2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[Edman85]

29 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Michigan has a 4.25% flat rate income tax, which is probably a bit below avg, but generally high property taxes.

There ya go. Half the schedule is in a state where there isn't much benefit, perhaps a net negative, to the athlete to defer.

Edited 19 hours ago by Edman85

[buddha]

38 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Michigan has a 4.25% flat rate income tax, which is probably a bit below avg, but generally high property taxes.

illinois has 4.9 flat tax and even higher property taxes.  plus a monster sales tax in cook county.  plus the city of chicago and all its exrra fees and taxes....

and is still in so much debt it makes pre-bankruptcy detroit look solvent.

[buddha]

so will the cubs include shaw and cade horton as centerpieces for their skubal offee?

[oblong]

37 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Michigan has a 4.25% flat rate income tax, which is probably a bit below avg, but generally high property taxes.

Wonder how residency plays into that?  How many guys rent condos/ apartments?  They’re  hardly around during the season.  I suspect most live in the Woodward corridor, Royal Oak and Birmingham. Cabrera’s place was on the water in the Pointes.  I once saw a Kinsler photo on IG where the guys were in his backyard during a holiday coinciding with a full day off at home.  Looked like it could have been the Birmingham/Berkeley area based on the houses.  They certainly weren’t mansions. Backyard garages.  I don’t know why I think about this stuff.  In the 90s a lot of the younger guys lived in some apartments/condos in the Dearborn area. Sparky and Bo did too. 

[oblong]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

illinois has 4.9 flat tax and even higher property taxes.  plus a monster sales tax in cook county.  plus the city of chicago and all its exrra fees and taxes....

and is still in so much debt it makes pre-bankruptcy detroit look solvent.

Didn’t Chicago do something really stupid with regard to their parking revenue?  Turned an eventual billion dollar revenue stream for an upfront payment?  I saw something about it once.  

[gehringer_2]

oops - Forgot the Detroit City Income tax - 2.4% resident, 1.2% non resident. The City is addicted now of course, but that is a single factor that drove and keeps thousands of small businesses in the 'burbs. If they could ever get off it it would do wonders for small business dev. At the time of the bankruptcy I remember there was some discussion of the State ending all the MI city incomes taxes, but it didn't happen. 

Edited 19 hours ago by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, kdog said:

$70 million of Bregman's deal is deferred...someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the Tigers have done any deferrals in their deals under Harris.

I would bet players would have less tolerance for deferred money from the Tigers than they would from the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, or Giants.

[oblong]

15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

oops - Forgot the Detroit City Income tax - 2.4% resident, 1.2% non resident. The City is addicted now of course, but that is a single factor that drove and keeps thousands of small businesses in the 'burbs. If they could ever get off it it would do wonders for small business dev. At the time of the bankruptcy I remember there was some discussion of the State ending all the MI city incomes taxes, but it didn't happen. 

Isn’t or wasn’t there a population requirement to be able to implement such a tax but the state gave them a waiver? I have a population of 1M being it. 

[buddha]

27 minutes ago, oblong said:

Didn’t Chicago do something really stupid with regard to their parking revenue?  Turned an eventual billion dollar revenue stream for an upfront payment?  I saw something about it once.  

yes.  about 10-12 years ago, they sold the rights to our parking meter revenue to a third party (the saudis, i believe) for the next 75 years for $1 billion.

the investment has already returned $3 or $4 billion to the investors.  and it still has about 60 more years to go.

in the meantime, chicago allegedly put that $1 billion as a one time payment to its pension funds.  allegedly.  however, that was over 10 years ago and since then the pension debt continues to balloon.  chicago now has four or five of the lowest funded pension systems in the country, two of which are functionally insolvent.  and the city continues to add to the payrolls and to increase the pension benefits.

its a colossal cluster**** that will drive the city to bankruptcy at some point.  the current mayor is a boob beholden to the unions who just wants to increase payrolls and increase taxes "on rich people and corporations", while the republican party doesnt exist in chicago (there are no republicans on the city ballot) and the state republicans are a joke of a party (they continue to nominate maga people from downstate who will never, ever gain any traction in the chicago suburbs).

in other words.  were ****ed.  but the restaurant scene is pretty good...

[chasfh]

32 minutes ago, buddha said:

so will the cubs include shaw and cade horton as centerpieces for their skubal offee?

Doubtful they would include Cade Horton. I'm also coming around to the idea they keep Matt Shaw and his five years of control and instead send away Nico Hoerner, whom we can't use so much, and his final year before free agency.

