Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Stormin]

10 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Tigers have only been "File and Trial" since Harris took over. And Mize was technically a loophole because there was an option year tacked on.

I have read numerous reports stating exactly what you have said.  I doubt Harris has ever publicly stated that the Tigers are a "File - and - Trial" team. I doubt Harris ever said Mize was a loophole exception.   Mize is the only previous case to reach arbitration under Harris and that case was settled.  To me, it seems like reporters are just making stuff up.

Edited yesterday at 05:51 PM by Stormin

[Tiger337]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

I think you’d agree that the big league roster has been in much better shape since 2024 than it was in August 2022

Sure, but it's still mostly players that were acquired from the previous administration.   Nobody can say with certainty how much those players would have progressed under a different GM (and I'm not just talking about Avila).  I would think that Harris had some influence on the development, but it's impossible to know how much.  His acquisitions at the major league level have not particularly impressed me so far.  

[Stormin]

Ken Rosenthal has an article in the Athletic that states the Tigers made an initial offer of $19.8M to Skubal and were willing to go higher than $20M, but Boras and company never made a counteroffer.

Edited yesterday at 07:14 PM by Stormin

[Shelton]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Tigers have only been "File and Trial" since Harris took over. And Mize was technically a loophole because there was an option year tacked on.

Doesn’t really matter, but I think they switched to file and trial late in Avila’s tenure. Of course, because no one wants to go to “trial,” we never actually got to the point of “filing” with anyone until Mize last year. 

I think it’s a good system, personally. 

[1984Echoes]

14 hours ago, buddha said:

"theoretically" is doing a LOT of work there.

i'll believe you want to be fair to harris when you give him fair criticism for bringing in paddack and morton.  

if the fancy stats say a pitcher who threw 40 innings and had an ERA over 7 is a 0.0 player and didnt cost his team anything, then i question that stats' usefulness.

his WAR was -.8, fwiw.  hard to achieve in only 40 innings.  i mean, even chris paddack wasnt that bad...

Now try Shane Bieber and/or Zack Littell...

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Sure, but it's still mostly players that were acquired from the previous administration.   Nobody can say with certainty how much those players would have progressed under a different GM (and I'm not just talking about Avila).  I would think that Harris had some influence on the development, but it's impossible to know how much.  His acquisitions at the major league level have not particularly impressed me so far.  

I'm just basing my assessment on what I see now versus what I saw before, and if not racking my brain for reasons to doubt it or explain it away makes me a slappy, I guess I'll wear it. In my opinion, Occam's Razor applies here. Let everybody else's mileage differ for all I care.

[tiger2022]

I don't think GMs have a magic switch that makes players good suddenly.  Players either have the talent or they don't.  Some just take longer to become successful, if ever.  Avila had a bunch of very high draft picks and those guys started playing better once he left.  Harris getting hired has nothing to do with those guys turning into better players.

Next, some posters are going to claim it was Harris who made Skubal into a Cy Young winner.  Giving the guy credit for something he had no influence over is silly.  

I'll give him credit for building the farm system to where it is, but as for the big league club...he hasn't done much to improve it.  Maybe the present isn't a priority to him because it doesn't seem like he cares about it.  But GMs are still subordinate to the owner, the guy doling out the money, so I question what Harris can and cannot do as far as spending and signing guys.  

 

[Tenacious D]

If Skubal wins in arbitration, does it lower his trade value?

Does anyone think the Tigers offered a contract similar to what David Price made in arbitration to avoid setting a precedent for a player to earn $20M+?

Do any of you like movies about gladiators?

[gehringer_2]

whatever slight probability remained that Skubal re-signs with the Tigers just evaporated with the Tucker signing.

[chasfh]

8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

whatever slight probability remained that Skubal re-signs with the Tigers just evaporated with the Tucker signing.

How do they relate?

[NorthWoods]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

whatever slight probability remained that Skubal re-signs with the Tigers just evaporated with the Tucker signing.

That along with the slight probability of no strike next year.   My guess is that we're in for a long and bitter strike that will cost many lower paid players their careers and lowered pensions.

I'm now all in for trading Skubal for the best pitching centered package we can get, focus on 28 & 29 since '27 is likely to be a mess if a season even happens.

[Tiger337]

Every time the CBA expires, there is talk about bitterness on both sides are and how the season is going to be lost, but we haven't had a lot season in 30 years other than the Covid season.  Why is this time going to be different?  

[Longgone]

26 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

That along with the slight probability of no strike next year.   My guess is that we're in for a long and bitter strike that will cost many lower paid players their careers and lowered pensions.

