Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Tiger337]

I hope I'm wrong, but some of these trade suggestions sound way too optimistic.  If the Tigers were to get one one impact prospect that has a strong chance of being good quickly, I'd be happy.  Of course, I haven't given up on the season yet.  Not giving up is a big part of the fun of sports.   

[LongLiveMaroth]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I hope I'm wrong, but some of these trade suggestions sound way too optimistic.  If the Tigers were to get one one impact prospect that has a strong chance of being good quickly, I'd be happy.  Of course, I haven't given up on the season yet.  Not giving up is a big part of the fun of sports.   

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/top-35-trade-candidates-for-the-2026-deadline.html

Of course, he’s a pure rental — Skubal isn’t signing an extension a few months in advance of what should be the largest pitching contract ever — but any team with legitimate World Series aspirations should be involved. Teams generally balk at surrendering top prospect talent for impending free agents, but players as good as Skubal don’t hit the market most years. Detroit should be able to net a top 25-50 prospect in the game as a headliner if they make him available.

Agreed, I worry a lot of you will be disappointed with the return if you are throwing out 2-3 top 100 prospects. My expectations based on certain teams would be below:

Dodgers: One of Sirota or Hope and then probably someone like Jackson Ferris and Chase Harlan
Brewers: Lara, Andrew Fischer
Toronto: Either Nimmala or Parker and Johnny King or Gage Stanifer

I just don't see getting multiple top 50 prospects for half a year even for someone like Skubal. If we get that great but I would prefer to be surprised vs disappointed.
 

[Tenacious D]

I’m in the camp that I’d prefer to trade him vs getting a pick, which is much more of a lottery ticket than a prospect who has demonstrated some level of professional success.

Just have to manage realistic expectations about what we can expect in return.

[Edman85]

Also, a pick depends on the rules staying the same next year... And who knows if they are given what we know about the CBA negotiations?

[monkeytargets39]

3 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

Gotta love the hyperbole.  It's not going to alter the team's direction for a decade if they were originally planning on keeping him all season and letting him go for a draft pick.  If anything, him getting hurt could positively help the long-term future as they may be able to sign him to a smaller short-term deal.

I said that because of how this season has played out and I believe it’s how you have to look at things going forward.

 

If we were back out front of the division comfortably and looking like a lock for the playoffs, they could continue staying the course.  But instead we have struggled most of the year and have had several key players regress.  Keith hasn’t taken a needed step forward, Torkelson is replacement level, Valdez hasn’t been ace caliber, Meadoes basically has a lost season, and Flaherty/Jansen/Finnegan/Vest/Holton have all regressed a lot.  If we were winning a lot—most of those probably wouldn’t be true.  Then add in the injuries.

 

You can’t at this point lose Skubal and then stand pat and run it back with some of these guys after the end of 2025 and how this year has gone.  We need to address RP/RF/1B/3B/SP going forward.  A Skubal trade should be able to comfortably address at least one of the position player spots and one of the pitcher spots.  
 

Let’s say hypothetically we can address RF and a capable 3-5 SP spot with a Skubal trade.  An RF acquisition pushes Carpenter to primary DH and likely puts Keith as the every day 3B and you hope he fully turns the corner as a hitter.  Now all we go into the offseason with is needing to upgrade the bullpen and looking at moving on from Torkelson.  Plus you have 100 million off the books now from traded/expired contracts.  Very doable and you have a roster that is cost controlled and competitive for the next 6-7 years.

 

If we don’t trade Skubal, you get a comp pick—which at best is probably gonna be 2-3 seasons away from helping.  Then you still need to address RP/RF/1B/3B/SP.  We probably look at extending Mize who will now be much more expensive because we acquired no pitching help, which limits the money that now would need to be spent to upgrade RF/1B/RP.  You’re probably once again then going to run it back with Torkelson and/or Carpenter in RF (nothing against Carp there, but now your DH is Keith and you need a legit solution and what ever 2B/3B spot McGonigle doesn’t play—and you’ll likely need a multi-year player until Rainer is ready.). Nothing against Lee/Anderson, but are we ready to ink them into the lineup of a contender?  So basically we would be running it back with largely the same group of starters next year outside of Clark in CF.  
 

