2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[Graterol]

5 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Not interested in Kim.

He adds nothing to the team we don't already have.

Bregman adds.

Bichette adds.

Tucker adds.

Just my 2 cents.

Kim adds everything this team is lacking. Acceptable SS defense. RH bat. Relatively cheap contract. He is the best fit in FA.

[Graterol]

I know others have suggested it, but I wonder what Carpenter would fetch in a trade. Given his defense and big platoon split, he really hurts roster construction.

Also, what do we do with Jung, Lee, and Anderson? I don’t mind Anderson in the Ibanez role, but all 3 are not good enough to start but too good to give away. Jung especially needs a change of scenery I think.

[chasfh]

46 minutes ago, Graterol said:

I know others have suggested it, but I wonder what Carpenter would fetch in a trade. Given his defense and big platoon split, he really hurts roster construction.

Also, what do we do with Jung, Lee, and Anderson? I don’t mind Anderson in the Ibanez role, but all 3 are not good enough to start but too good to give away. Jung especially needs a change of scenery I think.

Given his defense and big platoon split, I don't think he'd bring back as much as we'd like. But I'm willing to give Harris a chance to show us what Carpenter could bring back.

[Archie]

4 hours ago, Graterol said:

I know others have suggested it, but I wonder what Carpenter would fetch in a trade. Given his defense and big platoon split, he really hurts roster construction.

Also, what do we do with Jung, Lee, and Anderson? I don’t mind Anderson in the Ibanez role, but all 3 are not good enough to start but too good to give away. Jung especially needs a change of scenery I think.

I don't know how much he would bring in a trade but I think he would do fine against LH pitchers if Hinch played him regular instead of benching him all the time.  He has shown some good results against LHP so its another bad managerial decision.  He isn't a gold glove fielder but his defense is sufficient too.  They need his bat in the lineup since he is the only player on the team that opposing managers fear at the plate.

[papalawrence]

4 hours ago, Graterol said:

I know others have suggested it, but I wonder what Carpenter would fetch in a trade. Given his defense and big platoon split, he really hurts roster construction.

Also, what do we do with Jung, Lee, and Anderson? I don’t mind Anderson in the Ibanez role, but all 3 are not good enough to start but too good to give away. Jung especially needs a change of scenery I think.

He just turned down a 16 mil contract. Probably looking for 2/32 or more. Lifetime ops .701 and ops+ 97. He is an upgrade over Sweeney. I just don't think he moves the needle much

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, papalawrence said:

He just turned down a 16 mil contract. Probably looking for 2/32 or more. Lifetime ops .701 and ops+ 97. He is an upgrade over Sweeney. I just don't think he moves the needle much

For what it's worth, Kim is projected for 2.4 WAR on FanGraphs.  The only Tigers with higher projections are Greene 3.3 and Dingler 2.8 

[gehringer_2]

9 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

For what it's worth, Kim is projected for 2.4 WAR on FanGraphs.  The only Tigers with higher projections are Greene 3.3 and Dingler 2.8 

weird, they apparently are assuming a huge defensive regression for Torkelson. He was a measely -1 OAA net at statcast and 0 Rdrs. Not GG but OTOH but they are projecting him -12(!) dWAR. Where does that come from?

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, Archie said:

I don't know how much he would bring in a trade but I think he would do fine against LH pitchers if Hinch played him regular instead of benching him all the time.  He has shown some good results against LHP so its another bad managerial decision.  He isn't a gold glove fielder but his defense is sufficient too.  They need his bat in the lineup since he is the only player on the team that opposing managers fear at the plate.

Carpenter in 2025:

• vs RHP: .257/.300/.512, 120 sOPS+ in 401 PA
• vs LHP: .217/.238/.400, 78 sOPS+ in 63 PA

Defense:

• Fielding Run Value: -3 (30th percentiles)
• Range/OAA: -3 (21st %);
• Arm Value: -1 (43rd %)

Kerry Carpenter has been quite good enough for us the past couple of years, but make no mistake, he is not Mr. Right. He’s Mr. Right Now.

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

weird, they apparently are assuming a huge defensive regression for Torkelson. He was a measely -1 OAA net at statcast and 0 Rdrs. Not GG but OTOH but they are projecting him -12(!) dWAR. Where does that come from?

That includes -12 positional adjustment for being a first baseman.  So, they expect him to be an average first baseman.

 

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

weird, they apparently are assuming a huge defensive regression for Torkelson. He was a measely -1 OAA net at statcast and 0 Rdrs. Not GG but OTOH but they are projecting him -12(!) dWAR. Where does that come from?

Nobody has ever clocked twelve below at dWAR in a single season, so I’m thinking that’s probably defensive runs instead.

Tork does have a history of hanging around that particular number—FG says he was right at that number in 2025. And his range ain’t getting any better. I’ll allow it.

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

That includes -12 positional adjustment for being a first baseman.  So, they expect him to be an average first baseman.

 

That seems disproportionate to me considering the how bad a truly bad (i.e Prince Fielder) can be for your team D..

Edited Sunday at 01:50 PM by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

35 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

That seems disproportionate to me considering the how bad a truly bad (i.e Prince Fielder) can be for your team D..

