Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Shelton]

What a fascinating case. I think each side had good arguments to support their view, and on a three judge panel with fairly flexible guidance, anything can happen. 
 

I’m specifically interested in the precedent set here. The fact that nothing like this had happened before was relevant, but it’s also true that a player having the specific attributes that Skubal had was never presented to a panel. Most of the preceding cases for big money were settlements. 
 

Credit to Skubal and Boras for risking millions argue their position. 

[Tiger337]

6 hours ago, NorthWoods said:

Skubal wins.

As usual.

[Tigermojo]

[Shelton]

If Skenes win a Cy this year, and heads into his first arbitration year, the language of the current CBA appears to indicate that he could demand and win 32 million. 

[Edman85]

10 minutes ago, Shelton said:

If Skenes win a Cy this year, and heads into his first arbitration year, the language of the current CBA appears to indicate that he could demand and win 32 million. 

I don't think that is true. He can only compare to other 3 year guys, unless you found a clause I didn't. 

[Shelton]

31 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I don't think that is true. He can only compare to other 3 year guys, unless you found a clause I didn't. 

This is what I read:

The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary pur-poses, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player's annual service group. This shall not limit the ability of a Player or his representative, because of special accomplishment, to argue the

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equal relevance of salaries of Players without regard to service, and the arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as is deemed appropriate.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, Shelton said:

What a fascinating case. I think each side had good arguments to support their view, and on a three judge panel with fairly flexible guidance, anything can happen. 
 

I’m specifically interested in the precedent set here. The fact that nothing like this had happened before was relevant, but it’s also true that a player having the specific attributes that Skubal had was never presented to a panel. Most of the preceding cases for big money were settlements. 
 

Credit to Skubal and Boras for risking millions argue their position. 

It will be a huge credit to them if/when Skubal makes it thru the '26 season, injury free and with good stats. They're really gambling so he can get that $400 million contract. I dont know if the Tigers offered him an extension or not but if so, they're risking it.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

8 hours ago, buddha said:

the teams still do get to control player costs for the first six years of their major league career, not to mention all the years they are in the minor leagues.  regardless of the outcome of skubal's arb hearing, the tigers will still be paying him less than his market value next season.  the system still works to hold down player salaries, as it was designed to do.

I have no idea how you think this after today's deal. How will this work for small market clubs like the Brewers, Pirates and Rays who pump out good players? They will HAVE to trade their players after three years of MLB service time.... They won't get six years.....

Take the Pirates for example. Three years from now, Skenese will be making $40-50/year, Jared Jones will be making $30-40, Bubba Chandler will be making $20-30 million per year. Throw in Konnor Griffin making $30+ million a year.... That's $120 ON THE LOW END for this club three years from now for four players! 

Today's ruling just effectively killed the possibility of a smooth conversation for a clean CBA negotiation next year. The owners will DEMAND a Salary Cap after today. A lot of teams won't be able to afford this if every 5-year stud starts making $30 mil+. I'm glad Skubal got paid what he did. He deserves it. But today's ruling just hurt baseball.... and it hurt it deep. I'll be amazed if the owners don't lockout next year w/o a salary cap. They won't even come to the table until the players say that they will at least listen to something on that. 

Enjoy baseball. Cuz after this year, it's going to be a looooooooong time until you see another MLB game...... 

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I'll be amazed if the owners don't lockout next year w/o a salary cap

It could get very bizarre. You are going to have the rich teams in strange alliance with the players against the rest of the teams. And in the end the larger numbers of poorer owners may not be able to hold out because they can probably least afford a year without revenue. I suppose that will be the ultimate tell as to whether those teams are losing money or not. They'll be a lot more willing to take the shutdown if they weren't making any money anyway.

[buddha]

27 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I have no idea how you think this after today's deal. How will this work for small market clubs like the Brewers, Pirates and Rays who pump out good players? They will HAVE to trade their players after three years of MLB service time.... They won't get six years.....

Take the Pirates for example. Three years from now, Skenese will be making $40-50/year, Jared Jones will be making $30-40, Bubba Chandler will be making $20-30 million per year. Throw in Konnor Griffin making $30+ million a year.... That's $120 ON THE LOW END for this club three years from now for four players! 

Today's ruling just effectively killed the possibility of a smooth conversation for a clean CBA negotiation next year. The owners will DEMAND a Salary Cap after today. A lot of teams won't be able to afford this if every 5-year stud starts making $30 mil+. I'm glad Skubal got paid what he did. He deserves it. But today's ruling just hurt baseball.... and it hurt it deep. I'll be amazed if the owners don't lockout next year w/o a salary cap. They won't even come to the table until the players say that they will at least listen to something on that. 

Enjoy baseball. Cuz after this year, it's going to be a looooooooong time until you see another MLB game...... 

yeah who knows, the poor brewers might just have to go out and win 97 games again like last year.

HOW WILL THE POOR BREWERS COMPETE?????

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

yeah who knows, the poor brewers might just have to go out and win 97 games again like last year.

HOW WILL THE POOR BREWERS COMPETE?????