The 5/6-9 spots in the order at the positions I’ve outlined have absolutely killed us this year along with the bullpen.  Those have to be upgraded going into next year.  If they aren’t, then why do we even pay Harris to GM the team?  Then you don’t know how the CBA will play out exactly, so making multiple big acquisitions in the offseason to fix those holes may become more difficult or complicated.  Add in the fact that Free Agents generally don’t want to come here without being overpaid, and you see that the best way to upgrade the roster to what we need to hit the ground running with the McGonigle/Dingler/Clark/Greene/Jobe/Melton/Keith core that we have set up is to quickly acquire the many of the remaining future spots via trade.  We will not have a better chance to do that than this deadline with Skubal and Mize being on the block.

 

Keeping Skubal the rest of the year and playing to make the playoffs sounds great, but we aren’t winning even with him on the mound because we can’t score, can’t protect a lead when we do score, and can’t play consistent defense.  So fix those problems first.
 

Expunge the Jones/Vierling/McKinstry/Outman/Torkelson/Rogers group and fill these spots with guys who give us a better look at winning. 

Edited June 26 by monkeytargets39

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, Hongbit said:

I want no part of Dalton Rushing.  

He isn’t a good enough player to get away with being such a ****.  

Even setting aside that he is a ****, his top end is middle of the order masher, not backup catcher to replace Jake. I suppose we could consider him at first, but we already have a first baseman and he's probably not any better than Tork there. (And yes, barring abject collapse—probably something like sub -1.0 WAR—I think we will be keeping Tork through 2028.) Plus he's another LHH, and do we want even more eggs in that basket? I don't know, I think we might consider trying to picking up a strong RHH hitter who can lace line drives all over the place, someone like Dillon Dingler but who plays outfield. 

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I hope I'm wrong, but some of these trade suggestions sound way too optimistic.  If the Tigers were to get one one impact prospect that has a strong chance of being good quickly, I'd be happy.  Of course, I haven't given up on the season yet.  Not giving up is a big part of the fun of sports.   

There are a couple things that could goose the return: a very active bidding war, which might happen since Skubal's the only kickass pitcher potentially on the block—something we can't control; and (2) we pay down the remaining $9+ million on the contract, which we do have some control over. And really, when it comes to maximizing our return on August 3, paying down the contract should be a no-brainer.

[Tenacious D]

If we do move Skubal’s contract, I like the idea of paying the balance to get a better return.  And if we don’t have to pay, look to add a contract (i.e., Tatis) if it doesn’t penalize us.  We don’t have to sell/tank, just need to move a generational talent that we can’t re-sign.

[Sports_Freak]

5 hours ago, monkeytargets39 said:

I said that because of how this season has played out and I believe it’s how you have to look at things going forward.

 

If we were back out front of the division comfortably and looking like a lock for the playoffs, they could continue staying the course.  But instead we have struggled most of the year and have had several key players regress.  Keith hasn’t taken a needed step forward, Torkelson is replacement level, Valdez hasn’t been ace caliber, Meadoes basically has a lost season, and Flaherty/Jansen/Finnegan/Vest/Holton have all regressed a lot.  If we were winning a lot—most of those probably wouldn’t be true.  Then add in the injuries.

 

You can’t at this point lose Skubal and then stand pat and run it back with some of these guys after the end of 2025 and how this year has gone.  We need to address RP/RF/1B/3B/SP going forward.  A Skubal trade should be able to comfortably address at least one of the position player spots and one of the pitcher spots.  
 

Let’s say hypothetically we can address RF and a capable 3-5 SP spot with a Skubal trade.  An RF acquisition pushes Carpenter to primary DH and likely puts Keith as the every day 3B and you hope he fully turns the corner as a hitter.  Now all we go into the offseason with is needing to upgrade the bullpen and looking at moving on from Torkelson.  Plus you have 100 million off the books now from traded/expired contracts.  Very doable and you have a roster that is cost controlled and competitive for the next 6-7 years.