If the Cubs were to make an offer for Skubal, I could see them offering Nico, Jaxon Wiggins, and lottery tickets. Pretty sure we would turn that down. I suppose we could include Gleyber in exchange for them adding someone like Kevin Alcantara. That would probably get us closer to something worth a return.

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, buddha said:

yes.  about 10-12 years ago, they sold the rights to our parking meter revenue to a third party (the saudis, i believe) for the next 75 years for $1 billion.

the investment has already returned $3 or $4 billion to the investors.  and it still has about 60 more years to go.

in the meantime, chicago allegedly put that $1 billion as a one time payment to its pension funds.  allegedly.  however, that was over 10 years ago and since then the pension debt continues to balloon.  chicago now has four or five of the lowest funded pension systems in the country, two of which are functionally insolvent.  and the city continues to add to the payrolls and to increase the pension benefits.

its a colossal cluster**** that will drive the city to bankruptcy at some point.  the current mayor is a boob beholden to the unions who just wants to increase payrolls and increase taxes "on rich people and corporations", while the republican party doesnt exist in chicago (there are no republicans on the city ballot) and the state republicans are a joke of a party (they continue to nominate maga people from downstate who will never, ever gain any traction in the chicago suburbs).

in other words.  were ****ed.  but the restaurant scene is pretty good...

Now do the Chicago Skyway.

[buddha]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

oops - Forgot the Detroit City Income tax - 2.4% resident, 1.2% non resident. The City is addicted now of course, but that is a single factor that drove and keeps thousands of small businesses in the 'burbs. If they could ever get off it it would do wonders for small business dev. At the time of the bankruptcy I remember there was some discussion of the State ending all the MI city incomes taxes, but it didn't happen. 

chicago keeps talking about implementing some sort of such tax.  so people working in the burbs have to pay a tax to work in the city.  they just shot down a "head tax" that would charge employers an extra fee per employee who worked in the city.

as you say, they are "addicted" to the revenue.  pensions and debt (from borrowing to pay the costs of the pensions they cannot afford) eat up almost 40% of the city's budget before they even start to count salaries and current services.

its unsustainable unless they grow the tax base.  but the current "progressive" administration doesnt understand that part.  they only understand "tax the rich (meaning anyone with a job) to help the "poor" (meaning anyone on the city payroll or a "victim" of "disinvestment", meaning black and brown people.)

its a mess.

[Stormin]

The Tigers annual revenue is around 300M (according to Forbes) and the 2026 player payroll is currently in the 180M to 190M. 

With that in mind, which of the long term ~150M+ available free agents are worth the investment and risk?

What free agents that can be signed for a less than a six figure deal are improvements relative to current players?

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

26 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

 

chicago keeps talking about implementing some sort of such tax

Unless a city is surrounded by water or  mountains, a city income tax is a business death sentence. In the midwest where there is open land and freeways? The arg when the city passed the tax was 'nobody is going to move over 1%' but of course that ignores how many businesses relocate every year as space and facilities needs change, and every percentage makes a difference in the decision about where to go next. So not an immediate death sentence, but a slow slide into negative growth. They keep talking about it in A^2. My response is always 'so Flint is your model for the future of Ann Arbor?'

[buddha]

free agency in general is not the way to build a team.  but signing an occasional difference maker for a contending team, or committing a long term deal to a difference maker just entering his prime are useful team building tools.

bregman LAST YEAR would have been such a player, but harris didnt get it done (and its possible bregman was not interested in detroit).  bregman THIS YEAR might not be such an investment.  i'd rather have them bring up mcgonigle and play him at third every day.  i suspect mcgonigle's numbers wont be far off bregman's in the very near future.

[gehringer_2]

Just now, buddha said:

free agency in general is not the way to build a team.  but signing an occasional difference maker for a contending team, or committing a long term deal to a difference maker just entering his prime are useful team building tools.

bregman LAST YEAR would have been such a player, but harris didnt get it done (and its possible bregman was not interested in detroit).  bregman THIS YEAR might not be such an investment.  i'd rather have them bring up mcgonigle and play him at third every day.  i suspect mcgonigle's numbers wont be far off bregman's in the very near future.

I'm not so worried about the 8 on the field. They field and run really well and hit enough. More certainly in CF would be nice but if McGonigle sticks some combination of Meadows, Baez and Vierling should do. I remain very nervous about the pitching staff.

