Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[papalawrence]

A lot can happen between now and the end of 2026. Skubal is definitely betting on himself to stay healthy. It worked for Scherzer, but it's definitely a gamble

[Tigermojo]

They are losing Skubal and Mize at the same time. The young guys have some question marks. They may need multiple starters and investing so much in one probably isn't a good idea for this team.

[tiger2022]

Charlie Morton can cover the loss of Skubal and Mize.

Genius move to bring in a 41 year old washed up starter.  I mean, was he a better option than Keider Montero?

[Shinzaki]

Assuming theybtrade him...I would think that the number of teams with the $$$ and the assets to acquiacquire would be very short

[SoCalTiger]

57 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

Charlie Morton can cover the loss of Skubal and Mize.

Genius move to bring in a 41 year old washed up starter.  I mean, was he a better option than Keider Montero?

Yes

[GalagaGuy]

10 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

Assuming theybtrade him...I would think that the number of teams with the $$$ and the assets to acquiacquire would be very short

They'd only be trading for a year of Skubal so I don't see why any team would be out of the running.  

[tiger2022]

45 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

They'd only be trading for a year of Skubal so I don't see why any team would be out of the running.  

Which will also limit the return they would get

[4hzglory]

45 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

They'd only be trading for a year of Skubal so I don't see why any team would be out of the running.  

For the same reason people seem to think the Tigers, in a position to compete, should trade him.

[4hzglory]

Just now, 4hzglory said:

For the same reason people seem to think the Tigers, in a position to compete, should trade him.

In the position they are in, if anything, the Tigers in the offseason should be looking to add a Skubal (difference making player under control for 1 season) more than they should trade Skubal.

 

Personally, I don’t think they should do either.  Keep Skubal to give your best shot of advancing in the playoffs, and look to trade for difference makers under control if you are going to trade-even if the price may hurt.  

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, tiger2022 said:

Charlie Morton can cover the loss of Skubal and Mize.

Genius move to bring in a 41 year old washed up starter.  I mean, was he a better option than Keider Montero?

I don't think there is a big difference in talent between them.  Morton might be marginally better and he has experience, but I don't want either one pitching in a big game.  

[Tigermojo]

Skubal will pitch for the Tigers next year, he will receive a qualifying offer in the offseason and will sign with the highest bidder. We will probably survive.

[GalagaGuy]

39 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

For the same reason people seem to think the Tigers, in a position to compete, should trade him.

I would think that depends on the return.  If the Tigers could trade Skubal before next season for a #2 starter and an every day bat, both under contract for the next few seasons, wouldn't that actually make the team better? 

[oblong]

11 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

I would think that depends on the return.  If the Tigers could trade Skubal before next season for a #2 starter and an every day bat, both under contract for the next few seasons, wouldn't that actually make the team better? 

A contending team won’t do that.  By trading a #2 then you don’t improve your staff all that much. And you made your lineup worse.  

“Let’s trade one of our top starters that’s under team control for a guy who will leave”.  

[tiger2022]

They aren't going to trade an everyday bat either.  

[GalagaGuy]

23 minutes ago, oblong said:

A contending team won’t do that.  By trading a #2 then you don’t improve your staff all that much. And you made your lineup worse.  

“Let’s trade one of our top starters that’s under team control for a guy who will leave”.  

I don't think we can say what a team would or wouldn't be willing to trade, especially if their intention was to sign Skubal long term and were looking to get a hold of him a year earlier.   I think there's certainly a deal out there that both teams would find appealing.  

Edited Monday at 11:50 PM by GalagaGuy

[4hzglory]

1 hour ago, GalagaGuy said:

I would think that depends on the return.  If the Tigers could trade Skubal before next season for a #2 starter and an every day bat, both under contract for the next few seasons, wouldn't that actually make the team better? 

But by that rationale, why would another team in a similar position (who doesn’t expect to be able to sign him) make that trade?  I’m just responding to your comment that no team would be out of the running.

[GalagaGuy]

1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

But by that rationale, why would another team in a similar position (who doesn’t expect to be able to sign him) make that trade?  I’m just responding to your comment that no team would be out of the running.

In my hypothetical, it would be one of the big market teams that just wants to get him on board a year earlier.   I could still see a team going for a full season rental if they felt they were in a good position to make a run.  Who knows, I'd just feel better about it if the Tigers could get something for him before losing him to free agency.  

[chasfh]

22 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

And then it was voided because he failed to pass the physical.  My point is though that not every player gets what they want. Presumably Avila did not have access to the Giants offer before he made his offer (assuming that he did make such an offer).  He may have thought that Correa was too much of an injury risk and would not get a better offer.  Bregman made demands that were not met last winter and Harris reportedly made an offer for less than he wanted.  Why is that different?  

The main point is that Avila made the first offer to Correa and it was well below Correa’s known floor, so it was a fair accompli that Correa would turn it down. The only real unknown is whether Avila knew going in whether Correa would reject it. Anyone who’s ever done even a little negotiating for a living would know Correa would reject it, and since Avila has done even a little negotiating as GM, I assume he knew it. I’m famous for not giving Al much credit, but I’m giving him credit for at least knowing that. The Harris offer to Bregman was more serious because it reportedly was the highest dollar figure of any team, as opposed to Avila’s obvious lowball effort, but who knows, maybe Harris was making an offer he knew Bregman would turn down, too.