 

If we don’t trade Skubal, you get a comp pick—which at best is probably gonna be 2-3 seasons away from helping.  Then you still need to address RP/RF/1B/3B/SP.  We probably look at extending Mize who will now be much more expensive because we acquired no pitching help, which limits the money that now would need to be spent to upgrade RF/1B/RP.  You’re probably once again then going to run it back with Torkelson and/or Carpenter in RF (nothing against Carp there, but now your DH is Keith and you need a legit solution and what ever 2B/3B spot McGonigle doesn’t play—and you’ll likely need a multi-year player until Rainer is ready.). Nothing against Lee/Anderson, but are we ready to ink them into the lineup of a contender?  So basically we would be running it back with largely the same group of starters next year outside of Clark in CF.  
 

The 5/6-9 spots in the order at the positions I’ve outlined have absolutely killed us this year along with the bullpen.  Those have to be upgraded going into next year.  If they aren’t, then why do we even pay Harris to GM the team?  Then you don’t know how the CBA will play out exactly, so making multiple big acquisitions in the offseason to fix those holes may become more difficult or complicated.  Add in the fact that Free Agents generally don’t want to come here without being overpaid, and you see that the best way to upgrade the roster to what we need to hit the ground running with the McGonigle/Dingler/Clark/Greene/Jobe/Melton/Keith core that we have set up is to quickly acquire the many of the remaining future spots via trade.  We will not have a better chance to do that than this deadline with Skubal and Mize being on the block.

 

Keeping Skubal the rest of the year and playing to make the playoffs sounds great, but we aren’t winning even with him on the mound because we can’t score, can’t protect a lead when we do score, and can’t play consistent defense.  So fix those problems first.
 

Expunge the Jones/Vierling/McKinstry/Outman/Torkelson/Rogers group and fill these spots with guys who give us a better look at winning. 

Good post. With the AL being so weak this season, even with our weak hitting, win half of those blown saves and we're right in the thick of both a wild card and the division. Not knowing when our offense will disappear for weeks at a time really is a problem though. Wasting good pitching is very frustrating.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

If we do move Skubal’s contract, I like the idea of paying the balance to get a better return.  And if we don’t have to pay, look to add a contract (i.e., Tatis) if it doesn’t penalize us.  We don’t have to sell/tank, just need to move a generational talent that we can’t re-sign.

Is San Diego looking to get out from under Tatis’s contract already? Do they consider him done done? I’d be really surprised to learn that. If our taking a bad contract off their hands is their goal, I would think they’d be far more insistent on unloading Jake Cronenworth on us.

Edited June 27 by chasfh

[AlaskanTigersFan]

There is 0% chance San Diego looks to move Tatis. No matter what. Unless he comes out and says he wants to murder the owner of the team in broad daylight, there is 0% chance of him moving. 

[NorthWoods]

2 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

There is 0% chance San Diego looks to move Tatis. No matter what. Unless he comes out and says he wants to murder the owner of the team in broad daylight, there is 0% chance of him moving. 

Fine, let's send some prospects to the Angels for Trout.

[Tenacious D]

16 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

There is 0% chance San Diego looks to move Tatis. No matter what. Unless he comes out and says he wants to murder the owner of the team in broad daylight, there is 0% chance of him moving. 

That’s false.  There has been speculation that they might want to move on from his and Machado’s contracts, among others.  They have a bloated payroll. They wouldn’t give him away, but might be swayed with a cost effective Kerry Carpenter and some good prospects to get out from his contract 

[Tiger337]

Tatis has not been the same hitter since his injury and PED suspension in 2022.  .965 OPS before 2022 and .789 OPS since.  He's still good enough where the Padres probably want to keep him for now, but his contract is terrible.  No team will want that contract.    

[Tenacious D]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Tatis has not been the same hitter since his injury and PED suspension in 2022.  .965 OPS before 2022 and .789 OPS since.  He's still good enough where the Padres probably want to keep him for now, but his contract is terrible.  No team will want that contract.    

