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2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

Tiger337

By Tiger337
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MotownWebGuy
MotownWebGuy

I had few run-ins with Mickey Lolich over the years...  I grew up in the Rochester/Lake Orion area, so I remember his donut shops in both downtown Rochester and later in Lake Orion, which was right by

Tiger337
Tiger337

I really dislike the narrative that nobody can compete with the Dodgers.  This year's World Series was arguably the most competivive World Series in history.  It went seven games wiith one game going

Stormin
Stormin

If Colt Keith's throwing arm does not get injured again, and the Tigers can stop playing musical chairs with his fielding position,  I think Colt will be fine at third base.   He is an above average a

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Stormin Enthusiast

Stormin

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Posted (edited)
On 1/31/2026 at 3:28 PM, Stormin said:

FANGRAPHS ZiPS Projections for Tigers

  • 2026: 83 Wins, 49.3% Playoff
  • 2025 81 Wins, 30.7% Playoff (Actual, 87 Wins, Playoffs)
  • 2024: 78 Wins, 24.8% Playoff (Actual 86 Wins, Playoffs)
  • 2023: 70 Wins, 6.0% Playoff (Actual 78 Wins)
  • 2022: 73 Wins, 3.5% Playoffs (Actual 66 Wins)

 

Edited by Stormin
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ewsieg Grand Master

ewsieg

Posted
Posted

For what it's worth, I was playing with Gemini tonight.  Asked it about expected roster and to assume McGonigle made the team out of spring training, what should we expect this year?

-----------------------

If Kevin McGonigle breaks camp with the team and performs to his projections, the Detroit Tigers move from "wild card contenders" to 90-plus win territory and the clear favorites to win the AL Central.

Here is the statistical breakdown of what that record looks like and why:

The Win Total Projections

Current consensus projections (like FanGraphs and ZiPS) have the Tigers as an 87-75 team as currently constructed. However, those projections often "hedge" on rookies, assuming they start the year in Triple-A.

  • The "McGonigle Bump": ZiPS projects McGonigle to produce 2.3 fWAR in only 399 plate appearances. If he plays a full season (550+ PAs), that value jumps to nearly 3.5–4.0 wins.

  • The Expected Record: With McGonigle stabilizing shortstop, a 90–72 or 91–71 record becomes the new baseline. This would likely be enough to win the AL Central, as the Guardians are currently projected for 88 wins.

Why He Specifically Changes the Record

A "record" isn't just about total talent; it's about fixing specific weaknesses. McGonigle addresses the two biggest holes that cost the Tigers games in 2025:

The Problem The McGonigle Solution Impact on Wins
High Strikeout Rates: The 2025 lineup was 24th in MLB in K%. McGonigle's projected 12.8% strikeout rate would be the lowest on the team. Fewer wasted innings; more "productive outs."
Shortstop Defensive Volatility: In 2025, Tigers SS combined for only 1.4 fWAR (24th in MLB). If he provides even league-average defense with his elite bat, he’s a massive upgrade. Saves runs in tight, 1-run games.
The "Skubal Run Support": Skubal lost several games in 2025 despite giving up 2 runs or fewer. A high-OBP bat in front of Greene and Torkelson ensures the Ace gets the wins he deserves. Directly turns 3-4 "Tough Luck" losses into wins.

The "Rookie of the Year" Factor

There is a massive hidden benefit to him making the team: The Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI).

If McGonigle is on the Opening Day roster and wins AL Rookie of the Year (which he is currently the +350 favorite to do), the Tigers receive an extra first-round draft pick. This incentivizes the front office to be aggressive at the trade deadline because they know they have "extra" draft capital coming in.

The Risk Factor

The only reason the record wouldn't improve is the "Torkelson Effect"—if a young player is rushed and struggles with major-league breaking balls, it can create a "black hole" in the lineup for a month or two. However, scouts categorize McGonigle's 70-grade hit tool as "big-league ready" right now.

The Verdict: If McGonigle is at Shortstop on Opening Day, expect a 90-win season and a legitimate chase for the #1 or #2 seed in the American League.

Would you like me to look at the Tigers' schedule to see which teams McGonigle's contact-heavy style would match up best against in April?

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chasfh Grand Master

chasfh

Posted
Posted
On 1/31/2026 at 3:28 PM, Stormin said:

FANGRAPHS ZiPS Projections for Tigers

  • 2022: 73 Wins, 3.5% Playoffs (Actual 66 Wins)

Tigers beat their 2022 projection by seven games? Well, maybe Baby Doc was a little too hasty giving Al Avila the gate after all ...

🦆🦆🦆

Stormin Enthusiast

Stormin

Posted
Posted

In his Foul Territory interview, when discussing the shape of players coming into spring trading, AJ said "I have video of Tarik throwing 98 mph, Finnegan throwing 99 mph, and Troy Melton ...."  

AJ bit his tongue before announcing a number for Melton 

Sports_Freak Grand Master

Sports_Freak

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Posted
On 2/7/2026 at 10:55 AM, Tiger337 said:

If McGonigle is ready, then that changes a lot of things.  I am actually pretty optimistic that he'll hit his way on to the team in Spring training.  I know that Harris would love for him to be ready on opening day because it could mean another draft pick.  

I'm not sure who thinks the draft picks are that important, fans or Harris? The Tigers just gave up a pick when they signed Valdez. Didn't they? 

Sports_Freak Grand Master

Sports_Freak

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, chasfh said:

Tigers beat their 2022 projection by seven games? Well, maybe Baby Doc was a little too hasty giving Al Avila the gate after all ...

🦆🦆🦆

But then we may have been able to enjoy the Nick Maton years.....err.....months. 😅😆🤣🤣

Tiger337 Grand Master

Tiger337

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33 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I'm not sure who thinks the draft picks are that important, fans or Harris? The Tigers just gave up a pick when they signed Valdez. Didn't they? 

He was worth a draft pick.  The draft pick they could potentially get for McGonigle winning would be a better draft pick (right after the first round) versus the one they just gave up (I think after the second round?).  Harris won't bring him up if he's not ready, but if he is ready, I think he'd rather try for the draft pick than delay his service time.  

Tiger337 Grand Master

Tiger337

Posted
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Posted
7 hours ago, chasfh said:

Tigers beat their 2022 projection by seven games? Well, maybe Baby Doc was a little too hasty giving Al Avila the gate after all ...

🦆🦆🦆

Why do you put ducks on every post now?  

Tenacious D Grand Master

Tenacious D

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

He was worth a draft pick.  The draft pick they could potentially get for McGonigle winning would be a better draft pick (right after the first round) versus the one they just gave up (I think after the second round?).  Harris won't bring him up if he's not ready, but if he is ready, I think he'd rather try for the draft pick than delay his service time.  

I read somewhere (maybe here?) that the Tigers would lose their Competitive Balance pick (-69 overall), for signing Valdez.  

However, those picks can be dealt. In that event, the Tigers would lose their 3rd rounder (-94).

If the Tigers could get something of value for their Comp pick, it might be worth dealing it—perhaps as a sweetener in a larger deal.

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