Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 1 hour ago, NorthWoods said: Depending on the return I am OK with it. 2-3 OF prospects and a flier on an arm. Utility player, 5th OF and a pitcher from rookie ball. Or keep him and allow Harris to pick his own player. Nobody is going to give Harris 2 ML prospect outfielders for a possible 2 month rental. Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 1 Posted July 1 34 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Don't listen to us. Aaron Ashby fully agrees with you on the value of the wins statistic. Seriously, You are one the best new posters here. I would give you the MTF Rookie of The Year award. Thank you. I sometimes get too passionate. I drive my family nuts....lol. I've sort of got the George Costanza thing that I'd like to be a GM......and am really about as qualified. Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 1 Posted July 1 2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: Utility player, 5th OF and a pitcher from rookie ball. Or keep him and allow Harris to pick his own player. Nobody is going to give Harris 2 ML prospect outfielders for a possible 2 month rental. We'll know in 30 days or so. Quote
1984Echoes Posted July 1 Posted July 1 3 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: ... Nobody is going to give Harris 2 ML prospect outfielders for a possible 2 month rental. Shakes Magic 8-Ball: "July, 2026: Dodgers trade Josue DePaula, Mike Sirota, and Emmett Sheehan to Tigers for Tarik Skubal." 1 Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 2 hours ago, NorthWoods said: I knew as I wrote it that people on here would seize on the wins statement. I'm well aware of advanced metrics and respect them but there is still a value to pitching innings and recording wins. It wasn't what fantasy is today but from following stats by box scores in TSN in the 60/70s to running/playing a form of fantasy baseball on Compuserve in 1981. I was buying Bill James baseball abstracts when sales were still in the 100s, I lived to see the next one come out. I've been a stathead before some here were a twinkle in somone's eye so I don't need to be lectured on how out of touch I am. I stand by my point that Mr Skubal has far to go to be a "generational talent", at this point he's a very dominating pitcher for a short term and so prone to injury that building a team around him verging on foolhardy. That's the reason I've been a staunch advocate of trading him for a year now, I don't trust his wing. IMO, a "generational talent" in a pitcher is somebody who does it for 12 to 15 years. JV...for sure. A no doubt hall of famer. Will Skubal be around long enough to be considered? I wouldn't bet against him. Wondering about his mechanics? People said the same exact thing about Scherzer. He's another "generational talent" and a sure hall of famer. Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Shakes Magic 8-Ball: "July, 2026: Dodgers trade Josue DePaula, Mike Sirota, and Emmett Sheehan to Tigers for Tarik Skubal." It's nice to dream. But the reality? The Dodgers are totally running away with their division and have a ead in the NL standings, as the top team. Given up the least runs in all of MLB and have scored the most. Their run differential is +157. The next closest team is Molwaukee at +122. The Dodgers dont need pitching. Giving up top prospects for Skubal? They're not stupid, if they wanted to trade quality prospects, the return would be much greater. Players under team control for possibly a few years. But if Harrus can swing it, do it. But as fans, expecting that return could lead to huge disappointment. The return for JV is still too fresh in some people's minds. Total disappointment. Quote
chasfh Posted July 1 Posted July 1 1 hour ago, monkeytargets39 said: Something else no one is really talking about is how likely it is that Skubal is going to probably trend down based off of his windup mechanics and moving pieces. That high leg kick probably won’t age well with how big he is. Yeah, but how much will that affect our ability to get the optimum offer for him by August 3? I wouldn’t think much. Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 1 Posted July 1 14 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: IMO, a "generational talent" in a pitcher is somebody who does it for 12 to 15 years. JV...for sure. A no doubt hall of famer. Will Skubal be around long enough to be considered? I wouldn't bet against him. Wondering about his mechanics? People said the same exact thing about Scherzer. He's another "generational talent" and a sure hall of famer. Clarifying statement before I'm reminded that similarity scores aren't the be all and end all....let's see the names that populate Scherzer's neighborhood and whether they would indicate he IS a generational talent: Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 1 Posted July 1 It seems to me that the list above is slightly more impressive than Mr. Skubal's neighborhood. Quote
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 1 Author Posted July 1 21 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Shakes Magic 8-Ball: "July, 2026: Dodgers trade Josue DePaula, Mike Sirota, and Emmett Sheehan to Tigers for Tarik Skubal." I think we'll get two of those three plus a flyer on someone else. Quote
chasfh Posted July 1 Posted July 1 3 hours ago, NorthWoods said: I knew as I wrote it that people on here would seize on the wins statement. I'm well aware of advanced metrics and respect them but there is still a value to pitching innings and recording wins. I’ve bailed on pitcher wins, but I’m with you on innings pitched. Pitching is all about getting outs, and a guy who can reliably get you a lot of outs is among the most valuable commodities. Anyone who can reliably get you outs across a lot of innings is the most valuable commodity. It’s why I think Logan Webb is almost criminally underrated as a pitcher by fans because he gets you 200 innings of outs every year even without striking out double digits a game. 1 Quote
monkeytargets39 Posted July 1 Posted July 1 5 minutes ago, chasfh said: Yeah, but how much will that affect our ability to get the optimum offer for him by August 3? I wouldn’t think much. Not much if any for a trade soon, but it’s a concern if you’re the team that signs him long term in the offseason Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 15 minutes ago, NorthWoods said: It seems to me that the list above is slightly more impressive than Mr. Skubal's neighborhood. We used to have a guy who posted here by the name of Jake. When JV was in his prime, this guy used to argue viciously that in his opinion, Justin wasn't an ace. So find another list....one with pitchers who have won back to back Cy Young awards. And then go ahead and tell me how Skubal somehow isn't special... Its like a 2012 Jake discussion. Quote