22 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

(assuming that he did make such an offer)

It was widely reported by national beat writers, including Olney, that Avila made the offer to Correa, and this entire debate is predicated on the fact of that. If you’re going to cast doubt on whether it even happened, or whether it was fake news instead, then we really have nothing more to debate here.

[chasfh]

16 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

They are losing Skubal and Mize at the same time. The young guys have some question marks. They may need multiple starters and investing so much in one probably isn't a good idea for this team.

But we should be getting back Jobe to cover them! 🤪

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think there is a big difference in talent between them.  Morton might be marginally better and he has experience, but I don't want either one pitching in a big game.  

It’s definitely not the difference between an ace and a spot starter, but for the purpose of getting us through the rest of this year, I think Morton has a better chance to pitch us closer to the playoffs than Montero does. Once the winter comes, we’ll probably have seen the last of Charlie Morton, but Keider Montero will get another shot next season.

[oblong]

11 hours ago, GalagaGuy said:

In my hypothetical, it would be one of the big market teams that just wants to get him on board a year earlier.   I could still see a team going for a full season rental if they felt they were in a good position to make a run.  Who knows, I'd just feel better about it if the Tigers could get something for him before losing him to free agency.  

But you are only looking at it from one teams  perspective.  If a team gives up a good #2 under control for more years and an everyday bat for Skubal then how much better have they made their team?  Especially when they probably only have him for 1 year.  Further to that… how many teams are in that position right now to of that?

[4hzglory]

16 minutes ago, oblong said:

But you are only looking at it from one teams  perspective.  If a team gives up a good #2 under control for more years and an everyday bat for Skubal then how much better have they made their team?  Especially when they probably only have him for 1 year.  Further to that… how many teams are in that position right now to of that?

Exactly.  A trade for Skubal likely involves prospects coming back, especially if pitchers.  If position players, a team with an abundance at one position (like the Red Sox with OF) you may get major leaguers with control.  But a playoff team isn’t going to give a good (established) #2 with control as part of the deal for 1 guaranteed year of Slubal if they are trying to upgrade their rotation.  It could be a prospect that projects to that, but just that, a prospect.

 

i think we would a be disappointed to see what the “haul” for 1 year of Skubal would actually be.  Would we be happy with what the Brewers got for Burnes?  I wouldn’t when we have a legitimate shot to compete now and pitchers like Skubal can go a long way to win short playoff series.

[oblong]

6 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Exactly.  A trade for Skubal likely involves prospects coming back, especially if pitchers.  If position players, a team with an abundance at one position (like the Red Sox with OF) you may get major leaguers with control.  But a playoff team isn’t going to give a good (established) #2 with control as part of the deal for 1 guaranteed year of Slubal if they are trying to upgrade their rotation.  It could be a prospect that projects to that, but just that, a prospect.

 

i think we would a be disappointed to see what the “haul” for 1 year of Skubal would actually be.  Would we be happy with what the Brewers got for Burnes?  I wouldn’t when we have a legitimate shot to compete now and pitchers like Skubal can go a long way to win short playoff series.

Yes. You ride Skubal and then wish him well and thank the team that’s going to pay him for what he did for you.  
 Imagine the vitriol if the Tigers had traded Scherzer in 2014 then got swept by the Orioles. 

[Shelton]

It’s going to be near impossible for another team out there to offer a return that is more valuable to the 2026 tigers than one year of Skubal plus a high comp pick.

When I say 2026 tigers, I am not referring to the 2026 season, but rather the state of the organization in winter 2026 (which of course includes the 2026 season and beyond, with the immediate 2026 season expected to be postseason competitive).

As for comps, the two deals you could look are the Burnes deal (ace-level pitcher but not as good as Skubal) and the last Soto deal (elite MVP caliber player, but not a SP). The brewers were competitive in 2024. 

But I’m not sure the brewers are popping champagne today based on the dudes they got in return for Burnes. Joey Ortiz was good last year, but not great. 

I don’t know enough about how the return for Soto is working out for SD, but Michael King is pretty nice to have, I guess. I don’t think any of the other guys are any more than fungible dudes. SD was competitive in 2024. King was very good last year and has been just as good when healthy this year. SD was in a unique situation last year with a crowded outfield that included Soto and they really needed pitching. This might be a deal that the Yankees regret, and the padres might also wish they had done better for Soto. 
 

So, it’s really hard to make these deals. No one wants to end up like Baltimore and the Yankees with nothing to show for giving up their assets, and in some cases being substantially worse off. But from SD and Milwaukee perspective, SD is probably wishing they got more than one player of actual value in return for Juan Soto. Milwaukee likely wishes they had done better than Joey Ortiz. 
 

 

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, Shelton said:

But I’m not sure the brewers are popping champagne today based on the dudes they got in return for Burnes. Joey Ortiz was good last year, but not great. 

though at least Ortiz in still on the field.