2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[Biff Mayhem]

3 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

Local internet tough guy.

You’re a riot. Now shine my shoes. 

[casimir]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Hao-Yu Lee is my dark horse candidate to be the starting third baseman on March 25.

Nope.  That’s a day off.  You lose.  Good day, sir.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

Nope.  That’s a day off.  You lose.  Good day, sir.

Oh yeah, ha ha, I suck, I didn't look it up, I went by my failing memory.

March 26.

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

Hao-Yu Lee is my dark horse candidate to be the starting third baseman on March 25.

that's a black stallion you got there.

[Tiger337]

5 hours ago, Biff Mayhem said:

You’re a riot. Now shine my shoes. 

[Stormin]

On 1/31/2026 at 3:28 PM, Stormin said:

FANGRAPHS ZiPS Projections for Tigers

• 2026: 83 Wins, 49.3% Playoff
• 2025 81 Wins, 30.7% Playoff (Actual, 87 Wins, Playoffs)
• 2024: 78 Wins, 24.8% Playoff (Actual 86 Wins, Playoffs)
• 2023: 70 Wins, 6.0% Playoff (Actual 78 Wins)
• 2022: 73 Wins, 3.5% Playoffs (Actual 66 Wins)

 

• 2026: 85 Wins, 66.2% Playoff   Framber Valdez Signing Establishes the Tigers as AL Central Favorites | FanGraphs Baseball

Edited 3 hours ago by Stormin

[ewsieg]

For what it's worth, I was playing with Gemini tonight.  Asked it about expected roster and to assume McGonigle made the team out of spring training, what should we expect this year?

-----------------------

If Kevin McGonigle breaks camp with the team and performs to his projections, the Detroit Tigers move from "wild card contenders" to 90-plus win territory and the clear favorites to win the AL Central.

Here is the statistical breakdown of what that record looks like and why:

The Win Total Projections

Current consensus projections (like FanGraphs and ZiPS) have the Tigers as an 87-75 team as currently constructed. However, those projections often "hedge" on rookies, assuming they start the year in Triple-A.

• The "McGonigle Bump": ZiPS projects McGonigle to produce 2.3 fWAR in only 399 plate appearances. If he plays a full season (550+ PAs), that value jumps to nearly 3.5–4.0 wins.

• The Expected Record: With McGonigle stabilizing shortstop, a 90–72 or 91–71 record becomes the new baseline. This would likely be enough to win the AL Central, as the Guardians are currently projected for 88 wins.

Why He Specifically Changes the Record

A "record" isn't just about total talent; it's about fixing specific weaknesses. McGonigle addresses the two biggest holes that cost the Tigers games in 2025:

The Problem	The McGonigle Solution	Impact on Wins
High Strikeout Rates: The 2025 lineup was 24th in MLB in K%.	McGonigle's projected 12.8% strikeout rate would be the lowest on the team.	Fewer wasted innings; more "productive outs."
Shortstop Defensive Volatility: In 2025, Tigers SS combined for only 1.4 fWAR (24th in MLB).	If he provides even league-average defense with his elite bat, he’s a massive upgrade.	Saves runs in tight, 1-run games.
The "Skubal Run Support": Skubal lost several games in 2025 despite giving up 2 runs or fewer.	A high-OBP bat in front of Greene and Torkelson ensures the Ace gets the wins he deserves.	Directly turns 3-4 "Tough Luck" losses into wins.

---

The "Rookie of the Year" Factor

There is a massive hidden benefit to him making the team: The Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI).

If McGonigle is on the Opening Day roster and wins AL Rookie of the Year (which he is currently the +350 favorite to do), the Tigers receive an extra first-round draft pick. This incentivizes the front office to be aggressive at the trade deadline because they know they have "extra" draft capital coming in.

The Risk Factor

The only reason the record wouldn't improve is the "Torkelson Effect"—if a young player is rushed and struggles with major-league breaking balls, it can create a "black hole" in the lineup for a month or two. However, scouts categorize McGonigle's 70-grade hit tool as "big-league ready" right now.

The Verdict: If McGonigle is at Shortstop on Opening Day, expect a 90-win season and a legitimate chase for the #1 or #2 seed in the American League.

Would you like me to look at the Tigers' schedule to see which teams McGonigle's contact-heavy style would match up best against in April?