One team is not an argument for the system though. Any team might have a run of draft picks that hit, trades where a a throw-in becomes a star, whatever - basically has a lot of stuff go right and ends up competitive a few seasons - for instance the Tigers incredible pitching health in 2006. That fact that can happen doesn't mean the system isn't highly biased, it only proves its not impossibly biased. Not much of a bar.

[buddha]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

One team is not an argument for the system though. Any team might have a run of draft picks that hit, trades where a a throw-in becomes a star, whatever - basically has a lot of stuff go right and ends up competitive a few seasons - for instance the Tigers incredible pitching health in 2006. That fact that can happen doesn't mean the system isn't highly biased, it only proves its not impossibly biased. Not much of a bar.

sure, and throwing out the sad sack pirates as an example of how smaller markets cant compete is not an argument that the system must be changed.  move to nashville if you cant compete in pittsburgh.  times change.

rays, royals, brewers, indians, tigers, padres, twins.  all have competed and won lots of games.  more games than many well heeled organizations.

yes, you have smaller margins for error.  yes, you need to be better.

i think that's ok.  use the tools you have to your advantage.  some organizations do it well.  other organizations turn into the angels.

again, i dont need to have every team spending the exact same amount of money, or to prevent teams from spending money in order to enjoy the game.  

parity is boring.  why should the tigers have tarik skubal for life?  why should the pirates get paul skeenes for eternity?  because they were awful the year he was availble for them to "draft" and then immensely UNDERPAY for the next seven or eight years?  

nyah.  the pirates have plenty of advantages when it comes to the modern game, the fact that they cant sign 30 year old outfielders, or re-sign one of the best talents in the game after having him for 1/3 to 1/2 of his career for next to nothing is not a problem, imo.

[Stormin]

I am curious how many fans who followed the Tigers from 2017 to 2023,  and watched Miggy become a below average player on an unmovable contract, would actually want the Tigers to sign Skubal to a 10 year deal.

A lot of media folks are still tossing around the 10 year $400M number.  I would think a 10 year contract for a 30 year old pitcher would be a stretch for almost any team and a definite no for the Tigers.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

46 minutes ago, buddha said:

sure, and throwing out the sad sack pirates as an example of how smaller markets cant compete is not an argument that the system must be changed.  move to nashville if you cant compete in pittsburgh.  times change.

rays, royals, brewers, indians, tigers, padres, twins.  all have competed and won lots of games.  more games than many well heeled organizations.

yes, you have smaller margins for error.  yes, you need to be better.

i think that's ok.  use the tools you have to your advantage.  some organizations do it well.  other organizations turn into the angels.

again, i dont need to have every team spending the exact same amount of money, or to prevent teams from spending money in order to enjoy the game.  

parity is boring.  why should the tigers have tarik skubal for life?  why should the pirates get paul skeenes for eternity?  because they were awful the year he was availble for them to "draft" and then immensely UNDERPAY for the next seven or eight years?  

nyah.  the pirates have plenty of advantages when it comes to the modern game, the fact that they cant sign 30 year old outfielders, or re-sign one of the best talents in the game after having him for 1/3 to 1/2 of his career for next to nothing is not a problem, imo.

The point I am making is these smaller market teams won't be able to keep a lot of their players past year 3.... If their superstar rookies are getting paid $30 mil+ 3 years into their MLB life, how will the small markets do that? You mock about the 97 win Brewers.... Imagine if they didn't have Freddy Peralta, Chuorio, Miz, Uribe, Vaughn, Turang, Durbin..... You think they win 97? Hell no. These small market teams can't and won't recover from this .......

 

 

 

(Yes I understand Chuorio has a long term deal but I'm pointing out that if he knows he can make $35mil+ after 3 years, he wouldn't of signed that deal ...... This is strictly for example purposes to prove the point.)

[AlaskanTigersFan]

34 minutes ago, Stormin said:

I am curious how many fans who followed the Tigers from 2017 to 2023,  and watched Miggy become a below average player on an unmovable contract, would actually want the Tigers to sign Skubal to a 10 year deal.

A lot of media folks are still tossing around the 10 year $400M number.  I would think a 10 year contract for a 30 year old pitcher would be a stretch for almost any team and a definite no for the Tigers.

Exactly why the Tigers should trade him now for a kings ransom. Or if he blows out his arm in April.... FML. We are the Angels 2.0.....

[AlaskanTigersFan]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

It could get very bizarre. You are going to have the rich teams in strange alliance with the players against the rest of the teams. And in the end the larger numbers of poorer owners may not be able to hold out because they can probably least afford a year without revenue. I suppose that will be the ultimate tell as to whether those teams are losing money or not. They'll be a lot more willing to take the shutdown if they weren't making any money anyway.

I think your right. But if there's a lockout, they aren't paying players or staff around the park on game days. Just maintenance staff and general maintenance. They could also probably lease their fields for events too.

But your point is very valid, just trying to play a little devil's advocate. I agree with you though.