What?  I was told SD would never trade him. 🙂 

You’re correct, though—there is risk with him.  Only 27, but has 3 dingers and a sub .400 slugging.  I’d still chance it.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/fernando-tatis-jr-665487?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb - This guy is a phaking super star. Sure his power is down this year, but his underlying stats show he's as good as ever just unlucky. If we could trade Skubal straight up for him, then Harris would be a God (meant in a totally non blasphmetic way). 

It's not happening. Even if he did threaten the Padres Owner in mid daylight, I doubt they'd move him..... You think the Pirates would trade Griffen for Skubal right now straight up? That's literally on the same level of absurdity for Tatis Jr being talked about.......

[chasfh]

19 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Tatis has not been the same hitter since his injury and PED suspension in 2022.  .965 OPS before 2022 and .789 OPS since.  He's still good enough where the Padres probably want to keep him for now, but his contract is terrible.  No team will want that contract.    

The contract is terrible if Tatis plays worse than he is doing right now. As it is, he is on pace for a 3+ win this year.

[monkeytargets39]

Why would we look to take on bloated contracts?  

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/fernando-tatis-jr-665487?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb - This guy is a phaking super star. Sure his power is down this year, but his underlying stats show he's as good as ever just unlucky. If we could trade Skubal straight up for him, then Harris would be a God (meant in a totally non blasphmetic way). 

It's not happening. Even if he did threaten the Padres Owner in mid daylight, I doubt they'd move him..... You think the Pirates would trade Griffen for Skubal right now straight up? That's literally on the same level of absurdity for Tatis Jr being talked about.......

I'm with you on Tatis's value, but I wouldn't trade him straight up for Skubal. That would be a win-win for the Padres: they get out from under the dollars, which is only a minor win in that they would get out from under his future production as well; and they would get Skubal for at least 2-1/2 months. I would want them to wince at least a little bit before agreeing to a deal, and that would have to include someone like Kash Mayfield, at minimum, along with Tatis.

In any event, Tatis has a full no-trade clause through 2028, so I would characterize the chances of his approving trade to Detroit as practically zero.

[Tiger337]

27 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The contract is terrible if Tatis plays worse than he is doing right now. As it is, he is on pace for a 3+ win this year.

He has 8 years left on him contract though.   Maybe "terrible" was too strong, but I don't think that contract is attractive to a lot of teams as there will be some bad years at the end of it.  He is injury prone so he may not age well.  He was injured in 2022 and 2024 abd given his odd lack up power this year, I think he he may not be fully healthy.  

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

He has 8 years left on him contract though.   Maybe "terrible" was too strong, but I don't think that contract is attractive to a lot of teams as there will be some bad years at the end of it.  He is injury prone so he may not age well.  He was injured in 2022 and 2024 abd given his odd lack up power this year, I think he he may not be fully healthy.  

I don't disagree that it is not attractive, and he will have sub-par seasons between now and the end, but I do believe he will put up a couple more 6-wins seasons, plus two or three more 4-6-win seasons, perhaps even this one. That would be ~30 wins across five of his final eight years. In my view, that would make his contract worth it.

[Tiger337]

Just now, chasfh said:

I don't disagree that it is not attractive, and he will have sub-par seasons between now and the end, but I do believe he will put up a couple more 6-wins seasons, plus two or three more 4-6-win seasons, perhaps even this one. That would be ~30 wins across five of his final eight years. In my view, that would make his contract worth it.

He should do that if he stays healthy and it would be worth it to the right team  It also depends on how long he maintains he defensive value.  That can go early and fast.  

[Tiger337]

I switched to the radio because it had the feel of a game which wasn't going to be a lot of fun and didn't require my full attention.  I guess I need to stay with the radio now.  

[Sports_Freak]

16 hours ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Why would we look to take on bloated contracts?  

Harris is all about building a team thru the draft and waiver wire. There's absolutely no way he would ever trade for Tatis. Even the talk is silly, not gonna happen. 100% guaranteed.

[NorthWoods]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

not gonna happen. 100% guaranteed.

And rightly so.