Tenacious D Posted July 1 Posted July 1 Tonight certainly didn’t hurt his value. Peak Skubal. 2 Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 1 Posted July 1 1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said: We used to have a guy who posted here by the name of Jake. When JV was in his prime, this guy used to argue viciously that in his opinion, Justin wasn't an ace. So find another list....one with pitchers who have won back to back Cy Young awards. And then go ahead and tell me how Skubal somehow isn't special... Its like a 2012 Jake discussion. I wouldn't argue that he's not an ace right now. Your ace pitcher doesn't automatically rise to the level of generational talent - which is what I'm arguing. Dave Rozema was the ace of the 1977 and 1978 Tigers with a WAR of 5.7 & 4.0 was he a generational talent? Those years were at 20 and 21 years old, think of what people would be saying today about him. Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: Tonight certainly didn’t hurt his value. Peak Skubal. I wish I could find some of the experts from the old MTS who insisted, when we acquired him, that the violent delivery of Max Scherzer meant he would blow his arm out within a few years. They're still waiting... Will Skubal be a Cy Young quality pitcher for the length of a 10 year contract? I say no way. But I also think he will be at a very high level for at least 4 or 5 of those years. And also a strong #3 type pitcher for a few more. And here is the kicker that people are ignoring....a top of the rotation pitcher in 4 years will be close to $60 million per season, IF contracts keep going up at the current pace. Skubal at $400 million for 10 years may very well end up being a bargain. Extend the guy...keep him in Detroit. Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 3 minutes ago, NorthWoods said: I wouldn't argue that he's not an ace right now. Your ace pitcher doesn't automatically rise to the level of generational talent - which is what I'm arguing. Dave Rozema was the ace of the 1977 and 1978 Tigers with a WAR of 5.7 & 4.0 was he a generational talent? Those years were at 20 and 21 years old, think of what people would be saying today about him. Dave Rozema was also a major flake. Used a brillo pad to wash a brand new car cause teammates told him it was good to do. And, I don't remember his Cy Young years. Really reaching comparing Skubal to Dave Rozema...seriously?? Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 So, what I'm hearing is Tarik Skubal isn't very good and never will be. But we're going to get an entire ML outfield for 2 months of his service from the best run team in baseball. Make it make sense...lol Quote
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 1 Author Posted July 1 1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said: So, what I'm hearing is Tarik Skubal isn't very good and never will be. But we're going to get an entire ML outfield for 2 months of his service from the best run team in baseball. Make it make sense...lol Bro, I like you and normally you'/re right on top of it..... No one is saying Skubal is bad......... We are saying what we can get for him outweighs keeping him for the rest of the season.... pretty much that's the entire argument from oeveroyne........ Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 1 Posted July 1 39 minutes ago, chasfh said: I’ve bailed on pitcher wins, but I’m with you on innings pitched. Pitching is all about getting outs, and a guy who can reliably get you a lot of outs is among the most valuable commodities. Anyone who can reliably get you outs across a lot of innings is the most valuable commodity. It’s why I think Logan Webb is almost criminally underrated as a pitcher by fans because he gets you 200 innings of outs every year even without striking out double digits a game. The new pitching Triple Crown should be IP, ERA and K. Yes, there are some better saber stats than that, but I am trying to keep it simple. Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 33 minutes ago, NorthWoods said: I wouldn't argue that he's not an ace right now. Your ace pitcher doesn't automatically rise to the level of generational talent - which is what I'm arguing. Dave Rozema was the ace of the 1977 and 1978 Tigers with a WAR of 5.7 & 4.0 was he a generational talent? Those years were at 20 and 21 years old, think of what people would be saying today about him. So Rozema flaked out and that means Skubal i wont potch for 10 more seasons. OK...I see your logic .. Quote
Tenacious D Posted July 1 Posted July 1 32 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: I wish I could find some of the experts from the old MTS who insisted, when we acquired him, that the violent delivery of Max Scherzer meant he would blow his arm out within a few years. They're still waiting... Will Skubal be a Cy Young quality pitcher for the length of a 10 year contract? I say no way. But I also think he will be at a very high level for at least 4 or 5 of those years. And also a strong #3 type pitcher for a few more. And here is the kicker that people are ignoring....a top of the rotation pitcher in 4 years will be close to $60 million per season, IF contracts keep going up at the current pace. Skubal at $400 million for 10 years may very well end up being a bargain. Extend the guy...keep him in Detroit. He might re-sign, but not before he tests free agency. He’s on the players association board and has Boras as his agent. He’s going to free agency. The question is will we be willing to take the risk that we can retain him or accept a draft pick as the consolation prize. 1 Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 23 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said: Bro, I like you and normally you'/re right on top of it..... No one is saying Skubal is bad......... We are saying what we can get for him outweighs keeping him for the rest of the season.... pretty much that's the entire argument from oeveroyne........ What I'm seeing is a list comparing Skubal to other pitchers that really weren't very good. So to think the best run team in all of baseball will give up multiple talented players for 2 months of his service doesn't really make sense. I mean, what could we get for Dave Rozema in 1977...lmao Quote
papalawrence Posted July 1 Posted July 1 48 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: Tonight certainly didn’t hurt his value. Peak Skubal. And with a newer wrinkle in that curve. He had great control of it today Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 1 Posted July 1 2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: He might re-sign, but not before he tests free agency. He’s on the players association board and has Boras as his agent. He’s going to free agency. The question is will we be willing to take the risk that we can retain him or accept a draft pick as the consolation prize. Exactly. If Hartis thinks he can draft a player better than what's offered for him, he should do it. But all the speculation of possible returns for him will either lead to disappointment or criticism of Harris. Most of the "experts" that write articles about trade possibilities are click bait. Read the articles and load the ads. Quote
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