Why do you think this? I don't see any huge, must have, hot button issues on either side, like there has been in the past, that would lead to a bitter stand off.

[Stormin]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

How do they relate?

I agree there is a relationship. The Dodgers demonstrated that they will pay whatever it takes to get a player they want.  Tucker's salary plus the corresponding Luxury Tax payments will cost the Dodgers $119 Million next year - $119 Million for one player for one year.  I had hope because the Tigers have enough contracts expiring to pay Skubal $50 Million next year.  Now I fear, if the Dodgers want Skubal, $50 Million a year will not be nearly enough.

Edited 7 hours ago by Stormin

[NorthWoods]

57 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Every time the CBA expires, there is talk about bitterness on both sides are and how the season is going to be lost, but we haven't had a lot season in 30 years other than the Covid season.  Why is this time going to be different?  

True enough and I'm old enough to remember the 1972 strike so I've been around for all of them.  I just get the sense that there enough owners out there willing to hold out for a cap that it could create an extended standoff.   Hard to believe?   Yes, but then again I never would have believed the 2 sides would allow an entire post season to be cancelled.

On the positive side it would seem that the owners offering 2 expansion franchises with the accompanying additional jobs and maybe a permanent 26 man roster spot might be enough to get to a deal.  The strikes in general benefit the top players more than the rank and file, it would seem they would vote their own interests.

[NorthWoods]

Going back to check on the resolution of the 1972 strike and hit this nugget on Wiki, kind of makes for 1967 the year of my 1st heartbreak as a Tigers fan.

One major effect of the uneven schedule was that the Detroit Tigers played one more game than the Boston Red Sox, which enabled Detroit (with a record of 86–70) to win the American League East as Boston (with a record of 85–70) finished 1⁄2 game behind.^[2] 

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, NorthWoods said:

True enough and I'm old enough to remember the 1972 strike so I've been around for all of them. 

Me too.  I was 9 years old and could not comprehend how baseball players could go on strike.  It was a like an end to my baseball innocence.  

[KL2]

1 hour ago, Longgone said:

Why do you think this? I don't see any huge, must have, hot button issues on either side, like there has been in the past, that would lead to a bitter stand off.

I dont know if there will or not

But just off the top of my head

Salary Cap
international draft

free agency

Service time

Decreasing TV money on the horizon

are all huge issues that could easily divide the sides into a long dispute. Thats not to mention there are plenty of reports on about how the association has its only problems between the haves and have nots and who to favor in any negotiating. 

[Shinzaki]

33 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Me too.  I was 9 years old and could not comprehend how baseball players could go on strike.  It was a like an end to my baseball innocence.  

I was 10...I ithought it was stupid...and that the Red Sox were crybabies

[tiger2022]

A lot of people are looking for ways the Tigers can sign Skubal, but he's going to have options and he will be looking for teams that will spend on other players so he has a legit great team behind him.  Is that the Tigers?  No, it's not.  He was never signing with the Tigers.  Just like some fans think the Pirates have a shot to sign Skenes.  Neither of those will ever happen.

[RatkoVarda]

right now in terms of asset allocation, the Tigers have 1 year of Skubal, might be worth 6-8 WAR in 2026 + the 31st pick in 2027. The chances he signs with Det are approaching zero.

it is obvious to me the proactive decision would be to trade him now.

[Shinzaki]

Offer him 6years 40 million per.  When he says no...start taking offers.  Trade him and sign Framber.

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, KL2 said:

I dont know if there will or not

But just off the top of my head

Salary Cap
international draft

free agency

Service time

Decreasing TV money on the horizon

are all huge issues that could easily divide the sides into a long dispute. Thats not to mention there are plenty of reports on about how the association has its only problems between the haves and have nots and who to favor in any negotiating. 

These are mostly old issues that have been proposed, discussed and tweaked for decades. There is no large precipitating issue that should lead to an impasse. We are dealing with human beings, however.

[1984Echoes]

34 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

... The chances he signs with Det are approaching zero.

it is obvious to me the proactive decision would be to trade him now.

Yes.

And agree with this. It was probably true right from the start. Which was why I was pro-trade from the get-go.

But...

We would all want a godfather offer IF he is traded... no subpar package please.

Except... we don't know if those offers are actually out there (as several have pointed out ... Tenacious D?) and that's the fly in the ointment.

If the offers aren't good enough, the fallback is to just keep him for the season and take the comp pick.

However, if we DO receive an offer Harris can't refuse...

[oblong]

He has a limited shelf life.  They all do.  Why give up one of his great years?

If we are being honest, how good do you think he'll be in 2029 and 2030?