So Fielder would lose points for his bad defense too.  An average first baseman is considered to have 12.5 runs per 162 games fewer runs of value to his team than average fielder across the defensive spectrum.  If Fielder was 10 runs below the average first baseman, then he would have a total of 22.5 runs subtracted.     

[alex]

10 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

For what it's worth, Kim is projected for 2.4 WAR on FanGraphs.  The only Tigers with higher projections are Greene 3.3 and Dingler 2.8 

Agreed. If healthy he would help. He can field, decent has some speed and a projected 2.4 WAR would help.

Edited Sunday at 02:42 PM by alex

[Sports_Freak]

22 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Not interested in Kim.

He adds nothing to the team we don't already have.

Bregman adds.

Bichette adds.

Tucker adds.

Just my 2 cents.

If you set your sights on these 3 players, you're going to be very disappointed. There's absolutely no way the Tigers will spend that kind of money. Keep looking for inexpensive players on 1 to 2 year contracts. Or young, inexperienced and cost controlled players.

[Archie]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Carpenter in 2025:

• vs RHP: .257/.300/.512, 120 sOPS+ in 401 PA
• vs LHP: .217/.238/.400, 78 sOPS+ in 63 PA

Defense:

• Fielding Run Value: -3 (30th percentiles)
• Range/OAA: -3 (21st %);
• Arm Value: -1 (43rd %)

Kerry Carpenter has been quite good enough for us the past couple of years, but make no mistake, he is not Mr. Right. He’s Mr. Right Now.

You can see how few ABs he's had against LHP.  He has had some key hits against them and I wouldn't take him out against LHP.  Every time Hinch does he falls into the trap set by the opposing mgr taking one of, if not their best hitter out of the game. 

[chasfh]

30 minutes ago, Archie said:

You can see how few ABs he's had against LHP.  He has had some key hits against them and I wouldn't take him out against LHP.  Every time Hinch does he falls into the trap set by the opposing mgr taking one of, if not their best hitter out of the game. 

Carpenter has few ABs against LHP for a reason, and it's not because Hinch sucks.

Try though we might, we can't simply wish Carpenter into becoming a good hitter against LHP.

[4hzglory]

34 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Carpenter has few ABs against LHP for a reason, and it's not because Hinch sucks.

Try though we might, we can't simply wish Carpenter into becoming a good hitter against LHP.

He was fairly decent against Lh all through the minors and still hits for power against them.  I do think it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as I trusted him against LH more than Greene the last few months.

Edited Sunday at 05:48 PM by 4hzglory

[casimir]

Carpenter has a .606 OPS in 197 MLB PAs vs LHP over 4 seasons.  Hardly seems conclusive enough to not use him lower in a starting lineup vs LHP.  On the other hand, the versatility of the Tigers have allowed Hinch to deploy Carpenter as a PH vs RHP at different spots if/when needed.

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

He was fairly decent against Lh all through the minors and still hits for power against them.  I do think it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as I trusted him against LH more than Greene the last few months.

That may be, although on balance, left-handed pitchers in the minors are substantially more hittable than left-handed pitchers in the majors.

Look, I want Carpenter to be a good hitter against left-handed pitchers as much as the next guy does. It's just that despite all the chances he has gotten to demonstrate as much, he has not been able to deliver on the opportunity. His 78 sOPS+ this year is basically the same as it was in 2023 (81) and 2022 (67), so he has simply not been improving at it.

It's fair to a point to wonder whether the Tigers have given Carpenter every opportunity needed to demonstrate that he can improve against LHBs. But it's hard to take seriously any insistence that Hinch is simply blind to Carpenter, or has it in for Carpenter, or is simply too stupid (or, more probably, too analytically ideological) to see just how good Carpenter could be if only we penciled him into the lineup against LHPs every single time. You know, just throw him in there and he's bound to improve at some point, isn't he?

But the team's coaches have watched Carpenter hit morning, noon and night practically every day for eight months running during each of the past four years; we see him only during actual games, and even then, only when we actually watch them. And oftentimes our opinions are influenced in his favor because we remember seeing discrete events such as this or this or this. (Just for fun, listen to what the Yankees analyst had to say about Carpenter after that last one.)

So I gotta believe that Tigers coaches have seen enough to know that Carpenter's is just not going to get any better at hitting left-handers on a real ongoing basis, and no amount of wishcasting is going to change that.

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, chasfh said:

That may be, although on balance, left-handed pitchers in the minors are substantially more hittable than left-handed pitchers in the majors.

Look, I want Carpenter to be a good hitter against left-handed pitchers as much as the next guy does. It's just that despite all the chances he has gotten to demonstrate as much, he has not been able to deliver on the opportunity. His 78 sOPS+ this year is basically the same as it was in 2023 (81) and 2022 (67), so he has simply not been improving at it.

It's fair to a point to wonder whether the Tigers have given Carpenter every opportunity needed to demonstrate that he can improve against LHBs. But it's hard to take seriously any insistence that Hinch is simply blind to Carpenter, or has it in for Carpenter, or is simply too stupid (or, more probably, too analytically ideological) to see just how good Carpenter could be if only we penciled him into the lineup against LHPs every single time. You know, just throw him in there and he's bound to improve at some point, isn't he?