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

The point I am making is these smaller market teams won't be able to keep a lot of their players past year 3.... If their superstar rookies are getting paid $30 mil+ 3 years into their MLB life, how will the small markets do that? You mock about the 97 win Brewers.... Imagine if they didn't have Freddy Peralta, Chuorio, Miz, Uribe, Vaughn, Turang, Durbin..... You think they win 97? Hell no. These small market teams can't and won't recover from this .......

 

 

 

(Yes I understand Chuorio has a long term deal but I'm pointing out that if he knows he can make $35mil+ after 3 years, he wouldn't of signed that deal ...... This is strictly for example purposes to prove the point.)

Right, even if Buddha is happy with the amount of imbalance now, if teams start losing guys at 3 yrs, the Tigers wouldn't have made the playoff either of the last two years.

[buddha]

30 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

The point I am making is these smaller market teams won't be able to keep a lot of their players past year 3.... If their superstar rookies are getting paid $30 mil+ 3 years into their MLB life, how will the small markets do that? You mock about the 97 win Brewers.... Imagine if they didn't have Freddy Peralta, Chuorio, Miz, Uribe, Vaughn, Turang, Durbin..... You think they win 97? Hell no. These small market teams can't and won't recover from this .......

 

 

 

(Yes I understand Chuorio has a long term deal but I'm pointing out that if he knows he can make $35mil+ after 3 years, he wouldn't of signed that deal ...... This is strictly for example purposes to prove the point.)

how am i mocking the 97 win brewers?  i'm holding up the 97 win small market brewers as an example of how the sky is not falling and small market teams can compete when they are run well, and that big market teams who spend money are often disasters, like the angels.

[SoCalTiger]

Boras and Skubal just killed the arbitration process and it will prove a MAJOR stinky point for settlement of a new agreement. In the long run given a potentially canceled or shortened 2027 season Tarik may end up netting less over the two years than getting paid 19 million and a quick settlement. Ironic as it may be he may have won his case and shot himself in the foot. It's going to be ugly. 

I would lean to having a floor without a cap and **** canning arbitration altogether while allowing players free after five years of service. 

[RatkoVarda]

9 hours ago, Shelton said:

The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player's annual service group

I think that Skenes could ask for $32M in his 1st arbitration year. He is allowed to ask, but the arbitrators are supposed to focus on 1st and 2nd years salaries. If they think special circumstances merit $32M, so be it.

Skenes, like Skubal and Ohtani, are unicorns. I have no problem if they are are compensated as such.

[Nate7474]

To me when it comes down to compensation there needs to be a balance to get a deal for baseball next year. There is going to need to be some sort of cap situation. The way i see forward is for the non stars their salaries need to be higher and grow faster per year and reach Free Agency sooner. For the stars the salaries need to not be able to balloon up and take up a 3rd of the the budget by themselves. Right now there’s a large gap of potential salary range and it needs to be pushed together more. 

[RatkoVarda]

Skenes was paid 875K for his 6.5 WAR last year; the Pirates got a superstar performance for peanuts, and then re-allocated the money they would have had to pay a superstar pitcher right into the pockets of the owner, trotting out a bottom 5 payroll.

Clearly the only solution to this problem is to limit the earning power of players, so billionaire owners can make higher profits.

[tiger2022]

8 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

It will be a huge credit to them if/when Skubal makes it thru the '26 season, injury free and with good stats. They're really gambling so he can get that $400 million contract. I dont know if the Tigers offered him an extension or not but if so, they're risking it.

There were a lot of reports that the Tigers lowballed him with a non competitive offer.

They really never had any intention of trying to sign him because they weren't going to offer anywhere close to what he would get as a FA and knew he wouldn't sign.

Plus, comments that Skubal has made sure sounds like he doesn't have any faith in the front office and ownership.

[tiger2022]

2 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Skenes was paid 875K for his 6.5 WAR last year; the Pirates got a superstar performance for peanuts, and then re-allocated the money they would have had to pay a superstar pitcher right into the pockets of the owner, trotting out a bottom 5 payroll.

Clearly the only solution to this problem is to limit the earning power of players, so billionaire owners can make higher profits.

The Pirates are one of the most profitable mlb franchises.  Their owner doesn't care about the trash product he puts out on the field.  He was fortunate to draft one of the premier players that people want to watch.  And has another one in Griffin.

[Shelton]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

I think that Skenes could ask for $32M in his 1st arbitration year. He is allowed to ask, but the arbitrators are supposed to focus on 1st and 2nd years salaries. If they think special circumstances merit $32M, so be it.

Skenes, like Skubal and Ohtani, are unicorns. I have no problem if they are are compensated as such.

Yes I understand how that works. Why did you delete the rest of the passage that effectively said to ignore the passage you cited in the case of special accomplishments. That sentence can be interpreted to say service time doesn’t matter. I’m inclined to believe the arbitrators in Skubal’s case read it that way. Otherwise it’s hard to see how Skubal’s arbitration-restricted value could have exceeded 25.5.

I think it’s great for Skubal and very interesting going forward. In the case of skenes, a hypothetical rookie of the year followed by back to back Cy Young awards sure like a special circumstance that removes the restriction of comparisons being limited to common service time.