Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[gehringer_2]

40 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I’m struggling to see what benefit he provides by being right handed when he can’t hit.

And McKinstry had a reverse platoon split last season. He's only had 8 AB against LHP and is hitless so far. IDK, somtimes it seems the management is slave to statistics until there's one that doesn't meet with their prejudices.

Edited 21 hours ago by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

 

I think this was the plan, but a few things happened.

• Torres never got better. Short is basically the right handed option. Remember he was DFA'ed, but then brought back once Torres had to go on the IL.
• Around that time, they signed Paul DeJong, who could very easily be a better option than Short. Hell, you could probably call him up right now if you wanted to... except, he's out for the year with an injury now.
• Trei Cruz is still on rehab, and wasn't exactly banging the door down in AAA before his injury.
• And now Torres had a setback.

So now your primary shortstop in AAA is Max Burt, who they tried to send to AA before having to drag him back up when DeJong was hurt. Burt is a fringe guy with a career minor league OPS around 0.600. It's not some indictment on the org that he's their AAA SS right now. It's just been injury after injury after injury. Heck, Jack Penney, who was playing with the squad late in camp is just now getting his rehab going.

Hard to say if the injuries are bad luck or if something is afoot with the strength/training staff.

Not for nothing, It didn't help that Rainer's progress got pushed back a year by injury. Not that he'd be ready to help us now, but still.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

And McKinstry had a reverse platoon split last season. He's only had 8 AB against LHP and is hitless so far. IDK, somtimes it seems the management is slave to statistics until there's one that doesn't meet with their prejudices.

Or maybe they saw something during live BP against LHPs that concerned them.

[Edman85]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

And McKinstry had a reverse platoon split last season. He's only had 8 AB against LHP and is hitless so far. IDK, somtimes it seems the management is slave to statistics until there's one that doesn't meet with their prejudices.

Season long platoon splits are a very small sample.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Season long platoon splits are a very small sample.

true enough but what else have you got then besides old-school conventional wisdom, the thing from whose errors and prejudices we are trying to inoculate ourselves in the analytics era? If a guy holds his own for 120 PA against LHP and in particular has a reasonable K rate - a number which usually does stabilize pretty fast, where's the strength in the argument against letting that keep playing out? It comes down to someone saying "well I've been managing baseball for X decades and I believe most guys will crash back to earth"

But any particular guy is not necessarily "most guys", so if all you have is a general prejudice, as the  Dude would say: "Well, that's like..just your opinion man"  

this also an area where you would think tech should start making a difference. The reason given that LHH have worse platoon splits on average then RHH is that RHH have no choice but to see a lot of RHP. But with Trajekt (et al), a LHH who wants to work at it can practice against good LHP as much as he wants. We'll see if that has any effect across the league over time.

 

Edited 17 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Edman85]

You need 1000+ PA vs LHP for a platoon split to be meaningful using traditional statistics. These days with swing path data and the like teams can very likely spot things with much smaller samples.

[Shelton]

12 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

And McKinstry had a reverse platoon split last season. He's only had 8 AB against LHP and is hitless so far. IDK, somtimes it seems the management is slave to statistics until there's one that doesn't meet with their prejudices.

I think McKinstry might still be dealing with something and keeping him from playing SS, but I also find myself not tuning in very much during this period, so maybe he is getting time there and I just haven’t noticed. But to me I’m seeing way too much short at SS and Kevin at 3B. The season was probably cursed when we started playing Javy at SS and Kevin at 3B first thing. 

[Edman85]

McKinstry played 3B his first game back and has been exclusively 2B and RF since. You may be onto something. He may have been rushed back just because of all the other injuries.

Which got me thinking how many other players aren't getting a day off when they may need one and the mechanisms about how injuries and inderperformance can spiral.

[Shelton]

Just for argument’s sake, could we not simply call up Max A to see if he can hit major league pitching, and DFA short again? Kevin just had a day off yesterday. We can use workman there in an emergency. This is assuming McKinstry isn’t an option (but I’m not sure how much I believe my own theory; I think they just prefer him in the other spots and they have short on the roster so AJ gonna use him for that sweet sweet platoon advantage).

