2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[papalawrence]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't know if it's REALLY low, but it's on the low side.  I could easily see them finishing 7th behind Tor, NY, Bos, Cle, Sea, Hou.  I guess another team like kansas City could sneak in there.  

They listed all of those teams and Baltimore

[Edman85]

Rogers might be bubble material, but it has nothing to do with Nido re-signing.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Rogers might be bubble material, but it has nothing to do with Nido re-signing.

Jake is a pretty ideal backup catcher. I suppose if they think his bat is totally toast then maybe he's too expensive but they could do a lot worse.

[Tiger337]

16 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

They listed all of those teams and Baltimore

They've still got quite a bit of young talent that could develop, but it seems a stretch to project them higher than the Tigers.  

[Tigermojo]

58 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Rogers might be bubble material, but it has nothing to do with Nido re-signing.

You think there's only one roster spot for Rogers/Liranzo? Or neither and go with Briceno?

[SoCalTiger]

I can’t imagine Harris not protecting Bricineo and Lorenzo. 

[Edman85]

14 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

I can’t imagine Harris not protecting Bricineo and Lorenzo. 

Briceno doesn't need protected.

[Tenacious D]

Tigers dont have to worry about catching this offseason—Dingler and Rogers are set. Nido is Toledo, Briceno and Liranzo are in the minors this year.

[chasfh]

6 hours ago, Archie said:

If Skubal was traded this winter the Tigers should get at least two established players and a prospect or two. If Harris trades Skubal for a couple of highly rated but unproven prospects he should be fired.  The idea of trading Skubal this winter is to get the best return. They will be able to get prospects in July. 

Sorry to disappoint you, but we’re not trading Skubal this winter. 😉

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

Yes this is opposite my understanding which I note could be wrong but if the computer is calling balls and strikes does it matter at all how the pitch is caught? I thought it’s either in the box or not. My assumption was catchers and framing well be less valuable. 

Where it matters is whether the batter will call for the challenge. Because determining whether the ball is a strike below the zone is harder than in other areas, it will be harder to call for a challenge below the zone than inside, outside, or above the zone, and the cost of being wrong on the challenge is high. So a catcher will probably benefit more by framing pitches below the zone than above it or to either side.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I guess my question to chasfh would actually boil down to whether it's possible for catchers to do any more 'framing' than they are doing now even if there may be some additional benefit to it on certain pitches that aren't challenged.

Catchers will not be doing more framing. They will be doing less framing. They will also not be doing no framing.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't know if it's REALLY low, but it's on the low side.  I could easily see them finishing 7th behind Tor, NY, Bos, Cle, Sea, Hou.  I guess another team like kansas City could sneak in there.  

We can’t know how low it is because we don’t know what all the teams will look like next March 25.

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

They've still got quite a bit of young talent that could develop, but it seems a stretch to project them higher than the Tigers.  

Apparently, they’ve calculated that more people are winning to bet on Baltimore to win than Detroit.

[Screwball]

Why would a catcher worry about framing with an electronic strike zone? He's not fooling the batter, he can't see what he does.

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Why would a catcher worry about framing with an electronic strike zone? He's not fooling the batter, he can't see what he does.

Almost all pitches will still be called by the umpire so framing is still going to matter on any pitch close enough that the batter will not have the confidence to challenge, and I imagine a good number of batters will be ordered by their manager not to challenge any pitch because they are known to not have a good enough eye or possibly not enough situational analysis IQ not to waste the challenges.

[chasfh]

13 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Why would a catcher worry about framing with an electronic strike zone? He's not fooling the batter, he can't see what he does.

Because it’s a challenge system, not fully robo umpires, so catchers will still frame to get border calls and dare the batter to call for a challenge, putting the batter at risk of being wrong and losing a challenge for his team.

[Screwball]

OK, that makes sense.

So we have a kind of semi-electonic strike zone. Or a semi-umpire strike zone. Not sure which.

This is too complicated. 🙂

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

We can’t know how low it is because we don’t know what all the teams will look like next March 25.

Of course not, but odds are being made now.  As of now, I wouldn't project the Tigers to finish behind the Orioles.   Then again, the betting odds likely look at things a very different way than I would.  

[chasfh]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Of course not, but odds are being made now.  As of now, I wouldn't project the Tigers to finish behind the Orioles.   Then again, the betting odds likely look at things a very different way than I would.  

That’s exactly it. These are betting odds, not objective assessments of the relative strengths of teams and organizations versus one another. It’s a prediction of how the mob bets today.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Because it’s a challenge system, not fully robo umpires, so catchers will still frame to get border calls and dare the batter to call for a challenge, putting the batter at risk of being wrong and losing a challenge for his team.

Do we know that framing statistics are the result of framing or could it be something else?  For example, perhaps some teams know that you need to pitch to certain locations way with a certain umpire behind the plate?  I know that framing is part of it, but maybe not as much as we think.  

Edited November 1 by Tiger337

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Do we know that framing statistics are the result of framing or could it be something else?  For example, perhaps some teams know that you need to pitch to certain locations way with a certain umpire behind the plate?  I know that framing is part of it, but maybe not as much as we think.  

Or maybe more than we think. Who knows.

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Or maybe more than we think. Who knows.

true

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Do we know that framing statistics are the result of framing or could it be something else?  For example, perhaps some teams know that you need to pitch to certain locations way with a certain umpire behind the plate?  I know that framing is part of it, but maybe not as much as we think.  

Not only locations but particular pitches. On a given day an ump may be more give of the outside on a slider than a fastball or tend to be fooled by backup movement on the change etc - so there is a lot for the teams to slice and dice in terms of umpire tendencies. OTOH I think the probability is that umpire tendencies are often quite transient as opposed to  reproducible from game to game, and the most successful catchers and pitchers are 'reading' and adjusting on the fly. That's might be the piece that ABS impacts the most, because this year you might deliberately target just off the plate because  the ump is giving you the call, but when you know the batter can challenge, how much is it worth the risk of it ending up a wasted pitch (i.e. challenged into a ball)? Has to change the thought process at least at the margins.

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Not only locations but particular pitches. On a given day an ump may be more give of the outside on a slider than a fastball or tend to be fooled by backup movement on the change etc 

It also depends on whether the hitter is right or left handed. Sliders heading for the LHB box’s corner and diving out of the zone at the last millisecond in the same way tend to get called strikes on right handed batters and balls on left handed hitters.

[casimir]

18 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Watching Tigers Territory today. They said early Vegas pennant odds have Detroit 8th in the AL. Maybe they expect Skubal gone, or more likely, they see the holes on the team. Probably factoring in both. They stressed that it shows Det needs to take steps this off-season to improve. Also has me pondering throwing small wager on Detroit now.

I'm not as worried about Vegas pennant odds as I am remembering how things fell apart after the all star game and knowing where they need to address their weaknesses.