial" since Harris took over. And Mize was technically a loophole because there was an option year tacked on.