These are now desperate times. Teams have been able to bounce back before in situations as dire as this, but they don’t do so by going 1-5 this week. 
 

Madden is also close to a return. The traditional solution is to send him to Toledo because there is no spot for him in the rotation for some reason. But I think this is the perfect opportunity to give Jack a break to clear his head and maybe come down with a mild oblique strain. 

[Edman85]

The league is cracking down on phantom IL stints. Use that with caution with Flaherty.

[monkeytargets39]

My idea would be to DFA Vanasco once Madden comes off the IL and send Madden and Wenceel to Toledo, and add Malgeri to the active roster along with maybe keeping Sommers up so we don’t have to rely as much on De Jesus with Hurter out.

 

Then we can run Greene/Vierling/Malgeri out there every day as a passable outfield defense until Carp or Javy get back, and that would allow you to also send Workman down and use McKinstry as a 2B/3B/SS instead of having him in RF all the time bc Perez stinks.  Short has a purpose for now but he’s getting way too much playing time because McKinstry is needed elsewhere.

[SoCalTiger]

McStinky is most definitely playing hurt and can not play shortstop. I have been asking the board this for weeks. It is the only reason Short is here. Who else can play shortstop at the major league level and not drown in the entire system ? Peck is not ready. Harris and Hinch are not stupid people.

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Shelton said:

I think McKinstry might still be dealing with something and keeping him from playing SS, but I also find myself not tuning in very much during this period, so maybe he is getting time there and I just haven’t noticed. But to me I’m seeing way too much short at SS and Kevin at 3B. The season was probably cursed when we started playing Javy at SS and Kevin at 3B first thing. 

could be. McK was a little rough at SS when he first arrived but seemed to play pretty well there last season, so that would make sense. 

[RatkoVarda]

17 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Hard to say if the injuries are bad luck or if something is afoot with the strength/training staff.

I'm sure there is a way to confirm or not, but I assume that they are the team with the most or almost the most guys on the IL in the majors. and it seems to be both pitchers and position players. further assuming that in terms of starters they are near the top of the list.

also assuming they are near the top with the most Minor league guys on the IL.

not sure how you compete with 4 ML bats to call on each night.

[Shelton]

2 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

McStinky is most definitely playing hurt and can not play shortstop. I have been asking the board this for weeks. It is the only reason Short is here. Who else can play shortstop at the major league level and not drown in the entire system ? Peck is not ready. Harris and Hinch are not stupid people.

McGonigle has played the entire game for at the last 18 games and basically every game this season. In these last 18 in a row, he has played 3B in 9 of them (4 full games and 5 games playing both SS and 3B).

No one is saying Harris and Hinch are stupid people. But there are alternatives to being forced into using Zack Short. It’s not like they have no choice. They are choosing to use him, so it’s fair game to discuss that choice. Every game that has featured Zack short could have featured someone else in his lineup spot, with Kevin playing SS instead.

[Tiger337]

Imagine what this season would be like if McGonigle were not ready yet

[Shelton]

2 hours ago, monkeytargets39 said:

My idea would be to DFA Vanasco once Madden comes off the IL and send Madden and Wenceel to Toledo, and add Malgeri to the active roster along with maybe keeping Sommers up so we don’t have to rely as much on De Jesus with Hurter out.

 

Then we can run Greene/Vierling/Malgeri out there every day as a passable outfield defense until Carp or Javy get back, and that would allow you to also send Workman down and use McKinstry as a 2B/3B/SS instead of having him in RF all the time bc Perez stinks.  Short has a purpose for now but he’s getting way too much playing time because McKinstry is needed elsewhere.

Tell me more about this malgieri. Is there anything about his performance that suggests his AAA success will transition better than workman? I’m not opposed to it, but is this guy someone people expect to stick?

 

I’m with you in dumping Wenceel. I wouldn’t care if they dumped all of Wenceel, short, and McKinstry. Dump any two of them actually, and you can keep one as a treat. 

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Shelton said:

McGonigle has played the entire game for at the last 18 games and basically every game this season. In these last 18 in a row, he has played 3B in 9 of them (4 full games and 5 games playing both SS and 3B).