[buddha]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

Unless a city is surrounded by water or  mountains, a city income tax is a business death sentence. In the midwest where there is open land and freeways? The arg when the city passed the tax was 'nobody is going to move over 1%' but of course that ignores how many businesses relocate every year as space and facilities needs change, and every percentage makes a difference in the decision about where to go next. So not an immediate death sentence, but a slow slide into negative growth. They keep talking about it in A^2. My response is always 'so Flint is your model for the future of Ann Arbor?'

illinois doesnt have a tax on services.  after pritzker is re-elected governor next year, i suspect they will change the law and implement a services tax.  that will bring in a considerable amount of revenue.

now, the smart thing to do would be to cut other taxes, but they wont.  instead - this being illinois - they will hire more union jobs, pay for construction projects that dont need to happen, pay for more teachers aides and more cops, and increase the pension debt even more with sweeteners and other goodies.

just like they did with covid money.  instead of using it for capital improvements, or for paying off debt, they used it to create more jobs.  more jobs that now require pensions and other continually incurring labor payments that they cannot afford now that the covid money has run out.

we are a city run by corruption, unions, and idiots.  

we get what we deserve.

[buddha]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm not so worried about the 8 on the field. They field and run really well and hit enough. More certainly in CF would be nice but if McGonigle sticks some combination of Meadows, Baez and Vierling should do. I remain very nervous about the pitching staff.

i suspect that they look at pitching in a tinstaapp sort of way.  drafting pitchers is very risky due to injury.  youre more likely to find a pitching prospect "in the rough" (like say...tarik skubal) than you are to get one at the top of the draft who avoids injury (like say...casey mize or jackson jobe).  so dont spend draft capital on pitchers and instead find pitchers via free agency/minor league free agents/scrap heap guys who you can rehabilitate (cobb, morton, paddack, maeda, flaherty).  pitchers are too risky an asset.  hitters are much easier to quantify.

just a theory.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, buddha said:

i suspect that they look at pitching in a tinstaapp sort of way.  drafting pitchers is very risky due to injury.  youre more likely to find a pitching prospect "in the rough" (like say...tarik skubal) than you are to get one at the top of the draft who avoids injury (like say...casey mize or jackson jobe).  so dont spend draft capital on pitchers and instead find pitchers via free agency/minor league free agents/scrap heap guys who you can rehabilitate (cobb, morton, paddack, maeda, flaherty).  pitchers are too risky an asset.  hitters are much easier to quantify.

just a theory.

This is a big difference between this and the prior regime. Say what ever else you will about Avila, he belived in drafting pitchers high and often exactly because they went down so often. I understand the other view but I'm not sure that just because there is a lot of uncertainly in doing it with great deliberation, that means you actually have any reasonable chance of assembling a play-off calibre pitching staff by chance pickups. 

I may be being unfair, as has been noted, Harris did pivot toward more pitching in the recent draft but they've had a lot of bad luck so we haven't seen anything out of it.

Edited 18 hours ago by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

Isn’t or wasn’t there a population requirement to be able to implement such a tax but the state gave them a waiver? I have a population of 1M being it. 

something like that. IIRC Way back, when the state first passed the enabling legislation for city income taxes it did specify the city had to be 1M population because nobody outstate wanted  their municipality starting one. Somehow that got changed/waived but I don't remember those details. Obviously Flint is nowhere near 1M and the city itself is now well under 1M and since they keep bringing it up in A^2 that requirement must just be gone.

[RatkoVarda]

19 hours ago, chasfh said:

That should spell the end of Matt Shaw in Chicago, although if the Cubs end up trading Nico Hoerner instead, they deserve to miss out on the playoffs next year.

Hoerner would be a fantastic fit. with Tucker moving on and Cassie traded, would the Cubs be interested in some LH power and trade 1 year of Hoerner for 3 years of Carpenter?

saves the Cubs, who are right at the CB tax level, about some money as well, about 9M.

[casimir]

4 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Hoerner would be a fantastic fit. with Tucker moving on and Cassie traded, would the Cubs be interested in some LH power and trade 1 year of Hoerner for 3 years of Carpenter?

saves the Cubs, who are right at the CB tax level, about some money as well, about 9M.

Where does Hoerner fit with the Tigers?  Savant is unkind to his arm, so SS/3B doesn't seem a fit.  2B is spoken for.  He doesn’t SO much, I like that.

[tiger2022]

Plus the local Chicago politicians need extra revenue from which they can embezzle and steal.  

[Motor City Sonics]

8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't see a pitching pipeline forming to support being good 3-5yrs from now. Maybe it's there in the lower levels waiting to break out - I'll be waiting.

I think the haul for Skubal factors in to that.  Plus Jobe and Melton (if they pan out).    So that's why Ranger Suarez for 6 years isn't that crazy, is it?   Depends on what he's asking for and maybe it's ridiculous.  

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I think the haul for Skubal factors in to that.  

So you are assuming a big future for that comp pick.....

😉

Edited 12 hours ago by gehringer_2