2025-2026 Predictions

[4hzglory]

10 minutes ago, KL2 said:

He's a third round pick. 90 percent never amount to anything

And if anything, Martin is a bigger bust from that class considering they moved up for him.

[RedRamage]

17 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Is Hendon Hooker the biggest draft bust in Brad's tenure with the Lions? 

Probably so far. I'm sure there will be bigger busts at some point, but right now Hooker has to be considered the biggest given where he was selected (3rd) and what production we got out of him (zero).

I know a number of people have said he was only a 3rd round and not many of them make it and Brad has lot of other successes... which is all true, but I think that is some what besides the point. And I may have read the tone of the question wrong but in my mind the question of whether Hooker should be considered the biggest bust of Holmes tenure is a compliment, not a slight.

EVERY GM is going to have busts that they draft. If the biggest one Holmes has so far is a 3rd rounder that many people considered 1st round talent except for the injury, that's not bad at all.

[Jason_R]

3 hours ago, Jimbo said:

I think the defense definitely can be a top 10 defense.  I know we were top 7 in points allowed last year with all the injuries although I don't think the defense was a top 20 defense in true sense.  When you have a high scoring efficient offense, the other team doesn't have as much time to score and your field position is constantly bad.  I am not taking away from how good they played with all the injuries (I give so much credit to the coaches and players), I just think points allowed isn't always the best indicator.  

I don't think saying their offense could take a step back from last year and the team being better is taking anything away from there offense.  First, they had one of the best offenses ever in the NFL.  If they can play 70-90% of what they did last year, then I think this team will be dramatically better with the improvements on defense.  I really think (obviously not counting injuries) this defense can be a true top 5-10 defense.   

With the schedule.  I would go with a 12-5 record and winning the north and be a much better team.  Don't think they have a chance at the bye this year.

Well, you are right that on the one hand they were only 20th in yards allowed, but on the other hand they were 20th in yards allowed. So yes, they were by all available measures a top 20 defense last year, even though they lost a full starting defense to IR by the end of the season. 

If anything, their high scoring offense contributed to giving up a lot of yards. Every QB they played last year had to try to be Stat Padford. 

We were all stung by the way the season ended. It will be unlikely that the team faces the worst defensive injury luck possibly in NFL history. Yes, this is a top-20 defense and when all is said and done it is more likely to be the top defense in 2025 than being outside of the top 20 defenses. 

[KL2]

2 hours ago, RedRamage said:

Probably so far. I'm sure there will be bigger busts at some point, but right now Hooker has to be considered the biggest given where he was selected (3rd) and what production we got out of him (zero).

I know a number of people have said he was only a 3rd round and not many of them make it and Brad has lot of other successes... which is all true, but I think that is some what besides the point. And I may have read the tone of the question wrong but in my mind the question of whether Hooker should be considered the biggest bust of Holmes tenure is a compliment, not a slight.

EVERY GM is going to have busts that they draft. If the biggest one Holmes has so far is a 3rd rounder that many people considered 1st round talent except for the injury, that's not bad at all.

Literally you have to go 100 more picks after him to find an impactful player. He is no way shape or form a bust cause he wasn't picked high enough. He was a lottery ticket. Most don't pan out. He didn't either. 

[RatkoVarda]

using a 3rd on Hooker was a totally reasonable roll of the dice

[RedRamage]

52 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Literally you have to go 100 more picks after him to find an impactful player. He is no way shape or form a bust cause he wasn't picked high enough. He was a lottery ticket. Most don't pan out. He didn't either. 

So are you saying you get good value from a lottery ticket that doesn't win?

Look, I fully understand that most draft picks don't end up becoming productive NFL players and even fewer become star players. I'm also not saying that it was a bad gamble. I thought it was a good pick at the time and I supported it.

But in hindsight the production we got from the picket was zero. It was a relatively low value we spent on what could have been a very high return. But it didn't work out and therefore it was, ultimately, a bad pick. That doesn't mean Holmes suck. That doesn't mean we shouldn't take risks. That doesn't mean anything more than we put some value into the pick and we got zero out of it. Even a non-impactful player who is a ST guy would have given us more value than Hooker. There's no shame in look at the pick 2.5 years later and saying: "Yep, it was a reasonable gamble, but it didn't pay out so in hindsight we should have done something different."

It's okay to call it a bust without saying that Holmes is a bad GM or that he's making bad decisions. 

[RedRamage]

40 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

using a 3rd on Hooker was a totally reasonable roll of the dice

I absolutely agree. I thought it was a good pick at the time and I still think it was reasonable. Let me try to explain my thoughts another way:

There's a $1M lottery with 2 million tickets available for sale and tickets cost $1 each. I'm gonna spend $10K on tickets... oops, none of them won. That was a bad decision and a waste of money.

You, on the other hand, spent $3 on tickets and oops, none of them won. That was a bad decision and a waste of money, but it was a low waste. In hindsight we know that you didn't win and if you had that knowledge ahead of time you could have saved yourself $3. So it's still a bad decision, but it's a minor bad decision. Nothing like my $10K bad decision.

The reward was high, the risk was relatively low... but in hindsight it was a bad decision.

[Motor City Sonics]

2 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

using a 3rd on Hooker was a totally reasonable roll of the dice

Yeah,  It's a bust, but nothing too team-altering.   They gambled on a few players and won so they need to get an L sometimes too. 

 

I am on the verge of calling Levi a pretty big bust.   You need more out of a 2nd round pick, especially a higher pick.    It may be a health thing, but even when he was healthy he didn't seem too impactful.    I feel like when you are bad and drafting high, you need more than a rotational guy from the 2nd round.  

 

[Jason_R]

Pro Football Reference lists draft picks according to Weighted Average Value. I don't know how it is calculated, but for reference Jahmyr Gibbs shows up as 27, Sam LaPorta as 17, Jack Campbell as 13, Brian Branch as 12. Other notables in that draft are CJ Stroud at 24, Will Anderson at 18, Bijan Robinson at 21.

Hendon Hooker shows up at zero. Even Brodric Martin shows up as 1. Of 34 other players drafted behind Hooker in the 3rd round (including comp picks), only three had zero career value.  Only three in the 4th round had zero career value. It's not like this part of the draft was a crap shoot. Almost anybody they would have picked other than Hooker would have been a better pick. But Holmes is still on a trajectory to be one of the best drafters in NFL history so...

[holygoat]

On 8/26/2025 at 6:27 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

I don't think Detroit's defense is anywhere close to the Top 5.  I think it could be in the bottom 10, but I guess we'll see. 

What are you basing bottom 10 on?

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I was OK with the Hooker pick when they took him and even mocked him to the Lions, believing if he fell they could trade back and get him. It was a bad pick, Brad's worse thus far I think.

In hindsight, if they were always committed to Goff, than the pick doesn't really make a lot of sense. Were they ever really planning on having Hooker start over Goff and let Jared walk at some point? Given how they've valued Goff, that doesn't seem to be the case. 

I don't know how much of a need we would have had for a guy like Tank Dell at WR, given the we picked Jaemo, but pre-injury, Dell would have been a better pick. Byron Young at DE would have been a better choice too. Kobie Turner at DE and YaYa Diaby would have been better choices as well. So there were guys there that would have clearly been better picks and fit a need this organization had. 

Brad should get criticism for the pick as he amounted to less than nothing, but not roasted over it because it's not franchise altering.