No one is saying Harris and Hinch are stupid people. But there are alternatives to being forced into using Zack Short. It’s not like they have no choice. They are choosing to use him, so it’s fair game to discuss that choice. Every game that has featured Zack short could have featured someone else in his lineup spot, with Kevin playing SS instead.

i like defense as much as the next guy, but the league average plays for a SS in 9 innings is 4.5 and probably 90% of those are routine. That’s works out to about a play every two games where a better defender is likely to matter. OTOH, in those two games that player had 7-9 PA, every one of which mattered. That’s an extreme view, but the numbers are what they are. 

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

i like defense as much as the next guy, but the league average plays for a SS in 9 innings is 4.5 and probably 90% of those are routine. That’s works out to about a play every two games where a better defender is likely to matter. OTOH, in those two games that player had 7-9 PA, every one of which mattered. That’s an extreme view, but the numbers are what they are. 

But an average hitter will probably only get one more hit in three games than Zach Short would. 

And if the Tigers had an average hitter to add to the roster, he'd probably be batting cleanup already.  

[Dan Gilmore]

Continuing on the Short topic, yeah he sucks, but somehow has a better OPS than Perez. 😵‍💫

[Tiger337]

42 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Tell me more about this malgieri. Is there anything about his performance that suggests his AAA success will transition better than workman? I’m not opposed to it, but is this guy someone people expect to stick?

 

I’m with you in dumping Wenceel. I wouldn’t care if they dumped all of Wenceel, short, and McKinstry. Dump any two of them actually, and you can keep one as a treat. 

I was going to ask the same question.  I have never read anything about Malgeri being more than a marginal prospect.  I don't remember seeing him on any prospect lists.  They did invite him to Spring training for what it's worth.  

[NorthWoods]

 

[monkeytargets39]

1 hour ago, Shelton said:

Tell me more about this malgieri. Is there anything about his performance that suggests his AAA success will transition better than workman? I’m not opposed to it, but is this guy someone people expect to stick?

 

I’m with you in dumping Wenceel. I wouldn’t care if they dumped all of Wenceel, short, and McKinstry. Dump any two of them actually, and you can keep one as a treat. 

Malgeri is probably little more than a AAA outfielder, but he plays all three OF positions.  All I’d want him for is flexibility in the outfield and to make it so we can keep McKinstry more in the infield until we get healthy.  McKinstry has been covering RF/CF since Jones can’t play defense.  That would take ABs away from Workman/Short/Lee and also eliminate Perez.  It’s just a temporary move for the short term but helps get some severely below replacement level players out.

Edited 2 hours ago by monkeytargets39

[tiger2022]

Young left handed batter vs Rhp, .281 avg .858 ops, vs lhp .228 avg, .759 ops.  And the year before, .219 avg,  .719 ops.  Definitely a platoon player for Hinch, probably sharing time with Jahmai Jones.  To everyone else, he's right there with Ted Williams and Babe Ruth as the greatest hitter ever.  Barry Bonds.

Yes, I do think Hinch would have been smarter than Jim Leyland and put him in a platoon situation and pinch hit  for when left handed relievers came in the game.

You have to give young guys a chance instead of pigeon holing them as a platoon player when they are 23 or 24. 

Edited 1 hour ago by tiger2022

[Tiger337]

13 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

Young left handed batter vs Rhp, .281 avg .858 ops, vs lhp .228 avg, .759 ops.  And the year before, .219 avg,  .719 ops.  Definitely a platoon player for Hinch, probably sharing time with Jahmai Jones.  To everyone else, he's right there with Ted Williams and Babe Ruth as the greatest hitter ever.  Barry Bonds.

Yes, I do think Hinch would have been smarter than Jim Leyland and put him in a platoon situation and pinch hit  for when left handed relievers came in the game.

You have to give young guys a chance instead of pigeon holing them as a platoon player when they are 23 or 24. 

That is ridiculous.  There is no way Hinch would have platooned Bonds.  Bonds was always regarded as a five tool with superstar potential.  

Right now, Keith needs to figure how to hit right handers.  He has hit for a .528 OPS over the past month.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Tiger337