Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Shelton]

What a fascinating case. I think each side had good arguments to support their view, and on a three judge panel with fairly flexible guidance, anything can happen. 
 

I’m specifically interested in the precedent set here. The fact that nothing like this had happened before was relevant, but it’s also true that a player having the specific attributes that Skubal had was never presented to a panel. Most of the preceding cases for big money were settlements. 
 

Credit to Skubal and Boras for risking millions argue their position. 

[Tiger337]

6 hours ago, NorthWoods said:

Skubal wins.

As usual.

[Tigermojo]

[Shelton]

If Skenes win a Cy this year, and heads into his first arbitration year, the language of the current CBA appears to indicate that he could demand and win 32 million. 

[Edman85]

10 minutes ago, Shelton said:

If Skenes win a Cy this year, and heads into his first arbitration year, the language of the current CBA appears to indicate that he could demand and win 32 million. 

I don't think that is true. He can only compare to other 3 year guys, unless you found a clause I didn't. 

[Shelton]

31 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I don't think that is true. He can only compare to other 3 year guys, unless you found a clause I didn't. 

This is what I read:

The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary pur-poses, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player's annual service group. This shall not limit the ability of a Player or his representative, because of special accomplishment, to argue the

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equal relevance of salaries of Players without regard to service, and the arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as is deemed appropriate.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, Shelton said:

What a fascinating case. I think each side had good arguments to support their view, and on a three judge panel with fairly flexible guidance, anything can happen. 
 

I’m specifically interested in the precedent set here. The fact that nothing like this had happened before was relevant, but it’s also true that a player having the specific attributes that Skubal had was never presented to a panel. Most of the preceding cases for big money were settlements. 
 

Credit to Skubal and Boras for risking millions argue their position. 

It will be a huge credit to them if/when Skubal makes it thru the '26 season, injury free and with good stats. They're really gambling so he can get that $400 million contract. I dont know if the Tigers offered him an extension or not but if so, they're risking it.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

8 hours ago, buddha said:

the teams still do get to control player costs for the first six years of their major league career, not to mention all the years they are in the minor leagues.  regardless of the outcome of skubal's arb hearing, the tigers will still be paying him less than his market value next season.  the system still works to hold down player salaries, as it was designed to do.

I have no idea how you think this after today's deal. How will this work for small market clubs like the Brewers, Pirates and Rays who pump out good players? They will HAVE to trade their players after three years of MLB service time.... They won't get six years.....

Take the Pirates for example. Three years from now, Skenese will be making $40-50/year, Jared Jones will be making $30-40, Bubba Chandler will be making $20-30 million per year. Throw in Konnor Griffin making $30+ million a year.... That's $120 ON THE LOW END for this club three years from now for four players! 

Today's ruling just effectively killed the possibility of a smooth conversation for a clean CBA negotiation next year. The owners will DEMAND a Salary Cap after today. A lot of teams won't be able to afford this if every 5-year stud starts making $30 mil+. I'm glad Skubal got paid what he did. He deserves it. But today's ruling just hurt baseball.... and it hurt it deep. I'll be amazed if the owners don't lockout next year w/o a salary cap. They won't even come to the table until the players say that they will at least listen to something on that. 

Enjoy baseball. Cuz after this year, it's going to be a looooooooong time until you see another MLB game...... 

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I'll be amazed if the owners don't lockout next year w/o a salary cap

It could get very bizarre. You are going to have the rich teams in strange alliance with the players against the rest of the teams. And in the end the larger numbers of poorer owners may not be able to hold out because they can probably least afford a year without revenue. I suppose that will be the ultimate tell as to whether those teams are losing money or not. They'll be a lot more willing to take the shutdown if they weren't making any money anyway.

[buddha]

27 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I have no idea how you think this after today's deal. How will this work for small market clubs like the Brewers, Pirates and Rays who pump out good players? They will HAVE to trade their players after three years of MLB service time.... They won't get six years.....

Take the Pirates for example. Three years from now, Skenese will be making $40-50/year, Jared Jones will be making $30-40, Bubba Chandler will be making $20-30 million per year. Throw in Konnor Griffin making $30+ million a year.... That's $120 ON THE LOW END for this club three years from now for four players! 

Today's ruling just effectively killed the possibility of a smooth conversation for a clean CBA negotiation next year. The owners will DEMAND a Salary Cap after today. A lot of teams won't be able to afford this if every 5-year stud starts making $30 mil+. I'm glad Skubal got paid what he did. He deserves it. But today's ruling just hurt baseball.... and it hurt it deep. I'll be amazed if the owners don't lockout next year w/o a salary cap. They won't even come to the table until the players say that they will at least listen to something on that. 

Enjoy baseball. Cuz after this year, it's going to be a looooooooong time until you see another MLB game...... 

yeah who knows, the poor brewers might just have to go out and win 97 games again like last year.

HOW WILL THE POOR BREWERS COMPETE?????

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

yeah who knows, the poor brewers might just have to go out and win 97 games again like last year.

HOW WILL THE POOR BREWERS COMPETE?????

One team is not an argument for the system though. Any team might have a run of draft picks that hit, trades where a a throw-in becomes a star, whatever - basically has a lot of stuff go right and ends up competitive a few seasons - for instance the Tigers incredible pitching health in 2006. That fact that can happen doesn't mean the system isn't highly biased, it only proves its not impossibly biased. Not much of a bar.

[buddha]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

One team is not an argument for the system though. Any team might have a run of draft picks that hit, trades where a a throw-in becomes a star, whatever - basically has a lot of stuff go right and ends up competitive a few seasons - for instance the Tigers incredible pitching health in 2006. That fact that can happen doesn't mean the system isn't highly biased, it only proves its not impossibly biased. Not much of a bar.

sure, and throwing out the sad sack pirates as an example of how smaller markets cant compete is not an argument that the system must be changed.  move to nashville if you cant compete in pittsburgh.  times change.

rays, royals, brewers, indians, tigers, padres, twins.  all have competed and won lots of games.  more games than many well heeled organizations.

yes, you have smaller margins for error.  yes, you need to be better.

i think that's ok.  use the tools you have to your advantage.  some organizations do it well.  other organizations turn into the angels.

again, i dont need to have every team spending the exact same amount of money, or to prevent teams from spending money in order to enjoy the game.  

parity is boring.  why should the tigers have tarik skubal for life?  why should the pirates get paul skeenes for eternity?  because they were awful the year he was availble for them to "draft" and then immensely UNDERPAY for the next seven or eight years?  

nyah.  the pirates have plenty of advantages when it comes to the modern game, the fact that they cant sign 30 year old outfielders, or re-sign one of the best talents in the game after having him for 1/3 to 1/2 of his career for next to nothing is not a problem, imo.

[Stormin]

I am curious how many fans who followed the Tigers from 2017 to 2023,  and watched Miggy become a below average player on an unmovable contract, would actually want the Tigers to sign Skubal to a 10 year deal.

A lot of media folks are still tossing around the 10 year $400M number.  I would think a 10 year contract for a 30 year old pitcher would be a stretch for almost any team and a definite no for the Tigers.