But the team's coaches have watched Carpenter hit morning, noon and night practically every day for eight months running during each of the past four years; we see him only during actual games, and even then, only when we actually watch them. And oftentimes our opinions are influenced in his favor because we remember seeing discrete events such as this or this or this. (Just for fun, listen to what the Yankees analyst had to say about Carpenter after that last one.)

So I gotta believe that Tigers coaches have seen enough to know that Carpenter's is just not going to get any better at hitting left-handers on a real ongoing basis, and no amount of wishcasting is going to change that.

In watching hitters over the years who do manage to move their platoon splits, my impression has been that often as not they make an adjustment in the box that has a real cost to their ability to hit the opposite pitching. The split closes with both an increase on the low side but also a decrease on the high side. With such a preponderance of RH pitching in the league, that usually just isn't a good trade-off for a LHB to make even if it means he is going to sit against a lot of LHP. OTOH, for RHH, giving up a little against left handers to stay in the line-up is a much better trade.

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

So Fielder would lose points for his bad defense too.  An average first baseman is considered to have 12.5 runs per 162 games fewer runs of value to his team than average fielder across the defensive spectrum.  If Fielder was 10 runs below the average first baseman, then he would have a total of 22.5 runs subtracted.     

Yeah - I get that, but since everyone *has* to play a 1B it seem to fly in the face of logic to automatically make a negative adjustment for the *average* quality player at that position across the board. OK - so as a formalism I can accept that you construct a model where that is a requirement for the numbers to come out, but to me that kind of oddity smacks of a deficiency of the model construction. An *average* fielding 1b isn't really costing you 12 runs in any real sense. By real world definitions the average 1b isn't adding or subtracting anything on the field.

I can see there is sort of a built in paradox here that there is probably no easy way around. Of course a SS is worth more defensively than a 1B, but OTOH, you can't actually play 9 SS. So you have to pick a baseline and either way you pick is going create an anomaly.

Edited Sunday at 07:00 PM by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yeah - I get that, but since everyone *has* to play a 1B it seem to fly in the face of logic to automatically make a negative adjustment for the *average* quality player at that position across the board. OK - so as a formalism I can accept that you construct a model where that is a requirement for the numbers to come out, but to me that kind of oddity smacks of a deficiency of the model construction. An *average* fielding 1b isn't really costing you 12 runs in any real sense. By real world definitions the average 1b isn't adding or subtracting anything on the field.

Wanna talk about deficiency in model construction? How about when a guy who is nothing but a DH, as Shohei Ohtani was in 2024, has a defensive WAR of -1.7, as he did last year? That suggests he lost almost two games for his team with his glove, even though he never touched a glove the entire season.

Now that one, I may never understand.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Wanna talk about deficiency in model construction? How about when a guy who is nothing but a DH, as Shohei Ohtani was in 2024, has a defensive WAR of -1.7, as he did last year? That suggests he lost almost two games for his team with his glove, even though he never touched a glove the entire season.

Now that one, I may never understand.

It doesn't suggest he lost two games with his glove.  It's all about valuation.  It means that he has a lot less defensive value (when he's not pitching) than someone that actually plays a position.  Do you think that a shortstop and DH with the same exact offensive statistics have the same value to a team?   

 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yeah - I get that, but since everyone *has* to play a 1B it seem to fly in the face of logic to automatically make a negative adjustment for the *average* quality player at that position across the board. OK - so as a formalism I can accept that you construct a model where that is a requirement for the numbers to come out, but to me that kind of oddity smacks of a deficiency of the model construction. An *average* fielding 1b isn't really costing you 12 runs in any real sense. By real world definitions the average 1b isn't adding or subtracting anything on the field.

I can see there is sort of a built in paradox here that there is probably no easy way around. Of course a SS is worth more defensively than a 1B, but OTOH, you can't actually play 9 SS. So you have to pick a baseline and either way you pick is going create an anomaly.

WAR is not about many runs a player cost his team.  It's about how easy it is to replace a player.  If a slick fielding shortstop and a DH with the same offensive statistics both get injured, which one is easier to is easier to replace?

If you want to know how many defensive runs a player cost his team based on a stat, you would use something like DRS. You would not use WAR for that. 

 

[1984Echoes]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It doesn't suggest he lost two games with his glove.  It's all about valuation.  It means that he has a lot less defensive value (when he's not pitching) than someone that actually plays a position.  Do you think that a shortstop and DH with the same exact offensive statistics have the same value to a team?   

 

I'm with Chas on this one.

-1.7 WAR for a DH reads as stupid.

Here's an easy fix:

Instead of assigning negatives for positions (1B -12???, DH -1.7???), add bonus points for more important positions.

DH starts at 0, finishes at 0.

1B starts at 0, actual results give actual numbers (speaking only to defensive WAR that is...).

Catcher, SS, and CF get +6, +12, +8 for positional value?

Just my 2 cents.

 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 08:41 PM by 1984Echoes